Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Cynep]

But non-instant win is still a win.

I have a somber question for you, and for any patriotic Russian who is reading this.

It took a full military defeat and an occupation for Nazi Germany to come to their senses, snap out of Nazism and turn into a peaceful prosperous country. Similar story for Japan. But because of MAD, the worst military outcome for Russia can be "we fought entire West and it ended in a draw". So how can Russian people snap out of "we're orcs from Mordor" Nazi mindset y'all are now? A powerful top-to-bottom reformer ala Gorbachov could possibly do it, but he doesn't exist right now, and how would he (or she) get into power? Looks grim to me.

[Kaleredar]

I have a somber question for you, and for any patriotic Russian who is reading this.

It took a full military defeat and an occupation for Nazi Germany to come to their senses, snap out of Nazism and turn into a peaceful prosperous country. Similar story for Japan. But because of MAD, the worst military outcome for Russia can be "we fought entire West and it ended in a draw". So how can Russian people snap out of "we're orcs from Mordor" Nazi mindset y'all are now? A powerful top-to-bottom reformer ala Gorbachov could possibly do it, but he doesn't exist right now, and how would he (or she) get into power? Looks grim to me.

I don't normally post memes, but this is relevant:

[MCMLXXXII]

I don't normally post memes, but this is relevant:

Now I finally have a face with all that drivel Shillcker's posting.

[postman1782]

I'm here exactly to see the other side.

No you aren't, you are here to stir the pot with Russian propaganda and bullshit.

[Shalcker]

I have a somber question for you, and for any patriotic Russian who is reading this.

It took a full military defeat and an occupation for Nazi Germany to come to their senses, snap out of Nazism and turn into a peaceful prosperous country. Similar story for Japan. But because of MAD, the worst military outcome for Russia can be "we fought entire West and it ended in a draw". So how can Russian people snap out of "we're orcs from Mordor" Nazi mindset y'all are now? A powerful top-to-bottom reformer ala Gorbachov could possibly do it, but he doesn't exist right now, and how would he (or she) get into power? Looks grim to me.

The thing is - when West "reformed" Japan and Germany into democracies it poured unimaginable by modern standards economic preferences for them to that end.
And that worked with Russia too - as long as Russia had seen economic benefits from "being seen as more democratic" it held on to trappings of democracy, opposition and all. "Fake it till you make it" strategy is perfectly fine if played long enough - it worked for plenty of Western and Asian countries that simply switch to more democratic arrangements once last dictator/junta dies or retires.
But then West went with more antagonistic "West or Russia" binary choices for Ukraine rather then win-win arrangements, ramped up sanctions, and this calculation stopped making any sense.

It is impossible to reform great powers from outside without defeat that can impose conditions on them. And MAD makes such defeat impossible in turn.

So, yeah, you got to wait for reformer and sprinkle a lot of favors for decades before things turn around; negative sanctions simply never work if target isn't extremely eager to return to your "civilized family".

So the only outcome in Ukraine is going to be conditions imposed upon it. And given Ukrainian losses - unless you see how it can turn things around - those conditions will get worse with each passing day as war continues.

[Corvus]

It was Russia that decided it was either Russia or the West for Ukraine, so much so they started a war over it.

[Shalcker]

It was Russia that decided it was either Russia or the West for Ukraine, so much so they started a war over it.

Russia called for tripartite talks over Association Agreement that sparked Maidan the entire time; it was EU that refused them.

[Dontrike]

Russia called for tripartite talks over Association Agreement that sparked Maidan the entire time; it was EU that refused them.

"Guys, Putin totally wanted to talk and not go to war. It's really your fault." Do you get tired of saying these things or is that troll farm paycheck just too good to pass up?

[Shalcker]

You mean that resolution literally only 5 countries voted against? Sure.

No, i mean specifically Western sanctions against Russia - especially seizure of Central Bank assets.

Which was done without any kind of UN vote.

The One China policy is a propagandistic article of faith having to do with perceptions of legitimacy, not a mission statement. There is no actual drive to reclaim Taiwan nor does China have the capacity to do so.

We'll see soon enough.

Meanwhile China meets banks to discuss protecting assets from US sanctions and flies strategic bombers in joint mission with Russia over Pacific.

