Subscription predictions for next quarter!

[Usako]

I have to say, I expect some loss. Annual Passes for the most part have ended for many people, and the newness of MoP has faded. At least it has for me :P

[Goldfingaz]

The first hit for 12m subs was on the cusp of 2009, between patch 3.0.3 and 3.0.8 (both WotLK prep patches), and then hit 12m again around October 2010, patch 4.0.1, the Cataclysm prep patch.

Pretty sure that made WotLK the best expansion ever. However, to those that think that subs are going to drop to 9m, the last time that happened was mid-2007: Patch 2.1.0 (the Black Temple) had only been out for a month.

Was WoW dead during 2.1.0?

There is a vast difference between an incline to 9m and a decline to 9m i'm afraid.

[Galaddriel]

9 million by Blizzard (which actually means 5.5 million without lies).

Based on http://wow.realmpop.com/

EU: 2,921,261 Characters from level 86-90 (many of them alts, and some of them already unsubbed)
US: 2,663,053 Characters from level 86-90 (many of them alts, and some of them already unsubbed)

That site counts every character ever made. It's ridiculous to use for sub numbers.

[Goldfingaz]

That site counts every character ever made. It's ridiculous to use for sub numbers.

It only counts active characters. (Inactive characters do not show up on the armory [after a certain amount of time], nor do characters below a certain level, thus they aren't included)

However, it simply is silly to use realmpop as information on sub numbers due to tons of players having multiple alts.

[BenBos]

Minus: alts, unsubbed, you could also add multiboxers here if you are thinking about people as numbers. Also many SoR users, 10 days MoP free trials...
Plus: people who didn't reach lvl 86 yet

Also, there is no WoW subscription fee in China.

I think it's kinda balanced.

The subscriptions in China work otherwise: very much like your cell phone contracts: you pay by the minute/hour.

China has active subscriptions counted as those who logged in effectively with paid cards during the last 30 days and paid to play for that time.

It is their "state controlled" default system of playing games: consoles are even FORBIDDEN in China (did you know that one ?)...

So your western figures (5.5 million active) indeed proved the approx. known figure of 50% western and 50% Asian players (as Korea also uses a mixed system).

Besides 5 million subs only would not cover the yearly revenue from Blizzard that has been hovering around 1.2 billion and 1.4 billion dollars over the last 3 years... (depending on launched box sales).


But I come back to the CORE of this discussion: there are NO LONGER subscription based games > 500K bracket because they almost ALL went free to play.

So WOW won the battle of the subscriptions for 8 years in a row.


Why discuss a game with 10 million subscriptions when the rest stands at ... 0.000.000 subs...

That change to FREE to play MMO thingies is far more important for subscriptions than a single QQ or whine about in game content.

In game things have hardly ANY impact on people unsubscribing.

You need to look at the BIG picture of this industry (and paid subscriptions) and there WOW won the battle cum laude, because after 8 years WOW stood at 10 + M (on its birth day) while the rest is down the lane of free to play things...

[Goldfingaz]

The subscriptions in China work otherwise: very much like your cell phone contracts: you pay by the minute/hour.

China has active subscriptions counted as those who logged in effectively with paid cards during the last 30 days and paid to play for that time.

So your western figures (5.5 million active) indeed proved the approx. known figure of 50% western and 50% Asian players (as Korea also uses a mixed system).

Besides 5 million subs only would not cover the yearly revenue from Blizzard that has been hovering around 1.2 billion and 1.4 billion dollars over the last 3 years... (depending on launched box sales).


But I come back to the CORE of this discussion: there are NO LONGER subscription based games > 500K bracket because they almost ALL went free to play.

So WOW won the battle of the subscriptions for 8 years in a row.


Why discuss a game with 10 million subscriptions when the rest stands at ... 0.000.000 subs...

That change to FREE to play MMO thingies is far more important for subscriptions than a single QQ or whine about in game content.

Quit making this into a game vs game thread, how have you not been infracted for derailing the thread already?

[Firebert]

There is a vast difference between an incline to 9m and a decline to 9m i'm afraid.

People are still saying that "WoW is dead at X million subscribers", whether it's an incline or decline.

[Goldfingaz]

But the post didn't say that they needed more instant-spells.
Even the opposite: He said that they wanted casted spells to be important and the to-go spell.


What does that have to say about the amount of unbalance?

Are you really using class-representation to argue about balance?
Let's have the numbers from all brackets:
Holy Paladin - 5.7k
Death Knight - 5k
Mage - 5.7k

Balance in PvP is this: That your paladin has roughly the same chance and effort in getting 2k as your shaman, mage or any other class.

Can you not read? (Keep in mind, you can't use class rep in all brackets because Blizzard balances around 3s, which is where you should be taking your sample numbers from)

May 2012, Warrior make up 269 (4%) of the players above 2k rating, where a rogue had 896 (14%) of the top 2k players during a season in cataclysm, which means there is a difference of 627.

Or at any bracket:
Rogue: 5345 (12%)
Warrior: 3027 (7%)
Difference of 2318

Currently:
Warrior: 4614 (17%)
Rogue: 794 (3%)
Difference of 3820

Again, if this doesn't show the sheer imbalance of PvP right now to you, then you're simply blind and there's no point wasting time on you.

People are still saying that "WoW is dead at X million subscribers", whether it's an incline or decline.

People saying a game is dead while it's on a constant incline are simply not worth speaking to, and you shouldn't try to use their misguided arguments to further strengthen your own.

