Mega-Thread: Coronavirus Pandemic

[Evil Midnight Bomber]

https://globalnews.ca/news/8790696/d...9-vaccination/

Denmark halting it's Vaccine Program mid-May

Denmark is pausing its COVID-19 vaccination program temporarily.

According to a statement released by the Danish Health Authority Tuesday, the vaccination rate among the Danish population “is sky-high, and the epidemic has reversed.”

“Therefore, the Danish Health and Medicines Authority is now ending the broad vaccination effort against COVID-19 for this season,” the release states in Danish.

The government will no longer be sending out invitations to its citizens for vaccination as of May 15.

“We’re in a good place,” Bolette Søborg, Head of Unit at the Danish Health Authority, says in the statement.

“Spring has come and we have good control of the epidemic, which seems to be waning. The hospitalization numbers are stable, and we also expect them to decline soon. That is why we are rounding out the mass vaccination programme against COVID-19.”

However, Søborg maintains that the Danish government is still recommending COVID-19 vaccination for people that are particularly at risk from the virus.

“This is especially true for people over the age of 40 and for pregnant women … We also continue to recommend that you complete your vaccination course,” Søborg said.

The drive is likely to resume in fall, when the health agency anticipates a rise in COVID-19 cases.

“We plan to reopen the vaccination program in the fall,” Søborg said. “Prior to this, a thorough professional assessment must be made of who and when to vaccinate and with which vaccines. We expect to present a plan for the overall framework for the 2022/23 season before the summer holidays.”

[Forogil]

I noticed something a bit concerning at https://ourworldindata.org/covid-cases - the cases are starting to increase in India again (but at low levels, and lots of cases aren't reported).

Based on vaccination levels (somewhat low, 61%, and not the best vaccines), natural immunity (at least the rest of the population), and lack of change in government policy my guess is simply that the immunity is waning - 5 months after the previous peak began.
That is also consistent with other coronaviruses.

Hopefully there will be fewer deaths this time (they aren't reported accurately either), and it might be that protection against infection will be better after this time and build up more with each infection; since otherwise the peaks will continue twice a year.

[Zantos]

I can't for the life of me figure out why you assume it's being taken less than seriously. But the salient point is that issues with long COVID will decrease over time, regardless.

Uh, the loss of mandates in most countries is the biggest reason. Lack of coverage by most sources now. Here in the US, good luck even seeing a mask. No one is requiring them anymore. So, by all accounts, it is very much so being taken less serious in more then a few places.

As for cherry picking, I looked up the first articles I could find to be frank. Though my own andecote between the flu and covid is that covid seriously travels faster.

[Edge-]

Here in the US, good luck even seeing a mask. No one is requiring them anymore.

Definitely varies by region. My county is seeing a spike after doing well for a while, but even with all the mandates etc. dropped it's still about 50/50 (most store employees are staying masked, and the folks choosing to mask/unmask kinda aren't surprising).

[Zantos]

Definitely varies by region. My county is seeing a spike after doing well for a while, but even with all the mandates etc. dropped it's still about 50/50 (most store employees are staying masked, and the folks choosing to mask/unmask kinda aren't surprising).

I could see that. I see some stores here having them. Most don't anymore. Most people dont wear masks either. Im just glad I got the vaccine. Masks work best when everyone wears them though. The near by big city tried to keep mandates going, but they don't really even do that anymore. Their cases have gone up to.

[PhaelixWW]

Uh, the loss of mandates in most countries is the biggest reason. Lack of coverage by most sources now. Here in the US, good luck even seeing a mask. No one is requiring them anymore. So, by all accounts, it is very much so being taken less serious in more then a few places.

Well, you referenced "figuring it out" as the thing being taken less seriously. To me, that means the scientific community's response, not the government's response, which I would term "employing preventative measures".

So yes, governments don't seem to be taking it as seriously as they should; I agree with you on that.

As for cherry picking, I looked up the first articles I could find to be frank. Though my own andecote between the flu and covid is that covid seriously travels faster.

For now it does. It won't always, which was the point.

It's generally useless to compare a novel SARS-CoV-2 virus with a non-novel influenza virus, because the novel virus has a huge advantage... while it's still novel.

But when comparing the mutation rates in a way that ignores the fact that COVID, as a novel disease, is spreading more quickly through the population, then it shows that influenza mutates more quickly. Eventually, once SARS-CoV-2 is no longer novel, we shouldn't see mutations with the same frequency anymore, because there will be waaaaay fewer infections per year, so the slower mutation rate won't be offset by as high a multiplier.