Nah, they wouldn't; they kind of enjoy having ready access to the high quality semiconductors the Republic of China provides them.

Same could be said about Russia; a lot of things override "modern conveniences", and "territorial integrity" (however China defines it) usually comes on top over that.

As example see Ukraine being unwilling to let go of this dream right this very moment.

Considering less than half of the US' consumption alone is used for petrochemicals and agricultural products it stands to reason that a decline in the majority of oil's use (i.e. the energy sector) would free up production to offset any nonsense Russia or Saudi Arabia cares to engage in.

Not seeing anything like that in your link.

To say nothing of any emergent technologies that would cut into petrochemical or agricultural products reliant on fossil fuels.

Right, magic technologies that will create matter from pure energy, sure.

You could be generating natural gas from atmospheric CO2 and water! They have all the right elements! ...at x1000 cost.

[PhaelixWW]

Russia called for tripartite talks over Association Agreement that sparked Maidan the entire time; it was EU that refused them.

So, naturally an invasion of Donbas and Crimea was entirely justified, right?

Oh, wait... no.

And really, what business of it was Russia's to make demands? The EU continued to maintain a dialog directly with Russia, regardless.

[Shrouded]

Ukraine's numbers on estimated Russian casualties passed 30,000 today. 645 officers. Same deal as usual applies, grain of salt, etc. But geez, if that's even remotely true - and from the estimations made by other nations, it sure seems like it could be - that is insane. One man ordered thirty thousand of his own people to their deaths because of an inferiority complex.

[Skulltaker]

I have a somber question for you, and for any patriotic Russian who is reading this.

It took a full military defeat and an occupation for Nazi Germany to come to their senses, snap out of Nazism and turn into a peaceful prosperous country. Similar story for Japan. But because of MAD, the worst military outcome for Russia can be "we fought entire West and it ended in a draw". So how can Russian people snap out of "we're orcs from Mordor" Nazi mindset y'all are now? A powerful top-to-bottom reformer ala Gorbachov could possibly do it, but he doesn't exist right now, and how would he (or she) get into power? Looks grim to me.

Ahm, as a German, Nazism is quite alive here, I have to (sadly) say. I mean, it's leagues away from what it was in the 30es, but, as Bertolt Brecht put it;

"Der Schoß ist fruchtbar noch, aus dem das kroch." (The loins this spawned from are still fertile.)

Agree with the peaceful and prosperous part, though. Still, things like that hardly die. They just crawl back for a while.

[Morgarw]

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/05/27/e...ntl/index.html




Anyone defending ruSSian actions should be tried in court of justice. Or at least banned here on MMO-C

I hope no.
If the discussion keep civil there is no reason to ban someone, russian or not.
Also is very important in my opinion to try in some ways to understand their point of view (even if we not agree) and explain our.
That's the essence of our democracy and the main difference with a regime like Russia where you can't even be against the war and said it loud

[Santti]

I hope no.
If the discussion keep civil there is no reason to ban someone, russian or not.
Also is very important in my opinion to try in some ways to understand their point of view (even if we not agree) and explain our.
That's the essence of our democracy and the main difference with a regime like Russia where you can't even be against the war and said it loud

Nah. There is no reason to tolerate any of it. Especially when it comes to pure, disgusting propaganda machines like Shalcker in here. I agree that a trial is too far, but banning the lot is very much appropriate. Necessary, even.

[Kaleredar]

No, i mean specifically Western sanctions against Russia - especially seizure of Central Bank assets.

Which was done without any kind of UN vote.

The rest of the world gives zero fucks... and has zero empathy... about Russian assets being seized.

You know what also happened without any kind of UN vote?

The invasion of Ukraine.

We'll see soon enough.

Are you still parsing through the articles in which I detailed Russia's interior assessments of how terrible everything is going for them?

Or are we pretending we didn't see that, deary?

Meanwhile China meets banks to discuss protecting assets from US sanctions and flies strategic bombers in joint mission with Russia over Pacific.

Same could be said about Russia; a lot of things override "modern conveniences", and "territorial integrity" (however China defines it) usually comes on top over that.

You know what's more useful than military training exercises?

Providing military support, like arms and training... like Europe and the US is doing for Ukraine, to blow up the Russian invaders.

