2022 Midterms

[CastletonSnob]

IMO, DeSantis is a WAY bigger threat than Abbott.

[fwc577]

snip

538 has a great tool that lets you play with the house races. There are a lot of seats that are really hardcore tossups or slight Democrat but they've built in Republican bias this time around because Dems currently have control of the government and usually, that favors the minority party.

But if you take their tool and it allows you to assign victories and it changes the potential outcome of who gains / loses control. The current numbers stand at 72 in 100 in favor of Republicans taking the house.

Even assigning a few of the seats that are currently polling as lean dem or true tossups and assigning them dem victories, each one you assign drastically ups the chances of Democrats maintaining control of the House.

For example, if I take a single house race, NY-22. It was redistricted for this election. If that district was in effect in 2020, it would've ended up Biden+7. Currently, it is listed as a Tossup with D+2. If you give it to Dems,

Senate chances jump from 71 in 100 for Democrats to 84 in 100 for Democrats
House chances jump from 28 in 100 for Democrats to 44 in 100 for Democrats

I just feel like 538 is trying to be very careful and bracing for country-wide upsets in order for Republicans to regain control of the house.

[CastletonSnob]

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/poli...e-in-new-poll/

[Rasulis]

McConnell’s PAC yanks $9.6 million in TV ads from Arizona Senate race

Kelly looks solid.

Warnock and Walker in GA is very close. Despite the fact that most GOP voters think Walker is even dumber than Green.

[CastletonSnob]

Some states are cleaning out voter rolls. Be sure your name isn't one of them. Use this site to check your voter registration status.

https://www.vote.org/am-i-registered-to-vote/

Then, find a polling place near you.

https://www.vote.org/polling-place-locator/

[gondrin]

This could belong in multiple threads, I'll post it to this one. The GOP are 4 states away from having enough to be able to call a Constitutional Convention to be able to dramatically change the founding document of the US.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/polit...edcb1283a521c9

“Closer than most people realize”: Alarm over GOP plot to “drastically change the Constitution”

Government watchdogs are warning that the Republican takeover of state legislatures in recent years could imminently have major implications for the United States, as a right-wing effort to hold a new constitutional convention appears closer than ever to being realized.

On Monday, former Democratic U.S. Sen. Russ Feingold wrote in an op-ed at The Guardian that Article 5 of the U.S. Constitution allows the document to be amended, either with amendments being proposed by two-thirds of Congress and ratified by three-quarters of the states, or through a method that has never been tested: the establishment of a new constitutional convention.

To hold a new convention, two-thirds of all state legislatures—34 total—must apply to hold the gathering, where lawmakers would have broad freedom to change the Constitution however they saw fit. Three-quarters of states would have to ratify their proposed amendments.

"The right has already packed the Supreme Court and is reaping the rewards, with decisions from Dobbs to Bruen that radically reinterpret the Constitution in defiance of precedent and sound legal reasoning," wrote Feingold, referencing recent rulings on abortion rights and gun control. "But factions of the right are not satisfied to wait for the court to reinterpret the constitution. Instead, they have set their sights on literally rewriting our foundational document."

Feingold—now president of the American Constitution Society—is among those warning that a new constitutional convention is "closer to reality than most people realize," as The New York Times reported earlier this month.

As the Democratic Party expended considerable effort on passing federal legislation during the Obama administration, ACLU communications strategist Rotimi Adeoye wrote at The Daily Beast last month, Republicans focused on taking control at the state and local level, with Democrats losing 13 governorships and 816 legislative seats between 2008 and 2016.

As a result, Republicans now just need control of four more states to reach the threshold needed to call a second constitutional convention.


Feingold noted that if right-wing advocates for a new convention like the Convention of States Project and the American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC) get their way, there would be few limits on how Republicans could change the constitution:

There is nothing in the Constitution about how delegates would be selected, how they would be apportioned, or how amendments would be proposed or agreed to by delegates. And there is little useful historical precedent that lends insight to these important questions. This means that nearly any amendment could be proposed at such a convention, giving delegates enormous power to engage in political and constitutional redrafting.

"The framers left no rules," wrote Feingold in his new book, The Constitution in Jeopardy. "In this uncertainty lies great danger and, possibly, great power."

The former Wisconsin senator wrote at The Guardian that Republicans could use a new convention to craft an amendment banning abortion care, strip Americans of voting rights, gut federal anti-poverty programs, and further threaten people's right to be safe from gun violence by enshrining "their interpretation of the Second Amendment."

