Monkeypox!

[Forogil]

Seems that people are getting twitchy about new disease outbreaks and we now have Monkeypox in parts of Europe and N. America with local transmissions.

Media is starting to have stories about it - expect more of them, but it doesn't seem likely to get out of hand - so no need to panic (yet)!

https://www.who.int/emergencies/dise...em/2022-DON383
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/news-e...k-and-portugal
https://www.cdc.gov/poxvirus/monkeyp...k/current.html

The CFR is somewhere between 1% and 10% in Africa and the current outbreaks seems to be primarily among men who have sex with men (it is not confirmed that it is transmitted sexually - it wasn't before), and in previous outbreaks it has only spread moderately - the limited spread means it will hopefully not develop like covid-19, and pox-vaccines that offer some protection are already available in case that happens.

The animal reservoir doesn't seem to be monkeys - despite the name, but rodents like rats.

[Iain]

The WHO is so much better at fighting these type of diseases than they are at fighting airborne respiratory diseases. This is where measures like quarantine and social distancing and eve contact-tracing work really well, as they've shown with the two ebola outbreaks.

[s_bushido]

as they've shown with the two ebola outbreaks.

As far as I know, ebola leads to smaller outbreaks in part because it's so deadly. It kills people before they have the chance to infect very many others.

[Iain]

Yes, a short incubation time, with debilitating symptoms drastically reduces the chance for the virus to spread. But that also means that immediate intervention prevents ebola spreading in dense areas. People were already testing positive in New York City at the time, the WHO intervened effectively here.

[hellhamster]

I for one cannot wait what's on the next episode of Life in the 21st century! Covid, monkeypox, hyperinflation, economic depressions, food shortages, water shortages, oil shortages, world war 3, nuclear fallout, earthquakes, climate change, extreme weather conditions, meteorites, supervolcanoes, gamma ray bursts from outer space, hyperoxigenation, hypoxia, black holes forming next to earth, reversal of earth polarity, massive electromagnetic storms, tsunamis, gigantic solar flares, zombie outbreaks, reemergence of dinosaurs, sharks becoming hyperintelligent and deciding they've had enough of humanity.

What a time to be alive!

[Shadowferal]

"Interesting times!"
...ugh

[PC2]

Honestly it seems like we can't relax on the virus issue, we just have to keep finding the cures until we have a cure for every kind of virus there can be. Hopefully by the year 2100 or 2200 there is some kind of universal vaccine that protects us from almost everything, that'd be awesome.

[Unlimited Power]

Honestly it seems like we can't relax on the virus issue, we just have to keep finding the cures until we have a cure for every kind of virus there can be. Hopefully by the year 2100 or 2200 there is some kind of universal vaccine that protects us from almost everything, that'd be awesome.

That's not really how viruses work. Even COVID-19 had quite a few different strands, and the common flu needs a new vaccine for every yearly strand.

New viruses will always develop, mutate and adapt, and all humanity can do is adapt in turn.

[PC2]

Even COVID-19 had quite a few different strands, and the common flu needs a new vaccine for every yearly strand.

Yeah we keep updating and improving our protocols, treatments, and vaccines. Until we have zero cases or zero mortality.

New viruses will always develop, mutate and adapt, and all humanity can do is adapt in turn.

Not "always" because there is a limited amount of gene combos that a virus can have which puts an upper limit on its complexity and limits its functionality.

[Magical Mudcrab]

Not "always" because there is a limited amount of gene combos that a virus can have which puts an upper limit on its complexity and limits its functionality.

[strike]Let's do a fun calculation to describe how silly this statement is. Viruses can have as many as 200 genes. Each gene can be one of four possible states: A (Adenine), C (Cytosine), T (Thymine), and G (Guanine). Each gene has a complimentary gene that it must be paired with (A and T, C and G), so we're only going to be concerned about the 100 genes per side for a the double helix of DNA, as we'll assume they'll always be paired with their complimentary gene.[/strike]

Now the question is: how many combinations exist for 100 genes in 4 possible states? Well, let's consider the number of possible arrangements there are. Typically, this is done in the context of a deck of cards. When you "shuffle" your deck, there is 52! possible arrangements of those cards (i.e.: 52 * 51 * 50 * ... * 1); however, we can't just do that, as we are dealing with a situation in which there is selection from one of those 4 states, with replacement, 100 times. Therefore, gene 1 can be 1 of 4 states, gene 2 can be 1 of 4 states, gene 3 can be 1 of 4 states, etc., all the way to gene 100. Therefore, we will have 4^100 possible combinations of genes, or 1.606938e+60.

For more clarity, that is roughly:
1,606,938,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000, or 1.6 novendecillion.

There are more possible gene combinations for a virus than there are gains of sand on earth.
There are more possible gene combinations for a virus than there are stars in the observable universe.
There are more possible gene combinations for a virus than there are planets in the observable universe.

The "limit" is so obscenely large that regarding it as a limit has no value in any sense.

- - - Updated - - -

While the process is correct, it appears my estimate underestimated the amount by quite a bit due to limits of my knowledge of biology, specifically the number of base pairs. Thanks to @Ripster42 for correcting me regarding the actual number.

ATCG are bases, not genes. Genes are made up of many bases. You are massively underestimating the actual number. The largest known viral genome is more than 1.2 million base pairs. So instead of using 100 with 4 possible states, it's 1,259,197 with 4 possible states.

Edit: In case I wasn't clear, the resulting number invokes "heat death of the universe" types of scale.

