2022 Midterms

[beanman12345]

There's not zero chance of that. At all. House Democrats are discussing it and it would take a handful of Republicans. Adam Kinzinger would be less polarizing for totally not sexist reasons, but yeah, it could definitely be done.

- - - Updated - - -



You don't have to be a member of Congress to be Speaker.

Dem's ain't electing someone who isn't a member of Congress to be speaker... much less Liz Cheney....

[Levelfive]

Dem's ain't electing someone who isn't a member of Congress to be speaker... much less Liz Cheney....

House Dems are the ones who brought it up. And I strongly disagree. She's much more preferable than anyone Republicans would put up.

[Rasulis]

The house race is way too close for comfort. To win, Democrats need to do the following.

Win AK, CA-6, CA-9, CA-21, CA-47, CA-49, CO-8, ME-2 and OR-6 where they are ahead.

Then they need to win 5 out of 6 close races in AZ-1, AZ-6, CA-13, CA-22, CA-41 and CO-3 (Boebert's district).

[beanman12345]

House Dems are the ones who brought it up.

link?

/10char

[Edge-]

link?

/10char

No, just Jennifer Rubin over at WashPo and then a Washington Examiner (lol) reporter saying that that these discussions are happening behind closed doors for Democrats.

F to doubt this is even happening, much less a serious discussion and not just shooting the shit and having a laugh.

[Levelfive]

link?

/10char

Yes, I know, Washington Examiner, but read for yourself--they quote Dems discussing pros, cons, and relative likelihoods, Still a better idea than anyone Republicans would put up: https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/n...-speakers-vote

- - - Updated - - -

No, just Jennifer Rubin over at WashPo and then a Washington Examiner (lol) reporter saying that that these discussions are happening behind closed doors for Democrats.

F to doubt this is even happening, much less a serious discussion and not just shooting the shit and having a laugh.

Dems are talking about making a deal, and it wouldn't be for an election denier: https://twitter.com/RubenGallego/sta...D9hF8XJCcX7KpA

[beanman12345]

No, just Jennifer Rubin over at WashPo and then a Washington Examiner (lol) reporter saying that that these discussions are happening behind closed doors for Democrats.

F to doubt this is even happening, much less a serious discussion and not just shooting the shit and having a laugh.

Big F. I'm sure the Washington Examiner got this inside scoop on Dem leadership plans and no one else is bothering to even piggyback on. =)

[Levelfive]

Big F. I'm sure the Washington Examiner got this inside scoop on Dem leadership plans and no one else is bothering to even piggyback on. =)

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/lib...veryone-agrees

[Poopymonster]

Yes, I know, Washington Examiner, but read for yourself--they quote Dems discussing pros, cons, and relative likelihoods, Still a better idea than anyone Republicans would put up: https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/n...-speakers-vote

Wasn't the plan if R's took house and senate (2/3rds majority) to impeach and remove Biden, then impeach and remove Harris, which would put Speaker of the House Trump in the Oval Office?

[s_bushido]

Wasn't the plan if R's took house and senate (2/3rds majority) to impeach and remove Biden, then impeach and remove Harris, which would put Speaker of the House Trump in the Oval Office?

lol... I'd almost forgotten about that.

[Gorsameth]

Wasn't the plan if R's took house and senate (2/3rds majority) to impeach and remove Biden, then impeach and remove Harris, which would put Speaker of the House Trump in the Oval Office?

Some of the crazies might wish that but I have a hard time believing they could convince enough moderates of subverting democracy like that.

[Levelfive]

Wasn't the plan if R's took house and senate (2/3rds majority) to impeach and remove Biden, then impeach and remove Harris, which would put Speaker of the House Trump in the Oval Office?

Yeah there was definitely a whole thing about making Trump Speaker, but with the thin margins it's looking like they'll have, it's not a given McCarthy would even be Speaker. McCarthy's crazy wing is hella unruly. The Cheney thing is a long shot but lots of great ideas are!

[tehdang]

House is still too close to call, but latest is good for Republicans.

They flip OR-05 , called today (NYT, Cook)
Today's batch in Pima County for AZ-06 widened Ciscomani's (R) lead, instead of reducing it. Now 1,617 votes.
California's 41st, 45th, and 27th districts have not been coming in at margins necessary for Democrats to retake the vote lead. (Nate Cohn, NYT). Dems will have to perform 7-12 points better than they have been in post-election counting.

Dems basically have to run the table to keep the House.

Another aside on Republican performance among Latinos: The heavily Latino parts of LA County have gone away from Biden. The final numbers will drift from these once all votes are counted. Performance measured against 2020 follow.

