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  1. #1
    Herald of the Titans Aurabolt's Avatar
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    Question Are there estimates on how many people died during the Fourth War?

    Given the Alliance and the Horde had a full-scale war spanning two islands (Kul Tiras + Zandalar), Eastern Kingdoms and Kalimdor (and Broken Isles if you include those Allied Races), we're talking minimum several million people combined. Oh and of course I'm excluding those who died from the burning of Teldrassil obviously.

    For context, I'm playing through BFA for the first time this summer and I'm doing the Alliance side first. Given the scale of just Horde casualties plus the later divide within the Horde, they had to have lost over 70% of their fighting power during the Fourth War. On the flipside, Stormwind depleted its military so quickly, Anduin had to conscript farmers.

    Lorewise, the Alliance won both battlefronts and headed off The Barrens being the third planned battlefront. We know from her commentary after the fact Sylvanas wanted the war to continue for a bit longer. Siege of Orgrimmar 2.0 probably would have won the war for Sylvanas had it happened. By the time Saurfang challenged Sylvanas outside Orgrimmar, Anduin was only able to spare a single regiment and they were there mostly as a show of force. If Sylvanas didn't accept Saurfang's challenge and just blighted everyone outside Orgimmar--obviously killing Anduin in the process--it would stopped being a war of attrition and become a war of extermination. In hindsight, it probably would have made The Jailer's plans for Anduin much easier had he died then and there.

    Speaking of, we probably won't know how many people died while the Scourge were rampaging across Azeroth and more so given the events of Shadowlands spanned two years. The Alliance and Horde forces were already devastated from the Fourth War so...yeah. Aside from the Jailer, the only force on Azeroth that became stronger because of the Fourth War was the Ebon Blade. They recovered the bodies of soldiers at every battlefront and even raided cemeteries for bodies that were later raised as Death Knights.

    I can imagine Alliance Death Knights telling their living allies they'll make sure Sylvanas can't raise them knowing they had orders to bring back bodies to be raised as Dealth Knights:

    Newly raised Void Elf Death Knight: I remember being killed in Nazmir. How am I here?
    Night Elf Death Knight: You were chosen for a greater purpose. Welcome to the Knights of the Ebon Blade, brother ^_^

    ...Sweet irony. LOL.
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  2. #2
    Yes, you are right about that. Realistically right now there should basically no soldiers left on either side, maybe 5% of what was there before legion.
    For all wet know the nightelves are nearly exciting now as well, maybe a few hundred left, if even that.

  3. #3
    Moderator Aucald's Avatar
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    No real estimates that I know of, but the recent bumper crop of Death Knights did indeed come from the Fourth War, specifically the Battle of Dazar'alor. Nazgrim specifically was tasked by Bolvar, the current Lich King, to head the Isle of Zandalar to gather up both the Alliance and Horde dead while avoiding the attention of Bwonsamdi.
    "We're more of the love, blood, and rhetoric school. Well, we can do you blood and love without the rhetoric, and we can do you blood and rhetoric without the love, and we can do you all three concurrent or consecutive. But we can't give you love and rhetoric without the blood. Blood is compulsory. They're all blood, you see." ― Tom Stoppard, Rosencrantz and Guildenstern are Dead

  4. #4
    To me, a lot of WoW history makes more sense if we assume that actual death counts are usually pretty low.

    Reflecting on some major past tragedies that were seen as tremendous losses of life or described massacre but couldn't have been THAT many people:

    - Wrathgate
    - Broken Shore
    - Camp Taurajo

    Meanwhile larger ones (theramore) and biggest ones (Tredassil) tend to be swept under the rug and minimized. And, both of these were catastrophic and quick, rather than something where a majority retreat was plausible.

    And yet also still, Stratholme is regarded as a huge loss of life and I don't think it has ever been really swept under the rug, the story has just moved on.

