Yeah, no idea how one would come to the conclusion that Q3, which is still about 13 months away, is more likely than Q1. Their release schedule is pretty clear at the moment:
Q2/22: Diablo Immortal (June)
Q4/22: Overwatch 2 (October - although they almost made it to Q3 here)
Q4/22: WotLK Classic (September-November)
Q1/23: Dragonflight (March)
Q2/23: Diablo 4 (although I don't really expect it to release at that time, I expect a delay until Q3 or even Q4/23)
Q3 this year is a bit lackluster, but I guess they're hoping for DI revenue. Or they squeeze WotLK Classic into September.