Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Specialka]

So I read that a Turkish ship is sailing from Mariupol after discussions between Turkey and Russia about cereals. I am wondering if it is full or not, full of cereals ? But to whom will the sales of those cereals will benefit ? Ukraine or Russia ? If the latter, can we say that Turkey is helping Russia pillage Ukraine ?

[Crispin]

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/...nce-threatened

Think everyone saw that

Russia could use nuclear weapons if existence threatened: Kremlin

Highlighted a rather significant part of this

[MCMLXXXII]

Think everyone saw that



Highlighted a rather significant part of this

I was typing a long reply, but indeed this.
Context, chosen words aren't something YUPPIE looks into. He just goes all Tweek.

[Vankrys]

Think everyone saw that



Highlighted a rather significant part of this

Putin is one sentence away from linking an intrusion/attack on Russian soil and its existence being threatened. Dictators can justify just about anything with a speech in a press conference, and it's not like Putin hasn't made questionable deduction during press conferences in the past. I mean, did you hear the justification for invading Ukraine in the first place.

The question is not whether the justification is valid or not, the question is what the Kremlin wants to do next, the rest is just dressing and rhetoric.

[MCMLXXXII]

Putin is one sentence away from linking an intrusion/attack on Russian soil and its existence being threatened. Dictators can justify just about anything with a speech in a press conference, and it's not like Putin hasn't made questionable deduction during press conferences in the past. I mean, did you hear the justification for invading Ukraine in the first place.

The question is not whether the justification is valid or not, the question is what the Kremlin wants to do next, the rest is just dressing and rhetoric.

So genuine question: do you think Russia would launch them for any other reason then being actually invaded?
Or are you related to YUPPIE?

[Corvus]

While Russia still refuses to admit to its very heavy losses, the Donetsk militia have admitted to 11,000 casualties so far - around 2128 dead and 8897 wounded. That is around 55% of their starting forces. And I would say that those aren't accurate figures. The ratio of KIA to WIA is generally around 1:3 in forces with proper and prompt medical care. You could probably take on at least another 1K dead to that.

It is so bad that they have been offering 1 year contracts to foreign mercenaries to join its forces.

[Iphie]

While Russia still refuses to admit to its very heavy losses, the Donetsk militia have admitted to 11,000 casualties so far - around 2128 dead and 8897 wounded. That is around 55% of their starting forces. And I would say that those aren't accurate figures. The ratio of KIA to WIA is generally around 1:3 in forces with proper and prompt medical care. You could probably take on at least another 1K dead to that.

It is so bad that they have been offering 1 year contracts to foreign mercenaries to join its forces.

That tracks with what I read recently that they asked for more support from the Kremlin, I can only imagine how the morale is reaching the breaking point. I can see them turn on the russians if this goes on, though that might just be wishful thinking.

[Crispin]

Putin is one sentence away from linking an intrusion/attack on Russian soil and its existence being threatened. Dictators can justify just about anything with a speech in a press conference, and it's not like Putin hasn't made questionable deduction during press conferences in the past. I mean, did you hear the justification for invading Ukraine in the first place.

The question is not whether the justification is valid or not, the question is what the Kremlin wants to do next, the rest is just dressing and rhetoric.

That attack was the equivilant of nudging your baby toe into a doorframe, not exactly an event where existence is threatened.

[Shalcker]

Till August 10th, the advantage of coal is how much easier it is to transport and store.

It also takes a lot of space on transports, which limits amounts you can transfer to Europe on longer voyages (and most alternatives provide worse coal so you will need more of it too).

Transport ships aren't unlimited.

You're loosing your prime gas customer faster and you'll loose out on the coal exports by 10th of August.

No, that coal will simply go elsewhere - as you yourself said, it is easy to store and transport; measures to expand rail and river transports are already proposed.

I'm sure you realise what faster means, no one is expcting fossil fuels to be a thing of the past this decade or next, Russian imports will however be.

You and many people in Western world don't expect fossil fuels to be a thing in next decade; this means exorbitant prices in this decade due to dwindling supply (noone in the West wants to invest into it now - those projects take time).

And then you'll still have to pay in next decades too because fossil fuels aren't actually going away even with full-renewable electricity - they have plenty of uses in price-sensitive industries, and renewables aren't going to beat them there.

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Forced deportations of children isn't "evacuations", it is genocide by the textbook definition.

Could you point me out to article explaining actual conditions of those evacuations that allow to classify them as forced deportations?

Allowing children to remain in active warzone would seem to be a bigger crime.

The central point there is rather that Russia admitted to that they did take those people to Russia that Ukraine accuses them of having done.

Noone ever denied on Russian side that some people flee war into Russia; numbers were posted quite regularly.

[The Stormbringer]

And so does West. Just stop supporting the war and it'll end soon enough.

Both sides have responsibility; Russia is acting on it, West feeds the flames.

"Just let Russia destroy a country, enslave its people, and steal its territory and the war can end!"

[Shalcker]

"Just let Russia destroy a country, enslave its people, and steal its territory and the war can end!"

"We'll burn the world trade and finance before we let Russia win anything" isn't endorsement of the Western values.

