How bad is inflation in your area?

[hellhamster]

No, it doesn't. Especially when you're getting key facts wrong like saying the Maidan "was connected to NATO expansion" (it wasn't, it was about EU integration and the government being run by Kremlin shills) and that Russia "waited 8 years for the perfect moment to start a war" (it didn't, Russia began making incursions into Ukraine during the Maidan).

You are very much reaching to try and make your silly conspiracy theory about the US engineering an energy crisis sound legitimate.

Russia has been planning it for a long time. Here's a prominent professor explaining why this is a US/NATO foreign policy causing this, if you don't believe me.



Video is 6 years old but his predictions played out perfectly. Is it really a reach that the US is profiting from this?

[jonnysensible]

this isnt really the thread for it but....

putin : Ukraine shouldn't exist as a country *launches genocidal war*

some goon : hmmm is this about NATO expansion, i am very smart

[hellhamster]

this isnt really the thread for it but....

putin : Ukraine shouldn't exist as a country *launches genocidal war*

some goon : hmmm is this about NATO expansion, i am very smart

"Putin wants to genocide Ukrainians just because. I am very smart."

When Soviets armed Cubans to the teeth and told them to aim for America, Kennedy was justified when he glassed the country. Same shit, different day.

[Shadowferal]

this isnt really the thread for it but.... putin : Ukraine shouldn't exist as a country *launches genocidal war* some goon : hmmm is this about NATO expansion, i am very smart

I'd say Putin expected Trump to still be president.

[jonnysensible]

"Putin wants to genocide Ukrainians just because. I am very smart."

He literally wrote a big essay on why lenin was wrong about ukraine and that it isn't a real country its just russia. And the media/soldiers constantly say that Ukraine must be defeated as an idea and its people must be destroyed.

Please stop being a goon

[Elegiac]

Russia has been planning it for a long time. Here's a prominent professor explaining why this is a US/NATO foreign policy causing this, if you don't believe me.

Him being 'a prominent professor' doesn't mean his argument isn't full of shit.

No one forced Russia to invade Ukraine. Stop being a goon.

Is it really a reach that the US is profiting from this?

There is in fact a big reach between 'the US is deriving geopolitical advantage from the situation' and 'the US engineered every step of the situation'.

The latter, which is what you're implying, is the rambling of a conspiracy nut and in no way germane to a discussion of inflation.

[hellhamster]

Him being 'a prominent professor' doesn't mean his argument isn't full of shit.

No one forced Russia to invade Ukraine. Stop being a goon.



There is in fact a big reach between 'the US is deriving geopolitical advantage from the situation' and 'the US engineered every step of the situation'.

The latter, which is what you're implying, is the rambling of a conspiracy nut and in no way germane to a discussion of inflation.

Yeah one of the leading academic authorities in political science is full of shit, just because? You didn't present a counterargument. OK, you win that argument /sarcasm.

Russia is the bad guy for glassing Ukraine. USA is the bad guy for NATO expansionism next to Russian borders when they knew full well the repercussions. Europe is the bad guy for being literally too stupid to deal with self-sufficiency or at the very least invest in energy earlier. Now we pay the price. We are now here.

The US will have an edge because of the dollar strength. Don't believe me? Look at the DXY in the coming months /this year, it shows dollar strength in relation to other currencies. The euro will tumble, the EU may even crumble, and the dollar will reign even more supreme. Maybe, just maybe... The US are not the saints we thought they were?

- - - Updated - - -

He literally wrote a big essay on why lenin was wrong about ukraine and that it isn't a real country its just russia. And the media/soldiers constantly say that Ukraine must be defeated as an idea and its people must be destroyed.

Please stop being a goon

How else will he convince millions of uneducated young men to kill their fellow man? Through sheer fanaticism.

[Elegiac]

Yeah one of the leading academic authorities in political science is full of shit. OK, you win that argument /sarcasm.

Again, doesn't mean his and your argument isn't full of shit. As seen by this nonsense:

USA is the bad guy for NATO expansionism

Which completely ignores the fact that Ukraine was and remains a sovereign country with the right to make its own foreign policy decisions. It is not a justification for Russia's actions, and the only 'fault' is against Russia for creating the circumstances where post-Soviet republics like Ukraine feel that they need protection from it.

The US will have an edge because of the dollar strength.

Again, this is not evidence for your bullshit theory that this series of events was engineered by the US as part of a master plan, and no one here is making the argument that the US are 'saints'.

Some advice: resentment poisoning is something you need to work out on your own time rather than being crapped out all over the internet.

[Shadowferal]

Yeah one of the leading academic authorities in political science is full of shit, just because? You didn't present a counterargument. OK, you win that argument /sarcasm. Russia is the bad guy for glassing Ukraine. USA is the bad guy for NATO expansionism next to Russian borders when they knew full well the repercussions. Europe is the bad guy for being literally too stupid to deal with self-sufficiency or at the very least invest in energy earlier. Now we pay the price. We are now here. The US will have an edge because of the dollar strength. Don't believe me? Look at the DXY in the coming months /this year, it shows dollar strength in relation to other currencies. The euro will tumble, the EU may even crumble, and the dollar will reign even more supreme. Maybe, just maybe... The US are not the saints we thought they were? - - - Updated - - - How else will he convince millions of uneducated young men to kill their fellow man? Through sheer fanaticism.

