7 days till the *hit hits the fan. Or maybe not?

[Santoryu]

This is way off topic. I also do not agree with the nerfs, especially on heroic. But seriously, if you are still struggling with the content and actually trying to finish it, you probably weren't capable without the nerf.

don't blame LFR people because you couldn't finish before nerf

Who said I was/am struggling? And why is content being made purposely obsolete with nerfs? Give people time and they will learn!!

[rhorle]

Making the game easier was a good move, however making something easier doesn't mean it has to take up less time. When you're a subscription-based game, keeping people playing longer is always a good business move.

Indeed. Blizzard needs to still make things challenging while at the same time making it "easy". Its possible and I think normal mode DS has a decent balance of "easy" while still being challenging. Some people will always find easy stuff to be a challenge but they won't keep people with just easy. It is a game and people do want to be challenged.

I however also think they made Heroic modes to challenging with DS in that they favor class/role/spec stacking.

---------- Post added 2012-02-08 at 10:47 AM ----------

Who said I was/am struggling? And why is content being made purposely obsolete with nerfs? Give people time and they will learn!!

Just because content is changed doesn't mean it is obsolete. Also no amount of time and learning would make up for a lack of the right number of classes on Heroic Spine. Wait and Learn only work to a degree before you have to take other things into consideration.

[Kevyne-Shandris]

Cataclysm didn't give out 30 days of free game time when you bought it. Nor did it ever give out a 30 day trial.

Actually, Blizzard has offered 30 day trials -- and it's how I even got the first month for "free" in WotLK.

Oh, here's some more data...

http://www.gamespot.com/forums/topic/25630023

...Sigh...

[Deadmedic]

Feb. 8th is the big day for Acti-Blizz investors. I think any positive growth will be huge for the future of the game both short term and long. On the other hand a report of 1mill+ lost will be catastrophic. Especially in light of another game gaining 60k+ players a week since launch. If you were an investor would you pull that money and send it else where?

Investors need to hope that Bobby Kotick selling 45% of his Acti-Blizz shares is not a harbinger of things to come.

/discuss

you talk like bobby kotick pulling out of avtivision is a bad thing, personally i hope *very bad things* happens to the man, i have always hated his view on gaming, in many ways i blame him for blizzard not being able to take chances and deliver innovation

[Falkano]

Why are people talking abour swtor? What has that got to do with wow and Blizzards numbers that will be announced?

Trying to run damage control or deflect the issues onto a different game is pretty sad.

Whatever happens chances are we will see for the past 12 months over 2m people would have quit. That would be around 20% of the entire population gone within a year. You can talk about other games and their flaws until your hearts content but it won't change the numbers. It won't make a bit of difference.

Wow has been in decline for a longtime. That is a fact. You might not like it but it is one nether the less.

I think a more important question to ask is why? My answer would be a mixture of a lot of things but most likely due to Cata being just an awful expansion. When you re-use old content and pass it off as new content then it just shows you have run out of ideas. Add to this they keep changing the mechanics of the game and the classes means it will never settle. Everytime you change something you will make some happy but also make some unhappy. In regards to things such as healing they just ruined it because they thought it was "not fun" to heal before. And now we have more talk of things changing once again. Less talents, less skills and so on.

It is clear they run out of ideas ages ago and now think the best way to keep the game fresh is to keep messing around with the skills and the talents.

There is a saying which goes "If it aint broke then don't try and fix it". Well it wasen't broke but now it is and they have no clue how to fix it. And because of that people are leaving in their droves. They only have themselves to blame.

[rhorle]

Actually, Blizzard has offered 30 day trials -- and it's how I even got the first month for "free" in WotLK.

Oh, here's some more data...

http://www.gamespot.com/forums/topic/25630023

...Sigh...

