What's your predictions for the Q1 Call?

[Berethos08]

They've been having trouble keeping up since MoP, they're not a reliable source IMO anymore.

It's not the first place for population information to support the comparison, and it's a fact that US-Thrall turned seriously Horde heavy a while back (near the end of Wrath, if I recall). Used to be a mostly balanced server...now we have 5 total Alliance guilds in the top 120 on the server (top two are 30 and 40 respectively, with the next showing up at 109). Was a bit of a tongue in cheek comment, though...when I last played with any regularity (early to mid-Cata) you could barely turn one way or the other without bumping into another Blood Elf. Was a bit of a game between my friends and I at the time...spot the non-Belf horde player.

[Deleted]

The income is a lot, but it is nowhere near the billions when you take into account that Chinese don't pay a normal subscription, and pay far less a month than EU and US does. Even if 10 million people payed their 15 dollars a month you still only get 600 million per quarter, which is probably vastly overstated. They make a lot, sure. But basic math alone proves that making over a billion off WoW per quarter is almost completely unreasonable. (also remember it will be less as well due to discounts for paying multiple months and so on)

You got it right the 15$ per user formula was always a fluke.
They do not receive 15$ subscription fees for each player even in the states.

But almost one fifth of the average earnings are compromised of newly released expansion sales.
Add to that regular box and expansion sales.
Add to that my little pony and other cash shop sales.
Add to that the paid character transfer goldmine created from keeping and recommending dead server.

At the end they speak of yearly earnings. Not quarterly. It never has been billions. Over a billion yes, but not multiple billion.
We seriously need a sticky tutorial for this kind of topic just explaining and reminding of the basic facts,
because everyone keeps making the same mistakes over and over again, repeating the same arguments every 3 months anew.

[But I Hate You All]

I think Wow will continue to decline at the same rate - 4 sub/min. I.e. loss of one sub every 15 sec = 500k subs loss per quarter. This Q1 call is very meanfull, cuz it will be the turning point: will this game continue becoming asian-grind-pokemon-style game or we will have a hope, it will turn to it's normal direction, as this happened in Cata.

agreed. I think the decline will keep going

[DrIvoRobotnik]

Mild Sub increase really... For most part I think MoP is great.

[Seranthor]

No this topic is asking what is your predictions for the first quater results not how much revenue they have made from it.

How is discussing revenue NOT relevant to the thread title? it does say 'What's your prediction for the Q1 call' right? The title is asking for predictions... poster was discussing something that invariably will be MORE relevant to the investors than the subscription numbers of but one of ATVI's income streams.

If anything, he's the one more on topic.

[Pann]

How is discussing revenue NOT relevant to the thread title? it does say 'What's your prediction for the Q1 call' right? The title is asking for predictions... poster was discussing something that invariably will be MORE relevant to the investors than the subscription numbers of but one of ATVI's income streams.

If anything, he's the one more on topic.

For starters this is the WOW section of the forums so it is likely that the thread is relevant to the performance of WOW and not Activison-Blizzard as a whole. Also, everyone else that has posted has seemed to get that this thread is about sub numbers. In order for anyone to accurately predict the revenue of WOW we would need to know the breakdown of subs per region, what payment periods they use, have access to sales data of MOP, have figures on transfers and other value added services and know how many COD elite subscriptions there are none of the figures are publicly available.

Whilst what the poster was discussing might have more relevance to an investor it has none to this thread. I can only suggest that if you wish to discuss in depth the financial performance of ATVI there are websites dedicated to such topics.

[Seranthor]

For starters this is the WOW section of the forums so it is likely that the thread is relevant to the performance of WOW and not Activison-Blizzard as a whole. Also, everyone else that has posted has seemed to get that this thread is about sub numbers. In order for anyone to accurately predict the revenue of WOW we would need to know the breakdown of subs per region, what payment periods they use, have access to sales data of MOP, have figures on transfers and other value added services and know how many COD elite subscriptions there are none of the figures are publicly available.

Whilst what the poster was discussing might have more relevance to an investor it has none to this thread. I can only suggest that if you wish to discuss in depth the financial performance of ATVI there are websites dedicated to such topics.

Then perhaps the thread title should reflect it... perhaps, 'what is your prediction for the sub number?' Hmmm? just a thought.

