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  1. #21
    Spam Assassin! MoanaLisa's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Falrach View Post
    They will just pick the highest subscription-count they had in the past 6 months and call it a gain.
    That's not how they do it as a rule. They usually report active subscriptions as of the final day of the quarter, i.e. 12/31/12. If a subscription expires on 01/01/13, it'll be active on the 31st and count. Generally you don't just get to pick the best number for this sort of financial reporting.

    We'll see though. In fact, they aren't really required to release any subscription information at all, just financials.
    "...money's most powerful ability is to allow bad people to continue doing bad things at the expense of those who don't have it."

  2. #22
    My predictions:

    -The number of subscribers has changed
    -People will still keep playing
    -Haters keep hating

    yeah...

  3. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mojo Risin View Post
    http://www.blizzplanet.com/blog/comm...-on-feb-7-2013


    What do you think we'll learn?
    My predictions:

    • MoP has upped the subscription number to around 11 million, which has then suffered a small decline again to around 10.5 million, fluctuating between patches.
    • Blizzcon 2013 will be announced, and we'll receive a date for the event and for when tickets will go on sale.
    I predict that we will not see an announcement for Blizzcon 2013, and I predict that we'll see a raft of haters making new threads accusing Blizzard of faking the numbers

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  4. #24
    Spam Assassin! MoanaLisa's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mvallas View Post
    Not to mention I believe CRZ still is a hated problem, at least for levelers - not the people in Pandaria.
    On PVP realms I would agree. There aren't really that many PVP realms though and CRZ effects on those realm leveling zones are unlikely to have some huge effect on numbers one way or another.

    I more or less agree with your numbers though, down maybe 500K, maybe more.

    At the end of the day, they'll still be the largest pay-to-play MMO by a large factor so the next three weeks of impassioned threads about this won't mean much.
    "...money's most powerful ability is to allow bad people to continue doing bad things at the expense of those who don't have it."

  5. #25
    Personally I reckon we will find that the subs are

    A) Stable at 10mil

    or

    B) A slight gain to something like 10.5mil
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  6. #26
    Quote Originally Posted by BenBos View Post
    It is 3 weeks, not 2.

    This being said: the in game WoW activity is bigger than this time last year. But that doesn't take into account the China players.

    Blizzard will no longer play the decimal game like 10.2 or 10.1.

    My bet is that they will have a statement of "over 10 million subs" as the flow of the subs is no longer an issue for the in game players activity.

    CRZ solved that problem for good. 2 million or 10 million, world zones are now being populated all the time.
    Awesome! You decide to pick up on a minor point rather than address the issue at hand.

    You are spouting nonsense the subscription numbers have not been anything other than marketing spin for a long time. You and no one outside of the higher ranks of Blizzard have any idea whether or not the flow of subs is an issue.

    If WOW has held onto 10 million I'd say it has done well.

  7. #27
    Annual pass is expired for a lot of people. It's anyone's guess as to how it turns out.

  8. #28
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    Since they count people that have subscribed at some point the last 3 month id say the subs should be 500k+.
    Blizzard keep the content patching rolling at quite the phase (with 5.1 in middle of tier and 5.2 coming very soon).

    But I must admit the game is getting kinda old and dull so they have to lose more subs within the coming years.

  9. #29
    Titan Arbs's Avatar
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    I guessing around 10.4 Mill, WoW will be one of the least presented this conference call. it will be about SC2 HotS, Blizzard All-Stars, Blizzcon & possibly Titan.
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  10. #30
    Quote Originally Posted by Cows For Life View Post
    Annual pass is expired for a lot of people. It's anyone's guess as to how it turns out.
    Only like 1 million or so signed up for the AP, doesn't really make a big impact.
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  11. #31
    Quote Originally Posted by b0sanac View Post
    Only like 1 million or so signed up for the AP, doesn't really make a big impact.
    ...that's 10% of the current audience, son. :P

  12. #32
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    I expect a very small dip, I don't think a game as old as wow can gain that many subs aside from just after expec releases.we will see though, I think mop has been a very successful expansion, I expect around 9.7m subs

  13. #33
    Quote Originally Posted by b0sanac View Post
    Personally I reckon we will find that the subs are

    A) Stable at 10mil

    or

    B) A slight gain to something like 10.5mil
    Of course you are right.