That is the 30 day free game time. Notice how its from back in 2007. Which is well before the time period being discussed cataclysm and ghost crawlers "l2p" blog as you call it. Also notice how I said Cataclysm didn't give out 30 day's free with its purchase. I never said that there has never been 30 days free. Buying just the expansions didn't give out 30 days free. Buying the original (aka vanilla) gave the 30 days free. If you got the Original in a package with any of the expansion you only got 30 days free (and not 60 or 90 days free for getting one or two expansions in the package).

[Goretex]

I've been playing wow since vanilla, and still enjoy the game. I've tried some other mmo's such as aion, before and it fell flat on it's face. But I did pickup SWTOR and wanted to try it out. surprisingly it's better than i thought it would be and is a fun game and change of pace from wow. How long it will hold up idk but I'll still play it as a side game. Can't wait for D3 too I played guild wars once hated it, Rift never intrigued me didn't touch it. So idk I guess to each his own.

[reckoner04]

If warcraftrealms is so "exact" in predicting losses, what are the losses that will be announced tomorrow then? Please give me a number more exact than "between 100k and 500k lost", because that is not exact.

As for the "exact" time at which a drop occured: We don't know if those drops (as seen on warcraftrealms) actually led to their corresponding subscriber drops (from the reports), since the only reliable data (from the reports) is in a resolution of 3 months. All connections between data in a timeframe smaller than 3 months and the actual reports from Blizzard must be made through "common sense" by observing the real world. You can't produce proofs that way though, only assumptions. That's because they can't be confirmed without reports in higher resolution.

[Conscious]

If warcraftrealms is so "exact" in predicting losses, what are the losses that will be announced tomorrow then? Please give me a number more exact than "between 100k and 500k lost", because that is not exact.

It's not exact, in any way shape or form. But it has always been a good indicator, especially when it comes to losses and gains.

Just because it's going to tell you that WoW will have losses, doesn't mean it's going to give you the exact number, only Blizzard is privy to that information.

But what it has told us thus far is IF we'll have losses or gains, and a general idea of their size. It also does a decent job at, but not exactly, showing us how server populations are faring.

[romara]

Semantics, semantics. TOR required an active subscription to get the 30 free days, doesn't matter if you were billed then and there, you had to start a subscription.

I still haven't entered my credit card in TOR. I used a game card to start up my subscription and get the 30 days. I'm still on that time so I still haven't given them my credit card info.

[Kevyne-Shandris]

That is the 30 day free game time. Notice how its from back in 2007. Which is well before the time period being discussed cataclysm and ghost crawlers "l2p" blog as you call it.

You did say...

The 30 day free time comes with buying the initial WoW game but didn't come with BC or WotLK (it might come with the battle chest varieties).

In fact it did as the 2007 date proves it. Secondly, WotLK wasn't included in any battle chest, and I certainly did get the 30 day "free" game time.

I think your problem in this back-to-back thingie here is you can't remember what folks are actually posting, including your own words.

---------- Post added 2012-02-08 at 12:16 PM ----------

If warcraftrealms is so "exact" in predicting losses, what are the losses that will be announced tomorrow then? Please give me a number more exact than "between 100k and 500k lost", because that is not exact.

What is shows is what can be proved by Activision-Blizzard investor reports.

So far it's been 3 in 3, which is pretty darn good for accuracy (and much better than guesses).

[darklady]

its barely more than rift with a much superior budget, i wouldnt call that a noteworthy success.
it will end up as a niche game.

Based on everything I've read, it seems like that was their plan all along. They were never looking to be a WOW killer. That attitude alone ensures the game's long-term success.

[Defengar]

Based on everything I've read, it seems like that was their plan all along. They were never looking to be a WOW killer. That attitude alone ensures the game's long-term success.

Actually there was several interviews where Bioware's people said they are looking to directly compete with wow for the top position.

[Conscious]

Actually there was several interviews where Bioware's people said they are looking to directly compete with wow for the top position.

It's not like they have a choice.

[mvaliz]

It's not like they have a choice.

