Is this leak to be trusted?

[letgoit]

The announcement regarding Wrath Classic lines up perfectly, which all but confirms this.

[Lochton]

It's not the first expansion to have a November release, doesn't seem that weird at all. Shadowlands also released end of November in 2020 (though one week earlier than what is listed on this leak) and raids launched the second week of December.

If this release date is accurate and you assume they would use a similar raid release schedule to SL, this would push a raid release into mid-December. Given it's the holiday season, I could well see the devs pushing the raids to beginning of January in that scenario.

You sound just like the guys that swore it would be a 2023 release.

This isn't out of the ordinary for Blizz to launch in this time window. Heck, Shadowlands even roughly launched at this time... granted it wasn't the original launch date announced, but it also had more testing time. If anything, I'd be inclined to believe the internal release date has changed over time due to the game's updates windows this expansion and axing content that Blizz still claims was 'all planned'. This release date would be almost exactly 2 years since Shadowlands final release date occurred, I wouldn't be shocked if this release date was decided with that in mind.

The irony is that I agree that this release window is pretty bad from a progression standpoint, and Blizz thought the exact same thing about this exact release window... in the past. No one likes progression raids during Christmas/New Years break because it wrecks havoc with rosters, and it probably hurts RWF-oriented guilds the most. Best Blizz can likely do is delay the raid release as long as possible, maybe even a couple weeks to "allow for leveling without the pressure of progression," or whatever they stated the last time they did such a thing. While that's certainly a concern, the reason it's a concern at all is due to the nature of the game's design philosophy, but that's another discussion.

Short version: I could easily see this as legit.

Only reason I see it as a bit early is more that we're not even in a Beta window yet, with Pre-patch slated for October then. So, of course, I'm feeling a bit worried about it. As for a raiding view, could honestly say 'screw it' and not care but would've thought a Jan 2023 would be a good start for raiding.

[saixilein]

It would be pretty much identical to Castel Nathria IF they open the raid immediately the next week. On SL release they had two weeks between launch and normal mode raid, and the raid race still cut it dangerously close to Christmas.

So DF would need to not only release the raid 1 week earlier, but also make DAMN SURE that the race doesn't go even a day or two over time or people will be majorly pissed (not to mention that WoW devs working on Xmas to fix inevitable final-encounter bugs is a big problem, too).

They'd have to either shift launch forward by at least a week, or push the entire raid tier/season1 to the new year, which means a whole MONTH (more likely 5 weeks) without raids or M+.

Or I guess it could be an Emerald Nightmare tier, and the raid just falls over in two days.

Yikes either way.

I pref first one because i give a huge fck about world first race. If the game is more important to some Players then spending time with family you should think about yourself.

Outside of this bubble here barely anyone care about world first.

[Monteverdi]

I wouldn't put any stock in the leak simply because it got the prepatch date right, however this leak looks like any number of similar change management memos I've seen in my professional life. It's either a legit leak, or the person who faked it works in a field where they're familiar with these kinds of thing (not a crazy stretch by any means)

[Biomega]

I wouldn't put any stock in the leak simply because it got the prepatch date right, however this leak looks like any number of similar change management memos I've seen in my professional life. It's either a legit leak, or the person who faked it works in a field where they're familiar with these kinds of thing (not a crazy stretch by any means)

It's also entirely possible that this is legit but NOT accurate - because things do change over time.

[Monteverdi]

It's also entirely possible that this is legit but NOT accurate - because things do change over time.

100%. If this is a legit change memo, this shit changes all the time.

[delus]

Yes, because he probably also thinks that 2022 is too early to release the expansion.

I mean, they're shooting for November or December, and we don't even have Demon Hunter or Monk Talents on the ALPHA? It's not even in BETA yet. Normally the beta for these expansions goes on for a few months. I mean, they're still making dramatic updates to class design at this stage in the Alpha.

Not only that, but Wrath Classic comes out in September. I would have figured they'd have wanted to stagger that a bit more. But oh well.

I would say that it's good since Ulduar has been covered a long time in retail wow as a time walking raid and Naxx is just a rehash.

[Magistrate]

Only reason I see it as a bit early is more that we're not even in a Beta window yet, with Pre-patch slated for October then. So, of course, I'm feeling a bit worried about it. As for a raiding view, could honestly say 'screw it' and not care but would've thought a Jan 2023 would be a good start for raiding.

I think the beta is going to be more a formality than anything honestly. I don't think they functionally need it for anything this time. This expac is way ahead and the way their trickle testing content makes me feel this has been a much more streamlined and controlled alpha.

[Hctaz]

I think DH and/or monk talents will be released today for what that's worth. They are going off a set scheduled released, you make it sound like they are scrambling around trying to get things finished in time.

If they are going off a set scheduled release, then how are they adjusting talents based on feedback? Wouldn't they have already needed to plan those out in advance? But they clearly can't do that because they are actively changing and updating things like Hunters and Warriors still due to feedback being received.

So, yes, it does sound like they are scrambling around trying to get things finished in time.

[MoanaLisa]

It's a leak from an unnamed source. Of course it's not to be trusted. It may make sense and it might even be right but trusting leaks on this forum or any other is sort of a fool's game.

[plz delete account]

It's not the first expansion to have a November release, doesn't seem that weird at all. Shadowlands also released end of November in 2020 (though one week earlier than what is listed on this leak) and raids launched the second week of December.