On Sunday, Common Cause president Karen Hobert Flynn told MSNBC that in the hands of Republicans, a second constitutional convention could "put all of our constitutional rights up for grabs."

Feingold noted that a national policy discussion regarding the "founding failures of the Constitution" is warranted.

"That said, any conversation about how to go about amending the Constitution needs to be transparent, inclusive, and informed," he wrote at The Guardian. "What factions of the right are pursuing is anything but. They are pursuing exclusively partisan outcomes and have sought to keep their efforts opaque. They do not seem interested in a representative, democratic process."

The Convention of States Project has received millions of dollars from the right-wing Donors Capital Fund and has been endorsed by Republican Govs. Ron DeSantis of Florida and Greg Abbott of Texas, Sens. Rand Paul, R-Ky., and Marco Rubio, R-Fla., and influential conservative commentators Sean Hannity and Ben Shapiro.

Rep. Jodey Arrington, R-Texas, a strong proponent of a new constitutional convention, recently proposed legislation to direct the National Archives to conduct an official count of all the states that have called for a convention at various times.

"Democrats should take the threat seriously," Amanda Litman, co-founder of progressive group Run for Something, told The Daily Beast. "Republicans always tell us what they want to do. We should believe them and think broadly and in the long term of where we should be working to stop this from happening."

With the midterm elections fast approaching, wrote Adeoye, "Democrats must emphasize to voters that Republicans still control most state legislatures, and if they remain in power, they can drastically change the Constitution."

[CastletonSnob]

Am I doing a good thing by posting early voting locations and hours on subreddits, even for states I don't live in? Could I get banned from Reddit for spamming?

[Edge-]

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/22/u...donations.html

Back when he was a businessman running a food-distribution company, Herschel Walker, the Republican candidate for Senate in Georgia, said his company offered its customers more than just burgers and hot wings.

“You are not just serving delicious, appealing food … you’re teaming up with Herschel, in an effort to level life’s playing field for those in need,” his company website once read.

Mr. Walker, a former football star, pledged that 15 percent of profits would go to charities, a promise the company said was “part of its corporate charter.” For years, Mr. Walker’s company named four specific charities as beneficiaries of those donations, including the Boy Scouts of America and the National Multiple Sclerosis Society.

But there is scant evidence that Mr. Walker’s giving matched those promises. When The New York Times contacted those four charities, one declined to comment and the other three said they had no record or recollection of any gifts from the company in the last decade.

“Herschel has been supportive verbally. I don’t think he’s given us any money,” said Jim Baugh, the founder of a now-defunct charity called the PE4Life Foundation. As late as 2017, one of Mr. Walker’s companies cited that foundation as a recipient of corporate donations, but Mr. Baugh said his foundation ceased operations in 2014.

Mr. Walker’s Senate campaign declined to say when, how or even if Mr. Walker’s company had made the donations it promised. A campaign spokesman, Will Kiley, said in a short written statement, “Herschel Walker has given millions of dollars to charities,” but he declined to provide details.

Eyo, looks like Herschel Walker continues to be a lying piece of shit.

He pledged 15% of the profits from a food distribution company he ran would go to charity, specifying four main ones including the Boy Scouts of America.

And thus far, while there's not 100% conclusive proof he never donated, the investigations by the NYT are turning up no evidence that he ever did donate. 3/4 of the named charities cite no records of donations from the past decade, and the fourth didn't respond for a comment.

This is another in his long list of lies including -

He graduated in the top 1% of his class - he did not even graduate.

He worked in law enforcement - he has never worked law enforcement.

He claimed his food-distribution company employed 800 people in 2020, though when he applied for a $111K PPP loan earlier that year listed eight.

Oh yeah, and he forgot to acknowledge many children he had with women out of wedlock. He didn't tell his campaign staff about them, either. What a nuclear family kinda guy!

just a reminder of the kind of people Republicans are running and supporting. Liars. Damned lying liars who lie lyingly.

[Doctor Amadeus]

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/22/u...donations.html



Eyo, looks like Herschel Walker continues to be a lying piece of shit.

He pledged 15% of the profits from a food distribution company he ran would go to charity, specifying four main ones including the Boy Scouts of America.

And thus far, while there's not 100% conclusive proof he never donated, the investigations by the NYT are turning up no evidence that he ever did donate. 3/4 of the named charities cite no records of donations from the past decade, and the fourth didn't respond for a comment.

This is another in his long list of lies including -

He graduated in the top 1% of his class - he did not even graduate.

He worked in law enforcement - he has never worked law enforcement.

He claimed his food-distribution company employed 800 people in 2020, though when he applied for a $111K PPP loan earlier that year listed eight.

