Unrest in Iran

[Rennadrel]

The Iranian government needs to be taken down, the people don't deserve such oppression. Blame the Americans for current day Iran because they are responsible for overthrowing a democratically elected government back in the 50's, installing their own puppet who was summarily overthrown some time later by people who have a very fucked up view of Islam and use it as an excuse to violate human rights. I hope that the people of Iran continue to fight for a free nation, some day they can be rid of fundamentalist nutjobs and terrorist supporters like Khomeini.

[PC2]

The Iranian government needs to be taken down,

But how do you know that the replacement government will work at least as well or better than the current one? That's the part that always confuses me when people advocate for non-incremental changes.

There's a lot of ways for things to go wrong in that scenario, but only a few ways for things to go right.

[Corvus]

Iran's IRGC has decided the cause of the problems are Kurds living in Iraq and so have launched missile and drone strikes on them, killing civilians, and promises to keep doing so.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-63058096

[PACOX]

The Iranian government needs to be taken down, the people don't deserve such oppression. Blame the Americans for current day Iran because they are responsible for overthrowing a democratically elected government back in the 50's, installing their own puppet who was summarily overthrown some time later by people who have a very fucked up view of Islam and use it as an excuse to violate human rights. I hope that the people of Iran continue to fight for a free nation, some day they can be rid of fundamentalist nutjobs and terrorist supporters like Khomeini.

And we sold them a shit ton of guns. An irresponsible amount.

[Nymrohd]

Iran's IRGC has decided the cause of the problems are Kurds living in Iraq and so have launched missile and drone strikes on them, killing civilians, and promises to keep doing so.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-63058096

A government in the Middle East has problems inevitably leads to "let's kill some Kurds"

[Veggie50]

But how do you know that the replacement government will work at least as well or better than the current one? That's the part that always confuses me when people advocate for non-incremental changes.

There's a lot of ways for things to go wrong in that scenario, but only a few ways for things to go right.

As is the case with all change.

It is important to keep changing though. Imagine if people in the dark ages thought “you know what, lets keep things as is, we don’t know if things could be better”.

If things still haven’t improved after the change, change again!

[Endus]

But how do you know that the replacement government will work at least as well or better than the current one? That's the part that always confuses me when people advocate for non-incremental changes.

There's a lot of ways for things to go wrong in that scenario, but only a few ways for things to go right.

What happens if you decide to change the paint color in your kitchen and decide you really don't like the new color?

You just paint it another color, again.

This is so obvious that any argument that denies additional changes can always be made never seems to ever be made with honest intent.

[Slant]

With everything else going on, this seems to have largely been ignored, but there is growing unrest and protests going on in Iran.

Not ignored, but it's Iran, they do this sort of protest every other sunday, it seems. Nothing will come off it in a regime that has no problem decimating their own population in the name of religion.

- - - Updated - - -

But how do you know that the replacement government will work at least as well or better than the current one? That's the part that always confuses me when people advocate for non-incremental changes.

There's a lot of ways for things to go wrong in that scenario, but only a few ways for things to go right.

You can't do "incremental changes" with absolute dictatorships. The next step of "incremental change" would be to not have an absolute dictatorship. Where you go from there is up for debate, but since there is no "dictatorship light" concept, it's a binary choice.

And given the state of Iran, it seems at least the protesting portion of their population is seeing the risk/reward ratio in favour of taking the gamble and trying for something else. That is, they seem to think whatever follows can't be as bad as what they have currently. From their perspective, a lot of things can go right-er and few things can go wrong-er, to correct your invalid statement.

