Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Saradain]

Counterpoint: "the CSTO is effectively dead after this debacle", but I do like your way of thinking.

Infinitely better than the way my lefty friends in Helsinki are thinking. (Still anti-NATO )

Dead, but still their intention with the pact was officially the same. In reality, of course not, if they could get their members to invade Ukraine or anything else with the orcs, they'd be overjoyed.

Now I feel embarrased that all this time some...people...posted their anti-NATO rhetoric here and I didn't even think once that CSTO is effectively already at my borders which is somehow okay but not for NATO...

...Ah well, here goes Finland to NATO and at least then Russia will never dare to try again. Even some people I know finally managed to not be anti-NATO because Russia did all the genociding, it took THAT for them to finally fucking stop pretending that EU and NATO are a threat for finnish sovereignty. While being so, so afraid of Russia. Not gonna bother asking if they ever thought that maybe we should not give in to terrorist states and hope they leave us alone...

[Corvus]

At the very least, there is $300 billion in frozen Russian assets I expect will be given to Ukraine as compensation.

[Saradain]

At the very least, there is $300 billion in frozen Russian assets I expect will be given to Ukraine as compensation.

I'd love to see that. Germany also nationalized/seized some Gazprom sites in Germany I read, it's looking very bleak for russian oligarchs that these window-suicides/accidents start to seem like proper suicides at this rate.

[Kaleredar]

Dead, but still their intention with the pact was officially the same. In reality, of course not, if they could get their members to invade Ukraine or anything else with the orcs, they'd be overjoyed.

Now I feel embarrased that all this time some...people...posted their anti-NATO rhetoric here and I didn't even think once that CSTO is effectively already at my borders which is somehow okay but not for NATO...

...Ah well, here goes Finland to NATO and at least then Russia will never dare to try again. Even some people I know finally managed to not be anti-NATO because Russia did all the genociding, it took THAT for them to finally fucking stop pretending that EU and NATO are a threat for finnish sovereignty. While being so, so afraid of Russia. Not gonna bother asking if they ever thought that maybe we should not give in to terrorist states and hope they leave us alone...

I can't speak for anyone in Findland, but some of the "anti-NATO" sentiments in these forums seem to be entrenched in fairly obvious "anti-US" rhetoric.

Which, sure, I understand to a degree, but the world is becoming more and more a zero-sum power game and who your friends are definitely matters. And if your friends aren't NATO and by extension the US, it's going to be the other guys, and as bad as the US might be the other guys are scads worse.

[Saradain]

I can't speak for anyone in Findland, but some of the "anti-NATO" sentiments in these forums seem to be entrenched in fairly obvious "anti-US" rhetoric.

Which, sure, I understand to a degree, but the world is becoming more and more a zero-sum power game and who your friends are definitely matters. And if your friends aren't NATO and by extension the US, it's going to be the other guys, and as bad as the US might be the other guys are scads worse.

Well yes. Just that the anti-US part is heavily entrenched in anti-LGBT-wokeism thinking that they fear so fucking much that the "american influence thing" is "gonna come across the ocean and take over". I do recall a friend saying how nice Russia is as a country because they hold fast to traditional values. Who cares if they do some genociding sometimes?

So yeah, these times bring the true colours of the said friends to light, and it is sad for me. But heyoooo, I at least can live my life without being so paranoid and afraid of random things, not exactly too concerned over these conspiracy theory fears that others may have.

Maybe in time, after Russia is finally driven back to lick their wounds while collapsing on the side, I will know people who can admit they were so fucking wrong about so many things.

[Kaleredar]

Well yes. Just that the anti-US part is heavily entrenched in anti-LGBT-wokeism thinking that they fear so fucking much that the "american influence thing" is "gonna come across the ocean and take over". I do recall a friend saying how nice Russia is as a country because they hold fast to traditional values. Who cares if they do some genociding sometimes?

