# Thread: Blizzard's Secret Luck Button

1. Back in WOTLK i tanked on a pala and for ages my guild was farming 10 man hc, for ages i wanted the Neverending winter, anyway we farming for weeks and it only dropped once but I lost the roll, ( we didn't have a solid off tank so I usually had to compete with gear every week) anyway I complained to a GM about my luck on the drop and on loot rolls, he said there's nothing he can do, half an hour later we raided, the neverending winter dropped and I rolled 100 lol I was like, dafuq, you sneaky GM! Perhaps it was coincidence

2. It's just a confirmation bias.

You only notice streaks of good RNG when they occur which causes you to believe there's some hidden mechanic that causes that streak to occur.

3. Originally Posted by chrth
EDIT: Also, if you flip a coin ten times, you have the same chance to see HHHHHHHHHH as you do HTHTHTHTHT
This definitely is not true.

You have an equal chance to get heads or tails on each flip, but the likelihood of flipping the exact thing 10 times in a row is *very* small.

4. People love finding patterns where there are none. Obsess about it enough, and you're insane. Extrapolating causality from a sample size of two isn't logical or mathematically sound.

---------- Post added 2013-01-03 at 08:17 PM ----------

Originally Posted by Jaxsz
This definitely is not true.

You have an equal chance to get heads or tails on each flip, but the likelihood of flipping the exact thing 10 times in a row is *very* small.
Someone should have read the chapter on combinatorics after they finished probability.

5. Originally Posted by Jaxsz
This definitely is not true.

You have an equal chance to get heads or tails on each flip, but the likelihood of flipping the exact thing 10 times in a row is *very* small.
Yes... and so is the chance of flipping HTHTHTHTHT
The chances of flipping HTHTHTHTHT and HHHHHHHHHH are both an identical value of *very* small
They're also identical to the chances of flipping HHHHHTTTTT and HHHTTTHHTT

6. To whomever finds the "secret button," let's go to Vegas and we'll find the "secret button" they use on the slot machines there.

Also, is there a secret button on women as well? ::dodges tomatoes::

7. It seems obvious that there is a secret button.

8. I don't know... but i have a lot of friends farming Glaives or Thunderfury without luck, but last week\timer 3 of them got glaives and i got a binding... Christmas 'bonus' on drop chances?

9. Why would Blizz purposefully add something exploitable?

10. Blizz has a lucky button...the gold charms for loot. People bitched that they're hard to get as a casual. People bitched that they're hard to get as a badcore. People bitched that they only ever give gold. People bitched that they don't give you PVP gear (even if they do on Sha).

I cannot fathom the amount of bitching you'd get from a 'luck button'.

11. After almost 6 years of playing, i can safely say that there's 2 buttons;
1) RAINBOW SHOWER OF LOOT
2) FUCKED YOU OVER AGAIN LOL

Button 1 will give you all the loot you've ever desired, but it's got a chance to fail in the middle of a streak.
Button 2 will ensure that the loot you want will not drop that week.

I can safely say, that for 5 years, Illidan has been hitting button 2 regarding my shield. He hit button 1 once, but it was the week i wasn't available to raid. I'm quite confident i'll get Ashes, White Hawkstrider, the Legendary Bow, all the fragments for Val'anyr, the mats for Sulfuras, and both glaives before i see the shield drop, and i'm a Paladin at that.

Nefarian though, his finger slipped last week and he accidentally all over the floor. Tried to press the other button, but failed to realize that the luck would just spread to other bosses too.

Originally Posted by Herecius
Chat gem 2.0.

I always keep a Lucky Rock in my bags...
That's the problem. You're meant to throw it at the boss 0.5 seconds before they die. That increases the chance they'll land on button 1, which instantly counters button 2 (whereas the other way around makes the luck multiply).

12. Actually, this has been discussed with my friends many times.

Basically for many years and because the internet was and is really slow to evolve here in Greece, net cafes were and still are a very serious trend here which means i have seen lots and lots of different people play every game that i might have played, you can understand in 8 years of WoW how many different people i have seen (Different net cafes also, not only one since then).