[Gamevizier]

internet has been throttled down to such extent that picturea and videos hardly get out.


but from what ive been hearing and what little footage has been leaking out... the people are winning. government forces unable to control, they are out of men and extremely fatigued.

increasing amount of Basij and government goons are refusing orders and a good amount are deserting posts. they are trying to resort to recruitimg kids (yesss, like middle or high school kids) or retired government personel, last i heard was that they are trying to recruit people working security in buildings and offices to come and help. does not seem to matter and its not effective.

people have been going out for about 13 days now, everyones on the streets.

women are walking without headscarves and going to shops and going about their daily lives and proving that the go ernment has lost control.

the army is posting interesting ig stories in their official ig channel, explaining the duties of the army, and specifically mentions that in time of need, the army's duty is to lend aid to the people by providing them with "equipment" and "training. so far the army has refused to interfere despire several calls from security forces including a rumored refusal to send reinforcement in Isfahan.

while the top leadership seems to be from IRGC, the main body of the army is amti-islamic republic.

the regime is so desperate that they attacked Iraq kurdistan with drones and missles to try and bait an armed response from the Kurds, so that they can create the fear of foreign invasion to try and gather their supporters. it backfired and pictures of dead civilians has only ANGERED iranians further.

i predict that the Iranian Regime will fall by the end of the week.

rumors (highly likely to be true) indicate that top government security officials have told their subordinates about "resisting until the end" and "doing their duty" in the face of the end. which has lowered morale even further amd caused alot of turmoil in the top leadership of the security forces.

supreme leader hasnt spoken since the unrest has started, unlike last times where he usually would try and make a speech to rally up his base. it is very likely that rumors of him being terminally ill and being on his deathbed were true. either that or he is in hiding for his own safety. neither scenario is comforting for the security apparatus.

i will post twitter sources soon. but right now im not feeling good, havent slept in well in days just following the news in Iran. but im very positive and happy from whats happening. the mullahs exp date is up, and its time to flush them down the drain.

[enigma77]

internet has been throttled down to such extent that picturea and videos hardly get out.


but from what ive been hearing and what little footage has been leaking out... the people are winning. government forces unable to control, they are out of men and extremely fatigued.

increasing amount of Basij and government goons are refusing orders and a good amount are deserting posts. they are trying to resort to recruitimg kids (yesss, like middle or high school kids) or retired government personel, last i heard was that they are trying to recruit people working security in buildings and offices to come and help. does not seem to matter and its not effective.

people have been going out for about 13 days now, everyones on the streets.

women are walking without headscarves and going to shops and going about their daily lives and proving that the go ernment has lost control.

the army is posting interesting ig stories in their official ig channel, explaining the duties of the army, and specifically mentions that in time of need, the army's duty is to lend aid to the people by providing them with "equipment" and "training. so far the army has refused to interfere despire several calls from security forces including a rumored refusal to send reinforcement in Isfahan.

while the top leadership seems to be from IRGC, the main body of the army is amti-islamic republic.

the regime is so desperate that they attacked Iraq kurdistan with drones and missles to try and bait an armed response from the Kurds, so that they can create the fear of foreign invasion to try and gather their supporters. it backfired and pictures of dead civilians has only ANGERED iranians further.

i predict that the Iranian Regime will fall by the end of the week.

rumors (highly likely to be true) indicate that top government security officials have told their subordinates about "resisting until the end" and "doing their duty" in the face of the end. which has lowered morale even further amd caused alot of turmoil in the top leadership of the security forces.

supreme leader hasnt spoken since the unrest has started, unlike last times where he usually would try and make a speech to rally up his base. it is very likely that rumors of him being terminally ill and being on his deathbed were true. either that or he is in hiding for his own safety. neither scenario is comforting for the security apparatus.

i will post twitter sources soon. but right now im not feeling good, havent slept in well in days just following the news in Iran. but im very positive and happy from whats happening. the mullahs exp date is up, and its time to flush them down the drain.

awesome if true

[PC2]

i predict that the Iranian Regime will fall by the end of the week.

Maybe but if that was about to happen then it seems like the current leaders of Iran would compromise and give their citizens some of the basic personal freedoms they want. Or perhaps the most reasonable 85% of Iranian elites/leaders could find a way to oust the craziest 15% of Iranian elites/leaders who represent the extreme religious wackos. If Iranian leaders can compromise a little bit with the moderate protestors then they would be able to handle a smaller sub-group of revolutionary protestors.

