SCOTUS removes Roe V Wade

[Fugus]

Oh I absolutely believe that gay marriage rights are in real danger. Now. Today.

The argument I'm pushing back against is that if we had locked up the SCOTUS for 30 years back in 2016 that we'd have them at risk 30 years from now.

Except for the fact that a marriage issued in one state is valid in all states and they have zero chance of banning gay marriage. Their "States Rights" argument doesn't get the same mileage as it used to when the majority is against them on these issues by large margins, it just gives them the ability to show how they really are and gives them enough rope to hang themselves both as a party and as a state.

Unless I am wrong and you can be married in one state by single in an other.

[Lenonis]

You do know that it was only 2003 where sodomy laws were deemed UnConstitutional right?

Two questions:
1) How often were they enforced?
2) What was the support for gay rights back in 2003 again?

[Paranoid Android]

Lot of hate for Susan Collins today and none for the dumbasses who disagree with her but keep sending her to Congress.

The majority of Maine population can't have kids anymore since they all 100 years old. So this wasn't an issue for them. She won by almost by 10 points in Maine. In fact Maine is really scary since Independent, Angus King is not young.

But as stated many times Collins, Manchin and even any shocked Democrat can't play that dumb knowing these people were lying. In fact I give Collins great credit of playing the spaced-out idiot who plays dumb to avoid any repercussions. As you stated the majority of 100 year olds in Maine <snark> are just as oblivious.

[Darththeo]

Two questions:
1) How often were they enforced?
2) What was the support for gay rights back in 2003 again?

Not often, but they were on the books and used to prevent certain people from running for office or holding positions of authority.
And less than the support for abortion rights is now.

[Lenonis]

Except for the fact that a marriage issued in one state is valid in all states and they have zero chance of banning gay marriage. Their "States Rights" argument doesn't get the same mileage as it used to when the majority is against them on these issues by large margins, it just gives them the ability to show how they really are and gives them enough rope to hang themselves both as a party and as a state.

Unless I am wrong and you can be married in one state by single in an other.

yeah, this is where my brain melts a bit. Let's just say the SCOTUS overturns it. what happens to the current marriages? I don't think these rulings go retroactive.

And then there is your point -- marriages are legal contracts and I think the BEST conservatives could get is you can't get a marriage license issued in that state, but if they go out of state and get married the state would have to recognize it.

Right?

I dunno - I don't think this one is as much of a slam dunk as conservatives think it is as the issues are pretty complex and unlike abortion which is a single event in time, marriages last over a period of time. Making it a much more complex thing to work out.

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Can I introduce you to Florida?

Florida criminalized homosexuality? News to me.

[Kathranis]

what by getting everything they want?

The pendulum is going to swing hard the other way, it's just a matter of time. The GOP is resorting to increasingly desperate means to force their agenda through and retain what power they can.

[Lenonis]

And less than the support for abortion rights is now.

It was a mistake to bring this up when I meant to point out the change over time as the significant factor, not the over/under in popularity. As I pointed out earlier I don't think the two are comparable in this way - the thing that matters IMO is the trending.

But hey, I could be wrong and in 5 years we could be in a real life handmaids tale scene. I just don't think it's going to happen. I think the conservatives got their gun rights and their abortion win. Although at risk I don't think they are going to outlaw gay rights. At worst they'd overturn the prior decision but that wouldn't necessarily make it illegal - there are other more complicated issues at play.

[Edge-]

I'm desperately looking for silver linings. May never happen, but it would be wild if the ruling - which largely eliminates the fight over health care rights and access to abortions - results in considerably depressed Republican turnout for a while. Roe was a hugely animating issue for them, and while there are others like CRT or the "MIGRANT CARAVAN" and other shit, none of it comes close to how impactful the fight over Roe has been for them.

It's most likely wishful thinking, but I'm looking for any reason to have some hope/optimism as millions of women have their bodily autonomy and right to make all their own health care decisions revoked from them by many states.

