Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Iphie]

A train load of Russian T62M tanks have been seen in occupied Melitopol in Ukraine.

They might be sending them to the separatists, but, impossible as it seems, they do seem to be destined for the war.

I guess that's why they needed to scrap the upper age limit for signing up with the army, so they didn't need to train the crew.

Meanwhile there seems to be no love lost between the separatist areas.

[PhaelixWW]

I guess that's why they needed to scrap the upper age limit for signing up with the army, so they didn't need to train the crew.

Meanwhile there seems to be no love lost between the separatist areas.

I do wonder if it also has to do with the fact that Russia is simply losing a whole bunch of their young male population at a time when their population is already declining. Better to lose the men who have had a chance to procreate, I guess.

Besides, I'm not sure the under-20 male crowd actually make the best soldiers, these days.

[Kallisto]

I guess that's why they needed to scrap the upper age limit for signing up with the army, so they didn't need to train the crew.

Meanwhile there seems to be no love lost between the separatist areas.

I wonder if this is staged so they can go. "Look see totally independent from Russia, we hate those guys in Luhansk too."

[Cynep]

There are two views about how strong or weak this conflicts makes Russia look

1. It's obviously the most prominent in the West and on this forum which is the fact that Russia has performed poorly in Ukraine.

2. The other view is that everybody knows that this conflict has become a proxy war between NATO and Russia. The Western politicians especially wanted to make it Vietnam 2.0 for Putin. Ukraine got tremendous military and financial aid and training from the NATO/EU to the point that stock levels of certain weaponry started depleting. Nevertheless, despite all the aid to Ukraine and anti-Russia sanctions, Russia has slowly advanced to their goals in Ukraine and its economy did not crumble as many have expected.

The fact that NATO and EU couldn't break Russia with all the sanctions and military aid to Ukraine gives good PR opticals for Russia.

It's way too soon to say that. Even the guy who in his every prediction includes "Crimea goes to Russia 100%, done deal", also (correctly) says sanctions won't make Russia crumble in one year. It's only been 3 months. With Lend-Lease, Ukrainian military victory looks much more likely than I predicted 2 months ago, but it will take time. Still, if you'll ever have grandchildren, they will learn at school "Ukraine defeated Russia in the war of 2014-2023. (or even 2024)" And Western help will be covered in more advanced study of that war.

[Corvus]

I wonder if this is staged so they can go. "Look see totally independent from Russia, we hate those guys in Luhansk too."

Doesn't matter what they want - Russia will expend them like the cannon fodder they are and then take over (or try) their lands.

[DarkTZeratul]

2. The other view is that everybody knows that this conflict has become a proxy war between NATO and Russia. The Western politicians especially wanted to make it Vietnam 2.0 for Putin. Ukraine got tremendous military and financial aid and training from the NATO/EU to the point that stock levels of certain weaponry started depleting. Nevertheless, despite all the aid to Ukraine and anti-Russia sanctions, Russia has slowly advanced to their goals in Ukraine and its economy did not crumble as many have expected.

The fact that NATO and EU couldn't break Russia with all the sanctions and military aid to Ukraine gives good PR opticals for Russia.

Need I remind you that *Russia* attacked *Ukraine*? They're the only ones who think it's a proxy war.

[Corvus]

Speaking of the separatists, it seems that Russian propaganda may be backfiring slightly with regards to them. Russian milbloggers are now complaining about the treatment they are getting, about the lack of equipment and even lack of pay they are receiving. After all, Russian propaganda this whole time has been the war was started to protect the people of Donbas. Putin only used them as an excuse and is treating them as such, but that stands in opposition to the ongoing propaganda, so to treat them as badly are they are while at the same time saying the war is to protect them is causing issues with the Russian milbloggers.

[Flarelaine]

Ukrainian secret service has "confirmed" that Putin has cancer, take that as you will.

Putin does not have cancer. Putin is cancer.

[Vampiregenesis]

The news lately spam that Donbas will be lost and that Ukraine will enter in EU but not Nato, they seem to set the ground for such deal. I wonder if the Russians will accept this deal or try to go further than Donbas and reinforce further their army. I personally think that the west is very confident with such deal because something bigger is involved, like "accept this deal or ww3"

[Barzotti]

The news lately spam that Donbas will be lost and that Ukraine will enter in EU but not Nato, they seem to set the ground for such deal. I wonder if the Russians will accept this deal or try to go further than Donbas and reinforce further their army. I personally think that the west is very confident with such deal because something bigger is involved, like "accept this deal or ww3"

There is zero chance of Ukraine getting into the EU until ten-fifteen years at least.

[Gorsameth]

The news lately spam that Donbas will be lost and that Ukraine will enter in EU but not Nato, they seem to set the ground for such deal. I wonder if the Russians will accept this deal or try to go further than Donbas and reinforce further their army. I personally think that the west is very confident with such deal because something bigger is involved, like "accept this deal or ww3"

I think Russia would settle for getting Donbas and their land bridge to Crimea.

But what Russia would accept is not relevant when Ukraine has no reason to accept anything less what they had before the invasion started. The long term conflict favours them, not Russia.

