Can Anet pull this off?

[solarbear]

I don't think GW2 will be a WOW-killer but it might be a strong WOW alternative. I really like what I am seeing and think it will be a success.

The truth of the matter is that LOTRO and DDO online both have made more money in a F2Play model than they did as P2P. GW1 obviously made
money with its B2Play formula.

If content comes out every few months that is worth buying, then the game will be successful. I like this model because it pressures them to release something worth buying.

[Standing]

I think subscription is irrelevant in and of itself, except in terms of take home profit. Vivendi has an old power point presentation from somewhere, a public corporate presentation for investors, regarding WoW's total overall revenues and expenses, to date, back in about 2008. Essentially, it was about 200 million spent on the game with well over 1 Billion in revenues. That's over 800 million in profit.

More money taken in by a developer doesn't necessarily mean more money spent on development. If a game fails and run out of money, obviously development for expansions will fall off. The point between what's successful and a failure for GW2 is something, as outsiders, we have no real basis to qualify anyway.

Guild Wars was an effective business model and made the founders millionaires. If GW2 plays well they will sell more, make more money, and this will probably get more people back for more expansions. Plus, I am sure they will probably add vanity stuff in game and other things to make money too.


edit: originally posted in wrong thread, oops.

[Roose]

I think that we are all about to find out Monday. If the game is as good as it sounds, there will be tons of video of it circulating the web. There is no better way to promote the game than showing unbelievable, actual gameplay.

Some games may choose to hide behind a NDA for fear that their game's flaws are revealed to the general public. That does not seem to be the intent with GW2. Seems to me they would keep a tight lid on filming unless they wanted to show off.

The only thing holding them back is, well, nobody really knows about this game unless they played DAoC or GW1. They need a way to get the game some major press and a successful beta including WvWvW footage would do just that. If it is what they say it is, the game will speak for itself and make people start paying attention to it.

Also, people are comparing it to other MMOs, but this is not the standard MMO. This will set the bar for MMO pvp. There are a ton of pvpers playing other games because they are forced to settle. Nothing else compares and nothing else will be similar for at least a few years.

---------- Post added 2012-02-19 at 12:13 AM ----------

Removal of the 'gear treadmill' will also open up the games appeal to people who don't have hundreds of hours to plough into a game to stay up to date. I also wouldn't underestimate the huge market pull that a truly competitive esport can bring in. Players will be able to play on a truly even playing field with regard to gear without needing to grind out weeks of matches to get geared. Finally, removal of the hardcore raiding schedule will bring even more players in.

I think the word of mouth buzz that will accompany this will be huge. There are simply too many drawbacks to other MMO's to easily talk your friends into trying an MMO like WoW.

A truly casual-friendly MMO that doesn't benefit one kind of player at the expense of the other kind (hardcore vs casual).

Very good points. They cater to casual play the right way. One of the biggest reason WoW holds so many is because they feel like they are invested in the game. I could not pull any of my friends away for TOR because the game simply was not different enough to justify giving up on all the time spent in WoW. "I do not want to have to bother with all that mess for no reason." Too similar to justify re-dedicating themselves. Not a problem in GW2.

---------- Post added 2012-02-19 at 12:20 AM ----------

Most games tend to build their art image around top settings and then filter down from there for medium to low end machines. What you get at lower graphic settings is only something of a piece of the original art work intent, and many games don't look good at medium or lower settings because of it. They are more piece meal, with rigid contrasts in color, complexity and detail. From a business perspective, I've always questioned whether this was a good thing or not: I doubt the majority of the gaming market have top end machines.

Graphically, Anet is taking a pretty good approach with what appears to be a design over technical detail by making sure low and medium settings present a consistent and enjoyable game world. Even on what appears to be lower settings various screen shots often show objects which blend well with the interface and other objects in the surrounding world. As said, Anet purchased older graphic cards no longer in production from ebay in order to test to make sure the game was playable on low end machines.

Some more good points. If they can capture as wide of a segment as WoW by making the game easily accessible for all it will put them in a great position. Nice to hear that they care about ALL of their customers getting a quality gaming experience. So much so that they are testing older hardware. I know of a certain developer that ignored all of that.

[Rife]

^ Oh yea. Totally.

You must be right!