China doesn't seem to want to provide that to Russia, for some reason, and seems to be largely scaling back their involvement in any way that actually matters. Almost like they aren't willing to face western sanctions to support Russia's little despotic fantasy, because China's interests serve only China, and right now all you are to them is a cheap source of oil.

Hell, you seem intent to bandy on about China, so here's something you love: gigantic block quotes!

Here's what China thinks about Russia, as per the words of Gao Yuanchaun, former Chinese ambassador to numerous former eastern-bloc states, including Ukraine:

https://asiatimes.com/2022/05/rethin...aine-in-china/

The Former PRC Ambassador to Ukraine Gao Yusheng: The Dynamics of the Russian-Ukrainian War and the Implications for the International Order

中国驻乌*兰前⼤*⾼⽟⽣：俄乌战争的⾛势和对国际秩序的影响

Former PRC Ambassador to Ukraine Gao Yusheng ⾼⽟⽣

The Impact of the Russian-Ukrainian War on the International Order

Recently, the Forum of Thirty on China’s International Finance and the Department of International Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences hosted an internal video seminar to discuss how the Russia-Ukraine crisis has changed the global financial landscape, its impact on China and how China should respond.

Former Chinese Ambassador to Ukraine Gao Yuanchuan spoke at the seminar. The following is the text of his talk including edits he made after giving his talk.

The Russo-Ukrainian War is the most important international event of the post-Cold War period. It marks the end of the post-Cold War period and creates in a new international order.

Russia’s position in the Russia-Ukraine war has become increasingly passive and unfavorable. Its coming defeat is already clear.

The main reasons why Russia is now heading towards defeat are:

Russia has been declining ever since the collapse of the Soviet Union, a decline that is first of all a continuation of the pre-dissolution Soviet Union. It is also related to the failures of the internal and external policies of the Russian ruling clique. This process has been exacerbated by Western economic sanctions which have damaged sectors of the Russian economy. The so-called revival or revitalization of Russia under Putin’s leadership is false; it simply does not exist. Russia’s decline is evident in its economic, military, technological, political, and social spheres, and has had a serious negative impact on the Russian military and its war effort.
The failure of the Russian blitzkrieg and the failure to achieve a quick victory signaled the beginning of the Russian defeat. The Russian military’s economic and financial strength, which are not commensurate with its status as a so-called military superpower, could not support a high-tech war costing hundreds of millions of dollars a day. The Russian army’s poverty-driven defeat was evident everywhere on the battlefield. Every day that the war is delayed is a heavy burden for Russia.
Russian military and economic advantages over Ukraine have been offset by the resilience of Ukraine and the huge, sustained and effective aid provided to Ukraine. The generational differences between Russia and the US and other NATO countries in the areas of weapons and technology, military concepts, and modes of warfare make the advantages and disadvantages of both sides even more pronounced.
Modern wars are necessarily hybrid wars, covering military, economic, political, diplomatic, public opinion, propaganda, intelligence, and information. Russia is not only in a passive position on the battlefield, but has lost in other areas. This means that it is only a matter of time before Russia is finally. It is only a matter of time before Russia is finally defeated.
Russia can no longer decide when and how the war will end. Russia is trying to end the war as soon as possible so it can hold on to what it has gained. This has failed. In this sense, Russia has lost its strategic leadership and initiative.

The next phase of the war is likely to be more violent and intense

The possibility of expansion and escalation cannot be ruled out. This is because: the objectives of the two sides are diametrically opposed. Ensuring its sovereignty over Crimea and eastern Ukraine is clearly the bottom line for the Russian side.

Ukraine will not concede to Russia on the issue of sovereignty and territorial integrity and will be determined to recover eastern Ukraine and Crimea through war. The US, NATO and the EU have repeatedly affirmed their determination to defeat Putin.

US Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs John Sully recently emphasized three goals for the US to achieve in the Russia-Ukraine war.

An independent and liberal Ukraine.
A weakened and isolated Russia.
A strong, united, and resolute West.

In order to achieve these goals, the United States and the NATO EU countries have not only significantly increased their assistance to Ukraine, but the United States also passed the first post-World War II Lend Lease Act. The US has internationalized and institutionalized its assistance to Ukraine through the 41st Defense Ministerial Conference.

More importantly, the direct involvement of the US and Britain in the war is deepening and expanding. All of this suggests that the war will be fought until Russia is defeated and punished.

