Activision-Blizzard a declining stock? How it effects WoW?

[Banzhe]

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1147...e?source=yahoo

Reading this article, how does the guy come up with what looks like 6 million subs currently playing WoW?

If thats the case, Blizz better right the ship because after the final patch for MoP, you're looking at 1 maybe 2 million subs until launch of the next expansion.

Edit:

Misread the graph, looks like its just this guys own conclusions. Apparently current subs are at 8 mil.

Where do you get 8 million subs from as they haven't released any numbers recently? I hope it's from the speculative article...

[Arbs]

Where do you get 8 million subs from as they haven't released any numbers recently? I hope it's from the speculative article...

We will know on Tuesday for Q4 2012 & wont hear about this stuff again until May 2013 for Q1 2013.

[Bremmon]

Ya most of the WoW community doesn't care about subs, its the haters & people proclaiming WoW is dead seem really only care about the sub numbers. We play the game everyday & know how packed & strong the game is.

Lol you obviously do not play on my dead realm..... 280+ realms and about 200 of them are barren waste lands of people to poor, or too cheap to transfer.

[mercutiouk]

Titan is years away, maybe even a decade they have it hidden for when WOW really starts tanking and that wont happen soon.

Depends how development goes. The leaked release shedule for d3/sc2/expansions/etc have titan released at the end of next year:




Yes, that's all very unofficial, is several years old, etc, etc. It does indicate they aren't (or weren't) planning to hold it in reserve for WoW. Pretty sure it was a slide shown at an investors seminar type effort. It's been (relatively) accurate though so probably was a fair representation of their intended releases.

If you think about it, cata seemed like a "join the dots" version of a wow expansion. It had all the basic elements but not really much "life" in it. In short, it seemed like a lazy expansion. If a company is lazy they probably assume they don't need to work too hard. Now if they were assuming wow was an invincible cash cow when they presented that release slide it would make a pretty solid case for them not holding Titan in reserve. I'll explain...

You don't tell your investors about a release you have planned to run alongside your glorious MMO then delay it at the same time as fire fighting a loss of subs. They'd be more likely to speed up titan than slow it down if they were panicking about WoW.

In short, I think we'll be VERY likely to hear something about Titan at Blizzcon this year. More should become clear after. If they stick with a fall 2014 release we'd probably get beta testing (and a boatload of good info) around the middle of next year.

[Arbs]

Depends how development goes. The leaked release shedule for d3/sc2/expansions/etc have titan released at the end of next year:




Yes, that's all very unofficial, is several years old, etc, etc. It does indicate they aren't (or weren't) planning to hold it in reserve for WoW. Pretty sure it was a slide shown at an investors seminar type effort. It's been (relatively) accurate though so probably was a fair representation of their intended releases.

If you think about it, cata seemed like a "join the dots" version of a wow expansion. It had all the basic elements but not really much "life" in it. In short, it seemed like a lazy expansion. If a company is lazy they probably assume they don't need to work too hard. Now if they were assuming wow was an invincible cash cow when they presented that release slide it would make a pretty solid case for them not holding Titan in reserve. I'll explain...

You don't tell your investors about a release you have planned to run alongside your glorious MMO then delay it at the same time as fire fighting a loss of subs. They'd be more likely to speed up titan than slow it down if they were panicking about WoW.

In short, I think we'll be VERY likely to hear something about Titan at Blizzcon this year. More should become clear after. If they stick with a fall 2014 release we'd probably get beta testing (and a boatload of good info) around the middle of next year.

Well they have been working on it for years, It be nice if we heard something this Blizzcon. But the WoW Movie says Q4 2012 & we were just told about a target 2015 release.

[Celista]

Well they have been working on it for years, It be nice if we heard something this Blizzcon. But the WoW Movie says Q4 2012 & we were just told about a target 2015 release.

Blizzard has less control over a film than a game or expansion release, their product slate likely doesn't account for the numerous delays that tie up the average Hollywood film.

[stomination]

1. Write Article bashing a game.
2. Post link to said article in forums fansites with the intent to get ppl to talk about it.
3. ???????
4. Profit from the sheep.

[BenBos]

The author seems to know his shit. The fanbois rushed in the comments to bash him.

But thats right he is a "hater" and mmo-champ form posters know more than him

We trash talk him for his previous articles, where he made clear where he is coming from.

Conclusions like : "Through my research (sic), I never read a single comment from a player who had re-found his love for the game (WOW), and/or believes the game is superior to Guild Wars 2.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/9158...-earnings-down

are so ridiculous along with the lying part in both that article itself and the reaction to posters afterwards, it is ALL very clear.

.... of course this time he avoided his GW2 pep talk of last Sep as that would look him like an even bigger fool.

So looking upon these older posts, the man is just another brain dead WoW hater, with fake figures (8 million subs in last summer lies) and "30-50%"(sic) subs losses from 2009-2012 (realitiy was 10-24%) and so the guy deserved to be put in his underpants earlier in this thread.

Calling this guy a stock analist shows why our stocks are going nowhere.