    WoW is pretty inconsistent on these things, but I think the things that are described as tragedies still generally paints a picture that in most military encounters, the most likely outcome is escape or retreat (despite the victory or death battlecry) or mercy of not fighting until both sides are wiped-out and instead over objectives (see every playable battleground). That would also explain how we have so many prominent heroes on all sides that have survived countless battles. Additionally, most tragedies did not have clear direct objectives for the aggressor beyond death, and are seen as awful--again suggesting to me major deathcounts may not be part of the average battle.

    And, going by recent shadowlands lore, we know one of the objectives of the fourth war was simply to have people die. But we know from the timelines that there's been a ton of horrible tragedies and wars in a very short time on azeroth. One would think that if as many people died in Azeroth in war as common sense suggests, the jailor wouldn't need yet another war to be empowered further. The death count over the last ~30 years must be fairly small.
    Last edited by Firefall; 2022-08-26 at 04:17 PM.

  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by Aurabolt View Post
    Given the Alliance and the Horde had a full-scale war spanning two islands (Kul Tiras + Zandalar), Eastern Kingdoms and Kalimdor (and Broken Isles if you include those Allied Races), we're talking minimum several million people combined.
    You're conflating with WW2 levels of mass death (a historical anomaly which has tinged pop culture's depiction of war) with actual medieval warfare, which was relatively bloodless. During the War of the Roses, you had nobles fighting each other whilist the rest of England was completely unaffected. Most people were literally untouched by the war. Nothing changed. They heard that there was some fight in a field far off somewhere and that was that.

    The most devastating wars in recent Azerothian history would have been the first three Warcraft games, where you had multiple human kingdoms being almost completely genocided by orcs or zombies. After that you have a period of constant low level skirmishing activity (Vanilla through WotLK), which a couple years of heightened warfare (Cata through MoP) but again most of these battles are happening out on the frontier with only a single city being bombed (Theramore). Then you're back to skirmishing (Legion) with again another mass casualty event (Teldrassil). In BFA you have some battles like MoP but again it's not WW2 levels. There aren't firebombing campaigns of multiple cities or mass starvation or widespread illness in the armies.

  6. #6
    Herald of the Titans Aurabolt's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Val the Moofia Boss View Post
    You're conflating with WW2 levels of mass death (a historical anomaly which has tinged pop culture's depiction of war) with actual medieval warfare, which was relatively bloodless. During the War of the Roses, you had nobles fighting each other whilist the rest of England was completely unaffected. Most people were literally untouched by the war. Nothing changed. They heard that there was some fight in a field far off somewhere and that was that.

    The most devastating wars in recent Azerothian history would have been the first three Warcraft games, where you had multiple human kingdoms being almost completely genocided by orcs or zombies. After that you have a period of constant low level skirmishing activity (Vanilla through WotLK), which a couple years of heightened warfare (Cata through MoP) but again most of these battles are happening out on the frontier with only a single city being bombed (Theramore). Then you're back to skirmishing (Legion) with again another mass casualty event (Teldrassil). In BFA you have some battles like MoP but again it's not WW2 levels. There aren't firebombing campaigns of multiple cities or mass starvation or widespread illness in the armies.
    That's why I made the contrast between a war of attrition (consitent mass casualties/death/destruction inflicted and sustained by both sides) and a war of extermination (one side overwhelming and killing the other side, usually after the latter has either surrendered or is unable to defend itself) consistently in my OP. WWII was a war of attrition in both theaters. The genocides in Darfur and Rwanda were wars of extermination. Ukraine's a war of attrition that could flip to a war of extermination.

    The Fourth War was a world war in the literal sense though most of the fighting was concentrated in/around Kul Tiras, Zandalar, Arathi Highlands and Darkshore. Both sides sent forces from all their member nations. Plus, both sides almost doubled their fighting power when they recruited Allied Races:



    • Highmountain Tauren: Likely numbered A bit under a milion post-Legion.
    • Nightborne: After their civil war during Legion, they came together and likely numbered over a million.
    • Zandalar: The Horde's biggest gain obviously. Likely numbered one or two million added to the Horde's forces.
    • Mag'har Orc: Probably the second-smallest added to the Horde at a bit under half a million.
    • Vulpera: Likely the smallest with a bit over 100,000.