[Lenonis]

what by getting everything they want?

A satisfied voter base is not a base motivated to vote.

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results in considerably depressed Republican turnout for a while.

I don't know about a while...but unless something drastic happens in the next four months we might see the midterms turn out more favorable for Dems than we thought. Especially if gas prices go down and inflation slows.

Although why people insist on thinking the president controls those is beyond me.

[Fugus]

yeah, this is where my brain melts a bit. Let's just say the SCOTUS overturns it. what happens to the current marriages? I don't think these rulings go retroactive.

And then there is your point -- marriages are legal contracts and I think the BEST conservatives could get is you can't get a marriage license issued in that state, but if they go out of state and get married the state would have to recognize it.

Right?

I dunno - I don't think this one is as much of a slam dunk as conservatives think it is as the issues are pretty complex and unlike abortion which is a single event in time, marriages last over a period of time. Making it a much more complex thing to work out.

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Florida criminalized homosexuality? News to me.

It's a Pyrrhic Victory for them from what I can tell. I posted this elsewhere but will post it here as well.

My take on this. It won't work out the way the GOP hopes it will.

1) Mexico and Canada have already stated that they will allow Americans to enter for the day to get abortions.
2) Countless major companies have already gone to say they will pay to get their workers out of the state for procedures and will pay for it.
3) The Air Force and the Army has already talked about moving soldiers out of them to stop it from impacting our readiness.
4) Virtually every drug dealer in that state will start selling morning after pills. If they ban birth control, those dealers will have a new best selling product.
5) At the border of every one of those states will have places opening up to sell it similar to how fire works are sold at the border of states who banned them.

And in the process, the GOP has shown what they want and stand for and given more pressure to undo them.
Agreed on faith in the court, I have negative faith in them at this point and expect increasingly more to defy them with many states to defy them as well.

Their best (For them) outcome would be the equivalent of prohibition with it likely to be more along the lines of their war on drugs but with even less support. As far as dealing with this, the Democrats refuse. Just keep this in mind, Brett Kavanaugh committed perjury on live TV and is punishable by 5 years in prison and he is still under the statute of limitations, the DOJ could remove him NOW and throw him in prison, they just don't.

[Paranoid Android]

Sen. Josh Hawley calls the abortion ruling a watershed moment in American politics. He says he thinks there will be a sorting out in where people live and in voting patterns that he thinks will benefit Republicans with the electoral college.

Mr. coup attempt himself, Josh Hawley once more saying the quite part out loud. Hey get rid of those people who vote for one party just cause they can't get abortion and if we happen to get more electoral power out of it. Great!

[Darththeo]

It was a mistake to bring this up when I meant to point out the change over time as the significant factor, not the over/under in popularity. As I pointed out earlier I don't think the two are comparable in this way - the thing that matters IMO is the trending.

But hey, I could be wrong and in 5 years we could be in a real life handmaids tale scene. I just don't think it's going to happen. I think the conservatives got their gun rights and their abortion win. Although at risk I don't think they are going to outlaw gay rights. At worst they'd overturn the prior decision but that wouldn't necessarily make it illegal - there are other more complicated issues at play.

We have states passing laws where they can blanket deny any conversation about homosexuality.
We have states wanting to revoke same sex marriage.
We literally have a Supreme Court Justice saying they want to revisit a decision impacting gay rights.

[Lenonis]

It's a Pyrrhic Victory for them from what I can tell. I posted this elsewhere but will post it here as well.

As usual the people hurt the most from conservatives "wins" are poor people who can't afford to travel or who can't afford/aren't aware of ability to get abortion pills by mail.

[Rasulis]

Disney will cover travel expenses for employees seeking abortions

Is Florida going to kick Disney out of the State?

The irony of GOP politicians fighting against gun control by claiming that laws won't stop criminals from using guns. I can guarantee anti-abortion laws won't stop abortions. Case in point, Poland's abortion ban law has not reduced the number of abortions in Poland. Either by using pills or traveling out of the Poland.

