Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Iphie]

Well, some of them had training in heavy weaponry. The rear echelon one might be able to handle small arms but little more.

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Kupyansk (or should that be Copeyansk for the Russians) appears to have fallen.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Goncharen...86920597946370

Fallen? No, Liberated, a city falls to the enemy, and is liberated by the original owner or their allies.

Pedantry aside, 4-5 days? That's what it took?

[Evil Midnight Bomber]

the interesting part about this is they may as well be considered forever sanctions already. No one alive now is looking 50 years ahead and it's made pretty clear no matter how much they kiss ass or display Putin's head on a pyke, no one is going to forgive them for the foreseeable 10 years. And that's what some of them are trying to brown nose for.

So it collapsing into civil war seems to be an inevitability.

And also, they don't know how to admit defeat because they have the Spartan philosophy. While I said a hypothetical "if they lose," I don't think Russians will ever surrender.

Oh you're doing so good!

[zealo]

Whatever happened to the Kremlin's constant threats earlier this year of "scorched earth" should Americans, or any Western foreigners really, be on-field participants in this war? That sounds much more direct than just supplying weapons. That's why I don't believe that general's claim.

The only westerners participating as combatants are volunteers officially enlisted with the Ukrainian army and not there in an official capacity as part of their own respective nation's military.

Russia blows a gasket about that of course, but whining like a little bitch about it is all they have.

[MCMLXXXII]

WTF are you on about. Every Dictator proudly and smugly proclaims they are winning bigly while their empire crumbles around them.

As always your takes are the 100% opposite of what happens in reality.

Yep, Nero was the first recorded one.

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Let's see how long Tweek will last this time.

[Corvus]

Rob Lee is reporting a Russian channel has said Izyum has surrendered. This isn't him saying it but just reporting on Russian sources.

Seems unlikely that it has yet but we've said that a number of times the last few days.

[Shrouded]

There are (unconfirmed) rumblings that the Russians have left Izyum. If that's true, it's enormous. It effectively sews up that entire frontline. It does feel like it's a little too early to celebrate though, wasn't Russia supposed to have 10k troops in that region?

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1568502706557296641

Edit: Sniped! Well played, Corvus.

[Iphie]

There are (unconfirmed) rumblings that the Russians have left Izyum. If that's true, it's enormous. It effectively sews up that entire frontline. It does feel like it's a little too early to celebrate though, wasn't Russia supposed to have 10k troops in that region?

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1568502706557296641

Edit: Sniped! Well played, Corvus.

Amount of troops is irrelevant if they do not want to, or are unable to, fight. If these were, as reported, rear echelon troops then they weren't exactly in a position to put up a big resistance, it's better to surrender or retreat in such a situation. No use in laying down your life when you have the chance to survive.

It remains to be seen how widespread this is but ehm, does this look like the frontline is crumbling?

[zealo]

Izyum just a couple of days ago were pretty far behind the front, relatively speaking. Wouldn't surprise me at all if the Russians there were just mostly logistics and support personnel as reported, many of whom wouldn't be all that combat capable.

[Shrouded]

Amount of troops is irrelevant if they do not want to, or are unable to, fight. If these were, as reported, rear echelon troops then they weren't exactly in a position to put up a big resistance, it's better to surrender or retreat in such a situation. No use in laying down your life when you have the chance to survive.

It remains to be seen how widespread this is but ehm, does this look like the frontline is crumbling?

Yeah, I agree, but I'm very skeptical about the ability to evacuate 10,000 troops that quickly. From what we've heard, most of them would be going on foot. Sure sounds like the potential for many, many POWs.

[Iphie]

russian Telegram channels report russians fled Lyman:

https://twitter.com/BarracudaVol1/st...31278256799750

Anyone considered what the effect will be on the Kherson front? I mean the russians can only keep it a secret for so long that the eastern front is crumbling.

[Warning]

Extremely happy to see the Russian forces buckle so greatly. These past few weeks to me are strong signs of serious impending trouble for the Russian regime. The pressure on Putin will now become tremendous, as both the undeniable military failures and the economic implications of the end of Russian gas in Europe support his removal. I simply do not see a way for a man who now stands between 100's of billions in revenue in both Europe and Russia AND who is the driving force behind a deeply failed and embarrassing military operation to stay in power (or indeed, alive) for long.

He may have some success in the short term, because he has convinced a meaningful part of Russia that the operation is of limited scale and thus downplay or deny any significant losses. However, in the long term I believe the economic impacts and his exposure as a fraud rather than a strategic genius as well as grievances over the loss of Russian status will likely cost him.