The Russo-Ukrainian War and the New International Order

The Russo-Ukrainian War put an end to the Yalta system and the remnants of the Cold War, and the world began to move toward a new pattern and order of international relations.

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia inherited the Soviet Union’s status as a permanent member of the UN Security Council and a military superpower; Russia continued and retained much of the legacy and influence of the former Soviet Union in domestic politics, economy, society, culture and ideology; and Russian foreign policy was a blend of the foreign policies of the former Soviet Union and of the Tsarist Empire.

(1) The central and overriding direction of the Putin regime’s foreign policy is to regard the former Soviet Union as its exclusive sphere of influence and to restore the empire through the mechanism of integration in all spheres of that area under Russian domination.

Russia has been focused and determined to achieve this goal. Russia has never really recognized the independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity of other former Soviet states, and has frequently violated their territoriality and sovereignty. The Russian-Ukrainian war has changed this situation dramatically in terms of peace and security in the Eurasian region.

After the independence of Ukraine, especially since 2000, the two factions in the country, which had been essentially equally divided between the East and the West leaning factions which were elected to power alternately.

Following the annexation of Crimea and the occupation of parts of eastern Ukraine in 2014, anti-Russian sentiment in Ukraine rose and pro-Russian forces began to shrink. Most of the people in Ukraine, not only in the east but also in the south, supported the country’s entry into the EU and NATO.

After the outbreak of the war, the situation in Ukraine has fundamentally changed. The country is united in its resistance to Russia and its salvation. It can be said that Russia has completely lost Ukraine.

At the same time, the former Soviet Union, with the exception of white Russia, including the members of the Collective Security Treaty and the Eurasian Economic Union, have refused to support Russia. Russia’s defeat would leave it with no hope of rebuilding its old empire.

In order to gain the international status and influence of the Tsarist Empire or the former Soviet Union, break the existing international order, change the geopolitical map of the Eurasian continent and the world.

Russia is obsessed with regrouping the former Soviet states and restoring its alliance or empire. This is in contrast to the US position. This is a fundamental confrontation and conflict with the US. This is the main conflict and sticking point in Russia’s relations with the US.

To a large extent, the conflict between the two sides on this issue is a continuation and remnant of the Cold War between the US and the USSR, and has a certain ideological color. It also has a certain ideological color.

Through this war, the confrontation and struggle between Russia and the US in the context of the American Empire ended in a total defeat for Russia. It has ended the post-Cold War or the continuation of the Cold War.

(2) Possible points of the evolution of the international order after the Russo-Ukrainian war

Russia’s political, economic, military and diplomatic power will be significantly weakened and isolated. Russia will be significantly weakened, isolated and punished. Russia’s power will weaken even more. Russia may be expelled from some important international organizations and its international status will be significantly reduced. Russia’s international status will be significantly reduced.
Ukraine would be removed from Russia’s orbit and sphere of influence (if Russia still has a sphere of influence) and become a member of the great European family. A member of the European family, i.e., a member of the European Union.
Other former Soviet states may experience new and different degrees of de-Russianization. Some countries will move more actively to strengthen their ties with the West.
Japan and Germany, while completely free from the constraints of the defeated countries of World War II and accelerating their armament development, will more actively strive for the status of political powers. Japan and Germany will be more active in seeking the status of political powers. However, they will not break away from the democratic camp, nor will they completely abandon the policy of peaceful development.
The US and other countries will push hard for substantive reform of the UN and other important international organizations. If they are blocked, they may also start a new one. Both may exclude some countries, such as Russia, by drawing ideological lines of so-called independence.

High praise from your "friends" indeed.

And if you disagree with that assessment of the situation... I dunno, take it up with China.

As example see Ukraine being unwilling to let go of this dream right this very moment.

...the dream that they aren't still some soviet vassal state?

Because they seem to be maintaining that dream a lot more readily than Russia's "dream," that they'd invade and Ukraine would concede territory in a few days, that their economy wouldn't be plunged back a decade, that their military wouldn't be shown to be an international laughing stock, that NATO members wouldn't materialize on their borders and that tens of thousands of their men wouldn't be blown to pieces.

However, no matter how hard Russia dreams that... it's not coming true. Hell, China doesn't even believe that dream of yours.

