Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Gabriel]

Russians have basically lived under a dictatorship and been oppressed for so long that resistance has been effectively beaten out of them. They know the government is full of shit, but what are you going to do about it when speaking up ends up with you in a Siberian prison camp. So they just shrug and bear it, because from their point of view they have no other option.

You are partly right. russia is essentially the largest eugenics project in the world, where Stalin began a process of killing of all the people capable of independent thought and resistance to authority. The part you are mistaken is that they are some poor oppressed people. No, the end result of Stalin's little project is a nation of people that actively seek to be oppressed by a strongman and view lies and deceit not as vices, but as virtues.

If you had a magical button that when pressed made Putin and the entire russian government magically disappear, the russian people would would just build the exact same system again.

[Gorsameth]

You are partly right. russia is essentially the largest eugenics project in the world, where Stalin began a process of killing of all the people capable of independent thought and resistance to authority. The part you are mistaken is that they are some poor oppressed people. No, the end result of Stalin's little project is a nation of people that actively seek to be oppressed by a strongman and view lies and deceit not as vices, but as virtues.

If you had a magical button that when pressed made Putin and the entire russian government magically disappear, the russian people would would just build the exact same system again.

Because they have never known anything else. Its not different (almost) every other dictatorship that suddenly gains freedom and runs right back into another dictatorship. Democratic ideals need time to take root and decades upon decades of political indoctrination don't just disappear overnight.

[zealo]

While Russia is in no state to respond to it, it will be "interesting" how Turkey reacts.

By cheering Azerbaijan on, most likely, if that spirals into a war.

Turkish relations with Armenia are frosty at best despite normalisation attempts in recent time.

[Iphie]

Because they have never known anything else. Its not different (almost) every other dictatorship that suddenly gains freedom and runs right back into another dictatorship. Democratic ideals need time to take root and decades upon decades of political indoctrination don't just disappear overnight.

Exactly, as Lebed said:

“I am a Soviet man, and Yeltsin is a Soviet man - maybe our grandchildren will be different.”
-- Alexander Lebed

I take that to mean that at least 2 generations of democratic reforms would be needed before democracy could reign unchallenged in the Former, now hard on its way to Neo, USSR.

[Draco-Onis]

Exactly, as Lebed said:

“I am a Soviet man, and Yeltsin is a Soviet man - maybe our grandchildren will be different.”
-- Alexander Lebed

I take that to mean that at least 2 generations of democratic reforms would be needed before democracy could reign unchallenged in the Former, now hard on its way to Neo, USSR.

I think two generation is being too optimistic slow changes towards democracy is the key to success. In almost every case where democracy has been forced upon the populace it ends in disaster when the people who forced it leave the country to its own devices.

[Iphie]

I think two generation is being too optimistic slow changes towards democracy is the key to success. In almost every case where democracy has been forced upon the populace it ends in disaster when the people who forced it leave the country to its own devices.

Hence the "at least", I was however recently reminded of Chile and how their transition from dictatorship to democracy has been remarkable and they now stand out as a very healthy democracy in South America on par with Europe and North America. So it can be done relatively quickly.

[Draco-Onis]

Hence the "at least", I was however recently reminded of Chile and how their transition from dictatorship to democracy has been remarkable and they now stand out as a very healthy democracy in South America on par with Europe and North America. So it can be done relatively quickly.

Chile is different because Pinochet overthrew a democratically elected government with the help of the US government who kept him in power. The seed of their democracy was there previously and it's not popularity that kept their dictator in power.

[Gabriel]

Because they have never known anything else. Its not different (almost) every other dictatorship that suddenly gains freedom and runs right back into another dictatorship. Democratic ideals need time to take root and decades upon decades of political indoctrination don't just disappear overnight.

But it is not just political indoctrination. It is an entire cultural identity. You are not going to change that for hundreds of years.

[Iphie]

But it is not just political indoctrination. It is an entire cultural identity. You are not going to change that for hundreds of years.

I mildly disagree, I mean the German cultural identity was changed rather quickly as well. But without occupation I fully agree and that's just not going to happen.

[zorkuus]

I mildly disagree, I mean the German cultural identity was changed rather quickly as well.

Err... their worship of autocracy lasted only for a very short time. They weren't really like that before it. So the change back was "relatively" easy.
But with ruZZia, there is no changing back. They've always had a boner for autocracy.

[Poopymonster]

I mildly disagree, I mean the German cultural identity was changed rather quickly as well. But without occupation I fully agree and that's just not going to happen.