[Makabreska]

Extremely happy to see the Russian forces buckle so greatly. These past few weeks to me are strong signs of serious impending trouble for the Russian regime. The pressure on Putin will now become tremendous, as both the undeniable military failures and the economic implications of the end of Russian gas in Europe support his removal. I simply do not see a way for a man who now stands between 100's of billions in revenue in both Europe and Russia AND who is the driving force behind a deeply failed and embarrassing military operation to stay in power (or indeed, alive) for long.

He may have some success in the short term, because he has convinced a meaningful part of Russia that the operation is of limited scale and thus downplay or deny any significant losses. However, in the long term I believe the economic impacts and his exposure as a fraud rather than a strategic genius as well as grievances over the loss of Russian status will likely cost him.

He might have convinced general population everything is fine and dandy, but his inner circle, government, parliament, military leaders and media, they all know what's up. And that's where the danger may come for him.

[jonnysensible]

wonder what the potato fuhrer is thinking about all of this

[Makabreska]

wonder what the potato fuhrer is thinking about all of this

"They told me this won't happen" or something like that. But it is extra spicy now, considering he removed Shoigu from the chain of command and made others report directly to him.

[jonnysensible]

"They told me this won't happen" or something like that. But it is extra spicy now, considering he removed Shoigu from the chain of command and made others report directly to him.

I meant Lukashenko, hes counting his chickens for staying out of the war so far (well he allowed Russians into belarus and to strike with air from there)

[Iphie]

russian channels now reporting russia left Svatove.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1568560997371191296

That's pretty deep into so called 'liberated Luhansk'. Being a bit skeptical here as there are also reports to the opposite effect, but if it's true then I'm kinda wondering what the HELL is going on there as this would be insanely fast.

I meant Lukashenko, hes counting his chickens for staying out of the war so far (well he allowed Russians into belarus and to strike with air from there)

I read, and this is just me reading stuff on the internet, that the Belorussian army refused to engage in the north after being given orders by the russians. The truth is out there, but I wouldn't actually discount it seeing that the Belorussian army command isn't stupid.

[Poopymonster]

russian channels now reporting russia left Svatove.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1568560997371191296

That's pretty deep into so called 'liberated Luhansk'. Being a bit skeptical here as there are also reports to the opposite effect, but if it's true then I'm kinda wondering what the HELL is going on there as this would be insanely fast.

Behind the scenes, they wrote off everyone there, no plans to withdraw, just abandoned. "Good Mornink Comrade, you are, how they say, fucked? You are Ukraine problem now. Hey, at least they feed their prisoners."

69th Dimensional Regicide game, if we overload the Ukrainian Nazis Terrorists who desecrate borsch with POWs they won't be able to advance as fast.

[Gorsameth]

russian channels now reporting russia left Svatove.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1568560997371191296

That's pretty deep into so called 'liberated Luhansk'. Being a bit skeptical here as there are also reports to the opposite effect, but if it's true then I'm kinda wondering what the HELL is going on there as this would be insanely fast.



I read, and this is just me reading stuff on the internet, that the Belorussian army refused to engage in the north after being given orders by the russians. The truth is out there, but I wouldn't actually discount it seeing that the Belorussian army command isn't stupid.

I mean, once the front lines are breached if there are no deeper, manned, lines of defence and no reserve forces to plug the gap, because they all got redirected somewhere else or simply never existed (remember Russia is short on manpower) then what is there to stop an advance once it has broken through the front? Empty uncontested ground is really easy to claim.

[Iphie]

I mean, once the front lines are breached if there are no deeper, manned, lines of defence and no reserve forces to plug the gap, because they all got redirected somewhere else or simply never existed (remember Russia is short on manpower) then what is there to stop an advance once it has broken through the front? Empty uncontested ground is really easy to claim.

True, but a token occupation force would have to be in place to stop resistance. So it's not completely empty, but I wouldn't defend it either if i was part of the occupation force.



Ukrainians are reportedly in Lysychansk again, the outskirts, but still.

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/st...92602160680963

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/st...94855118442497

[Northern Goblin]

"In order to achieve the stated goals of the NVO to liberate Donbass, a decision was made to regroup the Russian troops stationed in the Balakliya and Izyum regions to step up efforts in the Donetsk direction"

Today's Russian MoD briefing acknowledging the retreat, but trying to put a brave face on it. They're shuffling troops around like it's 1917 all over again.