Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Shalcker]

If there's one a sector that could have a substantial impact on agriculture, it would be the seed imports of all things, at least as far as yield are concerned.

Russia and China have been trying to reduce their dependency on these aspects, but I assume they are still far from 100% independent.

There are clear problems with seed dependency. We'll see how critical is that going to be - but as far as i'm aware those areas aren't currently sanctioned.

But yields elsewhere will be impacted by fertilizer shortages too.

[Gorsameth]

Declaration of War or any sort of upgrade from "special operation" status would allow Russia to cut the crap internally and proceed with wartime measures.

Meaning refitting/forcing industries to work for the war effort and supply, as well as call in reservists and bringing out more equipment out of stores.

It's not going to change much short term, but it might manifest itself in a more meaningful way in a matter of few months.

Equipment that is likely to be in an even worse state then the stuff they are already using? It will all break down inside a week.

Russia's problem is much more fundamental and deep rooted then just needing more grunts or (old) equipment.

[Saradain]

Ukrainians claim that; and there are videos of truck columns with "z" on them allegedly transporting it.

Here you can see them at work

Never change, Shalcker.

Stolen grain from Ukraine is now russian frontline supply chain, because no one cannot paint "Z" on stolen trucks anyway.

Mobile crematoriums are now mobile bread ovens. Fucking lol.

So, Bucha genocide must now be just a rehearsal of a play and no one actually died, huh?

[Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang]

How does a statistic take into account resident population growth regardless of citizenship while omitting migrants?

Rate of natural increase : is defined as the birth rate minus the death rate of a particular population, over a particular time period. It contrasts to total population change by ignoring net migration. (from wiki)

Net migration rate : is the difference between the number of immigrants (people coming into an area) and the number of emigrants (people leaving an area) throughout the year. (from wiki)

In summary a measured population growth/decline is a combination of those two observed statistics :

Measuring from year to year the number of inhabitants will give you a gross value of the population growth/decline.

Consider the immigrants numbers, substract the emigrants numbers (which could very well be the country's citizen, as experienced by most Eastern European countries), and you have the Net migration rate, which tells you if your country is gaining or losing people from other countries (be them citizens or foreigners).

Substract that from the gross population growth/decline, and you've removed migration as a result. If after that your population still increases it means there's more birth than deaths, and if it decreases there are more deaths than births. The death and birth of both nationals and non-nationals are not differentiated.

While a prolonged influx of young and prime age immigrants will often result in them having children in their new home country. Substracting migration to get the natural increase doesn't mean substracting those children born to immigrants.

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There are clear problems with seed dependency. We'll see how critical is that going to be - but as far as i'm aware those areas aren't currently sanctioned.

But yields elsewhere will be impacted by fertilizer shortages too.

Given its population to arable land ratio, it won't be a major concern for Russia anyway, but would very very much be one for China.

The fertilizer shortages will only compound the global food shortages/price increases, which won't be a direct major problem on the West, but its indirect effects will most likely be as catastrophic as the Arab Spring.

I am getting very bad vibes from Turkey, given the bad to worse trajectory of their economy over the past 4 years, combined with the evolution of their institutions, demographics, military capability and geopolitical adventurism. I am seeing way too many similarities with their model country from about a century ago...

On a longer term basis, as Slavs die out, I am starting to wonder if at some point we'll get a Turk at the head of Russia, one keen on uniting what is now disunited...

[Azadina]

How are your energy bills going?

Given that EU plans to invoke their energy security measures gas and oil deliveries to UK from Norway are at risk.

They're quite fine, considering we don't rape, torture and murder women and children. You can't say the same. Why is raping, torturing and murdering women and children worthwhile exchange for cheap energy? Why?

[Shalcker]

Never change, Shalcker.

Stolen grain from Ukraine is now russian frontline supply chain, because no one cannot paint "Z" on stolen trucks anyway.

If Ukraine wins it can ask for compensation.

If Russia wins it'll have to feed them anyway.

Saving grain from being destroyed in war is net good.

[Saradain]

If Ukraine wins it can ask for compensation.

If Russia wins it'll have to feed them anyway.

Saving grain from being destroyed in war is net good.

Could have just NOT started the war in the first place, huh? You start a war, then you steal food and claim it's for a good cause...

Russia ain't winning btw, and any compensation is not going to come so Russia can enjoy being a pariah for next century.

[PhaelixWW]

Saving grain from being destroyed in war is net good.

I bet the Nazis said something similar when they were plundering priceless historical works of art and bringing them back to Germany.

"Better we steal it than we destroy it" doesn't have the humanitarian sentiment you're pretending it does.

[Dontrike]

There are clear problems with seed dependency. We'll see how critical is that going to be - but as far as i'm aware those areas aren't currently sanctioned.