Not seeing anything like that in your link.

Right, magic technologies that will create matter from pure energy, sure.

You could be generating natural gas from atmospheric CO2 and water! They have all the right elements! ...at x1000 cost.

And Russia is going to build the factories to repair its damaged equipment, generate medical supplies, create infrastructure to create highly specialized microchips, build shipyards to replace ships, and build factories to build airplane parts right? All as their economy collapses and their supply lines run thin?

Cuz alternate sources of energy are easier for other countries who aren't under crushing sanctions to manage than it is for Russia, who is, to whip up all the things they're already hurting on. Three. Months. In.

[Specialka]

You know what also happened without any kind of UN vote?

The invasion of Ukraine.



Are you still parsing through the articles in which I detailed Russia's interior assessments of how terrible everything is going for them?

Or are we pretending we didn't see that, deary?




You know what's more useful than military training exercises?

Providing military support, like arms and training... like Europe and the US is doing for Ukraine, to blow up the Russian invaders.

China doesn't seem to want to provide that to Russia, for some reason, and seems to be largely scaling back their involvement in any way that actually matters. Almost like they aren't willing to face western sanctions to support Russia's little despotic fantasy, because China's interests serve only China, and right now all you are to them is a cheap source of oil.

Hell, you seem intent to bandy on about China, so here's something you love: gigantic block quotes!

Here's what China thinks about Russia, as per the words of Gao Yuanchaun, former Chinese ambassador to numerous former eastern-bloc states, including Ukraine:

https://asiatimes.com/2022/05/rethin...aine-in-china/



High praise from your "friends" indeed.

And if you disagree with that assessment of the situation... I dunno, take it up with China.



...the dream that they aren't still some soviet vassal state?

Because they seem to be maintaining that dream a lot more readily than Russia's "dream," that they'd invade and Ukraine would concede territory in a few days, that their economy wouldn't be plunged back a decade, that their military wouldn't be shown to be an international laughing stock, that NATO members wouldn't materialize on their borders and that tens of thousands of their men wouldn't be blown to pieces.

However, no matter how hard Russia dreams that... it's not coming true. Hell, China doesn't even believe that dream of yours.




And Russia is going to build the factories to repair its tanks, generate medical supplies, create infrastructure to create highly specialized microchips, and build airplane parts right? As their economy collapses?

Cuz alternate sources of energy are easier for other countries who aren't under crushing sanctions to manage than it is for Russia, who is, to whip up all the things they're already hurting on. Three. Months. In.

But here I thought Russia did not try to end the war in 3 days because they did not say so ! As per @Shallcker. But it seems that even the chineses think that it is what they tried to do.

[DarkAmbient]

The war in Ukraine has fallen off the front pages here for the most part. Understandable, but in the absence of anything particularly newsworthy there it's easy to think that not much is happening. Johnson said recently that Russia is making 'palpable progress' in Donbas, and has just captured the strategically important town of Lyman. It seems that despite significant losses and the failure of its initial strategy, Russia is slowly making ground with plan B.

[Gabriel]

You guys know what? I'm starting to think Shillcker is actually a false flag operator, because he is literally the biggest reason (next to Putin) my opinion of the russian people has gone down the toilet.

[Yunru]

Its kinda satisfaying to watch russan streamers suffer:


Their internet is also being realy shit right now and i have a felling russan security service is watching them.
Also from what i have seen they also defend their country and being all idealistic.

[Gaidax]

Of course China is in for their own interests. They will keep things friendly enough with Russia, because they themselves are eyeing Taiwan and other goals in their sphere of influence. They will need that UN veto and someone to watch their back when they will inevitably decide to go for it.

They also assuredly would like to create some sort of counter alliance to give West a pause and entice others to join and Russia is an important piece in that.

Now, that's not to say they are happy about the whole mess - I am sure CCP is not exactly happy about Putin starting this, simply because it's both way too soon and because inadvertently it put the West into consolidation and preparation mode ahead of schedule.

So right now China is forced to try to walk the fine line of neutrality-ish on the whole thing. They are not quite ready yet for their own BS. On the other hand I have no doubt China will give a hand to Russia if things are dire, because they have no interest in Russian regime collapse or worse some sort of coup or course reversal happening that would align Russia with the West (or at least chill it the fuck down).