Crisis in UK, Can Tories Save Liz Truss?

[Pann]

I won't be voting in the local elections, never have and am quite happy with how my bins are collected. I reserve that mighty pen for the GE.

I agree that it is possible the Rwanda thing might be stopped by the courts and others, who by and in what timescale, it won't be stopped by the Tories after all? Couple of years perhaps? Excellent timing for the next General Election. The Tories will say what they would do and have tried to do, the UK public (not most on this forum obvs) seem to give broad support and perhaps it will be a manifesto pledge. What will Labour do to counter? Have they even got any alternative? Seems an excellent vote winning Tory trap for Labour and the Lib Dem to me.

When the housing crisis gets worse, how do you argue for unfettered illegal immigration creating the equivalent of a new city every year and the housing demand that goes with that.

The makings of a next Tory policy general election victory is being born before our very eyes. And those that advocate against the shipping of refugees to Rwanda for processing are enabling it.

The Tories can't lose this argument.

I think the Rwanda policy is a distraction for a problem that no-one has a solution to and the Tories fully expect it to challenged in the courts. I agree that is poses a particular problem for Labour as they oppose the policy - rightly in my opinion - but they have nothing to offer other than saying the policy is wrong.

I certainly don't think that victory is assured for the Tories in the next GE nor do I think all is lost for them even if they keep Johnson. I guess it will depend on how badly BoJo fucks up (which he has proved more than capable of) between now and then but if he manages to come across as contrite enough regarding partygate and continues with the good job he is doing with regard to Ukraine I can see them taking it, albeit with a reduced majority, come 2024.

[Dizzeeyooo]

So...pay more to send them down to Rwanda, cover some of the costs there, and then pay to bring them back?

Something unfortunately (or intentionally) misrepresented by most of the reporting on the proposed system is that this is a system for offshoring the UK asylum process when it's not that at all - there's no process for people to return to the UK, their asylum claims here are ignored once they leave. When people arrive in Rwanda, they have the choice to apply for asylum in Rwanda, if successful they remain in Rwanda, if unsuccessful or if they decide not to apply Rwanda can attempt to deport them to a 4th country, or (most likely) they can pay to be smuggled back to Europe and the process starts all over again.

The "problem" currently is that a very large % of the people choosing to cross the channel in a tiny boat do have a genuine claim to asylum in this country under our own criteria (for 2021 the success rate before appeal for people involved in small boat landings was 71% prior to appeal and 48% of appeals succeeded). Some stats on nationalities and success rates before appeal:


So if this system was allowing people with successful asylum applications to return to the UK from Rwanda, something like 80%-85% of the people involved would be returning, which obviously does not "fix" what the Government views as the problem, people arriving in boats, it just makes the process longer and massively more expensive. Hence this proposal - if you arrive in the UK to apply for asylum, the UK deports you to Rwanda and chooses to forget about your existence until you manage to arrive in the UK again, at which point you are sent to Rwanda again, etc.

[Kronik85]

I'm not sure I understand what you're getting at. I haven't stated an opinion on what I want I have simply stated what I think might happen (obviously I could be completely wrong) but I do realise that some, especially on these forums, struggle with the concept that what someone thinks might happen is not the same as what they want to happen.

For the record I have not decided who I will vote for in the upcoming Locals, let alone the next GE, both parties' candidates (the Lib Dems are still furloughed from what I can gather) look lacklustre from where I'm sitting and I am struggling with complete apathy towards our political parties so I am leaning towards not bothering, if you're really interested.

No, you're right. I made a reach there but you are the only Righty on the forum who I would bother to actually engage with and since the current state of our Politics is leaving you apathetic with the current Opposition being positioned in the Centre then what sort of policies would you approve of?

Starmer leaves me pretty cold too but I honestly can't fathom anyone who isn't a Brexiteer Fantasist not wanting to get the Conservatives out of government right now.

We have 3 major political parties on the very similar/the same economic platform, Kier Starmer will not "DESTROY THE ECONOMY!!!", so all there is to vote on is basically the Culture War and you have never struck me as someone who is worried about the Trans' winning at sports.

So yeah, I'm interested in your takes.

[dribbles]

Labour's problems stem from them and their supporters thinking Boris is centre right. He isn't, you don't get elected as Mayor of London, twice, by in any way being right wing. He even recently defined himself as a "Brexity Hezza" and could almost be at home in the Labour party under a Blair type leadership. He certainly wouldn't be comfy in a Thatcher style Tory party. Now there was a proper right wing government...

That and Keir Starmer being as exciting as watching paint dry, Labour are doomed I tell you, doomed.

I just wish we had a proper Conservative govenrment in power, but until an electable one pops out of the woodwork as they surely will at some point, Boris is better than anything else currently on the market. The damage done to the Conservatives by Camerons alliance with Cleggs Lib Dems is still not fully undone, but it is getting there.

[Santti]

This happened over 2 years ago, dude. Literally like 2 months after he became PM lol

News are slow to reach you, if you live under a rock and have unrelenting denial as your only sense of identity.

[Pann]

The letters are in and Johnson will now face a confidence ballot this evening. I suspect he will narrowly scrap through the vote but his days as leader are now numbered.

[Huehuecoyotl]

The letters are in and Johnson will now face a confidence ballot this evening. I suspect he will narrowly scrap through the vote but his days as leader are now numbered.