[Pann]

Then perhaps the thread title should reflect it... perhaps, 'what is your prediction for the sub number?' Hmmm? just a thought.

Well most people seemed to get what the thread was about I suppose there is always going to be the odd person that doesn't.

[Deleted]

Sub loss for sure maybe 400k.

Unlike some people though I don't think this is because OMFG MoP and Pandas suck or whatever personal hatred some people have towards WoW.

I think WoW is in the best place it has ever been.

Raiding is really really good just now.

I am a bit scared that they can't produce 3 massive unique tiers in a row (in less time than ever before as well) so am waiting with baited breath to see how SoO turns out.

We are getting content as quick as ever and the content is varied (I must admit I would like some new 5 mans but I don't want them to rain raid quality epics).

I do think people are getting tired of the "MMO grind" though and WoW is 8 years old.

If I think about all the amazing single player games I have missed out on I think I can see their point as well

[Conscious]

And quarterly results are ALL about revenue btw. Not about subscriptions, that's a sideshow for stockholders.

Not when you're having what seems like two expansions straight, with nothing but losses to the player-base.

WoW is ActiBlizzard's biggest, and most successful project.

If it's subscription numbers weren't a point of interest before, I can assure you they're starting to be.

[Rhaktor]

Maybe MMO champion should make an "Armchair Stockbrokers and Doomsayers" forum so that these threads could be kept in one place, preferably out of sight.

[enchanted]

Simple; drama and nothing more... The right moment when to say wow is dead when its sub count is at 2m or less, but compared to other MMO's its still alive and I mean EQ still has 500k and yet isnt dead.

EDIT: For the number of subscribers, I think a 100k~200k drop could be reasonable since most of the people I know arent playing wow anymore but again, Im not speaking for the voice of everyone who still plays are quitting.

[Vankrys]

WoW is ActiBlizzard's biggest, and most successful project.

the statement stimulate reflection for me. Is it true? can it be true?

Does wow make more money than CoD? CoD sells about 30 millions copy every years, not counting the map pack, the premium... that franchise probably over a billion a year.

Still which is the most profitable, that is profit = income - expenses. CoD or WoW?

[Afrospinach]

I don't really care and I'm curious as to why others do?

I consume Blizz's product, thats the sum total of my relatioship with them. I don't follow Audi's results and obsess over their sales figures because I drive one.

Dude, what is wrong with you! You should be ploughing through every quarterly report from Audi to affirm your choices! Live at little!

[Anjerith]

My prediction is that somebody will rant about how they were right in their internet opinion, someone will rant about how they were wrong. The games Blizzard makes will continue to be made and make profit.

[MoanaLisa]

As far as Activision as a whole goes, I think there's some children's game--don't know the name but it was mentioned prominently in the last earnings call--that is their biggest seller overall. If not their largest it's right up there with CoD. WoW is a little different of course because it's revenue model is extremely diverse world-wide. All three games though make a huge pile of money which indeed is more important to investors. WoW subscriptions could drop in half but if Blizzard figured out a way to continue to make as much profit out of it as now actual stock investors wouldn't care.

[Osmeric]

As far as Activision as a whole goes, I think there's some children's game--don't know the name but it was mentioned prominently in the last earnings call--that is their biggest seller overall.

Skylanders.

[Vankrys]

WoW subscriptions could drop in half but if Blizzard figured out a way to continue to make as much profit out of it as now actual stock investors wouldn't care.

this is the problem right here, isn't it? Blizzard should not worry about making money but making games. Blizzard should be a game developer not a business manager company.

[MoanaLisa]

this is the problem right here, isn't it? Blizzard should not worry about making money but making games. Blizzard should be a game developer not a business manager company.

@Osmeric: Thanks. Much appreciated.

Blizzard must worry about making money or they'll not be making games for anyone at all. Game design studios do go out of business you know. Even worthy non-MMO player-supported efforts like POE (as an example) have to make money eventually or at least make back their costs.

[crakerjack]

Considering they gave me a 7 day pass recently... I'm assuming that they're trying to boost player counts for a short period until q1 is over. Too bad for them though, I ain't going back, that's what you get when you ruin an amazing rpg and turn it into a funland non rpg... Especially PvP... why bother have it in the game when it's going to be so unbalanced? They create the game and put pvp in it from the get go... but don't follow up on class balancing? I mean they did for a while or at least tried but now they just scrape it under the rug.