[Zantos]

Well, you referenced "figuring it out" as the thing being taken less seriously. To me, that means the scientific community's response, not the government's response, which I would term "employing preventative measures".

So yes, governments don't seem to be taking it as seriously as they should; I agree with you on that..

To be fair, you just summed up all of science vs government responses to anything. I am just glad that the science portion seems to be trying to continue vaccine development as well as helping to find a medicine to help those who fall critically ill.

[Forogil]

Some cherry-picking, there.

Other studies put the mutation rate for Influenza A at 7.1e^-6 to 4.5e^-5 and newer tests of some strains even higher by an order of magnitude or more. Most find an average of about 2e^-5.

I just wanted to say that notation just irks me, either write 7.1e-6 or 7.1·10^-6, don't mix the two.

This is because influenza viruses lack the proofreading mechanism that coronaviruses use.

Agreed, but there are some additional facts to consider.

In fiction we have things like X-Men where we associate mutations with über-organism, but in reality most mutations are bad for the organism.

Thus coronaviruses have a proofreading mechanism because it reduces mutations to lower and more healthy level for the virus. If Sars-Cov-2 would be better without the proofreading it would fairly quickly lose the proofreading and mutate more.

More advanced organisms can also vary the mutation rate to target changes where needed, that is used by the human immune system to quickly adapt to viruses - but I'm not sure if a small virus can set up something like that. But clearly coding mutations in the virus will have different effects (generally from bad to worse for the virus) in different parts of the virus, and thus we will see variations in the frequency along the genome.

I mean, it's true now, of course, while SARS-CoV-2 is still relatively novel. But we don't really know whether or not it will be as dangerous once people have built up an immunity over years, like they do with repeated exposure to influenza and the other human coronaviruses.

Yes, and related to that some believe that HCoV-OC43, which is now part of the common cold, caused a pandemic around 1890 when it appeared.

It might be due to frequent exposure when you are young, or it might even be that is proofreading is insufficient and the virus will start decaying over time.

[PACOX]

Noticed a lot of people getting norovirus since masks are no longer needed for travel. Not a good or bad thing just funny. Noro sucks, wash your hands, and you actually have to wash your hands. It drinks hand sanitizer.

[Elegiac]

Today in intersectionality, a study of US undergraduates finds that men who ignore and reject covid-19 safety regulations also are more likely than other men to perpetrate sexual harassment, accept rape myths, and have hostile sexist attitudes.

[Edge-]

https://twitter.com/HeartlandSignal/...49634170195968

In which a sitting US Senator promotes more vaccine misinformation and seems open to the conspiracy theory that the vaccine is causing "vaccine-induced AIDS" which is literally not a thing.

[Edge-]

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news...mber-rcna22105

Happy 1 million official deaths due to covid, day!

Don't worry, it's just the mild flu. It'll go away during the summer. Just drink some bleach and inject some sunshine into your body. It doesn't actually exist and is actually a global hoax. Have you tried horse dewormer yet?

[Rasulis]

How is China's Covid 0 fight coming along?

Well, Shanghai is still on lockdown. Every time they tried to ease up, the number went up. Beijing is a losing fight. Sooner or later, it will share Shanghai's fate. As of 05/03, 43 cities are under full or partial lockdowns or have implemented district-based controls, which involve strict mobility restrictions for local residents. Roughly around 500 million people. Foreign expats are leaving in drove. Not because of Covid, but due to the draconian preventive measures.

Caixin's April composite PMI for China, which includes both manufacturing and services activity, slumped to 37.2 from 43.9 from the previous month.

- - - Updated - - -

We are definitely having our fifth wave here. Case number is up, number of patients with Covid in hospitals is up. However, hospital bed utilization is normal for this time of the year.

For the bad news. The majority (over 80%) of Omicron mortalities in San Francisco were over 75. For the first time since the vaccine was introduced, the mortality rate for the vaccinated was higher than the unvaccinated. Driven by deaths within the elderly population. Keep in mind that the number is still very small in relation to the size of San Francisco elderly population. So, the vaccine did its job.

[Forogil]

How is China's Covid 0 fight coming along?

Well, Shanghai is still on lockdown. Every time they tried to ease up, the number went up. Beijing is a losing fight. Sooner or later, it will share Shanghai's fate.