    This infusion of reinforcements helped sustain the Horde during the Fourth War especially with the battlefronts.


    • Void Elves: I suspect when the war broke out, a lot of disillusioned Blood Elves decided to defect because they disagreed with the war. Umbric's offering was a convenient off ramp for many. My guess is they numbered a little under half a million.
    • Lightforged Draenei: We know for sure they numbered far fewer than their kin who lived on Azeroth. I'm sure they numbered less than 100,000 but were probably able to increase their numbers a little by converting their kin on Azeroth who volunteered to undergo the transformation.
    • Kul Tiran Human: The Alliance's biggest gain obviously. Likely numbered over a milion added to the Alliance's forces.
    • Dark Iron Dwarf: I don't think we'll ever really know but their numbers are definitely fewer than the Bronzebeard Clan's but more than the Wildhammer Clan's. They probably added a bit over 100,000 when they joined the Alliance.
    • Mechagnome: Easily the smallest if we're talking pure cyborgs, I'd guess they added around 10,000.


    The infusion of reinforcements helped the Alliance stay in the fight especially when they raided Dazar'alor.


    I get those who say it's not a good idea to make real world comparisons but I am being realistic about population levels. I'm also excluding Adventurers from sides on that note because if I did, I'd have to increase my guesstimates by 20% to 30%. Nevermind the obvious fact the Forsaken were displaced and the popular theory is the Night Elves lost 30% to 40% of their people when Teldrassil was burned (a bit over half were successfully evacuated).

    ...For both sides, lots of babies need to start getting made =P



    Quote Originally Posted by Aucald View Post
    No real estimates that I know of, but the recent bumper crop of Death Knights did indeed come from the Fourth War, specifically the Battle of Dazar'alor. Nazgrim specifically was tasked by Bolvar, the current Lich King, to head the Isle of Zandalar to gather up both the Alliance and Horde dead while avoiding the attention of Bwonsamdi.
    Oh, yeah Bwon for sure would've taken issue with Zandalari and Darkspear dead being raised as Death Knights. He probably figured out when he was doing a body count the numbers didn't add up but he also likely knew the Arbiter at the time was AFK. He probably just assumed at the time the discrepencies went to the Maw or were rezzed and didn't bother looking into it.
    Last edited by Aurabolt; 2022-08-26 at 09:21 PM.
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  7. #7
    Moderator Aucald's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Aurabolt View Post
    Oh, yeah Bwon for sure would've taken issue with Zandalari and Darkspear dead being raised as Death Knights. He probably figured out when he was doing a body count the numbers didn't add up but he also likely knew the Arbiter at the time was AFK. He probably just assumed at the time the discrepencies went to the Maw or were rezzed and didn't bother looking into it.
    Bwonsamdi would've definitely called dibs on anyone in the general vicinity of Zandalar. Hell, in Shadows of the Horde he tries to claim the soul of a human, Tyrathan Khort, simply for being in his general vicinity all the way at Pandaria, despite Khort having zero to do with troll beliefs or customs. I'd wager the confusion with the Arbiter and him having his hands busy holding back souls from the Maw was all that allowed Nazgrim to sweep in under the radar and abscond with Fourth War's dead.
    "We're more of the love, blood, and rhetoric school. Well, we can do you blood and love without the rhetoric, and we can do you blood and rhetoric without the love, and we can do you all three concurrent or consecutive. But we can't give you love and rhetoric without the blood. Blood is compulsory. They're all blood, you see." ― Tom Stoppard, Rosencrantz and Guildenstern are Dead

  8. #8
    Herald of the Titans Aurabolt's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Aucald View Post
    Bwonsamdi would've definitely called dibs on anyone in the general vicinity of Zandalar. Hell, in Shadows of the Horde he tries to claim the soul of a human, Tyrathan Khort, simply for being in his general vicinity all the way at Pandaria, despite Khort having zero to do with troll beliefs or customs. I'd wager the confusion with the Arbiter and him having his hands busy holding back souls from the Maw was all that allowed Nazgrim to sweep in under the radar and abscond with Fourth War's dead.
    Darion probably wouldn't have cared what Bwon thought but just didn't want the extra work dealing with a pissed off Loa of Death would've brought.