[For_The_Horde]

A satisfied voter base is not a base motivated to vote.

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I don't know about a while...but unless something drastic happens in the next four months we might see the midterms turn out more favorable for Dems than we thought. Especially if gas prices go down and inflation slows.

Although why people insist on thinking the president controls those is beyond me.

They'll shift gears and go after something else next. Probably homosexuals, possibly immigrants, eventually interracial marriage, contraceptives would be a stretch but who's gonna stop them.

[Fugus]

As usual the people hurt the most from conservatives "wins" are poor people who can't afford to travel or who can't afford/aren't aware of ability to get abortion pills by mail.

Yeah, except that those poor people are also the ones dumb enough to keep voting for this. They cut their nose of to spite their face. Most of the poor people I know of who didn't support this are also smart enough to get around it.

The main ones I see supporting it largely are poor and uneducated outside of their profession and many times are largely hypocrites.

There is a reason why America has more abortions per capita than Canada does and if you notice where these abortions recipients are they are also the ones who push abstinence only education, pushing to put the bible in school, and have no minimum age requirement to get married.

[Lenonis]

@Lenonis they’re working up to it. First they ban any mention of it in school.

Sure, that's Florida being Florida. That's still MILES away from criminalizing it.

Then they ban gay marriage.

Except Florida can't. Constitutionally states MUST honor contracts from other states and marriage is a contract. The best Florida can do is refuse to issue marriage licenses for same sex marriage in their state.

Next they’ll ban homosexuality in general.

Will. Never. Happen. I mean seriously -- think this through. You think Disney will stay in Florida if this happens? You think any major business will open offices in Florida? C'mon...I mean I get the shock of today and how that can make people anxious about what's next but think about the consequences a state would face for banning homosexuality....it would be immense. It'll never happen.

Hell, people are publicly calling for the death of homosexuals. You think making it illegal is a step too far for them?

People think the world is flat. People think lizardmen run the country. People think celebrities are trafficking children out of non-existent basements. I'm not afraid of a bunch of crackpots.

And Thomas has already said they need to look into gay marriage and contraception.

Sure. So 1 justice. He wasn't joined in that statement by the others. And as I've said earlier even if they overturn it -- that doesn't mean it's illegal. It's more complex than the abortion situation.

[Lenonis]

We have states passing laws where they can blanket deny any conversation about homosexuality.

Yup. that's a thing happening. And it's unfortunate. It's also not the same as outlawing it.

We have states wanting to revoke same sex marriage.

We have states wanting to secede. Doesn't mean they can legally do it.

We literally have a Supreme Court Justice saying they want to revisit a decision impacting gay rights.

Yup. 1 justice. And just because that ruling gets overturned doesn't mean it's illegal everywhere.

I'm not saying there's no danger. I'm just saying it's not that simple and I don't think we're as close as people think. I also don't think there is nearly as much political will to go after the LBG part of LGBT as there was for abortion.

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They'll shift gears and go after something else next. Probably homosexuals, possibly immigrants, eventually interracial marriage, contraceptives would be a stretch but who's gonna stop them.

Sure - and immigration is probably an issue that has the same sort of motivating power - but they've been beating that drum already. Same thing with trans people - enough bigotry there to rally their base.

But gays? Interracial marriage? Contraceptives?

Naw. That's not even in the same zip code as the level of motivation the abortion topic brought.

[Fugus]

Historically they could refuse to recognize a marriage that was illegal by state law. We’re headed right back for that.

Ok, that will get interesting and show just how fucked up that state is. Not that they will care.

[Dezerte]

Regardless of where you stand on abortion - restricting and banning abortion is going to lead to more death and suffering. More women are going to have unsafe abortions and more women are going to die, more women are going to suffer through a pregnancy they don't want, more children are going to be born that are not wanted or loved by their parents and more children are going to end up in the system.