Trump/Biden/DeSantis 2024?

[xmirrors]

I don't think DeSantis would be nearly as popular outside of Florida as the GOP might think

No, especially once the gloves are off. Have you seen the video his wife posted? That kind of extremely religious stuff is not going to vibe with general voters and especially not independents.

Whiiiiiiich is why I think this is his only shot. He finally has the momentum, this is his peak. He just also has a huge Trump problem.

[Draco-Onis]

No, especially once the gloves are off. Have you seen the video his wife posted? That kind of extremely religious stuff is not going to vibe with general voters and especially not independents.

Whiiiiiiich is why I think this is his only shot. He finally has the momentum, this is his peak. He just also has a huge Trump problem.

Hmm but that extremist religious stuff would play very well in the primary, in the general DeSantis will just pretend it doesn't exist and Biden won't attack him on it because democrats are complete wimps on that subject.

[Jastall]

Hmm but that extremist religious stuff would play very well in the primary, in the general DeSantis will just pretend it doesn't exist and Biden won't attack him on it because democrats are complete wimps on that subject.

I certainly hope for them that most Republican officials learned that extremist religious positions that are hugely popular with a large segment of the base are likely what turned a massive electoral flood into a drizzle. Abortion is not a winning topic for them at all.

[Draco-Onis]

I certainly hope for them that most Republican officials learned that extremist religious positions that are hugely popular with a large segment of the base are likely what turned a massive electoral flood into a drizzle. Abortion is not a winning topic for them at all.

Once primaries are over DeSantis would do a full 180 and be "moderate" it's the typical playbook, democrats aren't very good at calling them out on things like this.

[Breccia]

The TLDR is that Trump has not really hidden the fact that he is planning to announce he'll run within the coming week.

I mean...has he, though? Has he really? He's said he has a major announcement coming.

Trump is a fat fucking fool, but he's actually fairly good at PR. By promising a bigly announcement, a yuge announcement, everyone is saying what a big announcement it will be, but not saying what it is...he will get the attention he craves from his rabid fanbase, who will at this point take "I tied almost half my own shoes this morning" as a major reveal. Which I guess it would be, he hasn't seen them in decades. But Trump has played the "see me at this time, come see me, it's going to be great, come be ready to cheer my name and clap your hands, I SAID CLAP MOTHERFUCKERS I GET OFF ON THIS SHIT" game for a while now, and even as you read this, you're remembering the Birther thing that turned out to be just an advertisement of his own hotel, aren't you?

Trump set up the Nov 14th thing well before everyone and their wife blamed Trump for the loss, possibly -- thanks @Nymrohd -- possibly to avoid the actual revelation that America just isn't into them anymore. But while the GOP is passing the "Trump lost the election" narrative is the worst possible time to announce he's running. Trump wants to be popular, Trump wants big crowds, and....announcing now just might not do that. He might legit wait until this blows over.

I did say "might". Trump is between a rock and a hard Santis, after all. Running for office is his last chance to get out of the federal charges he's facing, and he can't afford/stand letting someone else pull ahead in the GOP polls. So he's big fat fucked either way. But just remember, he has built himself an out, just like he did when he thought Russia was going to deliver damaging goods on Clinton at Trump Tower and teased that big reveal, I can see you nodding you remember that too, now, don't you?

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He just also has a huge Trump problem.

I mean, is there such a thing as a small Trump problem? Dude tips scales between "horse" and "orca".

[Redwyrm]

If Trump announces he is running the RNC stops paying his legal fees.

https://crooksandliars.com/2022/11/t...announces-2024

[Poopymonster]

If Trump announces he is running the RNC stops paying his legal fees.

https://crooksandliars.com/2022/11/t...announces-2024

He's pretty much hijacked their donation apparatus already.

[Breccia]

This is some no-name site loaded with more ads than substance, but it's an OP ED so that's fair game. It happens to be an OP I'm just a really big fan of, so, posting it here. Basically, I agree with this OP so much I'm starting to legit wonder if I could be a paid content publisher. No, really, read this shit, re-read some of my old posts, I'm wondering if this guy is reading over my shoulder. Probably not. But at least I can save you the trouble of scrubbing your browser for cookies by quoting the entire thing.