It is sadly not even a question of Activision Blizzard or Apple or other stocks: it is better to play the roulette than listening to these fools (does anyone remember their pep talk about SW TOR that would put EA's stocks through the roof because it would attain 12 M subs ? ...).

If you would read the previous article and the reactions : http://seekingalpha.com/article/9158...-earnings-down

No serious follower of this industry will EVER read stock brokers on video games again.

That's the really sad part. Just another future MBA putting holes into your saving pockets... as "this" kind of knowledge is the average kind of BS they publish on every sector of the economy... Yep it is this amateurish (no wonder it exploded already several times on Wall Street).

[But I Hate You All]

We trash talk him for his previous articles, where he made clear where he is coming from.

Conclusions like : "Through my research (sic), I never read a single comment from a player who had re-found his love for the game (WOW), and/or believes the game is superior to Guild Wars 2.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/9158...-earnings-down

are so ridiculous along with the lying part in both that article itself and the reaction to posters afterwards, it is ALL very clear.

.... of course this time he avoided his GW2 pep talk of last Sep as that would look him like an even bigger fool.

So looking upon these older posts, the man is just another brain dead WoW hater.

I would take the word on stock from some "brain dead WoW hater" who works as a financial analyst over some "blizzard fanboy ass kissing zelot" I would love to hear your financial analyst on the stock. I would expect wow to see a decline like all other mmos.

[BenBos]

I would take the word on stock from some "brain dead WoW hater" who works as a financial analyst over some "blizzard fanboy ass kissing zelot" I would love to hear your financial analyst on the stock. I would expect wow to see a decline like all other mmos.

So you would take his words ?

Well here they are :

QUOTE: sorry, but after Guild Wars 2 and The old republic now being free to play... it seems dumb to justify 15 dollars a month for WOW

Exactly, the 15$ a month is why I don't play WoW anymore and why I quit SWOR back then. I give myself a 5$ or less allowance in GW2, so far so good.

You should really play the game... or just get your facts right. GW2 Rid this game of many pointless timesinks, many of which are still found in wow (Flights, crafting, travel, grinding) so don't give me that crap about spending CRAZY amounts of time playing to offset the cost of Gems... It's just not true. It's extremely balanced, especially given it's young age.

GW2. WoW is a crappy old outdated game with nothing but grind. It also bleeds massively now.

GW2 moves forward in game designing, WoW moves backwards.

I have a mitigated opinion when it comes to GW2 vs WoW, I like both games and all... But for PvP, I hate to say this on a Blizzard forum but Guild Wars 2 is just plain better.

Through my research, I never read a single comment from a player who had re-found his love for the game, and/or believes the game is superior to Guild Wars 2. Most players think the expansion is pretty good, but it is my understanding that players who have renewed their expired subscriptions, mostly just want to try out the game, and they won't be playing it for a longer period---

UNQUOTE.

------

Clearly the words of a serious stock broker (he publishes them - of course - last Sep).

Go ahead and try to defend that crap.
Lots of success.

Now here comes the best part: NCSoft shares TANKED.... despite this article ... now show me where that guy gained credibility somewhere...

This kind of guys I eat between my sandwich any time.

[BrerBear]

I would take the word on stock from some "brain dead WoW hater" who works as a financial analyst over some "blizzard fanboy ass kissing zelot" I would love to hear your financial analyst on the stock. I would expect wow to see a decline like all other mmos.

He's an MBA student, not a financial analyst.

[But I Hate You All]

So you would take his words ?

Well here they are :

QUOTE: sorry, but after Guild Wars 2 and The old republic now being free to play... it seems dumb to justify 15 dollars a month for WOW

Exactly, the 15$ a month is why I don't play WoW anymore and why I quit SWOR back then. I give myself a 5$ or less allowance in GW2, so far so good.

You should really play the game... or just get your facts right. GW2 Rid this game of many pointless timesinks, many of which are still found in wow (Flights, crafting, travel, grinding) so don't give me that crap about spending CRAZY amounts of time playing to offset the cost of Gems... It's just not true. It's extremely balanced, especially given it's young age.

GW2. WoW is a crappy old outdated game with nothing but grind. It also bleeds massively now.

GW2 moves forward in game designing, WoW moves backwards.

I have a mitigated opinion when it comes to GW2 vs WoW, I like both games and all... But for PvP, I hate to say this on a Blizzard forum but Guild Wars 2 is just plain better.

Through my research, I never read a single comment from a player who had re-found his love for the game, and/or believes the game is superior to Guild Wars 2. Most players think the expansion is pretty good, but it is my understanding that players who have renewed their expired subscriptions, mostly just want to try out the game, and they won't be playing it for a longer period---

UNQUOTE.

------

Clearly the words of a serious stock broker (he publishes them - of course - last Sep).

Go ahead and try to defend that crap.
Lots of success.

I am talking about the fact he said the game will keep declining. If you read it he said First of all, I like to start off with a quote from a PCgamer: and Below are a few quotes from the forums of Battle.net, Anandtech.com, Pcgamer and mmorpg.com:

Than him Through my research, I never read a single comment from a player who had re-found his love for the game, and/or believes the game is superior to Guild Wars 2. Most players think the expansion is pretty good, but it is my understanding that players who have renewed their expired subscriptions, mostly just want to try out the game, and they won't be playing it for a longer period.