So yeah, these times bring the true colours of the said friends to light, and it is sad for me. But heyoooo, I at least can live my life without being so paranoid and afraid of random things, not exactly too concerned over these conspiracy theory fears that others may have.

Maybe in time, after Russia is finally driven back to lick their wounds while collapsing on the side, I will know people who can admit they were so fucking wrong about so many things.

I'm sure there's some of that around but usually those people are squarely in the "team Trump" woefully unfortunate aspect of US culture. (The same holds true for all the paranoid "UN is going to take over" wackos)

I'm more referring to the "The US was bad in the middle east and Vietnam, therefore they're not to be trusted and are really just as bad as Russia/China, if not worse." They're in this very thread.

Which, yeah the US DID do bad things in the middle east under trumped-up excuses. And in the more distant past, Vietnam. And those are bad things... bad things that were set into motion decades ago.

Russia (and China as the other major global player, but I don't want to go too off topic) are doing real and terrible things in the hear and now. And for as much as people want to point to the negative aspects of US democracy like gerrymandering and the right's increasing grab for power, Russia and China are once again scads worse in those regards and, unlike the US' splintered party system wherein one is trying to keep democracy afloat and the other wants to drag the country into fascism, the governments of Russia and China are united in the bad directions their respective countries are taking. And yet, for example, we had a guy in this very thread saying that the US is almost equal in blame for the war in Ukraine as Russia, because the US "antagonized Russia with NATO and failed to negotiate a middle ground at the outset of the war." What kind of bullshit is that?

[Nymrohd]

I think that goes without saying, but first let them stop shooting and go back to Mordor. After that we can talk about reparations. (Which I feel is LESS important than russians out of Ukraine.)

I mean we don't need to talk reparations. That would imply we want Russia to have an opinion on that matter. Rather we need to build the legal ground so all the assets frozen can be seized and given to Ukraine as reparations.

And that is fairly crucial; funding an extensive Ukrainian reconstruction will also help repatriate all the people who fled (since there will be a surge in economic activity and thus jobs for everyone) and inevitably further integrate Ukraine in the western market economy. Some form of partnership with the EU (while joining outright is an inane proposition, a customs union or other access to the Single Market is not).

[Iphie]

I mean we don't need to talk reparations. That would imply we want Russia to have an opinion on that matter. Rather we need to build the legal ground so all the assets frozen can be seized and given to Ukraine as reparations.

And that is fairly crucial; funding an extensive Ukrainian reconstruction will also help repatriate all the people who fled (since there will be a surge in economic activity and thus jobs for everyone) and inevitably further integrate Ukraine in the western market economy. Some form of partnership with the EU (while joining outright is an inane proposition, a customs union or other access to the Single Market is not).

We kinda do want russia to have a voice...at least I want that, because I have no taste for repeating the mistakes that led to WWII. I know it's a touchy subject but I'd rather bite that figurative bullet now than bite literal bullets 20-30-40 years down the road, ya know?

That doesn't mean I want to bend over and give in, just that I think the agreements must be palatable to all.

[Nymrohd]

We kinda do want russia to have a voice...at least I want that, because I have no taste for repeating the mistakes that led to WWII. I know it's a touchy subject but I'd rather bite that figurative bullet now than bite literal bullets 20-30-40 years down the road, ya know?

That doesn't mean I want to bend over and give in, just that I think the agreements must be palatable to all.

Then you are making a mistake in your reading of history. The answer to the mistakes of WWI was not to to give the aggressor a seat on the table. It was what the US did to Germany and with less success to Japan at and after WWII; destroy, occupy, rebuild. With nukes no one would ever try this option anymore. So our only alternative is containment.

We got where we are now PRECISELY because of a constructivist approach and Ostpolitik, because of the illusion that engagement brings familiarity and familiarity acts as a deterrent to aggression. This has been proven laughably untrue in the case of Russia. If anything, familiarity bred contempt.