Germany got their dick stomped on in WW1. Once a certain Chancellor got in power and gave "Those People" promos, they got their dicks stomped on again in WW2.
Hey, Hanz. Maybe we shouldn't do that again. My father remembered the first time. I've been through it this time. This sucked. Let's make cars.

Russia never had their dicks totally stomped on once by a majority of the powers in the world, much less twice in a short period of time. They never had their "Let's make cars" moment.

[Makabreska]

Err... their worship of autocracy lasted only for a very short time. They weren't really like that before it. So the change back was "relatively" easy.
But with ruZZia, there is no changing back. They've always had a boner for autocracy.

Yup. Tzars, Lenin and the crew, Putler. They all kept Russians on a tight leash. No wonder they turned their glorious leaders into cult objects.

[Nymrohd]

I mildly disagree, I mean the German cultural identity was changed rather quickly as well. But without occupation I fully agree and that's just not going to happen.

I think it also has to do with competing influences in German identity. Prussian militarism was stomped out and the rest got an opportunity to bloom. I am not that well versed on the contributing cultures of Russia (and there must be many given the size of that country). Ultimately what I see in Russia is the importance of the bourgeoisie in transforming from a feudal to a democratic country and that never truly happened for them. There needs to be a moment of individualist empowerment. It doesn't have to sacrifice collectivism (it did not in most of Europe were democracies were strongly social). You can see it happening even in China (and that the Party is probably not enthusiastic about it but will struggle to squash it without destroying everything that brings them power). But in Russia I don't think they ever had a moment where every individual felt they had a right to power.

[Gabriel]

I mildly disagree, I mean the German cultural identity was changed rather quickly as well. But without occupation I fully agree and that's just not going to happen.

You are still somewhat off the target. The issue isn't just the "roooossia stronk!", but the entire culture of lies and corruption. To my knowledge, Germany never had that sort of thing, and the issue with russia I'm talking about has existed for hundreds of years at this point.

I have to go search through some archives to see if I have this photocopy of some book from more than hundreds years ago where the author was laying out the fundamental flaws with russian military and how it stems from the overall russian culture...

[zealo]

Err... their worship of autocracy lasted only for a very short time. They weren't really like that before it. So the change back was "relatively" easy.
But with ruZZia, there is no changing back. They've always had a boner for autocracy.

That "before it" where in itself something that only lasted a short time.

There were significant autocratic elements in the way Imperial Germany were run prior to WW1. They were not a constitutional monarchy in the sense of the likes of Britain being now, but one where the monarch wielded actual significant political power alongside the existence of the parliament, and made use of it too, at that.

[Corvus]

Russian state TV is saying up to 100,000 north Korean 'volunteers' could be sent to Ukraine to help fight and rebuild.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...to-help-russia

You know Russia is struggling when they are relying on NK to bail them out.

[Iphie]

Russian state TV is saying up to 100,000 north Korean 'volunteers' could be sent to Ukraine to help fight and rebuild.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...to-help-russia

You know Russia is struggling when they are relying on NK to bail them out.

I'm not sure how much effect those North Koreans would have, what is the quality of the North Korean army? However, I do note it's NK and not China which appears to be committing troops. I'm ALSO noting that this appears to be another way of not mobilizing. I do wonder what China thinks of this. I read somewhere that recently there had been a little bit of a spat between Pyongyang and Beijing because of some high profile anti Chinese statements in NK. (not sure where I read it, nor what the aftermath was.) Additionally...HOW are they going to be supported logistically?

Wouldn't this backfire though, like wouldn't this be akin to admitting the cause is lost?

[Santti]

Russian state TV is saying up to 100,000 north Korean 'volunteers' could be sent to Ukraine to help fight and rebuild.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...to-help-russia

You know Russia is struggling when they are relying on NK to bail them out.

Wow. Really scraping the bottom of the barrel here. Just embarrassing. Can't help but wonder how eager they are to fight, when Russians themselves are struggling with morale.

[Shadowferal]

I'm thinking that sending North Korean troops is China's way of appeasing Russia. That North Korean troops are likely going to bite it is a good 2 for 1 deal. Russia gets what they want and NK gets spanked.

[Kaleredar]

I'm thinking that sending North Korean troops is China's way of appeasing Russia. That North Korean troops are likely going to bite it is a good 2 for 1 deal. Russia gets what they want and NK gets spanked.

So they want to allow the US, via it supporting Ukraine with arms and logistics, to effectively corrode the military and financial strength of two foreign adversarial powers without risking a single American life to do it at the same time.

That's a bold strategy, Cotton.