ZM inconsistent RNG?

[8bithamster]

My initial assumption was - drop rate is intentionally decreased, when some WQ in north area is active, because it makes things easier and Blizzard don't want players to exploit it. But RNG's behaviour is way too inconsistent. If it would depend on WQ, if wouldn't be different on different characters.

Again.. Provide statistical evidence instead of assuming. That works better

[Progenitor Aquarius]

They drop every mob for me. You know what’s funny? There are multiple mobs stacked together, and you just step in and cast arcane explosion, and the quest is done.

I always get lucky. It’s been like this forever. Every week, loot boxes contain items that are upgraded. They are always the best in slot. I’m literally destined to win, although I'm so bad at this game. Haha!

[Deneios]

Well in tbc classic i had to go on a raptor genocide that the meteor that killed the dinosaurs would have been in awe of the carnage i had to do. 9 feathers relatively easy one in 3 kills. Then the rng decided to waste 30mins for the last one.

Rng can and will fuck you in the ass and your options are to either endure or stop playing

[Nzx]

RNG doesn't mean completely inconsistent, i.e. "Today every mob drops and and tomorrow you get 0 drops".

That is exactly what it means

[Squigglyo]

Dear Blizzard

Please make RNG more predictable.

Love WowIsDead64
<3

[MrLachyG]

side note: I am assuming you're talking about the sandworn chest or the domination cache, yeah? so who cares. nothing special drops from them, the only relevance either has is that the domination cache is required for an achievement and subsequent meta achievement. but it is classed as a rare drop, so getting any is lucky.

[WowIsDead64]

Again.. Provide statistical evidence instead of assuming. That works better

Everything is already counted. What this distribution say? Average value of number successes for yes/no based RNG value with probability p - is 1/p. But. It's true for infinite number of tries only. If number of tries is finite - this value can deviate from average with some chance. This distribution shows this chance. What I try to say? Exactly, what I tried to say before. This chance of deviation from average SHOULD BE CONSISTENT! If this chance is small today, then it shouldn't be big tomorrow. Because. Guess what? If number of tries is the same, but chance of deviation has changed, then there must be only one conclusion - PROBABILITY HAS CHANGED TOO! Simply because they're connected to each other by formula. Yeah. And if probability has changed - then RNG IS INCONSISTENT!



Please note several properties of this distribution:
1) Max chance - for expected value 1/p
2) More deviation from expected value 1/p - smaller chance is
3) Higher value of p - steeper drop of chance is
4) More tries - steeper drop of chance is

[shadowmatrix]

RNG means even if you have a 99% chance of success you can still fail constantly, each roll still has a 1% chance of failure. At least that's what my sniper in XCOM 2 said, WTF are you missing a 99% shot when the enemy just CRIT A 10% SHOT. Not that I'm bitter or anything.

[Lolites]

RNG is RNG, but drop rate should stay consistent. Shouldn't it? When it isn't - it isn't RNG.

you seem to struggle with meaning of word "random"...
it IS consistent, but consistent randomness means ocasionaly you will have cluster happening, bcs if something have 1% chance it doesnt mean after 100 tries it happens exactly once, it means after 100 MILIONS of tries it happens APROXIMATELY milion times, migh happen after one attempt might after 1000...

dropchance for mounts from ICC and ulduar are the same (about 1% afaik) yet it took me 517 attempts in ICC and 518 in ulduar (actualy happened the same week just on differerent char), bcs thats how randomness works

[MrLachyG]

you seem to struggle with meaning of word "random"...
it IS consistent, but consistent randomness means ocasionaly you will have cluster happening, bcs if something have 1% chance it doesnt mean after 100 tries it happens exactly once, it means after 100 MILIONS of tries it happens APROXIMATELY milion times, migh happen after one attempt might after 1000...

dropchance for mounts from ICC and ulduar are the same (about 1% afaik) yet it took me 517 attempts in ICC and 518 in ulduar (actualy happened the same week just on differerent char), bcs thats how randomness works

haha we have almost identical stories for those two mounts, except I got mine on the same character either side of the weekly reset

[terminaltrip421]

just hope they don't do what they did with diablo immortal where they appear to have instituted a hidden cooldown on drops - monster essence in particular. it appears to be about a 4-5 minute cooldown between drops.