The actual number of base pairs is 1,259,197. As much as I would like to give everyone the resultant number, including all following zeroes, of 4^1,259,197, we have a slight problem. The actual value is 1.36426958239644449273119680963328799461090420396553159984 × 10^758112 (WolframAlpha). When printed out, the length of the resulting number is 758,113 decimal digits, up from the previous 61 decimal digits of the previous number. This value is so large that most calculators will either throw an error or will provide an Infinity value.

For reference to how big this number is:
The single largest structure in our universe is the Hercules-Corona Borealis Great Wall, which is 10 billion light-years in length. When converted to millimeters, it is 9.4607304726 × 10^28 mm.
If you converted the 46.508 billion light years radius of the universe to millimeters, you would get a value of approximately 4.39999652819 × 10^29.
There is roughly only 3.28 × 10^80 particles in the observable universe.

The size of this number is obscene.

[PC2]

Therefore, we will have 4^100 possible combinations of genes, or 1.606938e+60.

For more clarity, that is roughly:
1,606,938,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000, or 1.6 novendecillion.

lol I never said it would be easy to figure out how to prevent or beat them all(the ones relevant to humans). I was trying to be optimistic by setting the goal in the 22nd century... Of course microbiologists don't need to understand them all, only the most dangerous subset of them which either have the potential to evolve in nature or could be created by an evil biologist in the future.

[Ripster42]

Let's do a fun calculation to describe how silly this statement is. Viruses can have as many as 200 genes. Each gene can be one of four possible states: A (Adenine), C (Cytosine), T (Thymine), and G (Guanine). Each gene has a complimentary gene that it must be paired with (A and T, C and G), so we're only going to be concerned about the 100 genes per side for a the double helix of DNA, as we'll assume they'll always be paired with their complimentary gene.
.

ATCG are bases, not genes. Genes are made up of many bases. You are massively underestimating the actual number. The largest known viral genome is more than 1.2 million base pairs. So instead of using 100 with 4 possible states, it's 1,259,197 with 4 possible states.

Edit: In case I wasn't clear, the resulting number invokes "heat death of the universe" types of scale.

[Magical Mudcrab]

ATCG are bases, not genes. Genes are made up of many bases. You are massively underestimating the actual number. The largest known viral genome is more than 1.2 million base pairs. So instead of using 100 with 4 possible states, it's 1,259,197 with 4 possible states.

Edit: In case I wasn't clear, the resulting number invokes "heat death of the universe" types of scale.

Ah, thanks for letting me know. I'll update the original post with this information.

[Ripster42]

Ah, thanks for letting me know. I'll update the original post with this information.

When you do, compare it to how many particles exist in the solar system. I'm curious how large the repository you'd need to encode that amount of data, even if you could somehow code 1 base per particle.

Edit: So uh, yeah, tried to use the google calculator to do 4^1259197, and just got "infinity" back as the answer. I know that's not the answer, but it's about what I expected: heat death of the universe types of scale.

Double Edit:

The actual number of base pairs is 1,259,197. As much as I would like to give everyone the resultant number, including all following zeroes, of 4^1,259,197, we have a slight problem. The actual value is 1.36426958239644449273119680963328799461090420396553159984 × 10^758112
There is roughly only 3.28 × 10^80 particles in the observable universe.

The size of this number is obscene.

So you'd need a data repository that has more particles than exist in the universe. We can now confidently say that PC is full of shit (as usual) because it is literally impossible to do.

[PC2]

When you do, compare it to how many particles exist in the solar system. I'm curious how large the repository you'd need to encode that amount of data, even if you could somehow code 1 base per particle.

Edit: So uh, yeah, tried to use the google calculator to do 4^1259197, and just got "infinity" back as the answer. I know that's not the answer, but it's about what I expected: heat death of the universe types of scale.

Double Edit:

So you'd need a data repository that has more particles than exist in the universe. We can now confidently say that PC is full of shit (as usual) because it is literally impossible to do.

But are you trying to imply that there will eventually be a deadly virus we can't handle? There could be 10^9999999999 unique viruses and I still won't believe there's one that humans can't beat or prevent.

[unfilteredJW]

But are you trying to imply that there will eventually be a deadly virus we can't handle? There could be 10^9999999999 unique viruses and I still won't believe there's one that humans can't beat or prevent.

That’s because you think science is magic.

[Ripster42]

But are you trying to imply that there will eventually be a deadly virus we can't handle? There could be 9^9999999999 unique viruses and I still won't believe there's one that humans can't beat or prevent.

Y
Not "always" because there is a limited amount of gene combos that a virus can have which puts an upper limit on its complexity and limits its functionality.

I'm implying you have no idea wtf you're talking about, and that further discussion with you on any scientific topic is pointless because of your profound ignorance of both how the process of science happens, as well as the details of any specific subject.

[Flame6]

I put my head in the sand with crap like this. Nothing I can do about it yet. WHen it becomes a problem, i'll spend 5 minutes to find a real source and educate myself. Otherwise its a silly as stressing over N. Korea having nukes. Nothing I can do about it.

[PC2]

I'm implying you have no idea wtf you're talking about, and that further discussion with you on any scientific topic is pointless because of your profound ignorance of both how the process of science happens, as well as the details of any specific subject.

How is this relevant to the topic? If you think I'm ignorant of something then just say what it is.

[Shadowferal]

How is this relevant to the topic? If you think I'm ignorant of something then just say what it is.

No "if" here. Your inability to learn is hampered by your complete refusal to understand how you're always wrong.