1.3 million sub drop

[Ragashii]

Really? People still look up to hardcores? You've got to be kidding me. I can't imagine they've got a legion of tottering fans or haters just paying 15 bucks a month to blow them or villify them. In fact the only minority smaller than the hardcores is probably the people who actually care about them.

Hero worship among players in World of Warcraft is greatly overstated. Look at guilds as an example: top-of-the-line guilds come and go and get replaced with other guilds. It's been going on forever. In any case, it's hard to make a case that people would abandon the game because their 'hero' decided to quit playing. I'm not saying it's impossible but it's so far out of my mental construct that I can't imagine it's a common thing. In years of playing this I have yet to read much of anything in any chat channel that is like this. If it was so common, I imagine I'd have seen it a few times.

If there was no hero worship then people would not watch gladiator streams, or care about the world first race. But it turns out people do care about those things, as silly as they are. It's the reason people watch swifty, athene, vanguard etc. Pretty much the entire reason e-sports exist as well, at a fundamental level.

[Slowpoke is a Gamer]

one thing i don't understand though, i view MoP the most casual time ever of wow, think about it

heroic dungeon - faceroll easy, 15 minutes bite size, screeming casual
LFR - design for casual raiding, include every raid of mop
daily - time consuming but casual, you do them at your own pace and on your schedule, this is casual
scenario - strike me as casual
pet battle - i see them as casual mini games
the farming activity - seems also quite casual.
challenge mode dungeon - i would consider as semi casual. they need skill and practice, but i never considered casual player as unskill. They are shortpiece of content that can be done anythime, so casual, but are best done with the same team everytime, so a need for organisation (so not so casual)
PVP can be done casually too

so i viewed that extention as the most casual friendly wow has ever been.
Heroic raid have never been casual content, that's why they introduce LFR. Even normal raid on some level aren't for casual, at least on a weelky basis, even more so with LFR.

What am i missing?

Oh please, allow someone who's not bias toward Vanilla-style raiding to try.


heroic dungeon - They released a bunch at launch, and then never touched them again. By now no one has a reason to run heroics anymore.
LFR - Designed for speed running. Faceroll easy, and generally bottable.
daily - time consuming, spend a month on them and not even hit Honored.
scenario - Zerg rush.
pet battle - Fine, but not something worth $15/month
the farming activity - See above.
challenge mode dungeon - No one does them.
PVP - Broken as all hell.

[Deleted]

Really? People still look up to hardcores? You've got to be kidding me. I can't imagine they've got a legion of tottering fans or haters just paying 15 bucks a month to blow them or villify them. In fact the only minority smaller than the hardcores is probably the people who actually care about them.

It's not about looking up to the hardcores. I think more then 100k people watched Dragon Soul heroic challenge with top guilds. There are many fan sites like Icy-veins, Mana flask, Noxxic who take hardcore approach to game. Simply saying that if they don't exist nothing would happen is stupid.

[Zaqwert]

Losing 1.3 million customers, 16% of everyone playing the game in THREE MONTHS is huge.

It doesn't matter how many are left, no business ever wants to lose 16% of their business, especially in such a short period of time.

Also, Blizzard said in the call they expect it to be even lower by the end of the year, aka they know it's gonna dip even lower. I wouldn't be too terribly surpised to see 5 mil by the end of the year.

[Glorious Leader]

Having rep gating for valor items kills casual play.
Having valor items cost more than their cata counterparts while taking longer to get and having a smaller cap kills casual play.
Having LFRs as a catch up method rather than heroic dungeons kills casual play, especially when the process of queueing and clearing takes longer than most guilds spend a night in progression raiding (1 hour queue, 2-3 hours to clear a wing).
PvP Power and extreme gear dependency kills casual pvp (the ONLY thing they seem to be addressing)
No surprise casual subs are taking a dive.
People who have 4-5 hours a day to dedicate to wow won't be piddling around on casual ventures, they will be going after far more rewarding content like rated BGs and heroic or even normal raids.