A lot of this could have been posted in, gosh, so many threads. The title and its relationship to this thread is a bit sprinkled in until the ***ending*** so skip ahead to that point if you want.

Please, let Trump run in 2024. He. Can't. Win.

From everything I’m hearing, it’s still on for Trump to make another pathetic El Pendejo Presidente banana republic spectacle to triumphantly announce his campaign for the Presidency in 2024. Nothing could give me more pleasure. Because he’s walking into a political buzzsaw.

I recently wrote about how in the last 4 days, the traditional GOP long knives have come out for Trump. But ask yourself these two questions. Why, after 7 long years have a whole platoon of GOP operatives finally come out from behind Mama’s skirts, and started criticizing Traitor Tot, and demanding that the party move on? And why is the FUX News propaganda network giving them unfettered access to airtime? The answer is simple. Trump. Is. A. Stone. Cold. Loser. They can’t ignore that fact any longer, nor can they ignore the fact that Trump has to go.

The discussion about "why was this the final straw" might need to be discussed in the Shitshow thread.

Let’s start with the simple stuff. In the 2022 midterms, Americans made it crystal clear that they cared most about issues, and not ideological bullshit. The Democrats ran on abortion rights, racial equality, fixing the economy, and most importantly, the literal threat to our democracy from the far right MAGA agenda. The GOP, when it could remain on message, campaigned on The Gruesome Twosome, The economy and crime. Which could have worked against a President as unpopular as Biden.

Two problems for the GOP. It turned out that the American people are Smarter than a 3rd grader, which makes them twice as smart as a Republican. The current voting population of the United States is younger and more savvy than the older, less educated, scared GOP base. They understood that while they might hate inflation, there is little that the President or a party can do to control it. And when it came to crime, they realized that if you want to lower crime, you change the Mayor! There is little a Governor or Senator can do about that.

In the wake of Tuesday nights results, The Democrats response to the Trump debacle has been pitch perfect. Both Biden and Schumer have praised the results as a thorough repudiation of far right MAGA authorian goals. The Democrats are well aware that there is a full blown civil war going on in the GOP, and they’re more than happy to throw gasoline on that fire.

But here’s the real reason why any Trump run in 2024 is doomed to failure. In 2016 Trump lost the national popular vote by some 3 million. In 2017 he lost 40 seats in the House, and earned 2 impeachment trials for his trouble. In 2020 Trump lost by 7 million votes and lost the Senate as well, giving Biden a popular mandate, which he followed through on. Trump. Is. A. Loser.

But here’s what binds the cheese. For more than 50 years, the GOP has used winks, nods, coded phrases, and dog whistles in order to use overt racism to their advantage, while maintaining plausible deniability for the non racist portion of the population. Trump changed that. He embraced overt racism, and sought out and coddled far right racist and anti government groups. This wasn’t a bug, it was a feature.

But nowhere was that more evident than in the fallout after the 2020 election. Led by constitutional law ignoramus John Eastman, Trump embarked on a nationwide campaign to overturn the election through the courts. Which went down in flames like the Hindenburg. Trump went 1-63 in court challenges, and the only one he won was a procedural suit that didn’t change a single vote.

And then the Trump GOP jumped the shark. They made it perfectly clear that the 2024 goal for Trump was to use the 2022 midterms to put election deniers in sensitive elective positions that would allow the GOP legislatures to overturn the popular vote on palsied charges, and send Trump electors instead.

Which just went the way of the dookie bird. In PA, Democrat Josh Shapiro won the Governor’s mansion, which allows him to pick a Democratic Secretary of State. In WI, Democratic incumbent Tony Evers won re elections for Governor, giving him stoppers over the legislature. In MI, not only did the Democrats sweep the statewide offices, but also flipped the legislature for the first time in 40 years. In NV, the only statewide the Democrats lost was for Governor, where Steve Sisolak became the ultimate Covid victim, but they increased their margins in the legislature. In AZ, Trombie election denier Kari Lake is down, and looking lost, and the Democrats won the AG and SoS spots. And in GA, Kemp and Raffensperger, who defied Trump in 2020 are still around, and no more likely to help him in 2024 than they were in 2020.

