Quote Originally Posted by neescher View Post
I wouldn't really use warcraftlogs as a source for m+, many people aren't logging m+.
I was hoping to get a more balanced representation.

Subcreation only looks at the top 100 keys per dungeon per affix in each region, and +16 and up only, admitting they are biased towards the top end.

Warcraftlogs uses whatever people upload, including lower and failed keys.

Now your point about people chasing top specs is completely on point. Players who are going for the best results will change specs, or even classes, to get them. When this turns into "stop inviting Arms, they suck" the moderate or worse players will eventually follow the leaders. This leads to underrepresentation of some specs and overrepresentation of others, deserved or otherwise, which leads into ratings, which causes further changes, and the cycle feeds on itself. It's basically evolution.

Which is where subcreation, by looking at the top 100 only, should be the most helpful. They are judging every class/spec by its maximum proven potential. If the best Arms warriors in the game are doing just fine, then the spec is just fine.

Incidentally, the results line up pretty closely, but not identically. Like you said, not everyone logs, but I'm making the assumption that people who do log are people who are trying to improve. Any randoms they meet along the way would also be uploaded with them, so their results would be mixed in, and this would include carries. Yet the results for DPS warriors, +15 to +20 at least, are fairly similar with those top 100 runners: Arms is near the bottom, Fury is doing fine.

I'm not surprised that top 100 Fury (subcreation) is proportionately better than random M+ (warcraftlogs) running Fury. In past xpacs using warcraftlogs, Fury always seemed to have a wide spread of results, with top-end Fury (75th, 90th, 95th percentiles) doing proporionately better than their colleagues. I'm not 100% sure why, but I used to blame Fury for being so gear/stat reliant and therefore underperforming at the start of an xpac and getting stronger and stronger as it goes on.