Activision-Blizzard a declining stock? How it effects WoW?

[Slowpoke is a Gamer]

A 2 million player drop would affect WoW. And we would likely see another radical design shift going from 5.2-5.3 and beyond.

[Vladar]

We will see February 7th when Activision release 4th quarter results. If Xfire is any indication, WOW is in for a major drop in the number of subs.

[Mawnix]

We will see February 7th when Activision release 4th quarter results. If Xfire is any indication, WOW is in for a major drop in the number of subs.

What are you talking about?

[MikeyD]

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1147...e?source=yahoo

Reading this article, how does the guy come up with what looks like 6 million subs currently playing WoW?

If thats the case, Blizz better right the ship because after the final patch for MoP, you're looking at 1 maybe 2 million subs until launch of the next expansion.

Edit:

Misread the graph, looks like its just this guys own conclusions. Apparently current subs are at 8 mil.

I love the Wow addicts that obsess over these things and become terribly upset when any news about their beloved addiction isn't full of love and hope.

This article, however, was aborted as soon as I see this clown type "Skylander's". This guy isn't a market analyst, and has no real clue what is going to happen with subscriber counts. But, there are people out there who can accurately make projections and to the uneducated it appears as "guesses".

MoP numbers are going to take a major nosedive this year. Here are just a few of the reasons:

• MMO-Burnout. At some point the grind just takes its toll.
• Weather - spring is upon us, those wasting time playing in the winter might want a break.
• MoP quality. Though some love it, a sampling of message boards indicates there is a fair amount of players disenchanted with the game.
• Other games. Yes, I know this is unthinkable, but players do move on to play other games.
• Private servers. Vanilla private servers exist and as more and more players discovers the scene, they'll opt out of a monthly sub. Some of these servers have been around for years and even mighty Blizzard can't seem to get them shut down.

[Fagatronics]

What are you talking about?

Feb 7 is Activision-Blizzards 4th quarter review of 2012. According to Xfire, activity has dropped significantly in recent months. (But it is unclear how accurate Xfire is.)

[MikeyD]

Feb 7 is Activision-Blizzards 4th quarter review of 2012. According to Xfire, activity has dropped significantly in recent months. (But it is unclear how accurate Xfire is.)

The addicts will dismiss Xfire without hesitation and any trends indicated by that won't matter unless the statistics come from their only one true God, Blizzard.

Praise Blizzard.

Amen.

[Pann]

I love the Wow addicts that obsess over these things and become terribly upset when any news about their beloved addiction isn't full of love and hope.

This article, however, was aborted as soon as I see this clown type "Skylander's". This guy isn't a market analyst, and has no real clue what is going to happen with subscriber counts. But, there are people out there who can accurately make projections and to the uneducated it appears as "guesses".

MoP numbers are going to take a major nosedive this year. Here are just a few of the reasons:

• MMO-Burnout. At some point the grind just takes its toll.
• Weather - spring is upon us, those wasting time playing in the winter might want a break.
• MoP quality. Though some love it, a sampling of message boards indicates there is a fair amount of players disenchanted with the game.
• Other games. Yes, I know this is unthinkable, but players do move on to play other games.
• Private servers. Vanilla private servers exist and as more and more players discovers the scene, they'll opt out of a monthly sub. Some of these servers have been around for years and even mighty Blizzard can't seem to get them shut down.

What is the problem with mentioning Skylander's and why does it make him a clown? The article is about the future of Activision Blizzard and it is one of their major franchises surely the health of the franchise has impact on the profitability of the company?

Feb 7 is Activision-Blizzards 4th quarter review of 2012. According to Xfire, activity has dropped significantly in recent months. (But it is unclear how accurate Xfire is.)

Arrgghhh!!!! Nooooooo!!! You've fallen into the trap! Now you are going to be told over and over that Xfire is inaccurate and no-one uses it.

[Faroth]

He is purple?

Your lack of knowledge regarding classic insults, and more importantly Bugs Bunny, disappoints me.

---------- Post added 2013-01-31 at 10:54 PM ----------

The addicts will dismiss Xfire without hesitation and any trends indicated by that won't matter unless the statistics come from their only one true God, Blizzard.

Praise Blizzard.

Amen.

And if Blizzard's numbers don't reflect XFire then Blizzard is lying and it's a conspiracy to keep people believing they are doing well, amiright?

[Celista]

A 2 million player drop would affect WoW. And we would likely see another radical design shift going from 5.2-5.3 and beyond.

If there really was a 2 million player drop last quarter then someone's getting fired.

Fairly unlikely though...MoP release and all. I'm not sure how they calculate subs either; if it's sub numbers at the close of the quarter it will likely be lower than the average amount of subs over the entirety of the quarter.

[Pann]

Your lack of knowledge regarding classic insults, and more importantly Bugs Bunny, disappoints me.