[Midnight Man]

Good point. I think that GW2 is going to have a much larger potential market than a conventional MMO though. No subscription fee brings in many gamers who refuse to pay for a game past buying the box and people who simply cannot afford it. Removal of the 'gear treadmill' will also open up the games appeal to people who don't have hundreds of hours to plough into a game to stay up to date. I also wouldn't underestimate the huge market pull that a truly competitive esport can bring in. Players will be able to play on a truly even playing field with regard to gear without needing to grind out weeks of matches to get geared. Finally, removal of the hardcore raiding schedule will bring even more players in. Those guys who like the game but don't like the raiding or don't have the time etc. The smaller groups should encourage friends to play together rather than joining guilds for the sole purpose of participating in endgame content.

I think the word of mouth buzz that will accompany this will be huge. There are simply too many drawbacks to other MMO's to easily talk your friends into trying an MMO like WoW. "Hey dude, come play WoW, buy the game, get a subscription, level to X so you can quest/raid with me, then keep playing so you can keep up and lets hope it's fun. Try not to level faster/slower than me or play much when I'm not around etc". There is simply too many hoops to jump through.
Wheras GW2 would be something along the lines of "Hey dude, come play GW2, buy the game, log in and I'll come quest with you, we can do PvP if you want too, or hit up that dynamic event. You can play whenever and do whatever and no matter what we can still play the same things together. Even if you don't have much time now or have a sporadic schedule that's fine too because you won't be at a disadvantage or anything for not raiding 9/12 hours a week, but you might miss out on some of this badass gear I have."

A truly casual-friendly MMO that doesn't benefit one kind of player at the expense of the other kind (hardcore vs casual).

/tangent end

You sir just won the Internets. Kind of joking there, but very very seriously, this is one of the best summations of the situation I've read in a long time.

+1

[frogger237]

You do realize that "Free2Play" games make tons more money on average than a subscription based game right?

If you look at Guild Wars, https://secure.ncsoft.com/cgi-bin/St...ory&category=4, they have several different "extras" that you can purchase besides the expansions. Sure if you want the bare minimum and aren't buying anything else then yeah your costing them money individually but the people who do buy the extras end up paying for anywhere between 2-20(yes seriously there are people who pay 2k on f2p games a month) peoples usage.

[Mkalafut]

You do realize that "Free2Play" games make tons more money on average than a subscription based game right?

If you look at Guild Wars, https://secure.ncsoft.com/cgi-bin/St...ory&category=4, they have several different "extras" that you can purchase besides the expansions. Sure if you want the bare minimum and aren't buying anything else then yeah your costing them money individually but the people who do buy the extras end up paying for anywhere between 2-20(yes seriously there are people who pay 2k on f2p games a month) peoples usage.

I dumped so much money into GW1. I bought character slots, (I have 20 slots) and extra storage panes (Own them all) and costumes (Own them all) and skill packs, bonus missions, etc (own literally every cash item from GW1 store).

I like to think of it as money I would have spent playing another pay to play MMO anyway. I justify the costs of the cash shop because it affects gameplay 0% (in that you can't buy power or stronger items or anything - they're all cosmetic or convenient only). It's also, like I said earlier, money I would have otherwise spent on another MMO. I plan on doing the same in GW2. The extra character slots, storage slots, and missions provided so much convenience and more fun it was worth every penny IMO.

Plus the costumes are a good way to support the devs and I support that 100%. Especially since you can, for no in game cost - EVER, buy the costumes on every character you make.

[omlech]

You sir just won the Internets. Kind of joking there, but very very seriously, this is one of the best summations of the situation I've read in a long time.

+1

Yeah, ANet really is set to attract users from many different places in one fell swoop and in some cases from places no other MMO has tried or been successful in attracting for various reasons.

[Mkalafut]

Yeah, ANet really is set to attract users from many different places in one fell swoop and in some cases from places no other MMO has tried or been successful in attracting for various reasons.

I agree, and I'm actually really confidant that they'll pull it off, too. They just have so much that will appeal to the many different crowds.

[Rife]

Yeah, ANet really is set to attract users from many different places in one fell swoop and in some cases from places no other MMO has tried or been successful in attracting for various reasons.

