WOW is down to about 10 million according to their last statement to stockholders. First year I bet it will be around 3 mil.
I'm of the mindset that people are just like me, they have been looking for a new game to play or a replacement for wow. Nothing has really lived up to that and I always end up going back to wow because it's a solid game with competitive raids. Right now though their encounters are getting longer (like 10 min+) for the final encounters and learning those types of fights is excruciatingly painful. Those who progressed through Heroic Rag before it's health and damage was nerfed know what I'm talking about. I prefer the 6 minute fights and thought that was a real sweet spot when learning them.
As for SWTOR subs they might have a lot to start but I'm really hoping that the game grows. I know tons of people that are going to get the game to play on the side (and still play wow) and once those people are done with the story and there isn't as much to do pvp or pve wise at endgame they are probably going to cancel their subs. We're just going to have to see how it goes.