Crisis in UK, Can Tories Save Liz Truss?

[Huehuecoyotl]

Prepare for disappointment. Getting the feeling that he's won.

He was almost certainly going to. The question was how many votes against? Anything over 130, and he's a dead man walking. He'll hang on, but he won't make it to the next election.

[Pann]

He gets through but 148 votes against. I reckon he'll be gone by Christmas.

[DarkAmbient]

Sigh. Here comes the victory speech.

[Huehuecoyotl]

He gets through but 148 votes against. I reckon he'll be gone by Christmas.

40% of his own party don't trust him to lead that party. Any normal person would walk at this point. I expect Boris to cling on for the next year now, regardless of what happens. The man has no shame, and considers nothing beyond his own ego and vanity.

All of which will be fantastically damaging for the Tory party as an entity. This is probably the best outcome for anyone hoping for a good medium to long term outlook for the country. Terrible in the short term, of course. But sadly that's a price we're all going to have to pay.

[DingDongKing]

40% of his own party don't trust him to lead that party. Any normal person would walk at this point. I expect Boris to cling on for the next year now, regardless of what happens. The man has no shame, and considers nothing beyond his own ego and vanity.

All of which will be fantastically damaging for the Tory party as an entity. This is probably the best outcome for anyone hoping for a good medium to long term outlook for the country. Terrible in the short term, of course. But sadly that's a price we're all going to have to pay.

Yes, the country is fucked. And I hate it. But as far as winning confidence votes is concerned, this is a death knell if there ever was one. He’ll only get more unpopular. His only winning tactic will be to actually do a good job. Which he is incapable of doing.

[Lynarii]

Yes, the country is fucked. And I hate it. But as far as winning confidence votes is concerned, this is a death knell if there ever was one. He’ll only get more unpopular. His only winning tactic will be to actually do a good job. Which he is incapable of doing.

Unfortunately no, his 'winning tactic' is to set up as much grift as he can to profit off of, then salt the ground so hard that whomever comes after him has no chance of succeeding so that he and his supporters can point at how much worse it gets and say "See, under us you didn't have this".

[DingDongKing]

Unfortunately no, his 'winning tactic' is to set up as much grift as he can to profit off of, then salt the ground so hard that whomever comes after him has no chance of succeeding so that he and his supporters can point at how much worse it gets and say "See, under us you didn't have this".

By winning tactic, I mean something that would actually make him a popular leader. I’m well aware his actual intent right now is to just poison the well, get rich, and bail.

[Iliena]

Well the Tory party has fucked themselves for the best part of a decade come the next election, how could they expect anybody with any concept of right and wrong to vote for them after all the shenanigans and their refusal to deal with it?

[Pann]

Well the Tory party has fucked themselves for the best part of a decade come the next election, how could they expect anybody with any concept of right and wrong to vote for them after all the shenanigans and their refusal to deal with it?

No they haven't. They will lose the two by-elections coming up Johnson will go, whether he likes it or not, within the next six months (if they had waited until the election results I doubt he would have survived the vote). This gives them plenty of time to put it all behind them and go into a general election with a new (and hopefully better) leader.

On a related note Labour have a big opportunity which they can hopefully capitalise on but result means that Starmer cannot sit back and win the next election by simply not being Boris Johnson.

So the way I see it is now both parties will have to work hard(er) for our votes in the next election which is a good thing.

[dribbles]

How quickly people forget about Beergate....oh wait....

[Calfredd]

How quickly people forget about Beergate....oh wait....

How quickly people forget about Brexit benefits... oh wait...

[Huehuecoyotl]

How quickly people forget about Beergate....oh wait....

Oh look, over there, a squirrel!

How about you go back to searching for Brexit benefits, and leave the political discussions for the grown ups?

[Iliena]

Have you met the general voting public? They'll absolutely still vote for him.

Yep but not enough to see them back in power hopefully, but I might be a bit biased, I fucking hate liars and those who turn a blind eye to it!

[Pann]

How quickly people forget about Beergate....oh wait....

I don't think there is anything (outside of Starmer and Rayner being issued FPNs and failing to resign) that could help the Johnson. If the police find no evidence of law breaking Lab will, still, hold the moral high ground and if they are fined and follow through with their commitment to resign this will heap more pressure on Johnson.

