Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Corvus]

Lithuania is simply enforcing eu sanctions on goods through its territory. Kaliningrad is still accessible via sea or air. Any actions by Russia against it would invoke article 5.

[Ihavewaffles]

Lithuania is simply enforcing eu sanctions on goods through its territory. Kaliningrad is still accessible via sea or air. Any actions by Russia against it would invoke article 5.

Goods that 1. are not part of sanctions. 2. headed to kaliningrad Rus territory n not eu, are for that reason too not part of sanctions.
This would be like Canada saying US can't deliver goods to alaska, whether canada itself wants goods for itself or not, is a seperate issue.

Would not trigger art.5

[Dezerte]

Yeah, Lithuania isn't preventing access to Kaliningrad. They are following and enforcing sanctions on goods - Lithuania has no responsibility to allow foreign countries to use their (Lithuania) land for transport of goods.

And as much as this forum makes fun of YUPPIE, Russian leadership is YUPPIE but on drugs.

[zealo]

Goods that 1. are not part of sanctions. 2. headed to kaliningrad Rus territory n not eu, are for that reason too not part of sanctions.
This would be like Canada saying US can't deliver goods to alaska, whether canada itself wants goods for itself or not, is a seperate issue.

Would not trigger art.5

This would be like if Canada said the US can't deliver goods to Alaska through Canadian territory if the US had invaded Mexico in the months prior and started massacring and raping the local population, perpetrating a genocide.

You're missing that part in your comparison here. And no, Lithuania would absolutely have grounds to trigger article 5 if Russia attacked them over this.

[MCMLXXXII]

Kalinigrad isn't locked. Air and sea are still open for Russia. Attacking Lithuania to force land transport would indeed trigger art 5.

[YUPPIE]

is it really so wrong to assume Russia will indeed attack Lithuania per threats? They are impulsive and have little regard for restraint.

[Corvus]

It's merely impotent rage. The vast majority of their combat troops are bogged down in Ukraine. They aren't going to start anything against the entirely of NATO.

[YUPPIE]

so if hypothetically Russia attacks Lithuania and NATO braces to intervene and Russia goes "STOP OR NUKES" will NATO just proceed regardless?

[zealo]

Russia won't do shit about Lithuania. They quite literally do not have the forces to spare for a war against NATO when they're already bogged down in Ukraine.

Russia will whinge and cry about how "unfair" this is and Lithuania supposedly "provoking" them, and then start redirecting rail shipments towards port facilities in Kaliningrad from St. Petersburg.

[Vankrys]

is it really so wrong to assume Russia will indeed attack Lithuania per threats? They are impulsive and have little regard for restraint.

I think a lot will depends on 2024 election. If Trump is reelected, there is a chance Putin will make a move on the Baltic. Trump has already shown little interest in sending American troops to defend smaller countries of NATO, even floated the idea to leave NATO altogether. Plus we also know Trump tend to be on friendly term with Putin, even against US own agencies at times.

[Santti]

I think a lot will depends on 2024 election. If Trump is reelected, there is a chance Putin will make a move on the Baltic. Trump has already shown little interest in sending American troops to defend smaller countries of NATO, even floated the idea to leave NATO altogether. Plus we also know Trump tend to be on friendly term with Putin, even against US own agencies at times.

Nah.

Even if US were to leave NATO (fyi, NATO consists of more than just the US), Russia still couldn't do jack shit against the Baltic countries, which are part of NATO. They are stuck with Ukraine, for crying out loud. How do you think they'd fare against NATO, a much larger and modern military? Especially now that Russia is depleting it's own arsenal, with little hope of replenishing it any time soon, and having to resort to WW2 and Cold War weaponry?

Russia isn't invading anyone after Ukraine, for a long time.

[Unholyground]

yes, and it will only continue to get worse if people will keep buying Russian oil regardless and caving to their wheat leverage. Although with the latter, President Joe Biden has in an unprecedented move announced an intent to build silos on Ukraine's borders to allow Ukraine exports to pass through in complete defiance of the food blackmail. What if Russia takes that as a declaration of war from America?

Russia is weak compared to the rest of the world, They are pissing out blood now, only a matter of time before the cancer gets them from the inside and out.

[Flarelaine]

2. Institutional reforms are possible. Most Eastern European countries including the most successful ones like the Baltics and Poland have escaped the same endemic corruption that plagues Russia.

The problem is with the social and political model Russia offers. Once you break away from that, reform is possible. Even tho sometimes said reforms can fail...see Hungary.

Our reforms did not so much fail as they were gutted from the inside while the EU looked on and paid for it.

[Corvus]

The Ukrainian defence minister has said the pzh 2000s are now in Ukraine. Russia has nothing that comes close to these. The Ukrainians reportedly have a high opinion of the French Cesar SPGs and the pzh 2000 is another step up.

Between them and the HIMARS, Russia is in for some serious pain.

[XDurionX]

is it really so wrong to assume Russia will indeed attack Lithuania per threats? They are impulsive and have little regard for restraint.

What has become of "i will shut up til they use nukes"?

[Ihavewaffles]

is it really so wrong to assume Russia will indeed attack Lithuania per threats? They are impulsive and have little regard for restraint.

I'd say the lithuanians are impulsive.

Fyi sanctions (eu-ru trade) doesn't cover ru-ru trade, which it is when the end destination is kaliningrad, or did you think kaliningrad is eu territory n it's up to you whether it should recieve goods or not?

Btw what would eu feel if erdogan shut off the bosporus for eu trade to pass through? Or if anyone n everyone in the world did the same?

[Attackrabbit]

Fyi sanctions (eu-ru trade) doesn't cover ru-ru trade, which it is when the end destination is kaliningrad, or did you think kaliningrad is eu territory n it's up to you whether it should recieve goods or not?

You can't force a country to let a foreign nation use their land to transport goods whether they are sanctioned goods or not, not to mention as several people have already pointed out Kaliningrad is still open by air and sea and no one is doing anything to stop Russia using the air or sea routes.

Well i suppose you can force them but we've seen how that is likely to end up for Russia so it may as well be that they can not do it.

[Shalcker]

The Ukrainian defence minister has said the pzh 2000s are now in Ukraine. Russia has nothing that comes close to these. The Ukrainians reportedly have a high opinion of the French Cesar SPGs and the pzh 2000 is another step up.

Err, 30-46 km range with standard rounds? Is that a joke?

"Nothing comes close"?? How about 80km 2S35 Koalitsiya-SV

Between them and the HIMARS, Russia is in for some serious pain.

Is it 12 total like with HIMARS?

[Azadina]

Err, 30-46 km range with standard rounds? Is that a joke?

"Nothing comes close"?? How about 80km 2S35 Koalitsiya-SV

Is it 12 total like with HIMARS?

Yea speaking of 12 total, that's the total number produced of those you linked. Might aswell be talking of unicorns.

[Gorsameth]

I think a lot will depends on 2024 election. If Trump is reelected, there is a chance Putin will make a move on the Baltic. Trump has already shown little interest in sending American troops to defend smaller countries of NATO, even floated the idea to leave NATO altogether. Plus we also know Trump tend to be on friendly term with Putin, even against US own agencies at times.

The paper tiger has been revealed for all to see. There is no doubt that NATO without the US will still utterly crush Russia if need be.