Russian invasion of Ukraine

[NoiseTank13]

I assume the few remaining survivors would be very unhappy. Everyone else? I mean, morale is already "Ctulhu's toilet" level. And I have zero to negative doubt Putin would claim American nuked his troops.

I never took you for a sweet summer child.

[Breccia]

I never took you for a sweet summer child.

Um...okay? I really don't get what you're trying to say here.

So as Russia plans to annex occupied territory, it seems to me most countries agree a contract signed at gunpoint is largely unenforceable. I wonder what the next step is. Could the international community just refuse to recognize it?

Probably more importantly, how would Russia plan to retain this annexed area? They're struggling as it is. I imagine they might claim that Ukraine troops in their own country would be an act of war, yet another sham considering Putin started a war to get this land. But the Ukrainian forces seem to be doing a pretty good job of just outright dismantling Russian forces when given the chance. So unless Putin decides to keep feeding meat to the grinder just to replace the occupying troops as they're slaughtered en masse, I don't see how this fraud of a vote is going to stand up. I definitely don't see Zelensky as they type to say "Well we were fighting for our land and our people, but he had a piece of paper signed at gunpoint, I guess we should stop fighting now". In fact, I see him saying this to the Russian invaders:

If you want to live, run. If you want to live, surrender.

[Collegeguy]

He is putting himself in a corner though, nuke get annihilated, don't nuke, fall out of a window.

In the end though the US has indeed made it very clear what the consequences are, and not even China will say the US is at fault in that situation. (I wouldn't even put it beyond Biden and Xi to have had some very secret conversations about this exact eventuality.)

Worrisome part is that some believe this may be Putin's only way out. Russia is struggling and desperate. The mobilization may fail. Putin is stressing over this. If Russia is not in a position of strength, then Putin knows his life is in danger. Throwing a nuke may be his way out. If the US responds with surgical strikes afterwards, he can retreat and blame the US for bullying Russia into a corner. This would be acceptable for him. If the world backs down after a nuke, he can demand peace for territory.

Essentially, Putin can't afford to lose to Ukraine. It dissolves the entire Russia stronk psyche and brings doubt to his decisions. Putin may force the world to get directly involved, so that he retains some form of dignity to save his own skin. Zelensky believes that the nukes are not a bluff. The west also can't allow gaslighting and nuclear blackmail to dissuade defending allies. That would be a terrible precedence.

Once this is over, Russia is going to be even more corrupt, backwards, and skill delinquent then before. The most incompetent nation in the foreseeable future holding nukes.

[Fugus]

@Collegeguy

If Putin goes that route, the retaliation shouldn’t be just to oust Putin it should be to dissolve Russia entirely and I think the entire planet would ensure that happened and very well likely make sure it wouldn’t be allowed to self govern for at least a generation or two if they are smart as Russia has repeatedly proven that they are culturally incapable of doing it themselves even when given the opportunity.

[Gabriel]

I believe the current plan really is to push russia so far into the corner that someone from his inner circle caps Putler and the rest of the russian government can blame the whole disaster on him and just withdraw to russia proper.

[Breccia]

I believe the current plan really is to push russia so far into the corner that someone from his inner circle caps Putler and the rest of the russian government can blame the whole disaster on him and just withdraw to russia proper.

Putin has to know that he's not just losing, but increasingly to blame for it. Do you think he'll go paranoid and start executing effectively random people in his own inner circle? Or does he have a strong enough grip that they won't do that until angry soldiers and their families are rioting outside his window -- meaning he's dead already anyhow?

[Gabriel]

Putin has to know that he's not just losing, but increasingly to blame for it. Do you think he'll go paranoid and start executing effectively random people in his own inner circle? Or does he have a strong enough grip that they won't do that until angry soldiers and their families are rioting outside his window -- meaning he's dead already anyhow?

My guess is that it takes him really trying to launch some nukes, at which point someone that wants to stay alive more than him makes the right call.

Or he does get some nukes off the ground after which point russia stops existing as a country along with Moscow in about 45 minutes.

[Makabreska]

Putin has to know that he's not just losing, but increasingly to blame for it. Do you think he'll go paranoid and start executing effectively random people in his own inner circle? Or does he have a strong enough grip that they won't do that until angry soldiers and their families are rioting outside his window -- meaning he's dead already anyhow?

1. His KGB brain may keep telling him that the only solution is to push forward (as giving up is not an option).
2. The moment he starts executing his inner circle is the moment they "remove" him. He is no Stalin, his buddies wont stand for this.

[Breccia]

Or he does get some nukes off the ground after which point russia stops existing as a country along with Moscow in about 45 minutes.

Of course, I would be okay if we never see this option. I'm inclined to agree with the rest -- launching is suicide, and I don't think most of Russia's government is actually praying for death.

2. The moment he starts executing his inner circle is the moment they "remove" him. He is no Stalin, his buddies wont stand for this.

I mean, at some point, everyone has to suspect they're next. We've already seen some notable names fall out of windows or get "reassigned" by Putin into a house surrounded by armed guards pointed inwards.

[Gorsameth]

Um...okay? I really don't get what you're trying to say here.

So as Russia plans to annex occupied territory, it seems to me most countries agree a contract signed at gunpoint is largely unenforceable. I wonder what the next step is. Could the international community just refuse to recognize it?

