Activision Blizzard stocks UP 11.19 % in ONE day after the earning calls.

[Pann]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't Blizz's subs jump like 1 million shortly after the release of MoP?

Yes they did and it is reasonable to think that China saw similar gains yet after a couple of months there was an overall loss of 400k.

[Jazara]

Yes they did and it is reasonable to think that China saw similar gains yet after a couple of months there was an overall loss of 400k.

...and, with the release of a content patch the subs rise...in some circles this is called a "trend".

[mvaliz]

Having 9.6 million paying subs while the rest of the MMORPG industry turned (mostly) F2P and you have this lucrative market to you alone.

It is a question of market posession really.

...then tell me, why DIDN'T the stocks jump up 11.19% or close to that at any single time durring Cata's time? Or Wrath - when the subs were at their highest? Right now there's WAY more competition against WoW than durring any of those expansions - and back then they had HIGHER subs!

You seriously think that WoW reporting a 400+ K sub LOSS is what bumped up those?

[Azrile]

No it won't. What is there to attract new customers or existing ones back? If WOW can't gain subs over Christmas with a content patch and the launch of an expansion in China it is not going to do it it with 5.2.

I do see the trend and it is a slow decline in subs.

They DID gain subscribers. WOW was down to 9.1M subscribers during Cata, now it is at 9.6M WOW will probably never see 11M again, but if they keep up with content patches and the next expansion comes faster than 9 months after the last 5.x patch.. then I doubt it will go below 9.1 either.

But really, why can´t we for once factor in other MMOs and how amazing it is that a game that charges $15 per month can maintain subscribers above 9M subscribers when F2P games like SWTOR, AOC , TSW and basically everything else can´t even maintain their player counts WITHOUT a subscription.

Lets just be pessimistic and say WOW loses 1M subscribers per year (expansion over expansion), we will STILL be talking about WOW as by far the largest MMO in 7 or 8 years.

[Slowpoke is a Gamer]

This isn't about WoW, or Titan.

This is about a company that holds the #1 and #3 top selling games worldwide in addition to some of the most lucrative franchises in the industry right now.

[Pann]

...and, with the release of a content patch the subs rise...in some circles this is called a "trend".

A whole expansion has just been launched in China and there are still loses. So what does this content patch offer that previous patches have not? Anyone that returns is likely to find that they will have to run the same content that did not hold their interest in order to progress to the new content.

[mvaliz]

33 % of the total revenue came from Blizzard dude. And they did it with a game which is the ONLY one left as a multi million subscription based game. THIS EXACTLY was what I said for days now. Stock traders thought WOW would loose 3 to 4 million subscriptions due to the competition back in late 2011. [snip]

Dude...seriously... stock traders do not watch WoW subscriptions.

If this was true, they would've had massive stock boosts shortly after SW:ToR announced Free-to-play. They didn't...

What makes this 400k loss so special and unique to jump up that high?

Seriously dude, it's Skylanders... don't underestimate the power of the hundreds of millions of kids that are "not" of the comparatively piddely 9.6 million that are WoW. 9.6 is awesome compared to all MMORPGs - but not awesome compared to bigger fish like Skylanders. Chances are your Grandmother has heard of Skylanders by this point, and not World of Warcraft.

[Gsara]

What? The Midas touch? Let's see in the past year they have fallen foul of Korean and German authorities for ignoring basic customer rights and their flagship game has yet again failed to hold on to its customers.

Yet profits are up not down. No one cares that some dude got ganked by a lvl 90 because of the crz, that a class isnt viable in arena's or that a class is under performing in PvE. A couple of mishap's with customer service doesnt mean anything either. If wow had lost 2+ million subs since release then it might be an issue but only for one game under the actiblizz company.

Non of that matters at all to investors. What does matter is that profits are up and the next year looks to be very promising for the stock.

[Pann]

Yet profits are up not down. No one cares that some dude got ganked by a lvl 90 because of the crz, that a class isnt viable in arena's or that a class is under performing in PvE. A couple of mishap's with customer service doesnt mean anything either. If wow had lost 2+ million subs since release then it might be an issue but only for one game under the actiblizz company.

Non of that matters at all to investors. What does matter is that profits are up and the next year looks to be very promising for the stock.

Go back and read the thread. Profits are up because of box sales not subscriber numbers. What about next year looks very promising?

[Jazara]

Go back and read the thread. Profits are up because of box sales not subscriber numbers. What about next year looks very promising?

Expansions that will be best sellers. Possibly Blizzard All-Stars? Which will probably be a best seller if ALL their other games are anything to go by.

[Belize]

Haha..so now how are haters gonna turn this around?

They already have, they're putting this on CoD and Skylanders...

[Gsara]

Go back and read the thread. Profits are up because of box sales not subscriber numbers. What about next year looks very promising?

Skylanders, cod, continued sub revenue from wow, starcraft xpac plus im sure there is more. The thread isnt about just wow which is all you are talking about, which is only a small part of the actual thread title Actiblizz stock. Profits are profits it doesnt matter where they come from at all.

[Pann]

Expansions that will be best sellers. Possibly Blizzard All-Stars? Which will probably be a best seller if ALL their other games are anything to go by.

What expansions? WOW is not going to have another expansion for at least a year, a D3 expansion will be successful but there is no guarantee that it will be released this year or that it will sell in the same volumes as the base game and Starcaft will probably sell well but compared to other ATVI title's income will not be huge.

