How many max subs?

[Daarksoul]

I'm curious how many subs people think the game will max out at IN THE FIRST YEAR.
Note it's a 12 month time frame, not forever.

They already have 900,000 plus official preorders in the US alone, and people estimate it's as many as 3 million world wide.
Stats on Rift and Cata show 3 to 5 times as many new subs as pre-orders.
A poll on this wow fan site under the panda xpac had one third of wow players quitting for SWTOR, and over 50% playing it.
If representative that's 5 million subs!
People from RPG's can enjoy this game too, and Star Wars fans that aren't hard core gamers, so there could be a lot of new blood.
Also, if it starts to hit even 2-3 million, the gold farming market will show up and that's a lot more subs.
Some market analysts lowered Blizzard stock from buy to neutral, and Bobby Kotick just lost it in the press the other day.

So it's at least 1 million, but how high do you think it will go? Vote away!
Also, if endgame isn't great and PvP isn't balanced the numbers could fall away fast, so we're voting on PEAK SUBS here, not where it will be long term.

[Necrolepsy]

I think it's really hard to say. We haven't had a serious MMO contender to WoW yet.
Warhammer was a joke, it was released in basically an alpha state.
Rift is a direct competitor in the genre altogether, it did take a lot of players out of WoW, who largely either stayed or quit MMOs altogether.
Aion was never targeted at the West and still is profitable.
AoC was horrible like Warhammer.

SWTOR is the only product to date to be on this scale and polished on release in the MMO genre.
I'd say that realistically you'd have to seek a market analyst to get a real opinion, but based on my own predictions, they should aim for around 4 million subs in the first year alone, especially due to disgruntled WoW players changing games. Over the years, depending on content updates, community sense, marketing and direction of the game, the game could easily break WoW's record if it becomes popular and attracts the players who have quit as well as the people who had entered the MMO genre in the past decade.

[obdigore]

Over the first year I voted 5million. I notice you did not mention concurrent subs, so I would imagine that some will play this, then move on to other games when they decide they don't like it, and more people will get frustrated with other games and try it out.

If you do mean concurrent subs, I would vote between 2-3 unless it is better than I think it will be and more appealing to a wider audience.

[Necrolepsy]

Just found an article from such an analyst, who says that the Old Republics risk of failure is miniscule.

http://www.vg247.com/2011/12/01/anal...bility-claims/

[Meleti]

I'd say 3 million, but that's very conservative. 5 million could be possible.

[anathama]

I couldn't decide between 3 million and 5 million (y u no have 4 million option??), so I took 5 million See you all in-game!

[jvbastel]

I think it has every shot of becoming huge, I voted 5 million, although that might be a bit too optimistic.
Between WOW,SWTOR and GW2, the market might really change a lot next year

[Deleted]

I'd say 5 Million peak, and later getting stable at 2-3 Million.

[nazrakin]

Its not there, but my guess would be 1.5 million.

WOW has 5 million in the US/EU, so I highly doubt they'll reach that number in a single year. There aren't any plans to release in Asia yet, so it def won't be anywhere near 10-12 million.

[nogard46]

Just found an article from such an analyst, who says that the Old Republics risk of failure is miniscule.

wow Blizz CEO is bashing the game, thats classy of them!

[Meleti]

wow Blizz CEO is bashing the game, thats classy of them!

He's an Activision man. And kind of a dick (although EA isn't any better).

[obdigore]

He's an Activision man. And kind of a dick (although EA isn't any better).

They both got where they are through being dicks and selling themselves and their products. What makes you think that is going to stop now that they are in charge of these companies?

I was actually impressed with Activision when EA was doing 'lol above the call' and 'we hope COD dies' and activision was like 'more good FPSes are better for the industry, and we have faith in our game'. Was it because they in no way felt threatened by BF3? Probably. Does that mean that Bobby K does feel scared of SW:TOR? Possibly. Blizz, more specifically WoW, is surely one of Activisions biggest income streams. Yearly(ish) 60$ xpack releases along with monthly fees that easily cover the cost of the resources used... yea, I would do stuff to try and keep everyone I could playing WoW as well if I was in his shoes.

I don't know that calling the EA CEO a liar about something he said during an earnings call is the right way to go about it, but w/e.

[nogard46]

He's an Activision man. And kind of a dick (although EA isn't any better).

well it read and I quote "Activision Blizzard CEO Bobby Kotick"

yeah now everything makes a lot of sense why I hate WOW so much, why I think wow fails so hard.

[obdigore]

well it read and I quote "Activision Blizzard CEO Bobby Kotick"

yeah now everything makes a lot of sense why I hate WOW so much, why I think wow fails so hard.

Are you implying that the CEO has direct impact on class balance and the amount of content released? Blizzard still operates pretty independantly if I understand how the merger worked.

[Beliandra]

3 million peak, but down into six figures before the end of the first year.

[terrahero]

Are you implying that the CEO has direct impact on class balance and the amount of content released? Blizzard still operates pretty independantly if I understand how the merger worked.

Direct? no.
But indirectly, yes. There is no doubt in my mind that WoW: Cataclysm was a rushed product. Incomplete and shipped as such just to meet the releasedate that was obviously not set by the developers, who on several subjects had indicated they needed more time or wanted to do something diffirent. But were told they couldnt do it by their bosses. This indirectly effects class balace and content, and its so close even some might argue its plainly a direct interference.

As for the topic at hand, i can see SWTOR running stable at around 3 maybe 4 million subs. I think i read somewhere that they needed only a few 100k for it to be a succes. So i dont think this will bite Bioware in the ass. I'd say this is the first serious competition for WoW, together with GW2 and maybe Rift if they get it together, these will really start leeching subs away from WoW over the comming (couple) year(s).

[Fiddlesnarf]

My guess is probably around 2-3 million depending on how many and the state of game updates .

[Hulari]

I'd be happy with 2-3 million in the first year. When you think about WoW; it only has around 5-6 million in EU/US and I think it would be a good start for star wars.

[Mothhive]

lol Who voted 12 million?

Realistically, I think 2 or 3 Million active subs by the end of 2012.

[Deleted]

I really couldnt call this. Most of the people I know playing wow, will not even look at another game, they are obsessed. Also Guild wars 2 is going to throw a huge spanner in the mix. I think TOR will be a success but I just couldnt pick a number. 3-5mill would be a guess.