[Lolites]

maybe that's what you are experiencing

he actualy claims the opposite, that they drop less during the WQ...
he just cant grasp concept of randomness, thats all

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haha we have almost identical stories for those two mounts, except I got mine on the same character either side of the weekly reset

i mena, when you play long enough...
the mount from Anzu i tried on my main about 100 times and nothing and then just randomly went there on alt for some transmog, which droped on my main almost every run but i couldnt "use" it, and i got the mount, but not the transmog

[WowIsDead64]

you seem to struggle with meaning of word "random"...
it IS consistent, but consistent randomness means ocasionaly you will have cluster happening, bcs if something have 1% chance it doesnt mean after 100 tries it happens exactly once, it means after 100 MILIONS of tries it happens APROXIMATELY milion times, migh happen after one attempt might after 1000...

dropchance for mounts from ICC and ulduar are the same (about 1% afaik) yet it took me 517 attempts in ICC and 518 in ulduar (actualy happened the same week just on differerent char), bcs thats how randomness works

My logic is - probability and deviation can't be high at the same time, cuz they're mutually exclusive.

Example:
Let's say you kill 30 mobs every day. And in 33% cases they drop 15 items or more. Ok. Let's reverse binomial distribution's formula and estimate item drop rate. My result - 44.5%. Now let's find chance, that exactly the same 30 mobs would drop nothing. My result is - 2*10^-8. That's 200/billion. Let's log on other character and BAM! Nothing drops. Nice try, Blizzard, your RNG is soooooo consistent.

[MrLachyG]

he actualy claims the opposite, that they drop less during the WQ...
he just cant grasp concept of randomness, thats all

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i mena, when you play long enough...
the mount from Anzu i tried on my main about 100 times and nothing and then just randomly went there on alt for some transmog, which droped on my main almost every run but i couldnt "use" it, and i got the mount, but not the transmog

same thing happened for me with Rivendare's Deathcharger. got it while levelling my 57th alt. just about fell out of my chair

[VitesseEOD]

TLDR; the OP doesn't understand how probability works

[pfbe]

Of all the things to complain, key fragments. I'd rather complain about getting the same loot on the vault three weeks in a row :P

[WowIsDead64]

Of all the things to complain, key fragments. I'd rather complain about getting the same loot on the vault three weeks in a row :P

Ohh. I've forgotten about it. Key fragment limitation - is the stupidest thing ever made by Blizzard. I can have any number of keys themselves, but can't loot more than 5 fragments, so I need to turn 5 to key first and only then loot next fragment? Man, that's genius.

P.S. Calculator can be used to calculate binomial distribution. Unfortunately there is no calculator for reversed function - it has to be brute forced.

[Soulwind]

To OP's credit, not that he deserves any, "RNG is RNG" is often not quite true in modern gaming, and when countries go "can we see the algorithm behind your lootboxes?" and companies reply with "we'd rather not release the game there", you know it's not just a dice roll.

That said, I doubt that quests drops of all things would have such a complex RNG system that it would vary from one character to another in a noticeable way.

It's possible that at certain peak hours they could up quests drops slightly in higher populated servers as to prevent people from crowding certain locations, but sharding should take care of that, so I don't see the benefit of doing it, and certainly not the opposite. And while every extra minute of play time may be statistically relevant, I don't think they'd go that far to milk people of their time. Legendaries? Mount drops? Maybe. But applying such systems to quest drops just sounds like a waste of development time.

[Temp name]

RNG gonna RNG.
If you roll a 10 sided die 10 times, you'll on average see every number once, but there's someone who'll only see 9s, and someone who'll only see 4s, doesn't mean that 9s or 4s are more likely to happen, just that RNG happened.

[Lolites]

same thing happened for me with Rivendare's Deathcharger. got it while levelling my 57th alt. just about fell out of my chair

still dont have that one, gave up at cca 700 attempts