Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Dadwen]

Yeah, while there is a negative zero percent chance the world would sit back and watch that happen, I am morbidly curous in a What If... kind of way.

But even before NATO, the US and EU would have showed up in full military force if Russia invaded Finland, possibly batting cleanup. Russia invading Ukraine, Georgia, Belarus, etc. is something the world has proven they're willing to accept, but Putin attacking Finland would be seen as actual expansion and a 21st century Hitler move.

Didn't UK and Finland just put together a defense agreement to hold over till they Join?

[Gorsameth]

Didn't UK and Finland just put together a defense agreement to hold over till they Join?

I believe both Finland and Sweden are already part of the EU mutual defence treaty. Since the UK left the EU they are no longer a part of that treaty, so them signing another defence treaty is just continuing business as it was before Brexit.

[Breccia]

I just don't even want to think about it.

That's fair.

Speaking of things that suck, Russians have been "improving" their "state of the art" military hardware with parts from dishwashers and refridgerators.

No, really.

Our approach was to deny Russia technology -- technology that would cripple their ability to continue a military operation. And that is exactly what we're doing.

-- Biden's Commerce Secretary

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Didn't UK and Finland just put together a defense agreement to hold over till they Join?

I believe both Finland and Sweden are already part of the EU mutual defence treaty.

I believe so too, but it would also be akin to Russia invading Canada. Defense pact or not, if Russia invaded Canada, the rest of the world would just empty their entire magazine into Russia. Russia's invasion of Canada, a generally helpful ally to most of the world, would be seen as intolerable aggression and would not be left like WWII's Poland.

[Cynep]

This is from official Russian news:

"We hope that after our special military operation is completed and all of the set tasks within its frames are reached, it would help to stop West’s attempts to undermine the international law and to halt its blunt violations of the UN Charter provisions, including the principle of the sovereign rights of countries, and will force the West to stop promoting the so-called unipolar world dominated by the United States and its allies," Lavrov said at a news conference following his meeting with Foreign Minister of Oman Sayyid Badr Albusaidi in Oman capital city of Muscat.

To Lavrov, "sovereign rights of countries" means Russia can invade Ukraine and annex a part of it, and should be allowed to do so. How do you negotiate with that? ...

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Again zero evidence that it's true, domestic issues like abortion and the economy drive votes not hurting Russia. Biden's temporary bump in the poll was just that temporary, abortion may give him a boost but Russia's effect may as well be zero. That's because when it comes to foreign policy both political parties are nearly identical and last but not least if it was hurtful Trump would have received less votes not more in the last election.

Zero evidence that Russia assisted Trump in his 2016 election?
Zero evidence that Trump was more friendly to Russia than any president before or after?
Zero evidence that Russia views Trump as their friend?



Okay then. I rest my case. Let the jury decide if you're guilty. And you still have it backwards: hurting Russia hurts Trump. Also it's two birds with one stone because dismantling Russia unquestionably benefits USA regardless of domestic stuff.

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Out of curiosity, and to see if I'm getting the russian mindset, getting beat by Ukraine would be weakness, yes? But would escalating also be seen as weakness? I mean can't beat Ukraine without escalation so how strong is this leader then, kinda thing? Doesn't he sooner or later end up in a situation where he will be perceived as weak no matter what he does?

Yes you're right, Putin is screwed either way with no dignified way out, and in best case for him he will merely lose 2024 elections. This is something several posters here including me are saying for 2 months now: Russia has lost already, the question is how long until this ends and how much Russia will have to lose because of this blunder.

[Dadwen]

I believe both Finland and Sweden are already part of the EU mutual defence treaty. Since the UK left the EU they are no longer a part of that treaty, so them signing another defence treaty is just continuing business as it was before Brexit.

Ya didn't take into account Brexit, explains why just seen the UK news on the defense pack.

[Cynep]

In response to the highlighted, here's a thought for you: USSR was an empire, RF is not really. The sooner Russians understand where their place is, and start trying to compete with Canada instead of USA, the better for Russians and for everyone else.

Or even better, coexist and cooperate with the rest of the world. But that is equally unlikely, the inferiority complex and dreams of the "glory days" that never really existed are too strong.

Forgot to answer this one: of course I meant peaceful friendly competition. Canada is a wealthy nation that is regarded positively across the world. If Russia worked towards that status instead of striving to become a discount USA with all their invading other countries, that would be great.

