I mean if the Falcons wanted to emulate recent Super Bowl winners they'd have traded for Lamar Jackson, period.
Instead they're clearly trying to emulate the Titans. Which makes sense because that's where Arthur Smith coached before becoming the Falcon's HC. Which is predicated on "bruising RB and a QB that makes the necessary throws to adequate but not great WRs."
Honestly the problem for both these teams is you need either great WRs or a great QB to make that formula work and neither have either.
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I mean, you need a great QB to do anything of note in the NFL. Eagles just paid 250M to a guy that couldn't quite hang with the best QB in the league right now and lost the Superbowl due to it.
If a 250M QB isn't even quite cutting it, maybe you need to be realistic about what you want in life, and realize that perhaps having a good team with an identity and a culture that can win is already more than most teams have. And then worry about if what you have and what you can do with it is enough to win a Super Bowl at some later point.
The days of zero to hero in the NFL are basically over. You don't go from last place to superbowl contender in a year or 2 anymore. You need a lot of big and small things to come together, and that just takes like 3 to 4 years. For most teams (Chiefs, Eagles, Bills, Niners, Bengals to a degree) they have already invested in several things and made their culture fixes before they take the next step of having a good QB and good team and contending. Falcons are still rebuilding theri culture and their team to get at the level where they can start to think about competing.
The Bengals are the recent team that did it the quickest in turn around and if Jacksonville is good again this year, then they might be similarly turning it around quickly. But both those teams were huge surprises and, not a surprise, did it with a no. 1 draft pick QB. The Falcons are trying to do it without that luxury.
There were no QBs worth a gamble at their draft spot, AND they haven;t had time to properly evaluate Ridder. So why not get him the best RB in years, who is a weapon in the passing game as well?
In the 7 picks after their pick, 3 defensive players went and a bunch of OTs (they have a long time good LT and a passable RT, and they drafted Oline with their 2nd pick). Oh, and another RB. Those 3 defensive picks:
- Jalen Carter, who had off field and character concerns
- Luka Van Ness, who is not special athletically in any way, and was a high floor, safe pick. The Falcons have been very heavy on athletic freaks for years.
- the Edge guy the Jets took, who was a bit of a reach and is a legit question if he is a 3 down player, or a pass rush specialist.
I don't blame the Falcons at this junction to take what might have been the best player in the draft regardless of position. It certainly fit their philosphy, and if you don't follow your own philosophy and culture ideas then you are not going to win regardless.
I'm all on board with not paying RBs a 2nd contract and not drafting them when there are clear better options. The Lions for instance probably SHOULD have considered other options at their draft spot, with Corners a need for them and the run on corners about to begin. But the Falcons? they probably made the pick that made the most sense.
(and even the Lions, they ended up with a whole bunch of guys that were in most people's top 50 of players, regardless of position. Can you argue they should have drafted them in a different order? sure, but they ended up with a bunch of good football players.)
I'd argue there's a few teams that are building everything *but* the quarterback this year that will finish near the bottom with a hopes to land Caleb Williams next year as the missing piece that will have everything in place for him to rocket up.
This seems to be the approach now for a few teams with crap to journeyman level QBs, if you can't land one of the top prospects, build the rest of the team instead and inevitably tank without a QB so you can get the one you want the year after.
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Not a fan of the pick mind you but I like picking Gibbs in the first more than Robinson. Robinson is the better player but also the one likely to be ran into the ground due to the massive difference in play styles. Gibbs is a natural receiver and will probably spend half of his snaps lined up as such, he has Christian McCaffrey like value which is a lot more than a pure RB.
Robinson will probably win rookie of the year, be an elite back in the league and if he stays healthy get a huge 2nd contract then fall off the face of the earth like Zeke after getting that huge 2nd contract. That is how it gos for elite pure RBs, not worth wasting first round picks on them even with the fact Robinson is a stud. Jonathan Taylor was an even bigger stud than Robinson and that dude went in the 2nd because teams wisely passed on wasting a 1st on a RB who has limited years.
Gibbs will spend the majority of his career running to the edge as a change of pace guy and catching the ball taking way less punishment than a back expected to run up the middle 15 times a game. He will probably have a way longer and more productive career than Robinson even though Robinson will start hotter.
Last edited by Tech614; 2023-04-29 at 11:30 AM.
NFL has much quicker turnaround than other sports. You can do a 2-3 year rebuild with a good FO. I see most the excuse for the 2 RBs in the first round is they are dual threat. Teams trying to get their CMC or Kamara. Thing is, those weapons aren't gonna win you a ring. They'll help you win one, but alone they wont. It speaks more about the quality of top level talent in this draft more than anything. Seahawks have been direct about it, saying they are taking top guys on their boards rather than immediate needs and fleecing the Broncos again to load up for 24.
I mean if we go on where they were drafted and not a 'big time running back' the last 1st round running back on a Super Bowl winner was....the Chiefs with Edwards-Helaire. (Yes he was inactive for the SB but was on the roster so I think it still counts?)
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That's a funny take on it. I didn't realize Hurts played defense when his team gave up a 5 minute field goal drive to seal the game. You do realize that Hurts tied the game on his last real possession (not counting a desperation 6 second left pass as the final play). I think Hurts hung with Mahomes just fine.
I know it's not the direct point of the post--but a bit harsh to say he didn't hang with Mahomes. Plenty of folks out there would argue he outplayed him (I disagree--and certainly don't think he's on Mahomes' level). But he certainly hung with him just fine and was not the reason they lost--despite his one rough mistake.
Anyway--I also don't think the pick was terrible, as the options you noted were a bit risky. Carter was the obvious choice for the Falcons (whose pass defense was absolutely horrendous in all aspects--from a DVOA perspective)---but they may not have the culture to bring him in and they did attempt to plug some gaps there in free agency (but some are very temporary). The option not mentioned though--why not trade back and grab some assets? Maybe sneak in before the Pats and grab Christian Gonzalez (good pick btw)? Completely hypothetical and requires other teams to be interested--but just a thought.
The Falcons rushing offense is already quite good--especially their line. But their 3 backs actually had a solid rush-over-expected, so they aren't really slouches either. You can probably debate either way if Bijan has some diminishing returns there, or could maybe blow that number up and maximize their line's ability to create lanes. But yea--I don't hate the pick. I don't think it's the best thing for them, but it's not some disaster like some pundits are making it out to be. At least they can say they didn't get cute and took the best guy there.
Last edited by Espo; 2023-04-29 at 04:40 PM.
Browns got the Right Tackle I was hoping we would grab.
Meanwhile the Patriots traded with the Jets, which is wild enough, but they did it for a kicker.
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Last edited by Northern Goblin; 2023-04-29 at 04:51 PM.
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Rams take senior citizen QB.
Kind of surprised he went in the 4th, but I guess Haener went right before him.
Raiders finally give McDaniels a pet project. Dude can throw but he can't run to save his life.
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Haener is the guy I wanted us to pick if we were gonna get a mid-round QB.
/s
Of course the Patriots would be the team to draft both as kicker and a punter. Might as well go long snapper with one of their remaining picks.