[Gabriel]

I think the US and EU are more than poised to help rebuild Ukraine. Honestly, the whole "massive reparations" thing from Russia is like asking for blood from a turnip past a certain point. They're already in dire economic straights, and that economic turmoil is only expected to increase as time goes on. Putin was already acting like proto-hitler in his actions against Ukraine, we don't need Russia to go full third reich under the crushing burden of reparations they can't possibly pay off driving them into a (even more) homicidal rampage across Europe.

Now don't get it twisted, I've no intention of "letting Russia off easy," sanctions should absolutely remain and they should remain international pariahs until they create some sort of internal change to the contrary. They should likewise be pressured as pointedly as possible to repatriate any and all Ukrainians they kidnapped and, in fairness, pay to rebuild the infrastructure they caused the destruction of. There's no "forgive and forget," here.

But I'm wary of "economic reparations for the sake of punishment" causing Russia to become even more unhinged. Right now the people of Russia can easily point to the war that their leadership started as being the source of their hardship, and propaganda can only fight that so hard. But if the war ends and suddenly their money is worthless, they can't afford food and it's not the direct fault of the Russian government but the "oppressive west?" That's how you get an infuriated population behind far more cavalier and extreme outwards violence.

And do what? Get off scott free once again? The russian people support this war and Putin.

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Well yes. Just that the anti-US part is heavily entrenched in anti-LGBT-wokeism thinking that they fear so fucking much that the "american influence thing" is "gonna come across the ocean and take over". I do recall a friend saying how nice Russia is as a country because they hold fast to traditional values. Who cares if they do some genociding sometimes?

So yeah, these times bring the true colours of the said friends to light, and it is sad for me. But heyoooo, I at least can live my life without being so paranoid and afraid of random things, not exactly too concerned over these conspiracy theory fears that others may have.

Maybe in time, after Russia is finally driven back to lick their wounds while collapsing on the side, I will know people who can admit they were so fucking wrong about so many things.

Having being immersed in the septic tanks of Finnish chan forums, I can pretty confidently say that a lot of the anti-NATO rhetoric is spewed by actual russian bots. There are of course many YYA boomers still around, but even they hate russia more than the US rofl.

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We kinda do want russia to have a voice...at least I want that, because I have no taste for repeating the mistakes that led to WWII. I know it's a touchy subject but I'd rather bite that figurative bullet now than bite literal bullets 20-30-40 years down the road, ya know?

That doesn't mean I want to bend over and give in, just that I think the agreements must be palatable to all.

I'm pretty sure Germany wasn't asked after WW2 how they feel about the follow up. It should be the formula for how to deal with russia after this.

[Iphie]

I'm pretty sure Germany wasn't asked after WW2 how they feel about the follow up. It should be the formula for how to deal with russia after this.

Pretty sure you don't want that, ever heard of the 'Wirtschaftwunder'? Yeah, I don't think a rapid recovery, reconstruction and development of russia's economy is what you want, at all. That was the result of the formula used after WWII in Germany and Austria.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wirtschaftswunder

[Gabriel]

Pretty sure you don't want that, ever heard of the 'Wirtschaftwunder'? Yeah, I don't think a rapid recovery, reconstruction and development of russia's economy is what you want, at all. That was the result of the formula used after WWII in Germany and Austria.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wirtschaftswunder

I don't mind if russia gets rapid recovery, reconstruction and development of their economy, as long as we beat the imperialistic desires out of them and force the next two generations to apologize for what russia has done until they get seizures from someone merely suggesting that they are too nationalistic.

[Nymrohd]

Pretty sure you don't want that, ever heard of the 'Wirtschaftwunder'? Yeah, I don't think a rapid recovery, reconstruction and development of russia's economy is what you want, at all. That was the result of the formula used after WWII in Germany and Austria.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wirtschaftswunder

You also realize that happened because of massive US investment and massive financial immigration to that region? I somehow doubt China would do something similar for Russia.