[dribbles]

I don't think there is anything (outside of Starmer and Rayner being issued FPNs and failing to resign) that could help the Johnson. If the police find no evidence of law breaking Lab will, still, hold the moral high ground and if they are fined and follow through with their commitment to resign this will heap more pressure on Johnson.

Boris has the advantage, partygate is over for him and a closed case while the cloud of beergate still looms large over Labour. It is by no means certain Boris is a goner, with his stonking and monumental 80 seat majority this is not the same set of circumstances the weak Theresa May faced. Dare I say Boris is still far more strong and stable?

If he starts to behave like a proper Tory PM instead of something out of the new labour bible, cuts taxes, slashes government spending, gets rid of silly green/net zero policies and dumps the NI protocol many of his disgruntled backbenchers might support him again and there is still a road back. Boris is certainly going nowhere willingly in his own mind and has time on his side.

Meanwhile Starmer and Rayner could be gone in a month and the Labour party will dissolve into chaos.

Also it is worth noting in last nights vote that many more Conservative MP's supported Boris than did in the 2019 leadership election. Quite a good victory I am tempted to say.

[Huehuecoyotl]

Boris has the advantage, partygate is over for him and a closed case while the cloud of beergate still looms large over Labour. It is by no means certain Boris is a goner, with his stonking and monumental 80 seat majority this is not the same set of circumstances the weak Theresa May faced. Dare I say Boris is still far more strong and stable?

If he starts to behave like a proper Tory PM instead of something out of the new labour bible, cuts taxes, slashes government spending, gets rid of silly green/net zero policies and dumps the NI protocol many of his disgruntled backbenchers might support him again and there is still a road back. Boris is certainly going nowhere willingly in his own mind and has time on his side.

Meanwhile Starmer and Rayner could be gone in a month and the Labour party will dissolve into chaos.

Also it is worth noting in last nights vote that many more Conservative MP's supported Boris than did in the 2019 leadership election. Quite a good victory I am tempted to say.

So, nothing but more squirrels from you then? A handful of CCHQ talking points, a bit of projection. Some "jam tomorrow" promises, despite the fact it's been 100% sackcloth and ashes under Boris (for us, that is, not him).

Partygate isn't over, or did you forget that he's STILL under investigation by the parliamentary commission? Which unlike the police and Gray WILL investigate the ABBA party. And can decide that Boris knowingly lied to Parliament about what was going on. Beergate is nothing by comparison, despite the effort of the Daily Heil to make it happen.

The economy is still fucked. Taxes are still at the highest level for 70 years. Government spending still needs to increase to cope with the damage of Brexit, as well as the increased effort it needs to manage its impacts. Any attempt to cut it at this point is likely to accelerate our move into recession. But the Tories have (despite their reputation) NEVER been any good at managing the economy. They have more recessions, increase the national debt more, and generally make a mess even as they sell off the family silver.

So, ignore the reality as much as you want (and that's a go-to move for you, I know) but Boris is finished after this. Three quarters of his back-benchers don't support him, so unless he's planning to put every MP on the payroll, he's clearly lost the party. When the next two by-elections are lost, the Tories will be changing their rules to allow another vote before you can blink. And Boris will finally be out on his ear.

[Pann]

Boris has the advantage, partygate is over for him and a closed case while the cloud of beergate still looms large over Labour. It is by no means certain Boris is a goner, with his stonking and monumental 80 seat majority this is not the same set of circumstances the weak Theresa May faced. Dare I say Boris is still far more strong and stable?

If he starts to behave like a proper Tory PM instead of something out of the new labour bible, cuts taxes, slashes government spending, gets rid of silly green/net zero policies and dumps the NI protocol many of his disgruntled backbenchers might support him again and there is still a road back. Boris is certainly going nowhere willingly in his own mind and has time on his side.

Meanwhile Starmer and Rayner could be gone in a month and the Labour party will dissolve into chaos.

Also it is worth noting in last nights vote that many more Conservative MP's supported Boris than did in the 2019 leadership election. Quite a good victory I am tempted to say.