But yields elsewhere will be impacted by fertilizer shortages too.

When you're banned here do you lose some of your pay or do they put you on a different website to shill some more? Do you get a choice of websites or do they tell you?

[Shalcker]

Could have just NOT started the war in the first place, huh? You start a war, then you steal food and claim it's for a good cause...

War is consequence of many decisions that made perfect sense to both sides - and both sides thought their cause is just.

Failure to resolve this contradiction in other ways is failure of modern political system.

[Saradain]

War is consequence of many decisions that made perfect sense to both sides - and both sides thought their cause is just.

Failure to resolve this contradiction in other ways is failure of modern political system.

War is a consequence of your Putler just deciding Ukraine must die and be wiped out, from existence in history and the world alike. Now at the turning point of history, more and more western countries will join NATO and then you have China east of you - one side exists solely to contain your threat and the other only seeks to exploit your ever-crumbling country.

Works out pretty nicely to me. A damn shame Ukraine or any country have to pay such a price so we can contain your existential threat.

[Corvus]

Even Lukashenko realises things aren't going well, though he still tries to hedge his bets so not to upset Putler too much

[Shalcker]

War is a consequence of your Putler just deciding Ukraine must die and be wiped out, from existence in history and the world alike. Now at the turning point of history, more and more western countries will join NATO and then you have China east of you - one side exists solely to contain your threat and the other only seeks to exploit your ever-crumbling country.

Yes, war is also consequence of comic-book level of political thinking, with heroes and villains in place of strategic interests and imperial power struggles.

Works out pretty nicely to me. A damn shame Ukraine or any country have to pay such a price so we can contain your existential threat.

"Fight Russia to the last Ukrainian in Ukraine so that West doesn't have to fight Russia elsewhere".

"Yes, Ukrainians will suffer, but that is a sacrifice West is willing to make".

[Gabriel]

Yes, war is also consequence of comic-book level of political thinking, with heroes and villains in place of strategic interests and imperial power struggles.

"Fight Russia to the last Ukrainian in Ukraine so that West doesn't have to fight Russia elsewhere".

"Yes, Ukrainians will suffer, but that is a sacrifice West is willing to make".

Mind telling me who from west is forcing Ukraine to fight russia?

[Saradain]

Yes, war is also consequence of comic-book level of political thinking, with heroes and villains in place of strategic interests and imperial power struggles.

"Fight Russia to the last Ukrainian in Ukraine so that West doesn't have to fight Russia elsewhere".

"Yes, Ukrainians will suffer, but that is a sacrifice West is willing to make".

Nope, didn't say that. Just you trying desperately act like the good guy when in reality your country is purest evil like last seen in WW2.

Right now it's looking like russians are running out of meat shields so you desperately have to recruit random syrians to die for you

Almost eerie to think about that Finland wouldn't even need to join NATO at this point, russian army is beyond salvaging so just beating the shit out of your merry band of bandits, rapists, murderers, thieves would be easy peasy. But in the other hand, to ensure not a single actual human (and not orc) person would ever have to experience what your Isengard army is doing...

[Iphie]

Even Lukashenko realises things aren't going well, though he still tries to hedge his bets so not to upset Putler too much

When you start to lose Belarus it may be time to rethink..

Here's a summary from AP:

https://apnews.com/article/russia-uk...24883705684b7f

Lukashenko also said it would be “unacceptable” to use nuclear weapons, but he couldn’t say if Russia has such plans.

“Not only is the use of nuclear weapons unacceptable because it’s right next to us — we are not across the ocean like the United States. It is also unacceptable because it might knock our terrestrial ball flying off the orbit to who knows where,” Lukashenko said.

Ever the pragmatist.

[Shalcker]

Mind telling me who from west is forcing Ukraine to fight russia?

Even willing sacrifices are still sacrifices.

West is feeding into their false sense of superiority and delusions of Ukrainian grandeur.

[Twdft]

War is consequence of many decisions that made perfect sense to both sides - and both sides thought their cause is just.

Failure to resolve this contradiction in other ways is failure of modern political system.

War doesn't happen naturally as a consequence of some series of events. This war happened because Vladolf Putler gave the order to invade Ukraine.

ruSSia could have just not invaded.

[Gabriel]

Even willing sacrifices are still sacrifices.

West is feeding into their false sense of superiority and delusions of Ukrainian grandeur.

So the West should let Ukraine be conquered by russia just so there would be less war?

[Skulltaker]

West is feeding into their false sense of superiority and delusions of Ukrainian grandeur.

Luckily, Russia only needs Russia to feed Russia's false sense of superiority and delusions of Russian grandeur. This army is so terrible that it could invade an empty town and still amass hundreds of casulties.

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So the West should let Ukraine be conquered by russia just so there would be less war?

Russia'd still lose thousands even if no-one fought back.