Whoops. Got it mixed up with Javelin. Which is in short supply also.
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Yep. The orders for HIMARS are coming in fast. Singapore wants 52 launchers. Who's going to attack Singapore?
Twenty-nine for Taiwan. Lockheed Martin is even working on anti-ship version of HIMARS missiles. Supplying weapons to Taiwan got Lockheed Martin a China sanction back in July.
Last edited by Rasulis; 2022-11-03 at 10:49 PM.
@Rasulis Regarding HIMARS. Ukraine is mainly using the GMLRS missiles, 6 per pod, and based on videos when Ukraine seeks to strike a target they fire the entire pod, because Russia does have a lot of air defense systems that can intercept them so they fire a lot of missiles, and also use older Soviet types at the same time to basically overwhelm air defenses. So Ukraine may be using dozens if not over 100 of missiles a day.
You're probably looking at thousands of missiles a month being used by Ukraine at this stage, certainly hundreds, and that's only going to increase the more systems Ukraine receives. The current yearly production according to what I've found is just over 9.000 a year. Total production of the main missile type was over 40.000, though that's throughout the entire lifetime of the system.
There's a real risk that Ukraine can and will run out of ammo, they certainly have reached critical levels for soviet types and even western ammo is at risk. If the intensity of the war continues for another half year as it has so far things are going to get quite ugly.
I think an article said it best: Whoever runs out of ammo first will lose the war and it may just come to that.
Launchers and even then it will take years for any country ordering HIMARS to receive any of them. Certainly the orders are going to come after the success in Ukraine.Yep. The orders for HIMARS are coming in fast. Singapore wants 52 launchers. Who's going to attack Singapore?
Last edited by CostinR; 2022-11-03 at 11:09 PM.
"Life is one long series of problems to solve. The more you solve, the better a man you become.... Tribulations spawn in life and over and over again we must stand our ground and face them."
Russian air defences have proved useless at intercepting himars rockets. The manufacturers boasted it could but when it turns out it couldn't russian authorities laid charges against them.
Each rocket can be programmed individually so when they fire them all off it doesn't mean they are all for the same target. Often they are programmed one per vehicle. There is video of himars strikes on a russian sp-art battery. Each vehicle received precisely one rocket strike despite being spread out.
Oh, and was reading a report that was saying Russia is suffering critical ammunition shortages. They are using stuff so old it's highly dangerous and leaving them no reserves if they get into a conflict with NATO.
Last edited by Corvus; 2022-11-03 at 11:48 PM.
quite obvious now russia is preparing for a spring offensive imo. They are trying to reconstitute battlegroups over the winter with all the mobiks.
Be surprised if Ukraine isn't preparing for this now as well. Hopefully they can inflict alot more attrition over the winter.
Yeah, thats already going on more or less. I need to go back through Rob Lee's feed for all the details, but he is a good source for it as he gets a lot of it from russian sources. There are complaints that weeks after mobilisation that large numbers of mobiks are still without weapons and are even being sent to the front without them. And plenty that are being given them are getting weapons in such a bad state that they are of little use.
Oh, and if you want more evidence of just how bad the mobilisation planning has been, russian sources have been complaining that mobilised men are being flown on private airline - and being charged for excess baggage. The men, not the government. And given they are having to buy their own gear, with their own money, because they aren't being provided it, they all have excess baggage. So it seems they are being gouged for every last ruble they have before they invariably die.
So...buy your own gear, buy your own winter clothes, buy your own sleeping gear, buy your own flack vests and helmets, buy your own gloves, all you get is one(?) uniform and a Kalashnikov that probably just got discovered in a storage closet that hasn't been opened since 1972?
And now also buy your own flight to training camp and pay extra for the checked back with everything that you've already paid 4-5x the normal price for?
Old USSR habits seem to be real hard to kill off.
Been a while since russian losses were brought up. Ukraine is saying that russian KIAs now are 73,000, and that losses are accelerating of late. The last part is easy to understand given the way untrained mobiks are being thrown into battle without proper equipment. Even if it is only half that number it is a staggering number.
Oryx is listing confirmed russian losses at seven and a half thousand vehicles and units of heavy equipment. That includes 1400 tanks. They are never going to be able to replace all they have lost.
Oh, and russian naval infantry suffered more dead in just 2 days assaulting a single town than they did in the entire First Chechen War.
Last edited by Corvus; 2022-11-04 at 05:17 AM.
The thing that still concerns me a bit is that despite of all the doom and gloom over Russia's capability to keep their troops in any kind of condition, Ukraine hasn't regained much ground in the grand scheme of things. Will their rate of advance increase? I don't know, regardless of the sanctions would be foolish to think Russia would not allocate every factory they possibly can to throw in the kitchen sinks and whatnots. Ukraine is feeding on alms, which fortunately are still there, but I have my concerns when looking at what Germany and that lapdog of Scholz is doing.
The upper hand for Russia is that there won't be any no fly zones or other UN-mandated interventions. China and their "friends" got that side covered.
Just my semi-pessimistic speculation here, so I'm happy to be corrected and educated.
Sometimes, the light of the moon is a key to other spaces. I've found a place where, for a night or two, the streets curve in unfamiliar ways. If I walk here, I might find insight, or I might be touched by madness.
I would think that there is enough bipartisan support for the support to continue. There will be pressure from the MAGA side of the GOP to drop support ofc but I think the majority in the House and a supermajority in the Senate will still back support. Messaging will definitely suffer though.
US arms industry making a fortune with the war, just wait until their lobbyists contact newly elected republicans... support for Ukraine will not drop. It's just a matter of soundbites to sell it