---------- Post added 2013-02-02 at 12:40 AM ----------

He's an MBA student, not a financial analyst.

Well he has some credibility than vs a random person on the internet.

[BenBos]

Zero credibility after such an article and ZERO chance to succeed as a student. That's pretty clear. ... Or so we might think.

But let's have the fact here: this is a kind of reality because he was able to publish that crap (and lies about 30-50% subs losses in the past) on a financial site...

That's how it goes these days on this crappy society game with ... REAL money of ours... THAT is the sad part really.

[But I Hate You All]

Zero credibility after such an article and ZERO chance to succeed as a student. That's pretty clear.

And yet you lack the ability to to see where he Quoted some one else and say its his words. I would say he has a tad more credibility than you.

[BenBos]

I am not lacking anything. I just cut and paset some words he used in his article (the quotes he made alone were an insult to anyone with a brain).

http://seekingalpha.com/article/9158...-earnings-down

The sad fact is not that he concluded with:

..."Over the coming years, I expect an increasing amount of World of Warcraft players to cancel their subscriptions. Why pay money for an old game when you can play a superior game (Guild Wars 2) for free..."

But continued to lie in his answers (talking about ... yêp 8 million subs in 2012...) to baffled readers...in the Q&A part...

Of course this was september 2012. Now he looks ridiculous. As should be.

No problem ... I can go on quoting him. That guy is an idiot.

[But I Hate You All]

Zero credibility after such an article and ZERO chance to succeed as a student. That's pretty clear. ... Or so we might think.

But let's have the fact here: this is a kind of reality because he was able to publish that crap (and lies about 30-50% subs losses in the past) on a financial site...

That's how it goes these days on this crappy society game with ... REAL money of ours... THAT is the sad part really.

Lets look at this again

First of all, I like to start off with a quote from a PCgamer:

For returnees, the additions to the game and new content are very enjoyable, but it is fundamentally still World of Warcraft with a few bits strapped onto it rather than a whole new game. If you're coming back from a more recent MMO, things like the stodgy combat are going to feel far older than you remember, and the basic mechanics and philosophies remain the same. Pandaria as a place is firmly a vacation for your character rather than a Cataclysm style reinvention of their world, and you're only going to avoid the old grind for so long before it's back to business as usual in the endgame.

If you remember the game fondly enough to have read this far, it's worth returning for a month or two to check it out. You're unlikely to stick around much longer though, unless you really get back into the social side, or the raids and next chapters of Pandaria's story prove incredibly compelling.

But that was just a quote from one reviewer. What about the players? Below are a few quotes from the forums of Battle.net, Anandtech.com, Pcgamer and mmorpg.com:

Im sorry, but after Guild Wars 2 and The old republic now being free to play... it seems dumb to justify 15 dollars a month for WOW

Exactly, the 15$ a month is why I don't play WoW anymore and why I quit SWOR back then. I give myself a 5$ or less allowance in GW2, so far so good.

You should really play the game... or just get your facts right. GW2 Rid this game of many pointless timesinks, many of which are still found in wow (Flights, crafting, travel, grinding) so don't give me that crap about spending CRAZY amounts of time playing to offset the cost of Gems... It's just not true. It's extremely balanced, especially given it's young age.

GW2. WoW is a crappy old outdated game with nothing but grind. It also bleeds massively now.

GW2 moves forward in game designing, WoW moves backwards.

I have a mitigated opinion when it comes to GW2 vs WoW, I like both games and all... But for PvP, I hate to say this on a Blizzard forum but Guild Wars 2 is just plain better.

^ him Quoting others

---------- Post added 2013-02-02 at 12:56 AM ----------

I am not lacking anything. I just cut and past some words he used in his article (the quotes he made alone were an insult to anyone with a brain).

No the Quotes were other peoples options. It would insult anyone who was a braindead blizzard drone who thinks everything is perfect and hopeful and no one else can have a option unless its Pro Blizzard.

[Chrysia]

No the Quotes were other peoples options. It would insult anyone who was a braindead blizzard drone who thinks everything is perfect and hopeful and no one else can have a option unless its Pro Blizzard.

The problem is an opinion is not sufficient evidence to assume a drop in ATVI stock or to assume a drop in subs.

Statistically, we only know subs rose after the release of MoP. We won't get numbers again until later this week.

[Rhaktor]

ITT uninformed people making comments on finance that has nothing to do with them and will not affect the game that they play/hate for the foreseeable future.

[Arbs]

Do you really need to start insulting people because he points out where the author of the article is wrong and biased?

Grow up!

I'm sure the forums mods will take care of it.

[Pann]

Do you really need to start insulting people because he points out where the author of the article is wrong and biased?

Grow up!

Please give us your detailed analysis on why the author is wrong. Do you think that WOW will gain subscribers over the next couple of years or will they continue to decline? If you believe, and others, that believe the author is so wrong then I suggest you ignore his advice and invest in ATVI and in a couple of years not only will you have the satisfaction proving him wrong you will also have made a profit.