If he does narrowly win, I expect him to start "negotiating" with the power brokers in the Tories for what it will take for him to step down. This man is self-serving to the extreme; he isn't going to do anything that might benefit the Tory Party or the country without lining his own pocket while he does it.

Whether that's a Lords position, lucrative directorships, or the guarantee of a well paid set of speaking engagements, he isn't going anywhere until he's sure he's getting paid.

[Orby]

Conversates playing it sneaky again, they quit, then put someone else there so we can warm to them and get them voted in next election, then rinse and repeat. Happened with Cameron, and May, now Boris

Whoever is next to replace him will go about warming hearts and minds then this dumb ass country will vote for him to remain at the next election, and then we're stuck with the conservatives for another 4 years.

We don't need a party leadership change its the fucking party. Boris is just a scapegoat.

[dribbles]

Who would replace him? Pick your poison, Jeremy Hunt? The supposed favourite who wrote a book on how to privatise the NHS, not on this list...

[DarkAmbient]

I think he'll win. If this had been held after the coming by-elections which the Tories are set to lose badly then maybe the outcome of this vote would be different. If he wins he might call a GE but the polls aren't looking good so he might just prefer to continue in his weakened position rather than risk losing power altogether.

My money's on Hunt to replace him if he loses. Ben Wallace would also be a strong contender.

[Orby]

I think he'll win. If this had been held after the coming by-elections which the Tories are set to lose badly then maybe the outcome of this vote would be different. If he wins he might call a GE but the polls aren't looking good so he might just prefer to continue in his weakened position rather than risk losing power altogether.

My money's on Hunt to replace him if he loses. Ben Wallace would also be a strong contender.

Win or lose whatever the result we all lose

[Pann]

I think he'll win. If this had been held after the coming by-elections which the Tories are set to lose badly then maybe the outcome of this vote would be different. If he wins he might call a GE but the polls aren't looking good so he might just prefer to continue in his weakened position rather than risk losing power altogether.

My money's on Hunt to replace him if he loses. Ben Wallace would also be a strong contender.

I think it is highly unlikely that Johnson will lose a confidence motion not least because as @dribbles points out there is not exactly a wealth of talent waiting in the wings to replace him.

What will be significant is how many votes go against him. Less than 100 and I think he will continue on to the next election, I imagine this would be the worst outcome for the Cons and the result the opposition are hoping for as all they'll have to do to win the next election is sit back and let Johnson keep doing what he's doing. If there are more than 100 votes against - and I suspect this is where we're headed - then it will become impossible for the Tories to govern and it only be a matter of time before he steps down.

- - - Updated - - -

Win or lose whatever the result we all lose

Oh, I respectfully disagree... Nadine Dorries' meltdown on Twitter is a worth whatever happens as far as I'm concerned!

[Ripster42]

Oh, I respectfully disagree... Nadine Dorries' meltdown on Twitter is a worth whatever happens as far as I'm concerned!

I tried to google what you're talking about, and there's a list of her meltdowns stretching multiple pages of results. Which one are you talking about?

[DarkAmbient]

I think it is highly unlikely that Johnson will lose a confidence motion not least because as @dribbles points out there is not exactly a wealth of talent waiting in the wings to replace him.

What will be significant is how many votes go against him. Less than 100 and I think he will continue on to the next election, I imagine this would be the worst outcome for the Cons and the result the opposition are hoping for as all they'll have to do to win the next election is sit back and let Johnson keep doing what he's doing. If there are more than 100 votes against - and I suspect this is where we're headed - then it will become impossible for the Tories to govern and it only be a matter of time before he steps down.

I disagree on the reason. There are enough people who could feasibly replace him. The main reason he might win is because of the new intake and how many of them are on the payroll.

[Pann]

It's rumoured that if Johnson loses the confidence vote this evening he will call a GE! Given recent polling - which predicts that Lab would be largest party - this is an extremely risky strategy and I can't imagine that many within the Tory party will be happy with him and whilst I believe he'll get through tonight these kind of threats can only make his long term future less secure.

- - - Updated - - -

I disagree on the reason. There are enough people who could feasibly replace him. The main reason he might win is because of the new intake and how many of them are on the payroll.

There are plenty of people who would put their names forward and I would argue that although the majority are not that good, all but a couple would be better than Johnson but the issue facing the Tories is that there is no-one, at present, that they can unite behind.

I disagree, the new intake - assuming you mean the MPs who first won their seats in 2019 - are the some of the most vulnerable to losing their seats and are therefore the least likely to support him.

[Orby]

Oh, I respectfully disagree... Nadine Dorries' meltdown on Twitter is a worth whatever happens as far as I'm concerned!

haha you got me there actually

[Pann]

This is brilliant!

https://twitter.com/damocrat/status/...sfT3Edg8m-Y9MQ

At what point does Boris go "You know what Nadine I think you should just shut the fuck up!"

She must be a Labour plant!

[Lynarii]

This is brilliant!

https://twitter.com/damocrat/status/...sfT3Edg8m-Y9MQ

At what point does Boris go "You know what Nadine I think you should just shut the fuck up!"

She must be a Labour plant!

Doesn't she have all the hallmarks of the next Tory leader though?

[Iliena]

This is brilliant!

https://twitter.com/damocrat/status/...sfT3Edg8m-Y9MQ

At what point does Boris go "You know what Nadine I think you should just shut the fuck up!"

She must be a Labour plant!

Hey at least she has her priorities in order and for once a tory is not lying!

[DarkAmbient]

Prepare for disappointment. Getting the feeling that he's won.