[Gamevizier]

Maybe but if that was about to happen then it seems like the current leaders of Iran would just make some compromises and give their citizens some of the basic personal freedoms they want. Or perhaps the most reasonable 85% of Iranian elites/leaders could find a way to oust the craziest 15% of Iranian elites/leaders who represent the extreme religious wackos. If Iranian leaders can compromise a little bit with the moderate protestors then they would be able to handle a smaller sub-group of revolutionary protestors.

one would assume as much. but the islamic regime, in its 44 years of inception, had tried to weave mandatory hijab into one of its core values and identity, they were never willing to relax that.

now that people are on the street and defying widespread hijab rules, and calling for the abolishion of the islamic government, the regime sees no way but to resist, not only are they not willing to remove the hijab law, but the people on the street are also not chanting anything about political reforms. they are calling for regime change outright.

from the looks of it, and from the speeches that the officials (especially securuty chiefs) they are talking about how they are willing to defend the islamic regime "to the very end" ,which is leading the people to believe that , A they know they may very well fall, B they are going to bunker down and try to fight until the very end.

if the government wants to negotiate and remove hijab, then it will be viewed as weak by its own security body.

other than that, its not just the hijab, bad economy (which is not fixable due to corruption) widespread corruption, oppression of political opposition, and the wide disconnection between the largely genZ and millenial population with the revolution have all lead to this.

there is a widespread belueve that, if the regime was interested in changing their way, they had 44 years to do that. its too late now and many are afraid that if the people fail, there will be mass executions and even more tyranny.

[Ripster42]

internet has been throttled down to such extent that picturea and videos hardly get out.


but from what ive been hearing and what little footage has been leaking out... the people are winning.

You're unlikely to see a gov't put out a bunch of videos about how they're successfully suppressing their population. Combined with how social media algorithms amplify content you want to see, while what you said might be true (and I hope it is), you're only really going to get one side of the story, aside from official statements from the gov't of iran, which can't be trusted, no matter what they're saying.

[Gamevizier]

You're unlikely to see a gov't put out a bunch of videos about how they're successfully suppressing their population. Combined with how social media algorithms amplify content you want to see, while what you said might be true (and I hope it is), you're only really going to get one side of the story, aside from official statements from the gov't of iran, which can't be trusted, no matter what they're saying.

i can assure that that is not the case since i lived there amd know/talk to people. i almost never listen to anything state tv shows or says. ill be back soon from work with videos/sources.

for now, there is widespread melee in the streets on a daily basis. security forces are still heavily frustrated and getting thinned down due to turnout/injury. meanwhile, the government is busy trying to round up more activists and celebrity figures who have shown their support for the people or have posted content in support of the people.

[PACOX]

I can't see a regime as ruthless as Iran's falling after a few weeks of protests. Not without a real two sided armed conflict. What regime falls without armed conflicts? No less a totalitarian one?

What I can see is Iran taking a page from the West and engaging in a misinformation campaign to erode the fight out of protestors. Control or create, sow doubt among the narrative. Slander protestors and conflate their message. Offer concessions, wait until tempers die down, never deliver. Bonus points if you blame the movement for any deals that 'fall through'.

And I hope the Iranian protestors watched closely and have a counter.

[Veggie50]

I can't see a regime as ruthless as Iran's falling after a few weeks of protests. Not without a real two sided armed conflict. What regime falls without armed conflicts? No less a totalitarian one?

What I can see is Iran taking a page from the West and engaging in a misinformation campaign to erode the fight out of protestors. Control or create, sow doubt among the narrative. Slander protestors and conflate their message. Offer concessions, wait until tempers die down, never deliver. Bonus points if you blame the movement for any deals that 'fall through'.

And I hope the Iranian protestors watched closely and have a counter.

Governments can fall pretty damn quick when the army doesn’t back them though.

[Muzjhath]

Governments can fall pretty damn quick when the army doesn’t back them though.

Yeah this.
While I hope this is the time the general population of Iran wins. I am doubtful. I believe in the end this time the crackdown will come.
I might be surprised and that the rank and file enforcement needed just won't be there, however I personally believe it'll be 5-10 years more of "quiet" disgruntlement before that will be the case.

Hopefully I'm wrong and it's already the case

[Gamevizier]

so far no sign of the regular army interfering. it is a combination of basij paramilitary + law enforcement specializing in crowd control (special unit or Yegan Vije in farsi) + sepah (IRGC). the regular body of the army is mostly believed to not favor the islamic regime.