If the Tories really want to draw line under partygate and move on I think it would be a mistake for them to attack Starmer over beergate. I also think that people have made up their minds one way or the other so there is little opportunity for either party to win over voters by going on about it.

I don't know if you caught any of Politics Live this afternoon but there was a guest professor who said that if the Tories go for another confidence vote there will be a significant number of voters who will feel that he is being stitched up which I must admit this is not something that I had considered and it's certainly something that they will have to wary of but I think that it will become increasingly difficult for the Tories to govern with Johnson at the helm over the coming months and since he is unlikely to resign they will have no choice but to go for another vote.

Johnson won't behave like a proper Tory PM, he has no plan and will continue to lurch from one problem to another. Economically he is hamstrung by his (to borrow a phrase) trolley like attitude and by the fact that Sunak is a weak Chancellor who was selected, like the rest of cabinet, not on ability but because his (then) loyalty to Johnson. I won't go into detail on the protocol but tearing it up would be a big mistake that will only appeal to a narrow subset of voters and will end up causing more problems than it solves.

I don't believe that Starmer and/or Rayner resigning will be a problem for Labour long term, I would think their resignations (if it came to that) would strengthen Lab's position against the Cons. If they do end up resigning there will be an inevitable period of chaos whilst a new leader is selected but assuming they keep the nutters away from the leadership (and to his credit Starmer has done a good job of marginalising them) they should be in good shape by the time next GE comes around.

[Huehuecoyotl]

but assuming they keep the nutters away from the leadership (and to his credit Starmer has done a good job of marginalising them) they should be in good shape by the time next GE comes around.

You weren't doing too badly by your standards, but you had to throw something like that in at the end. I'd ask you to explain exactly which policy made Corbyn a "nutter", but this thread would then devolve into several pages of you nitpicking my analysis of your words to avoid exposing the thought processes that lay behind them. And I don't think anyone needs more of that.

[Pann]

The big dog's position is looking less secure as the Tories lose the Wakefield and Tiverton and Honiton by-elections, to Labour and the Lib Dems, and Oliver Dowden resigns. Whilst mid term by-elections rarely give an accurate picture of what would happen in a GE these results are a cause for concern for the Cons - apathy reigns amongst Tory voters and an unofficial pact between Lab and Lib Dems spell danger - which can't be ignored.

There is little loyalty for Johnson within the Tory party, they were prepared to put with him because he was seen to be a winner with the electorate, but without Brexit and Corbyn to fall back on and his winning ways seemingly behind him it is surely just a matter of time before he goes and I can't help but feel that had they waited until today to put their letters in he would be gone.

The next few months are certainly going to be interesting. Will Johnson fall on his sword or will the 1922 committee be forced to change the one year rule? Will Starmer go all out on the wounded Johnson or will he hold back knowing that Johnson is currently Lab's biggest electoral asset?

[dribbles]

The big dog's position is looking less secure as the Tories lose the Wakefield and Tiverton and Honiton by-elections, to Labour and the Lib Dems, and Oliver Dowden resigns. Whilst mid term by-elections rarely give an accurate picture of what would happen in a GE these results are a cause for concern for the Cons - apathy reigns amongst Tory voters and an unofficial pact between Lab and Lib Dems spell danger - which can't be ignored.

There is little loyalty for Johnson within the Tory party, they were prepared to put with him because he was seen to be a winner with the electorate, but without Brexit and Corbyn to fall back on and his winning ways seemingly behind him it is surely just a matter of time before he goes and I can't help but feel that had they waited until today to put their letters in he would be gone.

The next few months are certainly going to be interesting. Will Johnson fall on his sword or will the 1922 committee be forced to change the one year rule? Will Starmer go all out on the wounded Johnson or will he hold back knowing that Johnson is currently Lab's biggest electoral asset?

Another option, especially if Starmer has to resign shortly over Beergate...

Boris Johnson tipped to call October General Election after by-election blow

https://www.express.co.uk/news/polit...ince-cable-spt

I hope Boris goes that route, clear the leftie crud in the Tory party out once and for all getting a new mandate from the public in the process, while Labour is rudderless and bickering over which faction should now lead their party.