[Slant]

The news lately spam that Donbas will be lost and that Ukraine will enter in EU but not Nato, they seem to set the ground for such deal. I wonder if the Russians will accept this deal or try to go further than Donbas and reinforce further their army. I personally think that the west is very confident with such deal because something bigger is involved, like "accept this deal or ww3"

The news have no clue and aren't thinking clearly.

Here's the inside scoop of how it's going to go down: The Ukraine will retake everything. And they will join whatever organisation they want to join. They are WINNING this war.

Russia's cooperation is not needed for anything. There is nothing Russia could negotiate with.

Russia "accepting the deal" is irrelevant. Russian opinion is insignificant to the outcome to all those decisions.

[Crispin]

The news lately spam that Donbas will be lost and that Ukraine will enter in EU but not Nato, they seem to set the ground for such deal. I wonder if the Russians will accept this deal or try to go further than Donbas and reinforce further their army. I personally think that the west is very confident with such deal because something bigger is involved, like "accept this deal or ww3"

As someone else wrote, Ukranian EU membership is decades down the road.

[Gaidax]

People are funny if they think Ukraine will be in EU soon - EU can't even agree on a bloody oil embargo and you imagine they would agree to that.

Best case scenario for Ukraine in EU would be something akin to Putin kicking the bucked, current Russian regime collapsing and complete 180 degrees turnaround towards West by subsequent whoever it will be their next Warchief there. Then - maybe Ukraine will be in EU until 2030.

Ukraine itself has a long shopping list of what it would need to do to be a member as well, after all it's still an ex-Soviet republic with a big corruption problem of its own. They will need a good half a decade to even begin cleaning that shit up.

---

As for what is happening now - it is clear that Russia will probably grab another town or two, then dig in and declare "mission accomplished". There is maybe a chance for Ukraine to try and do a counterattack on some positions somewhere in July/August so they might take some areas back. And then it will be a simmering war of attrition for a year or two until Putin croaks and maybe some less checky leadership in Russia emerges.

[Forogil]

People are funny if they think Ukraine will be in EU soon - EU can't even agree on a bloody oil embargo and you imagine they would agree to that.

True, but if we look at gas it's stranger; as Ukraine still hasn't cut off export of Russian gas through Ukraine.

Basically too many rely on the energy flowing from Russia to EU.

[Gaidax]

True, but if we look at gas it's stranger; as Ukraine still hasn't cut off export of Russian gas through Ukraine.

Basically too many rely on the energy flowing from Russia to EU.

Very likely due to EU/West pressure.

After all, war is bad and all, but the spice must flow.

[jonnysensible]

russians executing ukranians they capture, loads of photos from lyman of ukranians with hands tied behind their backs being executed. Fucking russian pigs

[zealo]

People are funny if they think Ukraine will be in EU soon - EU can't even agree on a bloody oil embargo and you imagine they would agree to that.

Best case scenario for Ukraine in EU would be something akin to Putin kicking the bucked, current Russian regime collapsing and complete 180 degrees turnaround towards West by subsequent whoever it will be their next Warchief there. Then - maybe Ukraine will be in EU until 2030.

Ukraine itself has a long shopping list of what it would need to do to be a member as well, after all it's still an ex-Soviet republic with a big corruption problem of its own. They will need a good half a decade to even begin cleaning that shit up.

---

As for what is happening now - it is clear that Russia will probably grab another town or two, then dig in and declare "mission accomplished". There is maybe a chance for Ukraine to try and do a counterattack on some positions somewhere in July/August so they might take some areas back. And then it will be a simmering war of attrition for a year or two until Putin croaks and maybe some less checky leadership in Russia emerges.

People thinking Ukraine should be fast-tracked inside the EU fundamentally misunderstand what the EU is about, really.

While there is a mutual defense clause (of which there can be arguments held about just what that means, too), the EU isn't a military alliance in it's primary purpose, it needs to be real careful about inviting nations still grappling with a ton of domestic corruption before they're ready, dealing with Hungary and Poland is already pushing it in areas like rule of law, and displays the EU in it's current form isn't equipped to handle democratic backsliding from states once they have become full members.

[Mamut]

Ukrainian secret service has "confirmed" that Putin has cancer, take that as you will.

Does this even matter? Will anything change when he will be replaced? I think Russia is going to be Russia, they will not admit that Putin was the bad guy but instead there will be propaganda how they liberate world from nazis and NATO just signed by different leader and thats all.

[Azadina]

People thinking Ukraine should be fast-tracked inside the EU fundamentally misunderstand what the EU is about, really.

While there is a mutual defense clause (of which there can be arguments held about just what that means, too), the EU isn't a military alliance in it's primary purpose, it needs to be real careful about inviting nations still grappling with a ton of domestic corruption before they're ready, dealing with Hungary and Poland is already pushing it in areas like rule of law, and displays the EU in it's current form isn't equipped to handle democratic backsliding from states once they have become full members.

Neither is NATO tbh. Turkey has shown that plenty of times along the years.