    For me the most interesting juxtoposition is and always will be Draenei and Lightforged Draenei DKs, more so if they were a Priest or Paladin in life. They literally become what they spent their lives fighting. I also figured it would have been really, really difficult to raise Lightforged Draenei as DKs--let alone in large numbers because of their racial in which they literally explode when they die and presumably their souls are protected by the Light. After all, Darion was struck down just for trying to rez Tirion Fordring. You'd think LF Draenei would've had the same kind of protection at least.


    Quote Originally Posted by Firefall View Post
    To me, a lot of WoW history makes more sense if we assume that actual death counts are usually pretty low.


    Reflecting on some major past tragedies that were seen as tremendous losses of life or described massacre but couldn't have been THAT many people:


    - Wrathgate
    - Broken Shore
    - Camp Taurajo


    Meanwhile larger ones (theramore) and biggest ones (Tredassil) tend to be swept under the rug and minimized. And, both of these were catastrophic and quick, rather than something where a majority retreat was plausible.


    And yet also still, Stratholme is regarded as a huge loss of life and I don't think it has ever been really swept under the rug, the story has just moved on.


    WoW is pretty inconsistent on these things, but I think the things that are described as tragedies still generally paints a picture that in most military encounters, the most likely outcome is escape or retreat (despite the victory or death battlecry) or mercy of not fighting until both sides are wiped-out and instead over objectives (see every playable battleground). That would also explain how we have so many prominent heroes on all sides that have survived countless battles. Additionally, most tragedies did not have clear direct objectives for the aggressor beyond death, and are seen as awful--again suggesting to me major deathcounts may not be part of the average battle.


    And, going by recent shadowlands lore, we know one of the objectives of the fourth war was simply to have people die. But we know from the timelines that there's been a ton of horrible tragedies and wars in a very short time on azeroth. One would think that if as many people died in Azeroth in war as common sense suggests, the jailor wouldn't need yet another war to be empowered further. The death count over the last ~30 years must be fairly small.

    If you consider a few thousand people being killed at the Wrath Gate and tens of thousands of people being killed at the Broken Shore "low", ok. You need to keep in mind what we're told or shown in-game is just the tip of the iceberg in terms of numbers. For example, Stormwind and Orgrimmar are each likely at least 5 times bigger than in-game.

    Taurajo probably had over 5,000 Tauren living there plus people who happened to be passing through. Most escaped but some were killed when the Alliance attacked. Theramore probably had over 250,000 people when it was bombed. Startholme...if I remember right, its population was said to be around 400,000 and it was the biggest city in the kingdom outside the Capital (Lordaeron). When Arthas saw the plague-laced grain, he knew from firsthand experience an infected person could turn VERY quickly. He also knew he didn't have much time even if only a small number of people ate the plague-laced grain. He was forced to make an impossible choice: Kill everyone or quarantine the city and wait for people to start turning en masse. Had he done the latter, the sheer numbers would have quickly overwhelmed his and Uther's forces and the newly raised Scourge would've wiped out Lordaeron shortly afterward. Quel'Thalas probably wouldn't have fallen though so there's that.
    ...Ok, time to change the ol' Sig ^_^

