Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Iphie]

It wasn't us, says Ukraine. (Cue "It wasn't me" by Shaggy)

Ok let's entertain that thought, if it wasn't the Ukrainians then who was it? Partisans as they suggest? Or, not impossible, it actually was russian incompetence, which they also suggest. Fact is an airbase got taken out and rather than capitalising on it the owner says 'my bad'!

[Kante]

If Russia is saying it, it's a lie.

At least 1 su-24 looks to be destroyed and given it was in a line of 6 planes parked side by side there is a good chance the others are damaged, if not destroyed as well.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1557082387087081473

They were actually fairly spaced out according to sat images, so the Russian version ( that changed couple of times ) of ordnance mishandling and then fuel depot fire is bullocks to be honest.


It was probably not ATACMS, Ukraine had a decent program for missiles and cruise missiles like the Hrim-2 SRBM 280-500km and Korshun Cruise Missile with ranges up to 700km (which is pretty much a copy of a Soviet Kh55 which Ukraine has the know how to manufacture) funding is available so is the technical data and with war time there is hardly any bureaucracy or they simply converted Neptunes (280km) to a land attack variant, long range strike capability without any backlash from Russia towards the West.

[Voidism]

There's speculation that it might have been Hrim-2 that took the Crimean base out.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hrim-2

[Corvus]

Given that there were two simultaneous massive explosions some distance apart after the base was already smoking from a number of places sort of rules out the 'accident' theory. And locals said there were a dozen large explosions.

The destroyed su-24 (which cost 24-25 million back in '97) was one of these 6 planes.



Odds aren't good for the others around it.

[Gabriel]

Could it be that the West is finally learning how to play the game? Strike at russia and then just deny everything?

"Little green drones on their holiday spontaneously destroyed an airfield."

[Iphie]

Could it be that the West is finally learning how to play the game? Strike at russia and then just deny everything?

"Little green drones on their holiday spontaneously destroyed an airfield."

The fact that the target of the attack denies the attack happened does help of course.

[Kaleredar]

It wasn't us, says Ukraine. (Cue "It wasn't me" by Shaggy)

Ok let's entertain that thought, if it wasn't the Ukrainians then who was it? Partisans as they suggest? Or, not impossible, it actually was russian incompetence, which they also suggest. Fact is an airbase got taken out and rather than capitalising on it the owner says 'my bad'!

Breeding mistrust within Russia would be another potent strategy, one that's far harder for "propaganda" to dispel. I'd imagine that Russian troops already see the rather stark difference between what's being sold back home and what they're actually experiencing. So now not only do they have to worry about being blown up on the front lines, they have to worry about being blown up where they thought they were safe. The enemy effectively switches from being the Ukrainians to also including a nebulous, faceless enemy they can't identify and that can strike them anywhere and that might be among them.

A good way to get already disillusioned troops to surrender, desert, or just plain stop caring. And all the internal propaganda in the world that paints a rosy picture back home (though I don't imagine that "we blew up our own airplanes by accident" is a particularly great rallying cry) can't change what the troops perceive, and they're the ones that actually have to do the fighting.

- - - Updated - - -

Could it be that the West is finally learning how to play the game? Strike at russia and then just deny everything?

"Little green drones on their holiday spontaneously destroyed an airfield."

Were there even a hint at that I think Russia would be leaning into that as hard as possible. They'll clearly make things up whenever it suits them, so I think even an iota of truth to "we're actively being attacked by NATO" would instantly become their new talking point.

I can't imagine morale is great within Russia, regardless of what any "polls" that people are forced to answer "yes I support the war" or risk getting disappeared say. A sudden "holy effin ess, the west is attacking us and we have proof! Rally to defend great motherland, comrade!" would probably get the Russian public much more on board. Certainly moreso than "whoops! We blew up our own stuff again!" would do.

For a sort of parallel, look at the United States in Vietnam. People's perception of the war that was being propped up by propaganda started to sour immensely when it became clear that Vietnam posed absolutely zero existential threat to the United States and people started to seriously inquire why the hell America was there. But if Vietnam had staged some sort of Attack on (what was considered) American soil? They would have been able to fervently rally people back to the cause.

[Iphie]

Breeding mistrust within Russia would be another potent strategy, one that's far harder for "propaganda" to dispel. I'd imagine that Russian troops already see the rather stark difference between what's being sold back home and what they're actually experiencing. So now not only do they have to worry about being blown up on the front lines, they have to worry about being blown up where they thought they were safe. The enemy effectively switches from being the Ukrainians to also including a nebulous, faceless enemy they can't identify and that can strike them anywhere and that might be among them.