    People forgot that 9.1 million was really an exceptional situation back in June 2012 and the launch of MoP brought it back up.

    - 1. Diablo 3 launched a few weeks earlier, selling an unseen 10 million PC copies (world record) in the same Blizzard stable.
    - 2. WOW didn't have a content update at the time of 6 months.
    - 3. Summertime always has a lot less activity.
    - 4. The newer kids on the block were still green and shiny (well SW TOR's grass was already turning yellow ish and GW2 was supposed to cure cancer).

    In no way subscriptions will fall throughout the winter with 500K numbers UNLESS China is smoked under in their fog problems and players no longer find the way to their internet cafés...

    Long story short: where would these players even go to ? All Lores are already used up in the last 5 years...
    Last edited by BenBos; 2013-01-19 at 01:28 AM.

  14. #34
    Deleted
    Quote Originally Posted by Archdruid Dehydrate View Post
    I guessing around 10.4 Mill, WoW will be one of the least presented this conference call. it will be about SC2 HotS, Blizzard All-Stars, Blizzcon & possibly Titan.

    Any info on Titan will be saved for blizzcon, they didn't have one last year so I think we're getting something big this year

  15. #35
    Quote Originally Posted by mvallas View Post
    ...that's 10% of the current audience, son. :P
    Still, for most people the AP would have ran out around October 2012, and seeing as the subs have increased and not decreased I think we could say that many people didnt quit.
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  16. #36
    Quote Originally Posted by Archdruid Dehydrate View Post
    I guessing around 10.4 Mill, WoW will be one of the least presented this conference call. it will be about SC2 HotS, Blizzard All-Stars, Blizzcon & possibly Titan.
    There is no way in hell that they will reveal Titan before Blizzcon,unless it gets leaked

  17. #37
    The Undying Slowpoke is a Gamer's Avatar
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    MoP is holding steady at about 10-10.5 million players.

    Blizzcon 2013 announced.

    Profits are up from services, D3, and the pet store.
    FFXIV - Maduin (Dynamis DC)

  18. #38
    Quote Originally Posted by b0sanac View Post
    Still, for most people the AP would have ran out around October 2012, and seeing as the subs have increased and not decreased I think we could say that many people didnt quit.
    Not to mention the amount of "upset" people who had the annual pass, and made up fruadulent reasons in order to break their contracts.

  19. #39
    The Undying Slowpoke is a Gamer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BenBos View Post
    The fact they announce it this early is a good sign for the group.

    Mostly it is around the last days of the previous month.

    The in game activity tools show a higher activity than this period last year and then the subs stood at 10.2 million.

    The sad fact is that Warcraft realm status tools depend on ... around 60 people worldwide, so they are of no use.

    My prediction is OVER 10 million active subscriptions and Blizzard as a group over 1.4 billion dollars revenue.

    The 9.1 million figure of the Quarter ending in June 2012 was only due to the Diablo launch in that quarter.

    The total Activision Blizzard group will come to around 4.9 billion dollars with a net reserve capital without debts of around 3.2 billion dollars.

    ---

    The "more than 10 million subscriptions" statement will come as a blow to every other MMORPG that had to turn to F2P trics and cash shops to survive.

    I don't see any competition in that field throughout 2013. Internally SC2 is no threath to WOW subscriptions and BAS will probably be promoted through WOW sub deals in the last days of 2013.

    No other information will be given as this is just some financial stuff and bookkeeping.
    Warcraft Realm is broken as well. They've got a backlog going back about a month due to various bugs in the processing system.

    I opened it today and it said Dwarf was the most played Alliance race, and there were more Warlocks than Paladins.
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  20. #40
    Quote Originally Posted by mvallas View Post
    ...that's 10% of the current audience, son. :P
    And 50% of the closest rival and more than double of the rest of the competition.

    ---------- Post added 2013-01-19 at 02:20 AM ----------

    Quote Originally Posted by dokhidamo View Post
    MoP is holding steady at about 10-10.5 million players.

    Blizzcon 2013 announced.

    Profits are up from services, D3, and the pet store.
    Pretty much the only thing stockholders really care about.

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