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  9. #9
    Don't expect Blizzard to keep up with numbers like death tolls when they pop entire armies out of thin air.
    Quote Originally Posted by Alex86el View Post
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    Quote Originally Posted by Toho View Post
    The Horde is basically the guy that gets mad that the guy that they just beat the crap out of had the audacity to bleed on them.
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  10. #10
    The Unstoppable Force Lorgar Aurelian's Avatar
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    Doudt there will ever be numbers but there must have been huge losses between the alliance needing to conscript farmers and sylvanas saying they had so few troops at the gates of org that they were brining injured ones.
    All I ever wanted was the truth. Remember those words as you read the ones that follow. I never set out to topple my father's kingdom of lies from a sense of misplaced pride. I never wanted to bleed the species to its marrow, reaving half the galaxy clean of human life in this bitter crusade. I never desired any of this, though I know the reasons for which it must be done. But all I ever wanted was the truth.

  11. #11
    Considering blizz is absolutely abysmal with population numbers, it is better this way.

  12. #12
    well, with how blizzard is hand-waving away the time skip with "nothing big happened", don't expect this to ever matter in the story.

  13. #13
    Herald of the Titans Aurabolt's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by voidox View Post
    well, with how blizzard is hand-waving away the time skip with "nothing big happened", don't expect this to ever matter in the story.
    Well the fact that they not only confirmed there was a time skip but told us it was three years--after people kept asking about it--speaks to the fact if you keep pressing them on the details, they'll share that info. If not solid numbers then estimates. Because with some races more than others, they legit should be on the brink of extinction right now.


    Quote Originally Posted by Lorgar Aurelian View Post
    Doudt there will ever be numbers but there must have been huge losses between the alliance needing to conscript farmers and sylvanas saying they had so few troops at the gates of org that they were brining injured ones.
    Which tells me both factions were on the brink of imploding (Alliance) or collapse (horde) due to jusrt the massive loss of life. The Armistice is mutually benefiicial since both factions need to start making a LOT of babies ASAP to replace their losses. The Kirin Tor and/or Bronze Dragonflight could probably magically accelerate pregnancies and aging as needed =P



    Quote Originally Posted by Feanoro View Post
    Don't expect Blizzard to keep up with numbers like death tolls when they pop entire armies out of thin air.
    Like I said earlier: You have to assume there's more than what you see represented in-game.

    The Alliance forces sacrificed to attack The Blood Gate I'm sure was a few hundred, maybe capped at a thousand (I like to think 300 in a nod to the 300 Spartans). There's just no way Rastakhan would have sent the bulk of the Zandalar Army to Nazmir just to wipe out 50 to 100 soldiers. Jaina made it clear: They needed to make Rastakhan think the Alliance was legit attacking from the north and that's why they took out two outposts on their way to The Blood Gate. Jaina personally being there made it believable and more so since by that point in time, the Horde knew for sure Kul Tiras formally rejoined the Alliance.
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  14. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by Aurabolt View Post
    Like I said earlier: You have to assume there's more than what you see represented in-game.
    Sure, the game engine has limitations. The problem comes from them making wildly conflicting statements. One minute the Alliance is calling up farmers to fight, the next they're winning through numerical superiority, then back to they don't have warm bodies, yet pull an army out of nowhere.
    Quote Originally Posted by Alex86el View Post
    "Orc want, orc take." and "Orc dissagrees, orc kill you to win argument."
    Quote Originally Posted by Toho View Post
    The Horde is basically the guy that gets mad that the guy that they just beat the crap out of had the audacity to bleed on them.
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  15. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by Val the Moofia Boss View Post
    You're conflating with WW2 levels of mass death (a historical anomaly which has tinged pop culture's depiction of war) with actual medieval warfare, which was relatively bloodless. During the War of the Roses, you had nobles fighting each other whilist the rest of England was completely unaffected. Most people were literally untouched by the war. Nothing changed. They heard that there was some fight in a field far off somewhere and that was that.