[Gaidax]

Putin is screwed either way with no dignified way out, and in best case for him he will merely lose 2024 elections.

"Elections".

Putin will be retired the same way Nazarbayev did and that would be his best case scenario, with big parades and bullshit title/honorary position and then few years down the road he will get told to shut the fuck up if he wants him and his relatives to live in peace like Gorbachev/Yeltzin did.

I don't know if he would even run for 2024 and instead prefer to make an exit and cash out, before he gets served some polonium tea himself.

[Shrouded]

Forgot to answer this one: of course I meant peaceful friendly competition. Canada is a wealthy nation that is regarded positively across the world. If Russia worked towards that status instead of striving to become a discount USA with all their invading other countries, that would be great.

Yes I understood, sorry if I wasn't clear.

I just think their inferiority complex makes that position impossible for them to swallow.

[Kallisto]

Forgot to answer this one: of course I meant peaceful friendly competition. Canada is a wealthy nation that is regarded positively across the world. If Russia worked towards that status instead of striving to become a discount USA with all their invading other countries, that would be great.

Plus with it being the largest nation in the region it would still have a soft power influence over many former soviet states.

[zorkuus]

Forgot to answer this one: of course I meant peaceful friendly competition. Canada is a wealthy nation that is regarded positively across the world. If Russia worked towards that status instead of striving to become a discount USA with all their invading other countries, that would be great.

But that would mean they would have to give up their gargantuan corruption. I don't think the people at the top would be so keen on that. they would rather see the rest of russia dirt poor aslong as they remain filthy rich.

[PhaelixWW]

CNN reports that Ukraine may have tagged another ship near Snake Island.

This time, it's the Vsevolod Bobrov, a ~300 foot long logistics ship that was only commissioned about half a year ago. Reports of a massive fire and crew evacuation, but it didn't sink, so it was towed back to Sevastopol.

[Edge-]

but it didn't sink, so it was towed back to Sevastopol.

Yet. Didn't the Moskva "sink while being towed back"?

[Shrouded]

Yet. Didn't the Moskva "sink while being towed back"?

Don't forget it was struck by a storm equipped with stealth technology that no one saw, heard or picked up on satellites. You can't really predict that.

[PhaelixWW]

Yet. Didn't the Moskva "sink while being towed back"?

I think this one is already back in Sevastopol, though.


Also, another "mysterious" fire at a fuel/oil depot in Belgorod yesterday.

[Biglog]

Just to clarify, the Moskva is *not* in Sevastopol. It sank and was lost quite some time ago while being towed there due to damage and never made it. It is very much underwater.

Not sure what Russia is thinking with it's threats vs. Finland and Sweden either. Russia has had more than it's hands full in Ukraine, and Finland and Sweden are a much more formidably armed opponent. Finland has literally been preparing for a Soviet/Russian invasion for 75 years. And they have the ability to strike back in Russia proper.

[PhaelixWW]

Just to clarify, the Moskva is *not* in Sevastopol. It sank and was lost quite some time ago while being towed there due to damage and never made it. It is very much underwater.

I think you misread something.

[Gorsameth]

Just to clarify, the Moskva is *not* in Sevastopol. It sank and was lost quite some time ago while being towed there due to damage and never made it. It is very much underwater.

Not sure what Russia is thinking with it's threats vs. Finland and Sweden either. Russia has had more than it's hands full in Ukraine, and Finland and Sweden are a much more formidably armed opponent. Finland has literally been preparing for a Soviet/Russian invasion for 75 years. And they have the ability to strike back in Russia proper.

Its a powerless bully still trying to pretend he is tough by throwing insults across the playground, desperately hoping no one has to courage or interest to walk over and actually challenge him.

[dextersmith]

Yes you're right, Putin is screwed either way with no dignified way out, and in best case for him he will merely lose 2024 elections. This is something several posters here including me are saying for 2 months now: Russia has lost already, the question is how long until this ends and how much Russia will have to lose because of this blunder.

They're going to have an election? I thought Putin declared himself God-king forever. Not kidding.

[PhaelixWW]

They're going to have an election? I thought Putin declared himself God-king forever. Not kidding.

No, he just keeps passing laws that enable him to ignore previous term limits.

[DarkTZeratul]

No, he just keeps passing laws that enable him to ignore previous term limits.

To-may-to, to-mah-to, really.