Probably more importantly, how would Russia plan to retain this annexed area? They're struggling as it is. I imagine they might claim that Ukraine troops in their own country would be an act of war, yet another sham considering Putin started a war to get this land. But the Ukrainian forces seem to be doing a pretty good job of just outright dismantling Russian forces when given the chance. So unless Putin decides to keep feeding meat to the grinder just to replace the occupying troops as they're slaughtered en masse, I don't see how this fraud of a vote is going to stand up. I definitely don't see Zelensky as they type to say "Well we were fighting for our land and our people, but he had a piece of paper signed at gunpoint, I guess we should stop fighting now". In fact, I see him saying this to the Russian invaders:

No one of even slight importance recognises Crimea as being Russian, no one outside of the usual Russian bootlickers is going to recognise any of these territories.

How does Russia plan to retain them? By being part of Russia they can send in regular conscripts that are part of Russia's mandatory military service. Since outside of an official war they are not allowed to be deployed outside of Russia. So instead of declaring war to commit them, Putin is simply moving Russia.

Will that work? I doubt it. No matter where they are drawn from, they will freeze the same in winter until a HIMARS strike will, briefly, warm them up.

[Edge-]

https://apnews.com/article/russia-uk...26a73d50411354

Yo the fuck? An Army anesthesiologist and his girlfriend tried to volunteer to fight for Russia? Or give Russia a bunch of information about US medical operations and shit, including training provided to Ukrainian soldiers?

Well that's unexpected.

[zealo]

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/st...70429372399617

Russian mil-bloggers are claiming Russian forces at Lyman are now encircled, alongside war criminal and propagandist Igor Girkin claiming there's NATO troops nearby.

I think we may see it falling to Ukraine soon.

[Makabreska]

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/st...70429372399617

Russian mil-bloggers are claiming Russian forces at Lyman are now encircled, alongside war criminal and propagandist Igor Girkin claiming there's NATO troops nearby.

I think we may see it falling to Ukraine soon.

Ye, no. C'mon bruh.

[Ripster42]

Well, if you want to go down that rabbit hole, strictly speaking, the US has the means and motive to do it. Less a question of NATO, more one of 'buy our gas instead of Russias'. Not saying they did it, though.

No, the US doesn't have a motive to do it. We are already shipping as much LNG as our logistics systems allow. They physically can't buy more LNG from us. Those pipelines already weren't being used. Statements from the EU are saying they've already reached planned levels of storage for winter, so current imports are enough. LNG prices were declining in the week leading up to the attack, and have since spiked again. ( @Gorsameth - there's your reason) If you're looking for a reason, that's it. Further instability in the EU from populaces unhappy about energy prices.

The only motive the US would have is to blame russia, and all of europe already hates russia over ukraine. There's no benefit in blaming this on russia.

This BS is less a rabbit hole and more of a cesspool.

I agree wholeheartedly, but that's what's puzzling to me: those with means have barely a motive, those with motive have no means. (russia has means but their motive would be flimsy, so they fall under the first category.)

They're essentially the only ones with a motive: attempt to further destabilize the EU through unrest over energy prices.

What are the likely consequences of Russia's annexation? More sanctions? I feel they will get away with it, because no-one wants to call Putin's nuclear bluff.

Conscripts can be deployed to those regions w/out breaking russian law.

Edit: tried to fix the mention.

[zealo]

Ye, no. C'mon bruh.

He's full of shit on that, no doubt, but what it says about the Russian positions there is the more pertinent point.

[Breccia]

Russian mil-bloggers are claiming Russian forces at Lyman are now encircled, alongside war criminal and propagandist Igor Girkin claiming there's NATO troops nearby.

Good story, other than you made me look up "mil-blogger". Turns out, I should have guessed. So thanks for making me feel stupid ya fuckin' cat.

Agree with @Makabreska there's no way NATO is actually there, but Russia is the propagangsta and needs to get its own population more scared of us then them. I...don't think it'll work, but if they don't try they'll be overthrown, so...

[Mazza]

Ukraine is not not going to accept anything less than all it's territory back at this point and I don't see a way Russia can stop them getting it all back eventually. Ironically, this is going to mean that in the Kremlin's eye, whoever leads Ukraine - be it Putin or his successor - will be ceding Russian territory to Ukraine.

Now this was basically already the case with Crimea, but they just made it a lot worse for themselves at the end of this.

[qwerty123456]

https://apnews.com/article/russia-uk...26a73d50411354

Yo the fuck? An Army anesthesiologist and his girlfriend tried to volunteer to fight for Russia? Or give Russia a bunch of information about US medical operations and shit, including training provided to Ukrainian soldiers?

Well that's unexpected.

Hmm at first I just assumed they were Fox News fans now I'm not sure:
https://www.the-sun.com/news/6332613...jor-russia-md/
Anna Gabrielian speaks English and Russian and says she was motivated by patriotism so must have just been a brainwashed Russian citizen/former citizen that convinced her spouse that the US is just bullying poor Russia.

[Yunru]

Ok this is interesting. Russans are so bad, they have to fight in close range to hit Ukraine tanks.

[enigma77]

Ok this is interesting. Russans are so bad, they have to fight in close range to hit Ukraine tanks.

Well sadly the Russian tank seems to win this round, so what's funny?