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I don't mind if russia gets rapid recovery, reconstruction and development of their economy, as long as we beat the imperialistic desires out of them and force the next two generations to apologize for what russia has done until they get seizures from someone merely suggesting that they are too nationalistic.

You would never get that unless you actually destroy the country. You cannot rebuild a state, much less a culture, unless you break it first. And if NATO steps into Russia proper with such intent then yeah, nuclear war.

[Iphie]

You also realize that happened because of massive US investment and massive financial immigration to that region? I somehow doubt China would do something similar for Russia.

I am well aware of the factors involved, yes. However, why would China do this? They aren't a party here, Ukraine is. The analogue would be the west doing the same to russia as it did to Germany after the war: invest in the former aggressor.

[Gabriel]

You would never get that unless you actually destroy the country. You cannot rebuild a state, much less a culture, unless you break it first. And if NATO steps into Russia proper with such intent then yeah, nuclear war.

So lets have it break then. Sanction russia to hell until it fractures into smaller countries.

[Crispin]

We kinda do want russia to have a voice...at least I want that, because I have no taste for repeating the mistakes that led to WWII. I know it's a touchy subject but I'd rather bite that figurative bullet now than bite literal bullets 20-30-40 years down the road, ya know?

That doesn't mean I want to bend over and give in, just that I think the agreements must be palatable to all.

Could not agree more.

The treaty of versailles was a disaster, and Clemenceau got his way of making sure Germany paid and then some. Keynes prediction was spot on, and it'll probably be the same for Russia, if they're forced into complete submission.


As much as I'd like to see the Russians "pay", repeating history will be a huge mistake. We can't really repeat the conclusion of WW2, since we're not going to invade Moscow.

[Nymrohd]

I am well aware of the factors involved, yes. However, why would china do this? They aren't a party here, Ukraine is. The analogue would be the west doing the same to russia as it did to Germany after the war: invest in the former aggressor.

Again the only reason the US (not the West, the rest of us were in shambles) invested in Germany was that they were practically occupying it; their investment was very much secure (and it was mostly done not to stop Germany from arming again but to have Germany act as a bulwark against the Soviets). I don't exactly see what kind of scenario you are all imagining but our best case is Ukraine pushing people back to the original borders. Maybe getting Crimea back as a longshot. So . . . there is no similarity and the analogy is deeply faulty.

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So lets have it break then. Sanction russia to hell until it fractures into smaller countries.

Yeah I just don't see that happening. Why would sanctions cause Russia to fracture? They will keep them from progressing (because unlike 1930s Germany they are entirely dependent on foreign technology that they cannot replicate)

[Gabriel]

Yeah I just don't see that happening. Why would sanctions cause Russia to fracture? They will keep them from progressing (because unlike 1930s Germany they are entirely dependent on foreign technology that they cannot replicate)

Have you looked at the map? russia(s size) is a freak of nature so to speak. As soon as Moscow's power is diminished enough, there will be a break up of the Soviet Union vol 2.

[Nymrohd]

Have you looked at the map? russia(s size) is a freak of nature so to speak. As soon as Moscow's power is diminished enough, there will be a break up of the Soviet Union vol 2.

I've looked at the map. ALso looked at population graphs on the map. Also know how long those borders have been around. WHo exactly would be causing Russia to break? As I said earlier the only one who has the power and the claims is China and they'd never risk exposing their hand.

[Corvus]

We kinda do want russia to have a voice...at least I want that, because I have no taste for repeating the mistakes that led to WWII. I know it's a touchy subject but I'd rather bite that figurative bullet now than bite literal bullets 20-30-40 years down the road, ya know?

That doesn't mean I want to bend over and give in, just that I think the agreements must be palatable to all.

Future Russia won't be a concern like Germany was after ww1. Even before this war saw tens of thousands killed or maimed and hundreds of thousands fleeing the country their demographics were screwed. Russia in 20 or 30 years is going to be much weaker than they are even today.