A good way to get already disillusioned troops to surrender, desert, or just plain stop caring. And all the internal propaganda in the world that paints a rosy picture back home (though I don't imagine that "we blew up our own airplanes by accident" is a particularly great rallying cry) can't change what the troops perceive, and they're the ones that actually have to do the fighting.

Yeah, as I mentioned earlier (I think) russia can't even admit that Ukraine hit them there unless they want to admit they lied earlier. Per their propaganda anything long range the Ukrainians had was destroyed so either they admit they lied about that OR they admit incompetence. Choosing incompetence makes more sense than admitting to lying as that would make some people wonder what else they lied about, which isn't very useful for putin.

So damaging the morale might indeed be an objective and after the Sevastopol attack and now this I'd consider that a valid thought.

[Gabriel]

Were there even a hint at that I think Russia would be leaning into that as hard as possible. They'll clearly make things up whenever it suits them, so I think even an iota of truth to "we're actively being attacked by NATO" would instantly become their new talking point.

I can't imagine morale is great within Russia, regardless of what any "polls" that people are forced to answer "yes I support the war" or risk getting disappeared say. A sudden "holy effin ess, the west is attacking us and we have proof! Rally to defend great motherland, comrade!" would probably get the Russian public much more on board. Certainly moreso than "whoops! We blew up our own stuff again!" would do.

For a sort of parallel, look at the United States in Vietnam. People's perception of the war that was being propped up by propaganda started to sour immensely when it became clear that Vietnam posed absolutely zero existential threat to the United States and people started to seriously inquire why the hell America was there. But if Vietnam had staged some sort of Attack on (what was considered) American soil? They would have been able to fervently rally people back to the cause.

russia is the boy who cried wolf. Nobody would give a shit.

[Huehuecoyotl]

Okay, this might be going a little bit conspiracy theory, but bear with me.

So we believe that there has been corruption as every level of the Russian military. Budgets for upkeep not being spent on upkeep, but instead being sent off to buy yachts and houses. So a lot of the materials of war that are supposed to be available and ready to use, really aren't as a result. We also know that the upper echelons won't be happy if the result of that is them not getting the resources they are supposed to.

So you're in charge of a base that is supposed to have a certain level of ammunition available. The top brass ask for that amount to be sent. You know you've only got half of that, tops, and what's there isn't in good condition. Do you a) pass what you have, and fess up to the rest being missing? or b) fake a Ukrainian attack that "destroys" the ammunition, so you can only pass half of what you were supposed to have?

Pure speculation on my part. But Ukraine seems to be hitting a LOT of places that are on the limits of their range. Could it be cover-ups by people that have been fleecing money from the Russian military for years?

[Gabriel]

Okay, this might be going a little bit conspiracy theory, but bear with me.

So we believe that there has been corruption as every level of the Russian military. Budgets for upkeep not being spent on upkeep, but instead being sent off to buy yachts and houses. So a lot of the materials of war that are supposed to be available and ready to use, really aren't as a result. We also know that the upper echelons won't be happy if the result of that is them not getting the resources they are supposed to.

So you're in charge of a base that is supposed to have a certain level of ammunition available. The top brass ask for that amount to be sent. You know you've only got half of that, tops, and what's there isn't in good condition. Do you a) pass what you have, and fess up to the rest being missing? or b) fake a Ukrainian attack that "destroys" the ammunition, so you can only pass half of what you were supposed to have?

Pure speculation on my part. But Ukraine seems to be hitting a LOT of places that are on the limits of their range. Could it be cover-ups by people that have been fleecing money from the Russian military for years?

It is very plausible that these are coverups for embezzling military money.

[Iphie]

Okay, this might be going a little bit conspiracy theory, but bear with me.

So we believe that there has been corruption as every level of the Russian military. Budgets for upkeep not being spent on upkeep, but instead being sent off to buy yachts and houses. So a lot of the materials of war that are supposed to be available and ready to use, really aren't as a result. We also know that the upper echelons won't be happy if the result of that is them not getting the resources they are supposed to.

So you're in charge of a base that is supposed to have a certain level of ammunition available. The top brass ask for that amount to be sent. You know you've only got half of that, tops, and what's there isn't in good condition. Do you a) pass what you have, and fess up to the rest being missing? or b) fake a Ukrainian attack that "destroys" the ammunition, so you can only pass half of what you were supposed to have?

Pure speculation on my part. But Ukraine seems to be hitting a LOT of places that are on the limits of their range. Could it be cover-ups by people that have been fleecing money from the Russian military for years?

Not as far fetched as you'd expect, this has been floating about ever since those fuel depots got hit early on.