Response here

[MCMLXXXII]

NATO: if you like, you can join us.
UA: sure, we'll consider it.

Putin and hellhamster: NATO put a gun on Ukraine’s head and forced them to join. Let's obliterate Ukraine.

[Biglog]

This topic got way sidetracked into a Ukraine-Russia war debate. But an openly expansionist country emulating Germany in 1939 should not really be up for debate. Russia's argument is based on the falsehood that Ukraine was going to have NATO nukes on Russia's doorstep, which was never the case. The justification that it's ok get to invade sovereign neighbors out of paranoia that they might be unfriendly someday is irrational at best. Russia also misled the world with lies all along the way saying the pre-invasion preparations were simply military exercises, feigning interest in peace talks prior to the invasion, and lying about facts along the way like the Moskva sinking and mass civilian atrocities after it started.

A person would have to drink a whole lot of kool-aid to buy that, same for the strange "giving weapons to Ukraine is prolonging the war" argument. That's analogous to a criminal saying that if police would just stop showing up at this bank I'm trying to rob, I could get this robbery done more quickly. Sometimes people today just parrot things they've been told without even really thinking about how illogical what they are saying is.

But getting things back on track, the Russia-Ukraine war definitely exacerbated the global inflation problem that started with Covid. The war increased oil prices, and higher wage/salary/transportation costs from the pandemic were already increasing prices before that. Nervousness over China-Taiwan also hasn't helped. It started in 2019 and has only gotten worse. Lower wage jobs especially have seen wage increases. Wages were behind cost-of-living increases for the past 15-20 years prior to that and the pandemic caused them to jump quickly to closer to where they should have been, which along with rising transportation costs has been an inflation shock. Oil prices might settle down over time but the higher wages are here to stay, so unfortunately the higher prices are more likely to be the new norm rather than a temporary issue. It's more a matter of getting inflation down over time to not increase them any more than they already are.

[hellhamster]

NATO: if you like, you can join us.
UA: sure, we'll consider it.

Putin and hellhamster: NATO put a gun on Ukraine’s head and forced them to join. Let's obliterate Ukraine.

Yes, it's sad that's the way geopolitics work nowadays. A few big bullies vying over influence and control among themselves, with the little guy getting fucked over. Little guy being Ukraine right now. Could also be Afghanistan, Libya, Somalia, Yemen, Syria, Grenada, Lebanon, Vietnam, Panama, Yugoslavia, Taiwan, the list goes on and on.

Control over resources, assets, votes, political leanings. Creating axes of control, a "West vs East", asking countries to pick a side, to be "with us or without us". Choosing "without us" leading to being obliterated financially in most cases, even militarily in some others. Russia does it, USA does it, China does it, the EU does it. Because you can't solve a problem diplomatically, you have to exert influence to get what you want.

Well, for the first time, it's the EU feeling the repercussions of that "war for influence". I just hope people wake up one day, but who am I kidding, most of you will never see the forest for the trees.

You say Russia is at fault for the war in Ukraine. I say yes, but every superpower has a mandate to invade and glass the neighboring country if they feel threatened. I don't agree with that, obviously, but it is the way of the world. And the Americans knew that, so they pushed Ukraine into NATO. Only to see how far Russia would go. Russia would of course show weakness if they remained idle, so they wage war, brother against brother.

[Unholyground]

It is not great but survivable. I just don't buy stuff anymore outside of what I need to survive mostly.

[Shadowferal]

Yes, it's sad that's the way geopolitics work nowadays. A few big bullies vying over influence and control among themselves, with the little guy getting fucked over. Little guy being Ukraine right now. Could also be Afghanistan, Libya, Somalia, Yemen, Syria, Grenada, Lebanon, Vietnam, Panama, Yugoslavia, Taiwan, the list goes on and on. Control over resources, assets, votes, political leanings. Creating axes of control, a "West vs East", asking countries to pick a side, to be "with us or without us". Choosing "without us" leading to being obliterated financially in most cases, even militarily in some others. Russia does it, USA does it, China does it, the EU does it. Because you can't solve a problem diplomatically, you have to exert influence to get what you want. Well, for the first time, it's the EU feeling the repercussions of that "war for influence". I just hope people wake up one day, but who am I kidding, most of you will never see the forest for the trees. You say Russia is at fault for the war in Ukraine. I say yes, but every superpower has a mandate to invade and glass the neighboring country if they feel threatened. I don't agree with that, obviously, but it is the way of the world. And the Americans knew that, so they pushed Ukraine into NATO. Only to see how far Russia would go. Russia would of course show weakness if they remained idle, so they wage war, brother against brother.

response

[Zan15]

But getting things back on track, the Russia-Ukraine war definitely exacerbated the global inflation problem that started with Covid. The war increased oil prices, and higher wage/salary/transportation costs from the pandemic were already increasing prices before that. Nervousness over China-Taiwan also hasn't helped. It started in 2019 and has only gotten worse. Lower wage jobs especially have seen wage increases. Wages were behind cost-of-living increases for the past 15-20 years prior to that and the pandemic caused them to jump quickly to closer to where they should have been, which along with rising transportation costs has been an inflation shock. Oil prices might settle down over time but the higher wages are here to stay, so unfortunately the higher prices are more likely to be the new norm rather than a temporary issue. It's more a matter of getting inflation down over time to not increase them any more than they already are.