Using DS, which dragged out for nearly a year and allowed for so many players to not only ding 85 on numerous alts, but gear them in LFR and then super nerfed normal and even hardmode Dragon Soul, with its 8 bosses, clearable in one night, is a terrible standard blizzard set as a model to "avoid" because of the boredom. If ToT dragged on for a year, with people at the end of that year STILL not getting the weapon upgrade they need cause LFR luck is just that bad, even more people would quit, and never return, than did during DS. A lot more.

Bang on. It doesn't help that the loot tables in ToT are so god damn bloated and that the majority of guilds raiding 10 man get the shaft and just simple DO NOT GET ENOUGH LOOT.

[Deleted]

One thing I'm liking is this:

Throughout the entire history of the game, Blizzard has obfuscated or not released NA/Euro/Aus numbers. Personally, this is all I really care about. In other markets there are different subscription models (specifically pay-per-hour). A pph model will give you funny results- you'll get WAY more people who count than you should, and the moment those people go from being log-on-once-a-month to log-on-once-every-two-months, you lose half of their accounting. But really, people who play so infrequently shouldn't honestly be counted in the first place.

Blizzard should have always delivered two numbers. Then we could see if the SUBSCRIPTION numbers- you know, people who SUBSCRIBE LIKE ME instead of play a whole different model- would show us what's actually going on AS RELATES TO US.

So at least it's biting them in the ass there. Just as when they claimed huge numbers in the past, I have no idea whether those numbers are really players or just people who are like Azerothian tourists.

You know what I've been wondering that myself for a while. I stopped playing a good few months now but the account is still up. Do I count as an "active account"?

[Glorious Leader]

It's not about looking up to the hardcores. I think more then 100k people watched Dragon Soul heroic challenge with top guilds. There are many fan sites like Icy-veins, Mana flask, Noxxic who take hardcore approach to game. Simply saying that if they don't exist nothing would happen is stupid.

But they don't look up to them because their hardcores. They go to icy-veins and Noxxic because those are more or less enycopledias for what to do with your character. You could not only theory craft the shit out of that you could also simple raid once or twice a week and figure that out. nothing hardcore invovled.

Theirs a difference between hardcore in terms of time investment and hardcore in terms of just being able to figure shit out. People may go to noxxic or elitist jerks for information but how many of those people really give a shit and watch blood legion raid for 18 hours a day?

[Zooch]

I think there seems to be some ignorance in place by the people who staunchly defend the 8.3 million number as being significantly larger than any MMO on the market, and how that number somehow signifies WoW's remaining superiority in the genre. I agree that WoW still is probably the most polished, developed, and entertaining MMO out there, but I would wager that these are not the reasons it has retained 8.3 million subscribers after 8.5 years. I would attribute this large number to the fact that WoW was released as the first mainstream high quality MMO title in history after a successful RTS game and story that propelled it to such a high plateau. That generation of players will always foster some sentimentality towards the game, and this loyalty will be difficult to kill off, even with a substandard set of expansions. However, this isn't something to sing praise to. As a business owner myself, I know that the board at Activision Blizzard isn't thrilled about having 8.3 million subscribers at the end of 8.5 years. They're looking at enormous decline the game has experienced the past two years, and they will be spending sleepless nights figuring out how to curb the bleeding of the biggest cash cow in their company's history.

[spectrefax]

This craze is lol worthy. Seems mods are working overtime on this site due to the insane amount of sub drop related threads that are popping up. I can only imagine what the official forums are like.

If there's one thing WoW players like more than playing WoW, it's dooms-daying about the game and sub losses.

Also, the report that was just released doesn't even contain the most recent data of the past couple months. Expect Q2 reports to be even worse.

Losing 14% of your game's customer base in one quarter? That's not a bot banwave folks.