If this release date is accurate and you assume they would use a similar raid release schedule to SL, this would push a raid release into mid-December. Given it's the holiday season, I could well see the devs pushing the raids to beginning of January in that scenario.

Wait

I've never seen this super mod before


Congrats on the promotion

[Flatspriest]

Would love it but a Dragonflight release at end of November feels a bit weird. Would've thought mid-December, with raid tiers starting in January.

A great many expansions have been released in late November with the raiding starting in early January.

[Stickiler]

If they are going off a set scheduled release, then how are they adjusting talents based on feedback? Wouldn't they have already needed to plan those out in advance?

No, they wouldn't need to have planned out the talents in advance, not that precisely, anyway. What I can basically guarantee is they've got a deadline for when the talent balancing needs to end to make it for the 10.0 release. Up to that date, the designers and developers assigned to the class and talent team can change and tweak things as much as they'd like, until the deadline, at which point it'll be locked in and further changes go to a x.0.5 or x.1 patch. So if they're tweaking things, then it means their deadline hasn't passed yet.

[lordjust]

A bit over a month to let people level and what not. How long after the launch of an expansion do they open the raids?

In the past raids opened 2 weeks after launch. So if it releases november 28th raids would open december 12th with mythic on december 19th which wouldn't work for the RWF because it's too close to christmas.

Opening the raids earlier wouldn't be a good move because people were already pissed at the start of shadowlands that they opened raids too close to christmas. Delaying them to early january would mean 6 weeks without raids. Don't know if DF has enough content without raids, m+ and pvp season to bridge those weeks. Yes, we have renown tracks for each faction, we have dragonriding to upgrade and lots of crafting stuff and you can't craft the mythic ilvl stuff without mythic being open, because you need reagents that drop in the raid.

Yes, because he probably also thinks that 2022 is too early to release the expansion.

I mean, they're shooting for November or December, and we don't even have Demon Hunter or Monk Talents on the ALPHA? It's not even in BETA yet. Normally the beta for these expansions goes on for a few months. I mean, they're still making dramatic updates to class design at this stage in the Alpha.

Not only that, but Wrath Classic comes out in September. I would have figured they'd have wanted to stagger that a bit more. But oh well.

Remember, they fundamentally changed their approach to alpha and beta testing. They did more internal testing before putting stuff in the alpha and they have focused testing on alpha. This week is the last focused testing week we know of (they said alpha will be 6 weeks) so they tested everything they wanted to test and beta is more of numbers tuning and testing with a larger population. In alpha we're almost at a content complete stage that we previously we're at 6-8 weeks before pre-patch.

Monk and DH talent trees are still missing but are datamined so we should see them this or next week like with all the other trees that were datamined previously. Also with each tree they released, every new one was better than the one before and doesn't need as many changes.

[Val the Moofia Boss]

Plausible, but I'd imagine that Blizzard would announce the release date of a WoW expansion at least 3 months in advance so that people can schedule to take work off.

[rrayy]

I had Nov 28th as my guess as it fits well, I hope it's true.

e: Adding my reasoning copy/paste to what I sent to a friend a bit back - if anyone wants to correct anything (from the UK so not 100% on American dates) or suggest otherwise feel free as I want to book it off work at some point.



e2: Worth noting these dates are for UK release (11pm Monday night) if following the previous few launches.

e3: Just for info:
Shadowlands launched Nov 23rd/24th 2020, with Castle Nathria N/HC launching on the 8th/9th Dec (2 weeks after release), and Mythic 15/16th Dec (3 weeks after release).

Only the government takes Vateran's Day off. It is not a major holiday and not a factor to Blizzard.

[Hctaz]

Also with each tree they released, every new one was better than the one before and doesn't need as many changes.

Is that why DKs are getting ignored again?
I dunno just seems weird. I've seen them take Hunter, Warrior, and Rogue feedback seriously but they've not really implemented or discussed any of the DK feedback in particular.

I also can't provide them with any credible feedback because I'm not in the Alpha which also seems a little disingenuous. Only people who were accepted into the Alpha are allowed to provide feedback on the class talent trees despite us having access and understanding to them elsewhere? If they take more feedback in the beta then that's fine, but I'll be disappointed if it's only numbers tuning. Esp since DH and Monks have not been able to provide any official feedback to them.

- - - Updated - - -

Different classes have different devs working on them. They all have their different styles of how they do things as we have noticed some are more active with the feedback than others. It sounds like you want it to sound like they are scrambling around trying to get things finished in time tbh.

Why would I want it to be rushed or sound like it would be rushed?

This is the first expansion I've been excited for since Legion, and I want it to be as good as it can be.
It does seem like they're rushing things along compared to their previous expansions, but I obviously can't say for certain as I've not worked at Blizzard to verify the normal timelines of internal work.

I just know that, in Legion, there were definitely specs that were released in a poor state despite countless amounts of feedback given that would have absolutely fixed many of the issues.
Maybe my concern is just that whatever devs are working on Death Knights in particular seem to be extremely keen on ignoring most solid feedback as I swear one or more of their specs end up being shafted hard on release.

[Compher]

This leak should not be trusted. No leak should ever be trusted, and no date is ever set until it's officially announced, and even then it could move.

[Sorrowseer]

Be nice not to revolve the release around dungeon lads and raider bro's.

[Soisoisoi]

Only the government takes Vateran's Day off. It is not a major holiday and not a factor to Blizzard.

Ah I thought it was, thanks for clarifying!