...originally I was going to write a response saying "sure, they do have a choice! Not everything is about being #1 in their given field!" but, then again, I think they needed to get to #1 spot just to recoup the rumored costs they've incurred during its development over so many years. :P

[Makoblade]

awwww mako what do you know fancy seeing you here

but seriously, look at what is happening on our own server and you can see it's plainly obvious that the game is in a state of decline. it wasn't bad decision making on my part, i saved money by doing so. the stock has been pretty stagnant since last summer and with nothing huge happening with the direction of the game/company as a whole, it was an easy choice for me to make.

ps: why did you guys go from a 25m heroic server first guild to a 10m heroic realm 7th or w/e you guys are at now? similarly, why is damnwesuck.com all about tor these days? yeah :\

Hiii! Not disagreeing that wow itself is in a decline, but there's a lot of excitement for D3.

And we switched from 25 to 10 because of a combination of star wars (people quitting), real life things (people quitting) and just generally bad quality recruits. We're also back at #1 though 10M is much easier to manage. Website is shared with the previous GM who is currently leading his star wars guild to victory or something.

[Kevyne-Shandris]

I just don't see WoW having ~10 million, and SWTOR having ~10 million at the same time.

Can't happen as the MMO market is small and each MMO title shares the same player base.

There's a hardcore base to every game, but most players aren't diehards and will travel to play other MMOs when released.

All of the MMOs need is about 1 million subs to stay profitable, so SWTOR and RIFT both have enough to sustain their franchises.

BUT, those subs do come at the expense of WoW (not all, but enough to be noticeable).

[rhorle]

You did say...In fact it did as the 2007 date proves it. Secondly, WotLK wasn't included in any battle chest, and I certainly did get the 30 day "free" game time.I think your problem in this back-to-back thingie here is you can't remember what folks are actually posting, including your own words.

2007 is only a date. That forum post you provided doesn't prove what version they bought as it only mentions WoW and doesn't mention Burning crusade. No 30 day free game time has been given out just for buying an expansion. The only way for you to get the 30 day free game time is with a new account and CD key for WoW. Activating the CD-key for BC, WotLK and Cata did not grant and never has granted 30 days of free game time. Only the purchase of WoW (original box) and the WoW Battle Chest has granted a "First month free" promotion. I never said that WotLK came in a battle chest only that the free game time was offered with the battle chest options.

The blizzard store even lists "First month free" for the Battle chest but not for WotLK. If it is as you say then why would they leave out a 60 day's of free game time from advertisement?

http://www.wowhead.com/forums&topic=...otlk-expansion
http://www.wowhead.com/forums&topic=...-no-free-month
http://www.wowhead.com/forums&topic=...nth-with-wotlk
http://www.amazon.com/free-month-wit...sin=B000VJTJNE
http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/53491...craft/61255145
http://www.mmo-champion.com/threads/...tLK-free-month
http://www.mmo-champion.com/threads/...-free-in-Wotlk
http://us.battle.net/wow/en/forum/topic/3988398837

Do I need to list more? WotLK and BC have never given any one 30 days free for purchasing them. Blizzard has only offered 30 days free with purchase of the original game. Never with any of the expansions.

[Pancaspe]

I am SMH at the hate.

This is Blizzard, the greatest game company in the world. If they were gone, maybe then you would see what you lost.

[rhorle]

All of the MMOs need is about 1 million subs to stay profitable, so SWTOR and RIFT both have enough to sustain their franchises.

TOR needs to make a lot more then 15 million a year to be profitable. If the rumors of its development costs are true only making 15 million a year would take a while for it to be profitable. For example if all 2 million of its sales were of just the standard version it would only have made 140 million from the sales (minus costs of selling it non-digital). It is rumored to have cost at least 200 million if not more.

They may be able to cover the expense of server upkeep with 1 million subs coming in but that is far from being profitable. Also TOR was hoping to do what WoW did and open the audience of MMO gamers so they weren't targeting just gamers but non-gamers that they could draw into becoming gamers. Games also don't have to lose subscriptions just because another game has gained them. Plenty of games have come out without WoW dropping by exactly their subscriber level. People can play more then one game after all. And people like different things after all.