Oh yeah, and he forgot to acknowledge many children he had with women out of wedlock. He didn't tell his campaign staff about them, either. What a nuclear family kinda guy!

just a reminder of the kind of people Republicans are running and supporting. Liars. Damned lying liars who lie lyingly.

Well he used to play Football so there is that, he didn't lie about that.

[Rasulis]

Well he used to play Football so there is that, he didn't lie about that.

The saddest part is that he is polling even with Warnock. Imagine if the GOP was able to muster a half-way decent candidate in Georgia.

[Edge-]

The saddest part is that he is polling even with Warnock. Imagine if the GOP was able to muster a half-way decent candidate in Georgia.

Football is enough of a qualification. I mean Alabama did elect a former college football coach to the Senate, after all.

- - - Updated - - -

https://www.capradio.org/news/npr/st...yid=1124486339

The Republican legislative platform is live! And it's...pretty thin on details.

[The "Commitment to America" includes four broad pillars focusing on the economy, safety, individual freedom and government accountability. Big on ideas ("expand U.S. manufacturing") but short on policy specifics, the agenda is in keeping with tradition established in 1994 with Rep. Newt Gingrich's "Contract with America," where the minority party releases their agenda priorities ahead of Election Day.

So more, "REPEAL AND REPLACE" energy where they don't actually have any actual ideas on the "replace" part, because the Republican party has shown over the past 6 years that they are not a party capable of governing and legislating.

[tikcol]

Hopefully the Republicans take the House so the country can get back on track.

https://www.politico.com/2022-electi...d-predictions/

I'm very excited about how that looks but only time will tell(polls are weird nowadays). If Trump rises above all the accusations that are being thrown at him I'm quite confident it will be a disaster for the Democrats on too many levels to count. Even if Trump is trashed I'm pretty sure the Republicans will fall on DeSantis for support who is doing a fantastic job.

Maybe 2023 will turn out to be a better year than expected.

[Xyonai]

Hopefully the Republicans take the House so the country can get back on track.

https://www.politico.com/2022-electi...d-predictions/

I'm very excited about how that looks but only time will tell(polls are weird nowadays). If Trump rises above all the accusations that are being thrown at him I'm quite confident it will be a disaster for the Democrats on too many levels to count. Even if Trump is trashed I'm pretty sure the Republicans will fall on DeSantis for support who is doing a fantastic job.

Maybe 2023 will turn out to be a better year than expected.

'If' is carrying a lot of weight here in this statement, and I think the state of Trump's trial will be a big decider for Swing area voters, while the GOP tripling down on unpopular culture war stuff has been able to galvanize left leaning voters against them.

That said, Reps picking up seats isn't super far fetched, but how much of a lead it'll be will be right now feels like a toss-up.

[Edge-]

https://time.com/6215770/jd-vance-uk...o-senate-race/

Peter Thiel's candidates still suck.

JD Vance is out there stanning for the "Abandon Ukraine" side of things. Which...might hurt his chances in the state as there are around 45,000 Ukrainian-Americans in Ohio.

It's a tight race with only about a 1% difference between the two now, so if even part of that community gets out to vote that could very well swing things back in Tim Ryan's favor.

[Shadowferal]

Hopefully the Republicans take the House so the country can get back on track. https://www.politico.com/2022-electi...d-predictions/ I'm very excited about how that looks but only time will tell(polls are weird nowadays). If Trump rises above all the accusations that are being thrown at him I'm quite confident it will be a disaster for the Democrats on too many levels to count. Even if Trump is trashed I'm pretty sure the Republicans will fall on DeSantis for support who is doing a fantastic job. Maybe 2023 will turn out to be a better year than expected.

You really haven't been paying any attention...

- - - Updated - - -

On another note; Rep Jamie Raskin unloads on GOP congressman for obsessing over ‘poor schmuck’ Ray Epps

Maryland Representative Jamie Raskin on Wednesday smacked down one of his Republican colleagues on the House Judiciary Committee after he was asked to respond to a repeatedly debunked conspiracy theory regarding an alleged agent provocateur who has become a central figure in Trumpworld claims about the January 6 riot.

After Kentucky Republican Rep Thomas Massie began asking Mr Raskin about Ray Epps – an Arizona man who supporters of the ex-president who incited the Capitol riot claim was acting at the behest of the government when he allegedly ordered a man called Ryan Samsel to begin attacking police officers – Mr Raskin shut his GOP colleague down. Mr Raskin chided him for continuing to discuss Mr Epps and spin conspiracy theories about why an interview Mr Epps sat for with the House January 6 committee remains unreleased.