Personally I find it more disappointing that certain members of this forum have to resort to insults, classic or otherwise whenever they see anything they perceive as negative towards Blizzard or WOW.

And if Blizzard's numbers don't reflect XFire then Blizzard is lying and it's a conspiracy to keep people believing they are doing well, amiright?

Considering past quarterly subscriber numbers have mirrored Xfire trends this should not be an issue, however if this quarter they do not it simply means that Xfire is not accurate as it was in the past.

[kunah]

Whether or not you agree. Would you buy in this stock? 8 yrs ago yes. Now, idk. Maybe for Titan?

[Mawnix]

Feb 7 is Activision-Blizzards 4th quarter review of 2012. According to Xfire, activity has dropped significantly in recent months. (But it is unclear how accurate Xfire is.)

I know it's the 7th I meant more-so the Xfire aspect.

[BenBos]

I know it's the 7th I meant more-so the Xfire aspect.

http://www.warcraftrealms.com/weekly...hp?serverid=-1

... shows an INCREASE of 10% over the last year (Dec/Dec) and an increase of 30% over June 2012...

Those are in game tools (helas is the sample a little small), but the general trend after the summer has been UPWARDS.

Also: author on that other site ... is a reknown Blizzard hater from previous posts. (he spreads these posts for years and he always was proven wrong).

He "predicted" WOW would be at 9 million subscriptions before the year ended 2012.

We will know how far off he is already by that "prediction" but I rather feel confident with the graph above.

I would go with 10M+ sign, where + means anything from 1 to 200.000.

[Deleted]

I think he nailed the major trends well. Blizzard needs Titan to be a big hit or ATVI will tank. WoW is on it's way out, it's clear Blizzard is just milking it with minimal effort until they get to Titan. Diablo 3 was good one-off sales, but failed to produce the microtransaction money milking Blizzard was hoping for, and given how fast interest in it died, an xpac is likely not going to sell incredibly well. SC2 xpac will sell, as will next WoW xpac, but overall Blizzard's revenue sources are coming to the end of their life cycles and they need something new and big to maintain their value.

[Pann]

http://www.warcraftrealms.com/weekly...hp?serverid=-1

... shows an INCREASE of 10% over the last year (Dec/Dec) and an increase of 30% over June 2012...

Those are in game tools (helas is the sample a little small), but the general trend after the summer has been UPWARDS.

Also: author on that other site ... is a reknown Blizzard hater from previous posts. (he spreads these posts for years and he always was proven wrong).

He "predicted" WOW would be at 9 million subscriptions before the year ended 2012.

We will know how far off he is already by that "prediction" but I rather feel confident with the graph above.

I would go with 10M+ sign, where + means anything from 1 to 200.000.

It has been discussed time and time again that Warcraft realms and Xfire are only good at predicting short term trends and cannot be used over a long period of time.

I had not heard of the author before but looking at the 42 articles he has listed on this site he has only written three about Activision Blizzard, hardly a renowned Blizzard hater. None of his articles even hint at hating Blizzard or WOW, they merely mention that he believes that WOW will decline in subscriber numbers over the years, which I think is a reasonable assumption unless Blizzard do something drastic to increase subs.

Barring the fact that none of his articles make this prediction (rather they quote the actual figures that Blizzard released), WOW did go down to 9 million subscribers prior to the release of MOP so his prediction was correct. Also, what if the quarterly results show that WOW dropped down to pre-MOP levels again what will you then use to dismiss his points?

[Slowpoke is a Gamer]

The addicts will dismiss Xfire without hesitation and any trends indicated by that won't matter unless the statistics come from their only one true God, Blizzard.

Praise Blizzard.

Amen.

I have a hard time believing any 3rd party sources when WoWCensus reports Dwarf Warlock is the most played thing in the game.

---------- Post added 2013-01-31 at 06:34 PM ----------

I think he nailed the major trends well. Blizzard needs Titan to be a big hit or ATVI will tank. WoW is on it's way out, it's clear Blizzard is just milking it with minimal effort until they get to Titan. Diablo 3 was good one-off sales, but failed to produce the microtransaction money milking Blizzard was hoping for, and given how fast interest in it died, an xpac is likely not going to sell incredibly well. SC2 xpac will sell, as will next WoW xpac, but overall Blizzard's revenue sources are coming to the end of their life cycles and they need something new and big to maintain their value.

Minimal effort on WoW.

*Transmog
*Void Storage
*Item Upgrades
*Challenge Modes
*New Friendship System
*Brawler's Guild
*New Class
*New neutral race system

And you say they're just letting WoW coast into oblivion?

[Yig]

WoW is on it's way out, it's clear Blizzard is just milking it with minimal effort until they get to Titan.

[passive aggressive]Yes, because expanding options outside of nothing but a couple of raids and some 5 mans every expansion is minimizing effort.