CA-31: 18 point gain
CA-35: 15 point gain
CA-38: 20 point gain
CA-42: 15 point gain

This is good news among the mostly bad news for Republicans. New candidates, better fundraising and earlier application, and a better campaign message can target communities willing to vote Republican in this environment.

[Fugus]

Some of the crazies might wish that but I have a hard time believing they could convince enough moderates of subverting democracy like that.

Look at how they voted against the infrastructure plan, how they voted against HR1 to end gerrymandering while railing against all the problems they voted against fixing while trying to take credit for the fixes that go through even though they personally voted against them.

Not sure how moderate those moderates really were, they just didn't want to cross the valley to full on traitor.

[Levelfive]

Look at how they voted against the infrastructure plan, how they voted against HR1 to end gerrymandering while railing against all the problems they voted against fixing while trying to take credit for the fixes that go through even though they personally voted against them.

Not sure how moderate those moderates really were, they just didn't want to cross the valley to full on traitor.

Trump is badly damaged atm (Mo Brooks was even talking shit about him out loud) so it may be easier now. May also be a short window, but if they aren't fearing his power to punish and humiliate, they aren't fearing him.

ETA: "“It would be a bad mistake for the Republicans to have Donald Trump as their nominee in 2024,” Brooks said in an interview with AL.com. “Donald Trump has proven himself to be dishonest, disloyal, incompetent, crude and a lot of other things that alienate so many independents and Republicans. Even a candidate who campaigns from his basement can beat him.”"

There's bad blood there, but Brooks isn't alone.

[Fugus]

Trump is badly damaged atm (Mo Brooks was even talking shit about him out loud) so it may be easier now. May also be a short window, but if they aren't fearing his power to punish and humiliate, they aren't fearing him.

Wasn't really talking about them still doing it to support Trump, was talking about how the ones who weren't really weren't moderate either as they backed all the other screwed up stuff to begin with. If they thought they could do something like that with someone they actually supported without paying for it later, they likely gladly would have. Being a moderate had nothing to do with their refusal to follow that line and the only thing that held them from doing so was the fact they knew they might be held accountable if they did.

[Kathranis]

The house race is way too close for comfort.

That it's close at all is a miracle. Republicans were expected to have a clear majority coming out of the midterms and if they do wind up with a majority at all it'll be insignificant enough that they can't unilaterally force their agenda through the House.

This is already a staggering defeat for Republicans, even if it's technically a win.

[Levelfive]

Wasn't really talking about them still doing it to support Trump, was talking about how the ones who weren't really weren't moderate either as they backed all the other screwed up stuff to begin with. If they thought they could do something like that with someone they actually supported without paying for it later, they likely gladly would have. Being a moderate had nothing to do with their refusal to follow that line and the only thing that held them from doing so was the fact they knew they might be held accountable if they did.

I'm not sure we're necessarily saying anything different. They're gutless, self serving, and largely amoral, but the calculus of whatever motivated them or held them back before has changed because Trump has the stench of losing--badly--all over him.

- - - Updated - - -

That it's close at all is a miracle. Republicans were expected to have a clear majority coming out of the midterms and if they do wind up with a majority at all it'll be insignificant enough that they can't unilaterally force their agenda through the House.

This is already a staggering defeat for Republicans, even if it's technically a win.

Agreed. It's humiliating for Republicans regardless of the outcome now. I was going to add that they'll still probably blow up the debt ceiling, but with so narrow a margin they might not be able to pull it off.

[Fugus]

@Levelfive

Agreed

[Strange One]

House is still too close to call, but latest is good for Republicans.

They flip OR-05 , called today (NYT, Cook)
Today's batch in Pima County for AZ-06 widened Ciscomani's (R) lead, instead of reducing it. Now 1,617 votes.
California's 41st, 45th, and 27th districts have not been coming in at margins necessary for Democrats to retake the vote lead. (Nate Cohn, NYT). Dems will have to perform 7-12 points better than they have been in post-election counting.

Dems basically have to run the table to keep the House.

Another aside on Republican performance among Latinos: The heavily Latino parts of LA County have gone away from Biden. The final numbers will drift from these once all votes are counted. Performance measured against 2020 follow.

CA-31: 18 point gain
CA-35: 15 point gain
CA-38: 20 point gain
CA-42: 15 point gain

This is good news among the mostly bad news for Republicans. New candidates, better fundraising and earlier application, and a better campaign message can target communities willing to vote Republican in this environment.

Where's the red wave? gonna cry more?