Skylanders, cod, continued sub revenue from wow, starcraft xpac plus im sure there is more. The thread isnt about just wow which is all you are talking about, which is only a small part of the actual thread title Actiblizz stock. Profits are profits it doesnt matter where they come from at all.

COD is starting to decline, WOW is in decline, Starcraft is successful but not in the league of WOW or COD. Skylanders has the potential to the next Star Wars, Transformers, TMNT, Cabbage Patch, Power Rangers, Furby, etc.

[Leonard McCoy]

I find it hilarious that you people are so identified with the company you actually care when it's stock price increases. I doubt the majority of you applauding this actually own shares in the company, so I'm left to ask are you so far up Blizzards asshole that the stock price rising gives you a boner? You'll forgive the crude reference but it honestly feels like some of you are in love ACTUALLY IN LOVE and gay for Blizzard.

Infracted: Please don't insult users with which you disagree - Eschaton.

[BenBos]

...then tell me, why DIDN'T the stocks jump up 11.19% or close to that at any single time durring Cata's time? Or Wrath - when the subs were at their highest? Right now there's WAY more competition against WoW than durring any of those expansions - and back then they had HIGHER subs!

You seriously think that WoW reporting a 400+ K sub LOSS is what bumped up those?

That's a very good question but easy to answer. A lot of factors bumped it up but WOW subs is no negative influence anymore.

In 2009 and 2011 WOW still had a SUBSCRIPTIONS competition...

In late 2011... WOW was expected to loose between 3 to 4 million subscribers due to the upcoming competition of the next big things.

These turned into free to play stuff in mid to late 2012 with the end result of having less competitive subs based games than expected.

It is a market mechanism of expectancy. People forget that WOW had the biggest challenges yet in late 2011.

2013 sees less pressure by lack of subscription based players on the same market.

At the same time --- in 2012 --- free to play games and IPad thingies did not make the huge impact it was expected to make. As free to play games on the internet = NOT equal to steady income revenue (see the crash on Zynga and Facebook, both UNDERPERFORMED in revenue DESPITE huge "user"/"player" numbers).

It is only logical that WOW subs no longer have this negative influence as P2P apparently proves to be more reliable than F2P.

[Azrile]

They already have, they're putting this on CoD and Skylanders...

I am a huge fanboy of WOW. But fact is fact.. the jump today was because of Skylanders (mainly). WOW helped ATVI beat the numbers, which was a good thing, but not nearly enough to cause a 10% rise. The actual subscriber number was probably barely looked it. If WOW had dropped to 7M but earned a crapload of money selling a mount which made revenues be where they were today, the stock would have jumped 10% anyway.

Tech stocks do not jump 10% because of ´holding subscribers´. Stock prices are FUTURE oriented and tech stocks in particular need to have a narrative going forward, and that is Skylanders.

[Pann]

That's a very good question but easy to answer. A lot of factors bumped it up but WOW subs is no negative influence anymore.

In 2009 and 2011 WOW still had a SUBSCRIPTIONS competition...

In late 2011... WOW was expected to loose between 3 to 4 million subscribers due to the upcoming competition of the next big things.

These turned into free to play stuff in mid to late 2012 with the end result of having less competitive subs based games than expected.

it is amarket mechanism of expectancy. People forget that WOW had the biggest challenges yet in late 2011.

2013 sees less pressure by lack of subscription based players on the same market.

Despite it apparently being an easy question to answer you have not done so.

Who expected WOW to lose 3 to 4 million subscribers?

If stock holders were primarily concerned about WOW why would ATVI stock rise in the face of falling sub numbers?

[BenBos]

I am a huge fanboy of WOW. But fact is fact.. the jump today was because of Skylanders (mainly). WOW helped ATVI beat the numbers, which was a good thing, but not nearly enough to cause a 10% rise. The actual subscriber number was probably barely looked it. If WOW had dropped to 7M but earned a crapload of money selling a mount which made revenues be where they were today, the stock would have jumped 10% anyway.

Tech stocks do not jump 10% because of ´holding subscribers´. Stock prices are FUTURE oriented and tech stocks in particular need to have a narrative going forward, and that is Skylanders.

I can quote several stock traders in late 2011 who published they saw WOW loose 3 to 4 million subscriptions to SW TOR. Actually several of them expected it to beat WOW subscriptions as early as mid 2012...

The moment the market changed, the expectancy changed. This along with the clear proof that those huge numbers of free to play games could not be turned into steady money streams was a turning point.

the PRESENT situation as such is clear.

More than 1 billion dollars per year on a subscription based game that is the only vast one in the market plays a role in this steady stream of revenue.

That changed during 2012: you no longer have several potential players in that 1+ billion steady income (sub based) market...

It is that total revenue from MMO play that plays in another new market situation.

Why do you think ATVI publishes several colons on the MMO part in their sheets ?

MMORPG players are not awakened yet... but simply put : the subscription based 2013 market has only one (and a half) player left to grab the 1 billion dollar(mostly western) market and it simply did in revenue.

That's why Morhaime says they lost only in China..

[Bethrezen]

Owned over 30 shares for over 2 years now. This news doesn't at all surprise me, and just solidifies my future retirement further alongside my Navy ventures. It's good to understand economics + gaming!

[Nerraw]

Despite it apparently being an easy question to answer you have not done so.

Who expected WOW to lose 3 to 4 million subscribers?

If stock holders were primarily concerned about WOW why would ATVI stock rise in the face of falling sub numbers?

Some dude a couple of weeks ago stood his ground that he believed WoW would have shed 4 million people in the last quarter.