"None of the transcripts have been released, so you don't need a conspiracy theory about that – we haven't released any,” Mr Raskin said.

Continuing, he laid into Mr Massey for “trying to make this poor schmuck who showed up to your protest into something a lot bigger than he is."

He's just trying to survive and he's on your side. You don't have many voters left — you might want to try to hang on to them without demonising and vilifying your own people,” he said.
------------
Raskin is a rare class act.

[Edge-]

Massie is really an impressively astounding piece of particularly pungent shit. Like, really, as a human being there's not a single thing I know about him that I can count as a positive or redeeming feature. The guy just genuinely sounds like an awful human being from top to bottom.

[Shadowferal]

I'm not aware of any politician from Kentucky who isn't a piece of shit.

[shimerra]

Hopefully the Republicans take the House so the country can get back on track.

https://www.politico.com/2022-electi...d-predictions/

I'm very excited about how that looks but only time will tell(polls are weird nowadays). If Trump rises above all the accusations that are being thrown at him I'm quite confident it will be a disaster for the Democrats on too many levels to count. Even if Trump is trashed I'm pretty sure the Republicans will fall on DeSantis for support who is doing a fantastic job.

Maybe 2023 will turn out to be a better year than expected.

I mean you can call literally finding classified documents Trump sign a law saying it was illegal for him to have an accusation. But at this point we know that 1. He had documents. 2. He wasn't supposed to have them. 3. He refused to return them. And his best change to prove no. 2 was wrong his legal team basically said "you know the special master that we specifically asked to review this matter? Yeah we're not going to comply with his requests and he actually has no right to do what we asked him to do". His primary defense was that he declassified them or could use executive/attorney-client privilege's to show they were his to keep. But then we remember the law still makes it illegal even if they were declassified and his own requested Special-Master has now sided with the government that they were classified because Trump's legal time literally refused to provide evidence he ever declassified them so that's a moot point either way.

All of my statements above are now %100.00 factual statements on the record. Trump had the documents and they were classified. It is now a matter of official court record. And the law says it was illegal for him to remove those documents. Really the only question is whether the legal system has the balls to prosecute a former president. Because Biden isn't going to do Trump a favor like Ford did Nixon.


And DeSantis aka the world's dumbest human trafficker may have his own issues. No doubt it'll probably rile up folks like yourself who can't get off unless a migrant child is taken from their family without a conservative administration keeping track of where they sent their parents to. But for most of us that's not a seller.

Trump's also sucking up a lot of Republican campaign money and giving exactly zero of it to any candidates. Even ones he endorsed. So basically Republicans have taken a crushing victory that was likely and actually put things into Democrat's court.

[CastletonSnob]

Here's the early voting schedule.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...n/10389747002/

September
Minnesota – Sept. 23
South Dakota – Sept. 23
Virginia – Sept. 23
Wyoming – Sept. 23
Illinois – Sept. 29
Michigan – Sept. 29

October
Maine – Oct. 9
California – Oct. 10
Montana – Oct. 11
Nebraska – Oct. 11
New Mexico – Oct. 11
Arizona – Oct. 12
Indiana – Oct. 12
Ohio – Oct. 12
Georgia – Oct. 17
Iowa – Oct. 19
Kansas – Oct. 19
Rhode Island – Oct. 19
Tennessee – Oct. 19
North Carolina – Oct. 20
Washington – Oct. 21
Massachusetts – Oct. 22
Nevada – Oct. 22
Arkansas – Oct. 24
Colorado – Oct. 24
Idaho – Oct. 24
South Carolina – Oct. 24
Texas – Oct. 24
Hawaii – Oct. 25
Missouri – Oct. 25
Louisiana – Oct. 25
Utah – Oct. 25
West Virginia – Oct. 26
Maryland – Oct. 27
Delaware – Oct. 28
Florida – Oct. 29
New Jersey – Oct. 29
New York – Oct. 29

[Edge-]

https://www.businessinsider.com/ohio...ssified-2022-9

Tell me if you've heard this one -

"Sure there's no public record of my claims, but I have private, top-secret documents that prove my claims. No, you can't see them."

That's Ohio GOP House candidate J.R. Majewski, after campaigning on his combat-duty in Afghanistan after 9/11...which media looked into and found no record of. He was in the middle east, but was not deployed in Afghanistan nor is there any record indicating he ever saw combat.

How he's claiming he's not lying, but he also can't prove it and nobody else can disprove it because it's a secret.

Fuckin lol.