[Gratlim]

I expect a drop due to pvp. Short list:
- Bots
- Oqueue premade
- Warriors
- Low level fu**ed up with OP priests
- wintrading
- rbg exploit
- no honor pvp weapon while introducing pvp power

PVE is top notch though
- but drawback: too many dailies

I say -600k

[Marooned]

The first hit for 12m subs was on the cusp of 2009, between patch 3.0.3 and 3.0.8 (both WotLK prep patches), and then hit 12m again around October 2010, patch 4.0.1, the Cataclysm prep patch.

Pretty sure that made WotLK the best expansion ever. However, to those that think that subs are going to drop to 9m, the last time that happened was mid-2007: Patch 2.1.0 (the Black Temple) had only been out for a month.

Was WoW dead during 2.1.0?

No the second 12m hit was due to WotlK release in China-Asia (Its Sep 2010, and numbers went up on next report right around after Sep), if things were good in US/EU they would not stop reporting US numbers.

[BenBos]

Quit making this into a game vs game thread, how have you not been infracted for derailing the thread already?

What an XXXX you are if you want to discuss the subscription numbers of a singular game WITHOUT looking at the industry as such which for 99% went free to play.

You failed to prove ANY point except being frustrated that you are discussing a 10 million subscription based game in what is really a FREE to PLAY market these days.

Blizzard won that battle in an industry that was standard subscription based and now turned unprofitable without going free to play....

which makes subs discussions totally meaningless these days.

[Goldfingaz]

What an XXXX you are if you want to discuss the subscription numbers of a singular game WITHOUT looking at the industry as such which for 99% went free to play.

You failed to prove ANY point except being frustrated that you are discussing a 10 million subscription based game in what is really a FREE to PLAY market these days.

Blizzard won that battle in an industry that was standard subscription based and now turned unprofitable without going free to play....

which makes subs discussions totally meaningless these days.

Again, this isn't game vs game so give it up, so we can continue our discussion on our subscription predictions.

[But I Hate You All]

Really? We hardly have those people on this forum.
What we do have are people that are allergic to bullshit.

That's bullshit For every SLIGHT and MILD criticism you may have against the game a legion of people will come and tell you why you are wrong.

[Pebrocks The Warlock]

That's bullshit For every SLIGHT and MILD criticism you may have against the game a legion of people will come and tell you why you are wrong.

Yet it's never slight and mild criticism, stop lying. It's people trying to push their opinions on people and pass them off as fact.

[Pann]

Yet it's never slight and mild criticism, stop lying. It's people trying to push their opinions on people and pass them off as fact.

Next you'll be telling us that irony is women's work!

[But I Hate You All]

Wrong, I want WoW to be successful and thus I like high subscription numbers. If numbers drop, Blizzard has less money, less money means a decrease of quality.

When sub numbers dropped they reported record profit

---------- Post added 2013-02-03 at 10:37 AM ----------

The first hit for 12m subs was on the cusp of 2009, between patch 3.0.3 and 3.0.8 (both WotLK prep patches), and then hit 12m again around October 2010, patch 4.0.1, the Cataclysm prep patch.

Pretty sure that made WotLK the best expansion ever. However, to those that think that subs are going to drop to 9m, the last time that happened was mid-2007: Patch 2.1.0 (the Black Temple) had only been out for a month.

Was WoW dead during 2.1.0?

That is a fan made graph correct?

[Firebert]

That is a fan made graph correct?

http://mmodata.blogspot.co.uk/

Fan-made and slow to update, yes, but it's useful to show people that the downward trend, even by an overestimated amount, isn't all that bad.

[Pann]

That is a fan made graph correct?

Other than it does not reflect the loss in subs when WOW had licensing problems was unavailable before switching to Netease in China and it does not have the last two quarter's numbers. yep it is pretty much spot on.

[But I Hate You All]

Quit making this into a game vs game thread, how have you not been infracted for derailing the thread already?

He seems to be able to do what he wants

---------- Post added 2013-02-03 at 10:43 AM ----------

Yet it's never slight and mild criticism, stop lying. It's people trying to push their opinions on people and pass them off as fact.

Bullshit. The legion of fanbois sure are sensitive about ANYcriticism

[BenBos]

Again, this isn't game vs game so give it up, so we can continue our discussion on our subscription predictions.

Wrong, this is an INDUSTRY discussion about how WOW subscriptions are doing in what has turned to into a FREE to play industry for 99% of the cases.

As such it is WRONG you continue to AVOID the fact that the BIGGEST subscription based Fantasy games turned into a FREE to play model over the last 2 years ...


Now why would anyone want to discuss 9.5M, 10M, 10.5 M subscription numbers IF the rest of the MMO's ALREADY abondened their paid subscriptions in the first place ?

---> To see that WOW would "decline"? How could they, they are the ONLY ones left with above 400K subs ???



THESE discussions would be meaningful if you'd be in a position of 2010 ... where everything as an AAA MMORPG still had subscriptions.

But apparently you and a LOT of others are still in their winter sleep.

----

Here: I show you the truth...

http://mmodata.blogspot.be/

Now look at that UPDATE date: AUGUST 29 ... 2012.

Not one single update anymore.

the reason is simple: subscriptions are gone in 95% of the cases,

If anything WOW going from 12M to 10M had MUCH more to do with the changing industry which went from sub to Free to P(l)AY.