***Okay, now here's where this thread in particular gets involved.***

If Trump makes it through the primaries, he’s toast. He can’t win the national popular vote. Coming out of 2020, Trump’s entire 2024 strategy was to use slavish acolytes in GOP controlled statewide offices and legislatures in critical swing states to send alternate slates of electors to the electoral college. But that’s all gone now. While His Lowness may have sent 168 slavish Trombies back to the House, he lost every critical statewide office to make his plan come true in 2024.

And one more thing. We already know that Trump no longer has a viable path to victory if he survives the 2024 Mango Messiah bolted and formed a 3rd party, taking his 30% GOP base with him, which would sink the entire party in 2024. As a firm believer in the two party system, it grieves me to say that I can’t see how the GOP can fix this shit soon enough. But if another candidate like DeSantis beats him in the primaries, he’ll devote his life to destroying him. I wouldn’t be surprised if The Cheeto Prophet bolted from the GOP to form a 3rd party, and take his 30% base with him. As a firm believer in the two party system, it grieves me to say that the GOP mainstream can’t fix this soon enough to avoid a debacle.

The winner, in a DeSantis-Trump fight, is Biden.

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I saw something yesterday that said Trump took around 90% of every donation he was getting to "support" Herschel Walker lol

I couldn't find that.

But I did find Trump Has Spent More Money Opposing Georgia Republicans Than He Has Supporting Them

Trump’s Super PAC spent $3.4 million backing Herschel Walker in the general election that culminated Tuesday in neither Walker nor incumbent Democrat Sen. Raphael Warnock topping 50% of the vote, necessitating a December 6 runoff. While Trump’s endorsement helped the former NFL great secure the Republican nomination, the spending amounted to less than 5% of the $72 million that outside groups spent helping Walker in the general election, according to a Daily Wire analysis of Federal Election Commission records.

Super PACs like Trump’s Make America Great Again Inc. can spend unlimited funds independently supporting a candidate or cause, as opposed to PACs, like Trump’s Save America, which dole donations out directly to candidates.

Walker, whose campaign raised $38 million, could have used more outside help, especially given that Warnock raised $123 million, according to FEC data running through October 19.

Trump showed a willingness to spend more freely in Georgia when it came to opposing certain Republicans. Save America’s largest candidate-related expenditures were in the Peach State, including $4.4 million spent on groups that opposed Republican Gov. Brian Kemp in the primary. That money was ultimately wasted as Kemp prevailed and went on to easily win re-election with 53.4% of the vote – 5% more than Walker, his fellow Republican on the same ticket.

[Breccia]

That 99-1 though.

Trump has positioned himself very well as the gatekeeper to Republican money, which he's keeping for himself. I can't muster up even a drop of sympathy for the GOP for allowing, nay, encouraging this to happen. Especially considering Trump's campaign is already being watched.

[CostinR]

Ron DeSantis

Not that I'd vote for him if I was American but I believe he'd be the most likely to win.

[Poopymonster]

Ron DeSantis

Not that I'd vote for him if I was American but I believe he'd be the most likely to win.

That depends on how Trump and (his supporters) handle Ron winning.

[Flarelaine]

hes doing really well running twitter

Into the ground.

[Breccia]

Yet another poll that favors DeSantis over Trump.

23% said DeSantis, 20% said Trump, 41% said neither, and the rest said "YouGov is a stupid name for a polling company, wake me when 538 shows up".

"Okay but what about Republicans?"

41% DeSantis, 39% Trump.

"Okay but what about independents?"

18% DeSantis, 15% Trump.

"Okay but what ab--"

It's a 61-page list of results, give me a break. Trump lost every party, women, every age category over 45, every quarter of the US geographically, every income bracket, people who voted for Trump in 2020, and oddly enough, white people. DeSantis, apparently, does not poll well with African-Americans or...Hispanics. Huh. I wonder if someone used COVID money to put his Hispanic support on a bus and ship it to New York.

*ahem*

Let me make that bolded part clear: of the people who responded to the poll and said they voted for Trump in 2020, 46% want DeSantis, 36% want Trump.

This news should is eviscerating. People who wanted Trump, no longer want Trump.

Now I will point out, this poll was done Nov 9 to Nov 11, so, yeah, that timing is damning. The sample size is 1500, meaning that the gap between Trump and DeSantis is more easily explained with the manner of polling than it is by random chance.