Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Specialka]

We can discuss who bombards whom in PMs if you like.

But economic war should be more important to you - as it is going to impact you (and me) directly while bombs are unlikely to fly into either of our homes.

I am ready to pay any price to see Russia defeated (which they already are strategically speaking). And I sure hope that in 10 or 20 years, we can welcome Russia in the democracy side.

[Shalcker]

I am ready to pay any price to see Russia defeated (which they already are strategically speaking). And I sure hope that in 10 or 20 years, we can welcome Russia in the democracy side.

You are going to pay the price and still lose though, because you're undermining yourself much faster then Russia.

Maybe you should support measures you can actually sustain rather then go off the deep end and hope for the best.

[Edge-]

Maybe you should support measures you can actually sustain rather then go off the deep end and hope for the best.

The irony is thicker than pitch.

[Specialka]

You are going to pay the price and still lose though, because you're undermining yourself much faster then Russia.

Maybe you should support measures you can actually sustain rather then go off the deep end and hope for the best.

That is not what economy is showing , but keep deluding yourself.

[Shalcker]

That is not what economy is showing , but keep deluding yourself.

Likewise.

Maybe you could actually link articles that give you such rosy outlook rather then simply declare it though.

[Specialka]

Likewise.

Maybe you could actually link articles that give you such rosy outlook rather then simply declare it though.

If you insist:

https://www.ft.com/content/fb79c2bd-...3-508d4df865e5

Btw, when guy like Putin boasts like that, things are pretty sure far much worse.

[Shalcker]

If you insist:

https://www.ft.com/content/fb79c2bd-...3-508d4df865e5

Btw, when guy like Putin boasts like that, things are pretty sure far much worse.

Sorry, it's behind paywall, so you might want to give some quotes.

[Specialka]

Sorry, it's behind paywall, so you might want to give some quotes.

It is not for me and I am not sub to the FT.

[Shalcker]

It is not for me and I am not sub to the FT.

Lots of reasons why it could be different between us; i cannot see it, and blurb only talks about Putin boasting that Russian economy weathered sanctions "better then Europe".

[Specialka]

Lots of reasons why it could be different between us; i cannot see it, and blurb only talks about Putin boasting that Russian economy weathered sanctions "better then Europe".

There was also some numbers about EU growth which will take a hit (which is normal) and Russia growth which would even take a bigger hit (around -10%).

It seems I can't access it now because it is now behind a paywall for me as well.

[Azadina]

Sorry, it's behind paywall, so you might want to give some quotes.

The Russian ministry of truth cannot even afford to pay for a newspaper? And here you were boasting how well Russia does economically compared to the west.

[Shalcker]

There was also some numbers about EU growth which will take a hit (which is normal) and Russia growth which would even take a bigger hit (around -10%).

It seems I can't access it now because it is now behind a paywall for me as well.

Everyone is going to take hits - economic wars in modern globalized markets are not going to be one-sided. And EU so far is doing much worse then projected.

Worst-case for EU is:
- people freeze (even reduction of "allowed temperatures" can bring hits to health)
- getting all "alternative" suppliers lined up and building local LNG hubs will take at least several years, and actually replacing entire Russian production (rather then shifting flows around) would need trillions in investments
- industries collapse (some already do due to prices; more will with actual physical shortages)
- competitiveness of European goods that were buoyed by cheap Russian energy is lost forever (LNG will forever have higher price then pipe gas, and alternative pipe options are rather limited), making Europe inferior option to Asian - or American - producers.

vs

Russia has to:
- find new buyers of oil and gas that is going to be in short supply for next decade - doesn't seem to be a real problem; volumes drop, but price increases easily make up for it so far... could change if production would increase, but previous underinvestment all around the world makes that very unlikely, and "green/renewable future" beliefs are still strong
- find new suppliers of consumer and industrial electronics - or learn to produce them themselves
- industries that relied on imports will have to use lower-volume 'grey' schemes
There is enough money brought in to actually fuel internal investments in next decade, and all "basic needs" - food and energy - are not in danger of not being met (it isn't ever going to be "food for oil" like with late USSR).

[Specialka]

Everyone is going to take hits - economic wars in modern globalized markets are not going to be one-sided. And EU so far is doing much worse then projected.

Worst-case for EU is:
- people freeze (even reduction of "allowed temperatures" can bring hits to health)
- getting all "alternative" suppliers lined up and building local LNG hubs will take at least several years, and actually replacing entire Russian production (rather then shifting flows around) would need trillions in investments
- industries collapse (some already do due to prices; more will with actual physical shortages)
- competitiveness of European goods that were buoyed by cheap Russian energy is lost forever (LNG will forever have higher price then pipe gas, and alternative pipe options are rather limited), making Europe inferior option to Asian - or American - producers.

vs

Russia has to:
- find new buyers of oil and gas that is going to be in short supply for next decade - doesn't seem to be a real problem; volumes drop, but price increases easily make up for it so far... could change if production would increase, but previous underinvestment all around the world makes that very unlikely, and "green/renewable future" beliefs are still strong
- find new suppliers of consumer and industrial electronics - or learn to produce them themselves
- industries that relied on imports will have to use lower-volume 'grey' schemes
There is enough money brought in to actually fuel internal investments in next decade, and all "basic needs" - food and energy - are not in danger of not being met (it isn't ever going to be "food for oil" like with late USSR).

EU is doing much worse than projected (maybe) but still miles better than Russia.

[Forogil]

EU is doing much worse than projected (maybe) but still miles better than Russia.

To clarify: worse than projected for EU means a small GDP growth of perhaps 2.7% instead of 4% ( https://ec.europa.eu/info/business-e...ic-forecast_en ) , Russia predicts their GDP will decline by perhaps 8% instead of the previously projected modest growth - https://www.russia-briefing.com/news...forecast.html/

[jonnysensible]

Its obvious that democracy and dictatorships cant live on planet earth together. Death to all dictators and their supporters.

[Specialka]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_I0srEaIcfQ

Very interesting video. It is in French but I think you can understand it with the youtube subtitle.

[Shalcker]

To clarify: worse than projected for EU means a small GDP growth of perhaps 2.7% instead of 4% ( https://ec.europa.eu/info/business-e...ic-forecast_en ) , Russia predicts their GDP will decline by perhaps 8% instead of the previously projected modest growth - https://www.russia-briefing.com/news...forecast.html/

Those EU predictions will not necessarily stop getting revised down as European situation worsens... another revision down with next quarter wouldn't be surprising.

[Kaleredar]

The Russian ministry of truth cannot even afford to pay for a newspaper? And here you were boasting how well Russia does economically compared to the west.

Remember, almost 80% of all Russian households have running water!

Clearly the pinnacle of civilization.

[Shalcker]

EU is doing much worse than projected (maybe) but still miles better than Russia.

Some EU countries already do worse in inflation.

[Specialka]

Some EU countries already do worse in inflation.

Can't beat 20% monthly inflation