I had to take a long sleep. so i couldnt update my last post. here is some footage of friday :

Ahvaz :

https://twitter.com/ManotoNews/statu...32896472240135 women taking off veil and dancing in street.

https://twitter.com/ManotoNews/statu...90819210334208 i think its the same city but different location.

Zahedan : people overpowered the law enforcement and attempted to besiege the police HQ. apparently security forces started shooting at people during friday prayers, footage from inside the prayer hall : https://twitter.com/ManotoNews/statu...17011082723328

https://twitter.com/ManotoNews/statu...19650231062529

https://twitter.com/mamadporii/statu...36307116654593 people overpowered the security forces and burned a police vehicle.

+36 killed in friday morning unrest in Zahedan. including multiple IRGC and security personel.

report: in the sistan province (south east) the province's head of IRGC Intelligence Services is killed.


Ardabil : street unrest on friday https://twitter.com/ManotoNews/statu...10728074055681

https://twitter.com/mamadporii/statu...h2k-y-kTg&s=19

ardabil : regime forces on retreat. people overpowered the security forces and took over the street.

Mashad (thursday) https://twitter.com/ManotoNews/statu...70289328820224 protesters throwing stones at cops. footage blurred for protesters' safety.

Tehran (friday night 9/30/22)

https://twitter.com/SamRasoulpour/st...Di-J0KNRw&s=19

reports of unrest and people on the street in various places in tehran.

https://twitter.com/RadioFarda_/stat...foghqtUrg&s=19

reports of unrest in the city of Dezful.

unrest is widespread in Iran right now. with multiple reports of sporadic melee and fighting. armed resistence is also reported in border regions like Zahedan and Kurdistan.

ill be back with more.

[Cthulhu 2020]

https://twitter.com/SBalaghi/status/1575641902665170944



Lots of art being created around this, this is probably the most famous piece among them.

[Kaleredar]

I can't see a regime as ruthless as Iran's falling after a few weeks of protests. Not without a real two sided armed conflict. What regime falls without armed conflicts? No less a totalitarian one?

What I can see is Iran taking a page from the West and engaging in a misinformation campaign to erode the fight out of protestors. Control or create, sow doubt among the narrative. Slander protestors and conflate their message. Offer concessions, wait until tempers die down, never deliver. Bonus points if you blame the movement for any deals that 'fall through'.

And I hope the Iranian protestors watched closely and have a counter.

I don't know if Iran's ability to spread misinformation is as multi-pronged and, frankly, tactical, as the spread of misinformation is in places like the US. In the US you have various news stations, political talking heads, social media influencers and other various disseminators of misinformation who pass themselves off as neutral parties, which are further backed by corporate and foreign misinformation interests who have some economic or geopolitical goal in propping up right-wing misinformation movements in the US with a lot of money and reach, meaning that a lot of misinformation streams in from a lot of sources. I don't know how people get their news in Iran, or from how many sources they can get it from, but it's entirely possible that the people there basically already know who is feeding them bullshit and who isn't, and it isn't particularly worth the time of juggernauts of misinformation to trouble themselves too highly with the internal dealings of Iranian society.

Moreover, with the sudden and rapid explosion of protesting this seems to be a rather far-spread sentiment that was simply waiting under the surface to reach a head. And unlike the weird, nebulous boogeymen that the right-wing conjures in the US to make conservatives balk at supporting protest movements while simultaneously probably not feeling the sting of what the people are protesting against (Your average low-educated middle class white man is going to balk at supporting BLM because they don't feel the police oppression that's being protested against while simultaneously being afraid of made-up black supremacists they've never once seen or encountered in their life,) the people that support these movements in Iran probably feel the oppression they're protesting against every day, as it's basically nation-wide, especially women.


In short, I don't doubt that Iran will try and run misinformation and denounce the protestors as heathens or heretics or having been corrupted by the decadent west, but if the Iranian people don't want to buy it because they've felt the oppression they're fighting first-hand, hopefully those misinformation efforts will come up short.