All the other MMO's I've seen coming out on the market in the last few years have all been cut of the same cloth. This may be a touch melodramatic - Since the release, and super-stardom of WoW, there has been no good attempt at variation or real improvement on the toolbox of which developers use to create an MMO. Everyone else has come out with the same toolbox with one less tool that everyone hated and one new tool that's shiny but in reality, regardless of hype, they've been distilled down into yet another WoW.
- Rift had dynamic events (rifts) which were set to redfine the MMO landscape. They ended up being a dozen or so of kill X and collect Y with these new animations or in this random location in this zone.
- SW:ToR had cinematics and enthralling quests. The entire game is an exact meta-copy of WoW with shinier quests. You still killed X and talked to Z and collected Y. The story chains where pretty awesome, but once you hit 50 (the majority of an MMO gamers play time) you ended up doing the exact same things as WoW except with more bugs and fewer options.
- Tera has the anime angle and targeted FPS style game-play that is fun. But also very limiting because all you end up doing is mashing 2/3 abilities while targeting a mob. PvP may be another story entirely but the PvE aspect was the same as WoW with a new targeting mechanic dury-rigged into a game that would be just as playable with a regular tab-targeting system.

What all this is leading to is to simply say that (from my experience) there has been no 'big' MMO released in the last 8 years that broke the mold and comparing this upcoming release with anything else at the moment is a stab in the dark at best. GW2 will be huge. Numbers aside, the impact that an entirely fresh system will bring to this stagnant genre will be huge.

[omlech]

I agree, and I'm actually really confidant that they'll pull it off, too. They just have so much that will appeal to the many different crowds.

Yep, they have something for everyone.

---------- Post added 2012-02-19 at 12:45 AM ----------

All the other MMO's I've seen coming out on the market in the last few years have all been cut of the same cloth. This may be a touch melodramatic - Since the release, and super-stardom of WoW, there has been no good attempt at variation or real improvement on the toolbox of which developers use to create an MMO. Everyone else has come out with the same toolbox with one less tool that everyone hated and one new tool that's shiny but in reality, regardless of hype, they've been distilled down into yet another WoW.
- Rift had dynamic events (rifts) which were set to redfine the MMO landscape. They ended up being a dozen or so of kill X and collect Y with these new animations or in this random location in this zone.
- SW:ToR had cinematics and enthralling quests. The entire game is an exact meta-copy of WoW with shinier quests. You still killed X and talked to Z and collected Y. The story chains where pretty awesome, but once you hit 50 (the majority of an MMO gamers play time) you ended up doing the exact same things as WoW except with more bugs and fewer options.
- Tera has the anime angle and targeted FPS style game-play that is fun. But also very limiting because all you end up doing is mashing 2/3 abilities while targeting a mob. PvP may be another story entirely but the PvE aspect was the same as WoW with a new targeting mechanic dury-rigged into a game that would be just as playable with a regular tab-targeting system.

What all this is leading to is to simply say that (from my experience) there has been no 'big' MMO released in the last 8 years that broke the mold and comparing this upcoming release with anything else at the moment is a stab in the dark at best. GW2 will be huge. Numbers aside, the impact that an entirely fresh system will bring to this stagnant genre will be huge.

Indeed, it's going to be bigger than most people realize. I've yet to personally see any negative impressions or press on the game and A LOT of people have played it in the past 1.6 years. I don't mean I haven't seen trolls spread misinformation, I haven't seen anyone who's given legitimately thought out negative impressions. I'm fully expecting 1 million sales in the first 24 hours and they haven't even started the marketing engine yet.The Beta Weekends in March/April is going to do amazing things for their sales. If they handle the Beta Weekends like GW1 and preordering gets you into the Beta, I'm going to assume they'll be dropping the NDA at that point considering how easy it will be to get in it would be pointless to keep it up. I won't be surprised if they hit 1.5-2 million in the first month.

[Gaexion Ramza Beoulve]

Ask yourself if WoW is worth the money you pay every year.

$180 Yearly
$40 for an expac
$220 a year($18 a month)

3 Tiers of Raiding
12 Dungeons
2 Battlegrounds
1 World PvP zone

Now let's say we go a year and a half, the value of content goes down even more.

[Mkalafut]

Ask yourself if WoW is worth the money you pay every year.

