Amber Shaper 10N Pecking Order - is it random?

[schwarzkopf]

Everything I've read shows that the pecking order for reshape life is random, however in our latest attempt after 16 wipes - it picked neither of the two mages in the party. Yes - I know RNG, but on top of that - it only picked our warlock once - and that was after the other dps had been picked and converted.

It seems very likely there is a pattern - but everyone says it is random.

Again - I understand RNG (being 0 for 50 on Sha weapon drops), but the chances of this being a random event are about 1% or so (based upon the chances of us not being picked randomly 16 times in a row).

PS: I am referring of course to Phase 2 here.

[DieFichte]

It seems very likely there is a pattern - but everyone says it is random.

Again - I understand RNG (being 0 for 50 on Sha weapon drops), but the chances of this being a random event are about 1% or so (based upon the chances of us not being picked randomly 16 times in a row).

PS: I am referring of course to Phase 2 here.

You know how many people killed 10n Amber Shaper? Guess you could be the 1%.

But I can't really tell if it's random or not, because we one shot it in 10m everytime and 25 isn't really comparable.

[Kisho]

There might be... I do generally see the same names popping up in the constructs. That said, it could just be confirmation bias, so honestly it's something that would need to be tracked carefully across many weeks before you can discern a pattern. For example, I know for a fact that the Mage in my raid has been transformed at least once.

Now that said, I've just remembered a separate, but perhaps similar phenomenon... Whereby for 'random' targeted abilities, it's actually not all that random within the same raid reset. I remember this from Teron Gorefiend, which is actually the spiritual predecessor to Un'sok, with the being marked for death and transforming, then having to deal with a mechanic that can wipe the raid if not properly dealt with.

Basically, within the same night of wipes on a boss, you can see a pattern emerge where the boss tends to prefer the same people for the big fight-defining ability. I remember back during Gorefiend wipes we'd always see a Warlock of ours get transformed, which didn't help because she sucked at dealing with the constructs. =/ I'd also rarely, if ever see myself get transformed as the raid leader (which led to a prior theory of mine where raid leaders usually didn't get targeted for these abiltiies, so they can focus on actually leading the raid; no idea if that's true or not, but it would be nice! :P), so there could've been something there.

Then when we came back the next night after a soft reset of the instance, new people would be preferred.

Again, it could just be confirmation bias, but if this mechanic is a Real Thing then this could be what you're seeing on Un'sok.

[Deleted]

Some stuff about amber shaper do not seem random. For example the debuff. I get it the first application like 80% of the time, and like half of the rest of them. I basically have all my dmg reduction cds on cd all the time as well as getting that monk stuff nearly every try xD I have been a construct... one time.
I might just be unlucky about the construct and lucky about the debuff (that I have a shit ton of cd's). o.o
It's just a bit wierd

[bals]

last night we had one of our healers get it 3x in a row. really sucked
completely random

[Kurzior]

Even if it appears to not be random to your group, the real question is does it matter? As long as you're 3 healing, you shouldn't be gibbed by losing a healer at a bad time. The only other way for this to really affect your kill is if someone gets picked who doesn't handle the mechanic correctly. At that point, its down to making sure your whole raid is able to handle fight mechanics correctly, not an issue of RNG.

For what it's worth, I've seen every member of our raid get reshaped over our past 2 or 3 kills, so it seems pretty random to me.

[Pearsyn]

I find that if you bring someone to Amber-Shaper Un'sok who has never done the fight/been the construct before there is an 80% chance that they will be chosen to be transformed and more than likely miss the Monstrosity Interrupt making your raid grumble.

It is random, and with random sometimes you might think there is a pattern but unfortunately there is not. There is a way to guarantee a tank getting the 'first' one, but it just involves the off tank hiding behind a pillar until the main tank gets xformed.

Hope that helps

[weakdots]

i have over 90 attempts between heroic and normal mode, killed it x times on normal (dont remember) and 2x's on heroic. Ive only been reshaped in p2 4 times in all those attempts. Im a warlock, the group im in says the warlock they had before me never got reshaped either.

i think it has something to do with threat, in p2 i never touch the monstrosity until its down to 20%, im always killing ambers and breaking out the person in the construct. our boomkin,rogue,hunter, and healers are always getting reshaped in p2. the boomkin rogue and hunter are also focusing the monstrosity and most likely highest on threat behind the tanks.

[ThePants999]

I went 30 straight LFR kills without a loot drop. If the chances of loot really are 15%, the chances of that run of bad luck for me were 0.76%. Low probabilities do happen ;-)

[Shaley]

It's random, but I personally went weeks without being picked on 10 man. Rogue, here.

[Static Transit]

It is completely random. On my hunter, I basically never get picked for it (which is just fine really, as I'm on duty for killing the ambers). This week, I got picked during phase 2 AND I was the first one to be picked in the last phase. RNG is RNG.