Finally someone gets it.

You jam 20 years of missing wage gains into 2 years you are going to have inflation, especially on top of a shrinking labor pool because of mass retirements of a whole generation and that same generation pushing huge immigration blockades against new labor coming into the country.

Just wait till that same generation wonders why their healthcare/services/nursing/aids cost are skyrocketing as they start to really need them and wonder where all the labor for those jobs went.

[RachelMadcow]

Pretty bad, it's like a 10% on groceries every week. This is why I only vote on economic issues from now on, I really could care less about a candidate's view on social issues anymore.

[Witchblade77]

on a different note, while doing research for something unrelated, found this Senate-Passed Inflation Reduction Act: Estimates of
Budgetary and Macroeconomic Effects from University of Pennsylvania.

to summarize one of the pertinent points - The impact on inflation is statistically indistinguishable from zero (0.1%)

yaaaaay. and no its not the only point of analysis and its quite an interesting read in general, but its the one the one that I found to be pertinent to me, personaly.

[Kokolums]

inflation should get a lot worse because we aren't fighting it at all. a slow rate hike wont stop it. the IRA wont stop it. we have a blueprint on how to beat it from the 1970s and 1980s but were not even trying that, so, yeah...

- - - Updated - - -

Pretty bad, it's like a 10% on groceries every week. This is why I only vote on economic issues from now on, I really could care less about a candidate's view on social issues anymore.

well a big chunk of inflation is psychological. once the public believes inflation is a problem, they start to spend more than they otherwise would have, which pushes inflation higher. and no, that doesnt mean it is a perfect smooth upward slope. it can be fits and starts, but the overall trend is up. might go crazy for a several months, slow a bit for a few months, then kick into much higher gear.

the first problem is breaking the psychology of it and getting people to calm down. but we arent bothering to do that, and were just allowing everyone's mental state to break down in terms of inflation expectations.

[Zan15]

nothing like still paying 3.50+ for gas when.


RBOB Gas (Oct′22)
@RB.1:New York Mercantile Exchange

2.3893


the spot price is sitting at 2.40.



Where are the overnight drops of 30-40 cents?


Also isn't it wonderful that gas/desial prices are way down yet food prices have not started moving down either.


oh right, Biden's fault...Have to love it when a whole political party made it easy for corporations and businesses to take advantage of consumers while having a built in excuse and fall guy.


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...est-since-1950

A measure of US profit margins has reached its widest since 1950, suggesting that the prices charged by businesses are outpacing their increased costs for production and labor.

After-tax profits as a share of gross value added for non-financial corporations, a measure of aggregate profit margins, improved in the second quarter to 15.5% -- the most since 1950


The data show that companies overall have comfortably been able to pass on their rising cost of materials and labor to consumers. Across the economy, adjusted pretax corporate profits increased 6.1% in the April-to-June period from the prior quarter -- the fastest pace in a year -- after falling 2.2% in the first three months of the year. Profits are up 8.1% from a year earlier.

[hellhamster]

The data show that companies overall have comfortably been able to pass on their rising cost of materials and labor to consumers. Across the economy, adjusted pretax corporate profits increased 6.1% in the April-to-June period from the prior quarter -- the fastest pace in a year -- after falling 2.2% in the first three months of the year. Profits are up 8.1% from a year earlier.

Interesting post, let's put 2 and 2 together.

On one hand we have record profitability across the board, with consumers being left with the bag of having to pay for those rising costs.

On the other, The Washington Post, Bloomberg, Fortune, etc are suddenly mass-reporting on the phenomenon "growth recession", which in an inflationary environment can be a synonym or a major precursor for stagflation, because the supposed measured "slow growth" isn't actually adjusted for inflation. In reality, "growth" will equal shrinking, when actually adjusted for inflation. Shrinking equals lower wages and higher unemployment, with the one constant being always inflation.

The fact that we have this term being reported en masse, as well as your post about high profitability, equals a narrative being created. This narrative depicts an economy entering a "growth recession", where companies are reporting "growth", because they are the only ones allowed or being able to grow. Helpless consumers are lower on the totem pole, so they will face lower wages, higher unemployment and higher taxes, aka a recession.

2+2 equals the worst case scenario I had in mind in a post I made some 9 months ago, a prolonged stagflation. The good news is we still aren't seeing the last proponent of stagflation yet, which is high unemployment.