Meanwhile, penal legions are a thing again:

https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/09/europ...ntl/index.html

But I don't know how to process this:

They'll accept murderers, but not rapists, peadophiles, extremists or terrorists...

russian standards??

[Gorsameth]

It wasn't us, says Ukraine. (Cue "It wasn't me" by Shaggy)

Ok let's entertain that thought, if it wasn't the Ukrainians then who was it? Partisans as they suggest? Or, not impossible, it actually was russian incompetence, which they also suggest. Fact is an airbase got taken out and rather than capitalising on it the owner says 'my bad'!

Them saying 'wasn't us' doesn't mean much imo.
Didn't they also deny attacking the depots inside Russia some weeks ago, but it actually was them?

I'd probably just file it under Ukraine not wanting to say anything to maintain operational security.
Aka saying 'yes it was us, we have drone teams inside Russian territory's conducting attacks' directly puts those teams at greater risk as Russia hunts them harder.

[Iphie]

Them saying 'wasn't us' doesn't mean much imo.
Didn't they also deny attacking the depots inside Russia some weeks ago, but it actually was them?

I'd probably just file it under Ukraine not wanting to say anything to maintain operational security.
Aka saying 'yes it was us, we have drone teams inside Russian territory's conducting attacks' directly puts those teams at greater risk as Russia hunts them harder.

No I think that still hasn't been figured out. Especially since the drone was a commercially available drone from China iirc. The thing is though, as far as we know Ukraine doesn't have anything with that range, so them saying it wasn't us is not implausible. (It all depends on whether or not the US gave the 300 km rockets which, as far as we know, they didn't)

And tbh I don't think small drones would wreak that much havoc.

[Zaydin]

Meanwhile, penal legions are a thing again:

https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/09/europ...ntl/index.html

But I don't know how to process this:



russian standards??

I already posted that.

I had joked early on about how long it would take Putler to get desperate enough to draft convicts and the answer now is six months.

[Gorsameth]

No I think that still hasn't been figured out. Especially since the drone was a commercially available drone from China iirc. The thing is though, as far as we know Ukraine doesn't have anything with that range, so them saying it wasn't us is not implausible. (It all depends on whether or not the US gave the 300 km rockets which, as far as we know, they didn't)

And tbh I don't think small drones would wreak that much havoc.

small drone sets off fuel or ammo stockpile. That go's boom and chain reactions from there.

Doesn't seem that unreasonable to me.

Its something that shouldn't happen with proper storage but hey, its Russia so proper storage probably didn't exist.

[Iphie]

I already posted that.

I had joked early on about how long it would take Putler to get desperate enough to draft convicts and the answer now is six months.

I'm more surprised by the standards...like wut?

[Twdft]

Were there even a hint at that I think Russia would be leaning into that as hard as possible. They'll clearly make things up whenever it suits them, so I think even an iota of truth to "we're actively being attacked by NATO" would instantly become their new talking point.

Not so sure about that. The only reason NATO is not fighting in Ukraine is that it isn't officially a war party. If ruSSia comes out and officially declares "we are attacked by NATO, now it's on fuckers" NATO can drop the restraint and reply "blyat, wait a minute we're on our way" and join the war. I don't think ruSSia actually wants that.

[Yunru]

Okay, this might be going a little bit conspiracy theory, but bear with me.

So we believe that there has been corruption as every level of the Russian military. Budgets for upkeep not being spent on upkeep, but instead being sent off to buy yachts and houses. So a lot of the materials of war that are supposed to be available and ready to use, really aren't as a result. We also know that the upper echelons won't be happy if the result of that is them not getting the resources they are supposed to.

So you're in charge of a base that is supposed to have a certain level of ammunition available. The top brass ask for that amount to be sent. You know you've only got half of that, tops, and what's there isn't in good condition. Do you a) pass what you have, and fess up to the rest being missing? or b) fake a Ukrainian attack that "destroys" the ammunition, so you can only pass half of what you were supposed to have?

Pure speculation on my part. But Ukraine seems to be hitting a LOT of places that are on the limits of their range. Could it be cover-ups by people that have been fleecing money from the Russian military for years?

Pretty high chance. They know they are losing the war, so to avoid punishment for greed, they make up the accident and blame it on rockets.
Heck some of those people probaly tiped off the ukraine army so they destroy it (at least those that are well hidden), not to mention that Ukraine wastes ammo on those emptry targets, saving lives in progress for russan army.

[Masark]

I'm more surprised by the standards...like wut?

They're just keeping the rapists, etc. as a reserve to be recruited later when they run low on bodies again.