Because making giant raids with more turns and corners in a dungeon takes more developer time, imagination, and resources than actually creating new things to do in this game and new infrastructure in the programming to realize it. [/passive aggressive]

You blind Blizzard bashers are pathetic with the bold assertions you make. You make up whatever sounds good and whatever matches your arbitrary opinions of what are ultimately an issue of aesthetics while you hide behind and pretend it has to do with noble concepts like effort and creativity while you cast a sinister air of "selling out" on anything that clashes with your pet issue.

[shokter]

He is purple?

Maroon. It's what Bugs Bunny calls those he deems worthy of derision. If more people used the word that way the world would be a better place. Also more rabbits should dress as sexy girl bunnies to trick hunters.

[Mawnix]

I love the Wow addicts that obsess over these things and become terribly upset when any news about their beloved addiction isn't full of love and hope.

This article, however, was aborted as soon as I see this clown type "Skylander's". This guy isn't a market analyst, and has no real clue what is going to happen with subscriber counts. But, there are people out there who can accurately make projections and to the uneducated it appears as "guesses".

MoP numbers are going to take a major nosedive this year. Here are just a few of the reasons:

• MMO-Burnout. At some point the grind just takes its toll.
• Weather - spring is upon us, those wasting time playing in the winter might want a break.
• MoP quality. Though some love it, a sampling of message boards indicates there is a fair amount of players disenchanted with the game.
• Other games. Yes, I know this is unthinkable, but players do move on to play other games.
• Private servers. Vanilla private servers exist and as more and more players discovers the scene, they'll opt out of a monthly sub. Some of these servers have been around for years and even mighty Blizzard can't seem to get them shut down.

I absolutely love how your only argument in every thread you post in is that if someone likes WoW, they're addicted.

[BenBos]

It has been discussed time and time again that Warcraft realms and Xfire are only good at predicting short term trends and cannot be used over a long period of time.

I had not heard of the author before but looking at the 42 articles he has listed on this site he has only written three about Activision Blizzard, hardly a renowned Blizzard hater. None of his articles even hint at hating Blizzard or WOW, they merely mention that he believes that WOW will decline in subscriber numbers over the years, which I think is a reasonable assumption unless Blizzard do something drastic to increase subs.

Barring the fact that none of his articles make this prediction (rather they quote the actual figures that Blizzard released), WOW did go down to 9 million subscribers prior to the release of MOP so his prediction was correct. Also, what if the quarterly results show that WOW dropped down to pre-MOP levels again what will you then use to dismiss his points?

Rubbish, pure and utter rubbish.

FIRST: when Wacraft realms shows a downward trend it is a good tool. When warcraft realms shows an upward trend it is false. LAUGHS/

Actually what happens in these grahs from year to year activity is that the quarterly figures match a trend in Warcraft Realms pretty good. On a year to year basis WOW is in an upward trend CLEARLY.

SECOND: THE ONLY reason why there were 9.1 million subs by June 2012 was the launch of a 10.000.000 selling blockbuster within the Blizzard stable D3. THAT can be seen too on Warcraft Realms.

THIRD: In EVERY post this dude posted about Activision Blizzard he posted a very ngative picture that simply didn't hold true until this very date.

Examples: Previously he wrote that ... GW2 was the NEW big thing that would dethrone WOW: it was so called better and was far more attractive thanWOW: of course this "prediction" alone was already a BIG joke of this "analist" in his previous colum.

He actually LIED about WOW sub numbers going down, he never made the subtle analysis that WOW actually stablised BEFORE DEC 2011 only to see a sudden dip with the launch of ... (surprise) another 10.000.000 Blizzard seller in May/june 2012.

Since then the subs climbed and Warcraft Realms show a clear increase.

All swapped under the doormat, all in order to talk the negative way.

He IGNORED GW2 this time (of course because he would have made a fool of himself). HE IGNORED the simple fact a Diablo 3 game launched from the same maker as WOW which obviously had a short burst impact on that launch. HE IGNORED the climb after MOP's launch in his TEXT. and of course he makes a graph of which simply is 60% "future prediction". (meaning wet thumb analysis).

---

But mostly he ignored the fact that 2013 is NOT 2012, meaning : the 2 biggest WOW killer launchers are WAY behind us ... and WOW having a bigger activity than in Dec 2011 ...

THAT's something to talk about. The 2 latest most hyped up WOW killers were launched in 2012 and ... went free to play (no subs) and the situation as of now is that WOW is actually on the same number of subs (if not more) than BEFORE these 2 overhyped launches.

So 2013 what's next ? Are there even more Lores available ? Then he talks down on SC2 (selling a "mere" 6 million copies) . WTF: That's 2 times his beloved GW2 game; He talks down on Diablo 3 (that's 4 times his beloved GW2 game) without having ANY clue about that player revenue through the AH. He talks down about anything with an Activision Blizzard name tag on it really.

Bungie games ? Apparently he never even heard of them...