Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Iphie]

According to some news sites I read this is part of the new law:


"Russia’s State Duma rushed through a bill on Tuesday introducing extra penalties for crimes such as desertion during times of martial law and general mobilisation. It also singled out “voluntary surrender” and LOOTING as separate crimes punishable by imprisonment of 10 years and 15 years, respectively."

Bit late to go for the hearts and minds russia...

[Mazza]

Anybody knows if the news that this law is a fatal torpedo to the bow of the MOEX is true?

[Vladier]

According to some news sites I read this is part of the new law:


"Russia’s State Duma rushed through a bill on Tuesday introducing extra penalties for crimes such as desertion during times of martial law and general mobilisation. It also singled out “voluntary surrender” and LOOTING as separate crimes punishable by imprisonment of 10 years and 15 years, respectively."

Bit late to go for the hearts and minds russia...

Can one even surrender involuntarily? To my understanding, one can either surrender on their own will or be forcibly taken captive. Does surrender under duress (by being asked nicely to surrender) count as voluntary? Or does involuntary surrender have to involve a Shadow Priest casting Mind Control?

[Crispin]

I wonder if Russia would recognise Taiwans independence if they held a quick referendum on it.

[Kronik85]

Not to go full Yuppie but these referendums are pretty worrisome. I would imagine the plan is to hold the sham referenda and absorb these territories into Russia as a pretext to end the Special Operation as a success and then move almost immediately to a Full Mobilisation when Ukraine refuses to let Russia call it quits with its current gains.

I'm not sure that a Full Mobilisation is all that scary, I find it hard to imagine they can even equip most of these new conscripts never mind give them proper aerial and armoured support but if they can claim that these territories are now sovereign Russian territories then it does advance a case for using WMD's as a defensive measure in the Russian psyche.

This is going to get super tense over the next few weeks unless the Ukraine and Partisans can delay these referenda long enough to push the Russians out almost entirely.

Also fuck Russia.

[Gabriel]

Not to go full Yuppie but these referendums are pretty worrisome. I would imagine the plan is to hold the sham referenda and absorb these territories into Russia as a pretext to end the Special Operation as a success and then move almost immediately to a Full Mobilisation when Ukraine refuses to let Russia call it quits with its current gains.

I'm not sure that a Full Mobilisation is all that scary, I find it hard to imagine they can even equip most of these new conscripts never mind give them proper aerial and armoured support but if they can claim that these territories are now sovereign Russian territories then it does advance a case for using WMD's as a defensive measure in the Russian psyche.

This is going to get super tense over the next few weeks unless the Ukraine and Partisans can delay these referenda long enough to push the Russians out almost entirely.

Also fuck Russia.

russia will get absolutely fucked if it tries to use WMDs with any excuse.

[Iphie]

russia will get absolutely fucked if it tries to use WMDs with any excuse.

I think Modi's and Xi's stance on that is now pretty clear, after last week. (I don't think they'll approve of WMD being used.)

[zorkuus]

God, I hope they conduct mass mobilization.

If hundreds and thousands of 20-something childless Ivans die in Ukraine that means fewer Russians in the next generation, a net win-win. God bless Vladimir Putin, the destroyer of Russia as a great power.

That isn't as good as it sounds. Right now the vile cretins are kidnapping kids from Ukraine to replenish their numbers.

[DarkTZeratul]

That isn't as good as it sounds. Right now the vile cretins are kidnapping kids from Ukraine to replenish their numbers.

Yes, kidnapping kids from Ukraine and sending them to fight against Ukraine, that will DEFINITELY work out the way they want.

[zorkuus]

Yes, kidnapping kids from Ukraine and sending them to fight against Ukraine, that will DEFINITELY work out the way they want.

I didn't mean to fight, but replenish their population in general.

You think of some witty way the russkies are going to shoot themselves in the foot, and in no time the russkies will prove there's no bottom to their vile nature to "prevent" bad things from happening to them.

[Vladier]

Meanwhile, Putin's speech regarding the "referenda" has been postponed until tomorrow. Curious.

[Iphie]

Meanwhile, Putin's speech regarding the "referenda" has been postponed until tomorrow. Curious.

Curious indeed.

[zealo]

Yes, kidnapping kids from Ukraine and sending them to fight against Ukraine, that will DEFINITELY work out the way they want.

Not strictly to fight, but as straight up abductions into Russia as part of staging a genocide. They themselves have admitted to that they've taken as many as 300k+ kids to Russia, and that was a while ago now so it can only have grown from there.

[Kronik85]

russia will get absolutely fucked if it tries to use WMDs with any excuse.

WE all get fucked if anything happens with WMD's. The issue is brinkmanship, not whether or not Russia can nuke the Ukraine with impunity. It's a fair calculation on Russia's part to expect that the West might chill Ukrainian support if they can create a pretext to a Defensive War rather than an invasion of the Ukraine.

[Corvus]

Sounds like complete panicked chaos going on behind the scenes in the Kremlin. I wonder if Xi had a quiet word to his vassal.

[Kronik85]

I think Modi's and Xi's stance on that is now pretty clear, after last week. (I don't think they'll approve of WMD being used.)

Russia must absolutely reframe the war in Ukraine, I would imagine that's what Putin has been told by Xi. That little cabal can not justify the Russian invasion to their domestic populations as things currently stand so there needs to be a change to make Ukraine sponsored by the West as the aggressors.

[zealo]

WE all get fucked if anything happens with WMD's. The issue is brinkmanship, not whether or not Russia can nuke the Ukraine with impunity. It's a fair calculation on Russia's part to expect that the West might chill Ukrainian support if they can create a pretext to a Defensive War rather than an invasion of the Ukraine.

What is not a fair calculation on Russia's part is the expectation the west will actually buy into that "pretext" they're trying to create on occupied Ukrainian territory, however. It is utterly delusional. Like, we all know already where the border was when Russia started sending in "little green men" as far back as 2014.

[Kronik85]

What is not a fair calculation on Russia's part is the expectation the west will actually buy into that "pretext" they're trying to create on occupied Ukrainian territory, however. It is utterly delusional. Like, we all know already where the border was when Russia started sending in "little green men" as far back as 2014.

Obviously you won't see anyone beyond Tucker Carlson or Nick Fuentes types trying to push this position, but it's essential for Putin's domestic audience that this becomes a struggle for the survival of Russia itself rather than Russian Adventurism going horrifically wrong. It's not about whether Russia can convince the West of this new narrative, it's whether Putin can get Russia itself to justify any measure to avoid losing face in Ukraine.

[Corvus]

Not even the Russians are buying it, which is why their stock market, even as tightly controlled as it is, tanked when the rumours of this started.

[Iphie]

Not even the Russians are buying it, which is why their stock market, even as tightly controlled as it is, tanked when the rumours of this started.

I guess that's why he didn't go on screen, and I hope someone talked sense into him, unlikely, but a man can dream.