[Skulltaker]

"We'll burn the world trade and finance before we let Russia win anything" isn't endorsement of the Western values.

Well, seeing how what you'd like to win is the genocide of the Ukrainian people, I'm actually pretty ok with us damaging our economy to stop you.

[The Stormbringer]

"We'll burn the world trade and finance before we let Russia win anything" isn't endorsement of the Western values.

It absolutely is. It shows that human lives, the integrity of a nation, and the well-being of the world in general is more important than money. No one believed that Russia would ever be content if they were "given" Ukraine. Eventually they would want more, and more, and more, until it's impossible to stop them. This right here is showing Russia that it can't bully the world, and has to treat people and nations with decency. There is a "social contract" of sorts that the modern world has to uphold, and Russia broke that contract. To not punish them for this would be to give them permission to do whatever thy want, forever.

[Shalcker]

So, yeah, Oryx has listed losses of:

Russia - 4375, of which: destroyed: 2614, damaged: 84, abandoned: 322, captured: 1355
Ukraine - 1184, of which: destroyed: 577, damaged: 28, abandoned: 36, captured: 543

Sure, we're more likely to see evidence of destroyed Russian equipment, but... c'mon. That Russian propaganda is str0nk, and a certain poster is ladling it up.

Here is what Ukrainian military actually says in their pitch to Western defense contractors:
----

Sharapov: ... to carry out a war in this day and age, we need heavy weapons — that’s primarily artillery systems. As of today, our need for heavy artillery systems is measured by hundreds. That’s why we also need a huge number of rounds for these artillery systems.

I am not going to name the exact number we need. That is information for internal use. I’m just going to tell you I think to fulfill those needs we have to engage the entire military industrial complex of the entire world.

We have received a large number of weapon systems, but unfortunately with such a massively expendable resource, it only covers 10 to 15 percent of our needs. We need artillery, we need artillery rounds, infantry fighting vehicles, combat vehicles, tanks. We really need air-defense systems and the multiple launch rocket system.

...
Gen. Karpenko: Regarding the first question, I want to add something to what the deputy minister has said in terms of the need for equipment and armaments. I just want you to understand the intensity of the conflict. While the deputy minister was talking, I drafted some numbers to just show you the intensity of combat along those … kilometers where the combat is most active.

Think about this: one brigade occupies around 40 kilometers of the fence line. That means that to cover the active combat conflict we need 40 brigades. Every brigade is 100 infantry fighting vehicles, 30 tanks, 54 artillery systems — just for one brigade, and we have 40 of them.

I'm not going to talk about the anti-tank guided missiles or anti-tank guided weapons for now. I’m just talking about heavy weapons. As of today, we have approximately 30 to 40, sometimes up to 50 percent of losses of equipment as a result of active combat. So, we have lost approximately 50 percent. … Approximately 1,300 infantry fighting vehicles have been lost, 400 tanks, 700 artillery systems.

That is a mathematical estimation we can make based on the length of the frontline and the intensity of the conflict. So, I'm giving you this estimate just for you to understand how significant the requirement is based on the intensity of the conflict.

So, think about it. If the current need for artillery systems is 700 vehicles, that needs to be replenished because they were destroyed. And we have only received 100 vehicles for example from [foreign] aid.

...
Gen. Karpenko: You have to understand why maintenance is very important today. Most of the heavy equipment that we use is operated in such grave conditions due to heavy artillery shelling and heavy fires. The equipment doesn't stop being operational because it's used up. It stops being operational because of constant artillery shelling.

Unfortunately, we don't have an opportunity today to have foreign supplied equipment sent back to a restoration facility simply because of time constraints. That is why we are discussing spare parts here so that we can maintain and repair that equipment right in the field.

For example, the M777 artillery systems are really prone to being damaged by enemy artillery. For every battery of M777, there are six pieces.

After every artillery contact, we have to take two artillery pieces and take them back to the rear to maintain them because some of the subsystems are damaged by shrapnel. This happens every day.
---

But either way x10 on "Russian advantage" generally comes as number for infantry, not vehicle losses.

[Shadowferal]

The War's Impact on Russia's Economy and Ukrainian Politics

The first month of the war was characterized by extreme disarray, both in politics and on the battlefield. Russian military and government leaders seemed disoriented. Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu dropped out of sight for a few weeks. Putin fired the heads of the foreign intelligence bureau of the Federal Security Service, as multiple generals died on the battlefield and Ukrainian farmers towed away disabled Russian tanks. Some reports indicated that Russian leaders had fled to a deep nuclear bunker beneath the Ural Mountains, while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky remained in charge in Kyiv. Some Russian oligarchs indicated their dismay with the invasion and its results, believing that Putin had thrown away 20 years of Russian prosperity in a single act. While a palace coup or popular uprising remains unlikely, neither are impossible, and Russia’s politics will remain volatile while living standards collapse, despite a crackdown on dissent and free speech.