    The most devastating wars in recent Azerothian history would have been the first three Warcraft games, where you had multiple human kingdoms being almost completely genocided by orcs or zombies. After that you have a period of constant low level skirmishing activity (Vanilla through WotLK), which a couple years of heightened warfare (Cata through MoP) but again most of these battles are happening out on the frontier with only a single city being bombed (Theramore). Then you're back to skirmishing (Legion) with again another mass casualty event (Teldrassil). In BFA you have some battles like MoP but again it's not WW2 levels. There aren't firebombing campaigns of multiple cities or mass starvation or widespread illness in the armies.
    There had to be fuckloads of people dying on Azeroth in order for Slyvanas/Jailers plan to make any sense otherwise he would have just needed to wait an hour for the same amount of souls to die across the universe.

  16. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by qwerty123456 View Post
    There had to be fuckloads of people dying on Azeroth in order for Slyvanas/Jailers plan to make any sense otherwise he would have just needed to wait an hour for the same amount of souls to die across the universe.
    Doesn't make sense either way, the people of azeroth are a drop in the ocean compared to the rest of the universe and can't play a pivotal role for the continued existence of Azeroth, otherwise the whole thing should have collapsed from drought a long time ago.

  17. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by Aurabolt View Post
    If you consider a few thousand people being killed at the Wrath Gate and tens of thousands of people being killed at the Broken Shore "low", ok. You need to keep in mind what we're told or shown in-game is just the tip of the iceberg in terms of numbers. For example, Stormwind and Orgrimmar are each likely at least 5 times bigger than in-game.

    Taurajo probably had over 5,000 Tauren living there plus people who happened to be passing through. Most escaped but some were killed when the Alliance attacked. Theramore probably had over 250,000 people when it was bombed. Startholme...if I remember right, its population was said to be around 400,000 and it was the biggest city in the kingdom outside the Capital (Lordaeron). When Arthas saw the plague-laced grain, he knew from firsthand experience an infected person could turn VERY quickly. He also knew he didn't have much time even if only a small number of people ate the plague-laced grain. He was forced to make an impossible choice: Kill everyone or quarantine the city and wait for people to start turning en masse. Had he done the latter, the sheer numbers would have quickly overwhelmed his and Uther's forces and the newly raised Scourge would've wiped out Lordaeron shortly afterward. Quel'Thalas probably wouldn't have fallen though so there's that.
    This is exactly what I'm saying, though. If these are recorded as absolute atrocities and we used your (extreme high end estimate and unsupported by the lack of canon) numbers, then #1 wars with millions of deaths still wouldn't make any sense because these would be drops in the bucket by comparison and not considered tragedies and #2 the jailor would have no need for BFA by canon evidence we are shown for what constitutes a lot of souls (it isn't millions that's a lot in Shadowlands, for anything. It's more like... 20 for small stuff and 1000 for huge stuff that can tear the cosmos a new one).

    No idea what you're talking about with Stratholme, seems unrelated to this conversation cus I was saying that one wasn't ever excused.

    Mass millions of deaths every war also, again, makes the prominent lore figures and heroes on all sides (horde, alliance, good and evil) make no sense.

    In the interest of conversation, is there something you are trying to explain with your mass millions death theory, or are you just pointing out what you feel is a plot hole? If the latter, I'm unsure what you expect as replies beyond people offering potential explanations.
    Last edited by Firefall; 2022-08-27 at 06:40 PM.

  18. #18
    80% is Warcraft's favorite number for casualties, so it's just what I would throw.

  19. #19
    Population numbers, lol lmao.
    Dickmann's Law: As a discussion on the Lore forums becomes longer, the probability of the topic derailing to become about Sylvanas approaches 1.

    Tinkers will be the next Class confirmed.

  20. #20
    With how wow is and the games and the lore in games (not talking books) I cannot imgine any race ever having had a million people at any point, each race seems likely to have a few hundred thousand if I am being generous with 'armies' ony numbering in the thousands, the world and such just doesn't support a millions of different people from different races.

    And no, I am not taking the game at face value, thats stupid, if I did they all would have starved to death long ago.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Super Dickmann View Post
    Population numbers, lol lmao.
    Oh, ok.

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