However, it is still going better than I expected - as the numbers are steady and even possibly slowly slowly declining. But I am not confident they can keep this up for 6 more months to allow Xi to be re-elected.

[Rasulis]

Case is supposedly going down in Shanghai. However, the lockdown is ongoing. If their criteria for easing lockdown is zero covid, Shanghai could be in for a long miserable year.

Beijing has closed gyms and entertainment venues, banned dine-in services at restaurants and shut scores of bus routes and almost 15% of its subway system. Not working. The virus is still spreading.

Cases are up in San Francisco. Most people just shrug their shoulders. The hospitals have not seen Covid death since April 15.

We normally hear a lot from UCSF. So it is nice to hear from SF General Hospital once in awhile, "I work in a hospital. There are very, very low hospitalizations at S.F. General. The degree of severe disease is so low and that is because of immunity," she said. "Right now, we're a highly-vaccinated region, we have treatments for those who are vulnerable, we are in a very fortunate position in the Bay Area," according to Dr. Monica Gandhi.

On a side note. It was cold this weekend. My wife and I went on a bike ride Sunday morning, between the cold air and the 20 - 30 mph wind, our noses were dripping like leaky faucets. I felt a lot better about it after talking to my nephew in Austin where it was in the high 90s. We got to test our brand new heat pump which worked great.

[PACOX]

I think China's strat is nuts but I think people also forget about lag when measuring how effective it is. Anecdotal but I've gone through a few workplace 'lockdowns' and numbers always go up afterwards due to incubation periods. One day everyone is testing negative then isolate. Suddenly the entire facility is positive.

I believe the strategy is mitigation and not total isolation. Shots, screening and accepting the risks where masks aren't applicable, shots, masks when applicable, - like around strangers in a professional setting if the interaction is a one time/infrequent thing.

[Rasulis]

Lots and lots of Covid in San Francisco Bay area. One in thirty asymptomatic UCSF patients tested positive for Covid.

COVID-19 cases have inched up in California since early April, and the greater San Francisco Bay Area is reporting more new cases per day than any other region in the state. Experts are reassuring people that amid the uptick, hospitalizations and the burden of severe disease remain low due to the region's high vaccination rates and infection-acquired immunity from the surge of the omicron variant in winter.

The uptick is pronounced, and many people who avoided the coronavirus for more than two years are becoming infected, but it's not nearly as severe as the winter surge. At UCSF's four hospitals, 13 people were hospitalized with COVID on Monday. During the recent peak in January, 151 people were hospitalized on Jan. 20.

[Edge-]

Lots and lots of Covid in San Francisco Bay area. One in thirty asymptomatic UCSF patients tested positive for Covid.

Yeah, having more friends/family in these parts getting it. But they're either asymptomatic or have fairly mild cases (basically a flu) which is good shit.

Not surprising at this point, masks are increasingly less common (about 40:60 masks vs. unmasked) in my neck of the woods. Won't stop me from continuing to mask up. I fuckin love the anonymity it provides in public. Also I brush my teeth and don't have gross halitosis breath.

[Rasulis]

North Korea suffering from unidentified fever ‘spreading explosively’ as it confirms first ever COVID deaths

North Korea has said an unidentified fever-causing illness has “spread explosively” as the country confirmed its first deaths from COVID-19.

Six people have died after contracting a fever, state-run media agency KCNA said on Friday, one of whom had tested positive for the BA.2 Omicron subvariant.

“A fever whose cause couldn't be identified explosively spread nationwide from late April,” the agency said in an update.

According to the North Korean government, more than 350,000 people had come down with a fever since the end of last month, with 18,000 people reporting symptoms on Thursday alone.

As many as 187,800 people were now in isolation, KCNA reported.

It came after North Korea announced its first ever COVID infections on Thursday — marking the country’s first-ever public admission that COVID has breached its borders — prompting leader Kim Jong Un to order a strict national lockdown.

North Korea population is unvaccinated.

[Forogil]

North Korea suffering from unidentified fever ‘spreading explosively’ as it confirms first ever COVID deaths



North Korea population is unvaccinated.

Yes, they have been offered vaccines through COVAX (and possibly other sources), but declined them.

They also seem to lack testing equipment, so "unidentified fever" is somewhat correct - as they cannot identify the disease. Based on the pre-symptomatic and possible asymptomatic spread of covid-19, how well Omicron spreads, and the lack of basic healthcare it will be bad.
Note that even if N. Korea doesn't have as many elderly as western countries they still have a higher percentage than e.g., India.