Putin re-oriented the army towards a concentration of forces in Eastern Ukraine, preparing a new offensive there. In some ways, this is already a defeat, due to the rapid scaling down of military objectives, from a total takeover of the country to an effort to expand Russia’s occupation of Eastern Ukraine. Yet, as security analyst Sergei Karaganov states, Russia needs to win this war, however defined, and adopting a narrower definition may work. A lot depends on events on the ground. If Putin succeeds in holding onto expanded territory in Eastern Ukraine and can claim victory, that is one thing, but if the Ukrainian army succeeds in pushing Russia back, it will deny Putin an opportunity to declare victory, and he will become more vulnerable politically. Expect Putin to drag out the conflict as long as possible.

This war has already been a tremendous political success for Ukraine, though extremely costly in terms of lives lost, property damaged, and cities destroyed. In it, Ukraine has won recognition as a state on the international stage. Most nations are forged in war, and Ukraine has turned this terrible attack to its long-term advantage by introducing itself to the world as a powerful state. It has demonstrated itself to be a democracy, a European nation, possessed of a powerful civic nationalism that transcends the Ukrainian-Russian speaking language divide to include a wide diversity of ethnic identities: Polish, Jewish, Armenian, and Greek. With its popular and telegenic president, Ukraine has left an indelible mark on the world stage. Most notably, after decades of skepticism from core EU states, Ukraine proved itself to be a part of Europe, of European values, and therefore a potential future member of the bloc. That will change Ukrainian politics permanently.

[YUPPIE]

so in response to the lithuania incident, russia has threatened nukes again. Isn't it about time to stop letting this pass? I mean come on, just stop letting them say this shit without consequence

https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/u...ndoff-27289972

The UK will 'vanish' if the standoff in Lithuania leads to a nuclear World War 3, a retired Russian general and military expert has warned.

Lieutenant-General Evgeny Buzhinsky explained to Russian state TV that the West is playing a dangerous game by blockading Russian exclave Kaliningrad to stop sanctioned goods being sent to the area through NATO state Lithuania.

He hit out at British general Sir Patrick Sanders, who this week took charge of British land forces and told soldiers to prepare to fight and defeat Russia in a third World War, the Mirror reports.

[Saradain]

It also takes a lot of space on transports, which limits amounts you can transfer to Europe on longer voyages (and most alternatives provide worse coal so you will need more of it too).

Transport ships aren't unlimited.

No, that coal will simply go elsewhere - as you yourself said, it is easy to store and transport; measures to expand rail and river transports are already proposed.

You and many people in Western world don't expect fossil fuels to be a thing in next decade; this means exorbitant prices in this decade due to dwindling supply (noone in the West wants to invest into it now - those projects take time).

And then you'll still have to pay in next decades too because fossil fuels aren't actually going away even with full-renewable electricity - they have plenty of uses in price-sensitive industries, and renewables aren't going to beat them there.

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Could you point me out to article explaining actual conditions of those evacuations that allow to classify them as forced deportations?

Allowing children to remain in active warzone would seem to be a bigger crime.

Noone ever denied on Russian side that some people flee war into Russia; numbers were posted quite regularly.

If anyone ever thought you are not a bad person, this line right here will convince them that you are evil incarnate. Literally handwaving off the kidnapping of thousands of ukrainian children as something positive to do. What's next, you gonna call the boogieman West a war criminal for not kidnapping the kids before Russia, leaving them to warzones?

[Vladier]

Could you point me out to article explaining actual conditions of those evacuations that allow to classify them as forced deportations?

Allowing children to remain in active warzone would seem to be a bigger crime.

In accordance with the Geneva convention, children in conflict zones should be evacuated to the territory of a neutral country agreed upon by their current guardian country (that is, Ukraine, in this conflict), and given education appropriate to their age, preferably by the people of their culture of origin. Certainly they should not be kidnapped by the aggressor who killed their parents, adopted by them and forced to be educated in that aggressor's culture and language, that would fall under one of the definitions of genocide.

[Edge-]

Allowing children to remain in active warzone would seem to be a bigger crime.

And here I thought the bigger crime was invading another country and killing those children to begin with.

But I guess it's all a matter of perspective, or something.

[Specialka]

It also takes a lot of space on transports, which limits amounts you can transfer to Europe on longer voyages (and most alternatives provide worse coal so you will need more of it too).

Transport ships aren't unlimited.

No, that coal will simply go elsewhere - as you yourself said, it is easy to store and transport; measures to expand rail and river transports are already proposed.

You and many people in Western world don't expect fossil fuels to be a thing in next decade; this means exorbitant prices in this decade due to dwindling supply (noone in the West wants to invest into it now - those projects take time).

And then you'll still have to pay in next decades too because fossil fuels aren't actually going away even with full-renewable electricity - they have plenty of uses in price-sensitive industries, and renewables aren't going to beat them there.

- - - Updated - - -

Could you point me out to article explaining actual conditions of those evacuations that allow to classify them as forced deportations?

Allowing children to remain in active warzone would seem to be a bigger crime.

Noone ever denied on Russian side that some people flee war into Russia; numbers were posted quite regularly.

You do know you should have relocated them to a neutral country ? And I do remember one of ONU representant saying that they should not be adopted, at least, until the war is over, etc... meaning it has already happened.