$180 Yearly
$40 for an expac
$220 a year($18 a month)

3 Tiers of Raiding
12 Dungeons
2 Battlegrounds
1 World PvP zone

Now let's say we go a year and a half, the value of content goes down even more.

You should read the GW2 forum rules. I'm pretty sure talk like that isn't allowed. While I agree that WoW is definitely a cash cow, this is not the place for that kind of discussion. Keep it relevant to the "GW2 & Buy to play" model instead of how WoW's pricing is.

[Fencers]

Depends on the quality of the content. If I blow through all tier in 2 months- maybe. But I am lead to believe that isn't actually the case for many in Warcraft. And I know it is absolutely true in Rift.

I pay for Warcraft 3 months at a time, Rift for 1 1/2 years and SWTOR for 6 months. Tera pre-ordered. I am having a blast in all.

"Value" comes down to personal taste.

[Mkalafut]

Depends on the quality of the content. If I blow through all tier in 2 months- maybe. But I am lead to believe that isn't actually the case for many in Warcraft. And I know it is absolutely true in Rift.

I pay for Warcraft 3 months at a time, Rift for 1 1/2 years and SWTOR for 6 months. Tera pre-ordered. I am having a blast in all.

"Value" comes down to personal taste.

Agreed. That's what I tell people when they ask me how I spent so much in GW1 cash shop. I haven't payed for WoW in 5 years (buying time cards for gold FTW) but I wouldn't pay another cent and I am not buying MoP. I also didn't buy a single cash shop item because I didn't feel it was worth it.

[Kathion]

I think its sad that just because its a PC game a monthly fee is expected. I mean look at call of duty..They keep selling people what is essential the SAME DAMN SHIT, and millionssssssssss get sold.

[Fencers]

Agreed. That's what I tell people when they ask me how I spent so much in GW1 cash shop. I haven't payed for WoW in 5 years (buying time cards for gold FTW) but I wouldn't pay another cent and I am not buying MoP. I also didn't buy a single cash shop item because I didn't feel it was worth it.

That's why I love cash shops. Because it allows people to chose what they feel is reasonable. Allowing individuals to spend either time or money as they have in excess is awesome.

Subscription games I feel are way out of date unless the sub pays for extraordinary service. Which only like 2-3 companies are able to provide. As I said on page 1, SWTOR might be the last big sub MMO we see for a long time.

[Mkalafut]

That's why I love cash shops. Because it allows people to chose what they feel is reasonable. Allowing individuals to spend either time or money as they have in excess is awesome.

Subscription games I feel are way out of date unless the sub pays for extraordinary service. Which only like 2-3 companies are able to provide. As I said on page 1, SWTOR might be the last big sub MMO we see for a long time.

I agree. The model is just way outdated and people are finally realizing that "good" MMOs don't need a P2P system.

[Kouki]

No monthly fee.

When you think about how awesome this game is with its wide ranging features and incredible 'persistent' world, do you think ArenaNet is capable of handling its own game without a monthly fee? I cannot picture how they can do something like this on a grand scale, with such a popular game, and keep the lights on at their office.

I'm in love with what I'm reading, and hearing, but I fear what might happen if the severs end up lagging or having to be reduced in number. If the technical aspects of it all cannot be managed on their budget.

So the question is, will they do it, can Anet pull this off?

I'd be heart broken if such great ideas were tarnished by choosing the wrong financial model for the game.

As the video in the first reply says there is no such thing as a server upkeep cost, if 1million boxes sell thats 60 million to spend on upkeep.

Guildwars 1 ran the same model and never had a problem, it has many expansions and did not shovel out 15 bucks a month or sell ridiclous 25 doller mounts server transfers are free not 25 bucks and nothing about arena net is greed based.

it will thrive in the wake of failtor.

[omlech]

That's why I love cash shops. Because it allows people to chose what they feel is reasonable. Allowing individuals to spend either time or money as they have in excess is awesome.

Subscription games I feel are way out of date unless the sub pays for extraordinary service. Which only like 2-3 companies are able to provide. As I said on page 1, SWTOR might be the last big sub MMO we see for a long time.

Yeah, I've been saying the same thing for a while now. All you need to do is look at how many MMOs in development have changed their payment model mid development or how many F2P MMOs are being developed now versus even a few years ago.