Ever since 2005 when WoW launched we have noticed this exact pattern:

The least active those that quit and restart all the time, pretty much get everything rare or that fits their character fastest than anyone.

Sure, the first time its luck....the second time..the 10th its simply not luck, the game simply rewards some people better than others.

It simply does not seem as RNG every single time some random casual that hasnt touched the game for a year, decides to re-sub, runs 5 dungeons, gets 100% of the loot he needs in the first run of every boss + a rare mount out of nowhere, that someone more active has been farming for the last year.

My opinion at least..It happens way too often to be a "coincidence", over the last few years, the least active players in this net cafes that i randomly hang out, would get the rarest mount/items before anyone else, while the no-life run the instance whenever possible would never get it.

13. I know of better ways for items.

14. I've been farming so many mounts over the years... And I don't have 1. Not 1 single mount that I've been farming. And I do everything that I can everyday/week.

People say RNG is RNG, but the fact that I have yet to see any mount drop of any sort just flusters me.

15. Originally Posted by Gurushockin
I've been farming so many mounts over the years... And I don't have 1. Not 1 single mount that I've been farming. And I do everything that I can everyday/week.

People say RNG is RNG, but the fact that I have yet to see any mount drop of any sort just flusters me.
Unlucky's not the same as impossible.
It'd be more unlikely that there were no people that didn't get what they wanted.
I understand that it is frustrating... but it is definitely still RNG. It is just hard for people to wrap their heads around random numbers so they make up stupid excuses and look for patterns that do not exist.

16. No, there's no "luck button". But when there's 10 million players, some of them are going to get lucky more often than others. Just like how most people never win the lottery but a few do. If you were to design a bell-curve of people's loot winnings, the vast majority would reflect expected results, and there'd be a few out-liers of both extremely lucky and extremely unlucky people.

17. I've always thought this. My experience was after when I was hacked and after I got my items back/finished with talking to the GM, within the hour I recieved the White Hawkstrider and the Sea turtle.

18. Originally Posted by Twisted Spirit
If you read my post you'll see I said it was just coincidence! The question was placed to the forum on their thoughts!

---------- Post added 2013-01-03 at 11:27 PM ----------

The blue drake drops in 10 man malygos! No need to run lfd oculus!
10,270 wowhead hits say you are wrong... never dropped in 10 man malygos

19. Originally Posted by Azrile
10,270 wowhead hits say you are wrong... never dropped in 10 man malygos
http://i.imgur.com/pv3gW.jpg
:?

20. Originally Posted by potis
Actually, this has been discussed with my friends many times.

Basically for many years and because the internet was and is really slow to evolve here in Greece, net cafes were and still are a very serious trend here which means i have seen lots and lots of different people play every game that i might have played, you can understand in 8 years of WoW how many different people i have seen (Different net cafes also, not only one since then).

Ever since 2005 when WoW launched we have noticed this exact pattern:

The least active those that quit and restart all the time, pretty much get everything rare or that fits their character fastest than anyone.

Sure, the first time its luck....the second time..the 10th its simply not luck, the game simply rewards some people better than others.

It simply does not seem as RNG every single time some random casual that hasnt touched the game for a year, decides to re-sub, runs 5 dungeons, gets 100% of the loot he needs in the first run of every boss + a rare mount out of nowhere, that someone more active has been farming for the last year.

My opinion at least..It happens way too often to be a "coincidence", over the last few years, the least active players in this net cafes that i randomly hang out, would get the rarest mount/items before anyone else, while the no-life run the instance whenever possible would never get it.
You are correct. 50% of the people will always be rewarded more than the other 50% of the people. That is exactly how RNG works.

I am not going to do the math, but if 10 million people have killed 200 raid bosses.. there is a really really high chance that many of those 10 million people have never seen a drop. There is also probably a few people who have had every single raid boss kill drop loot for them.

There will ALWAYS be a bunch of people who are extremely lucky, and a bunch of people who are extremely unlucky. However, if an extremely lucky person and an extremely unlucky person do a raid together, kill a boss.. both of those people have the exact same chance of receiving loot.. If you flip a fair coin 9 times and it comes up heads each time.. the tenth flip is STILL 50-50.

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