[Deleted]

But they don't look up to them because their hardcores. They go to icy-veins and Noxxic because those are more or less enycopledias for what to do with your character. You could not only theory craft the shit out of that you could also simple raid once or twice a week and figure that out. nothing hardcore invovled.

If you go to Icy-veins or Noxxic to read about your class and min/max then you are not casual. If many ppl watch top guilds competing obviously it's worth something. Saying it wouldn't matter that these things don't exist is not true.

[Glorious Leader]

If there was no hero worship then people would not watch gladiator streams, or care about the world first race. But it turns out people do care about those things, as silly as they are. It's the reason people watch swifty, athene, vanguard etc. Pretty much the entire reason e-sports exist as well, at a fundamental level.

I don't think people do by and large care about the worlds first race. I don't think people do by and large really give a shit about sifty and athene. MMO esports is a joke and nobody in warcraft actually cares. If we were talking about say starcraft or dota that might be a different story.

[Vankrys]

Oh please, allow someone who's not bias toward Vanilla-style raiding to try.


heroic dungeon - They released a bunch at launch, and then never touched them again. By now no one has a reason to run heroics anymore.
LFR - Designed for speed running. Faceroll easy, and generally bottable.
daily - time consuming, spend a month on them and not even hit Honored.
scenario - Zerg rush.
pet battle - Fine, but not something worth $15/month
the farming activity - See above.
challenge mode dungeon - No one does them.
PVP - Broken as all hell.

yes, i understand your evaluation of them, but aren't those activity casual?
maybe not compelling but casual right.

So would you consider MoP the most casual expansion of wow.

My definition of casual is something you do on your own time at your own pace, without really putting too much thought into it, that is no organisation or far ahead thinking.


i hear the argument that casual player prefer F2P or maybe par as you play without subscriber plan that tight you in though

maybe that's it.

[Ausr]

I think there seems to be some ignorance in place by the people who staunchly defend the 8.3 million number as being significantly larger than any MMO on the market, and how that number somehow signifies WoW's remaining superiority in the genre. I agree that WoW still is probably the most polished, developed, and entertaining MMO out there, but I would wager that these are not the reasons it has retained 8.3 million subscribers after 8.5 years. I would attribute this large number to the fact that WoW was released as the first mainstream high quality MMO title in history after a successful RTS game and story that propelled it to such a high plateau. That generation of players will always foster some sentimentality towards the game, and this loyalty will be difficult to kill off, even with a substandard set of expansions. However, this isn't something to sing praise to. As a business owner myself, I know that the board at Activision Blizzard isn't thrilled about having 8.3 million subscribers at the end of 8.5 years. They're looking at enormous decline the game has experienced the past two years, and they will be spending sleepless nights figuring out how to curb the bleeding of the biggest cash cow in their company's history.

Most of us who say "8.3 million is still a lot!" also realize, unlike you and others in this thread, WoW would never remain at those players and would lose them at one point, whether do to Blizzard dropping support or it's 9 year existence.

[Glorious Leader]

If you go to Icy-veins or Noxxic to read about your class and min/max then you are not casual. If many ppl watch top guilds competing obviously it's worth something. Saying it wouldn't matter that these things don't exist is not true.

Lol what? Sorry I don't buy that. My guild is extremely casual, we raid 4-5 hours a week and a bunch of us do use Icy veins. Hell some of us don't and just figure it out on our own. Using Icy veins of Noxxix is not a mater of being casual or not, in fact one could make the argument that those websites are MADE FOR casuals so they know what to do and don't just simple flounder in game.

---------- Post added 2013-05-09 at 12:59 AM ----------

yes, i understand your evaluation of them, but aren't those activity casual?

No because if you want any reward out of them they require to much time. Difficulty is not the only measure of casual. Mists is the least casual friendly expac. I was casual in cataclysm and did amazing because well I had no problems with hard dungeons. I understand players did though and that's fine. Cataclysm was still more casual friendly but not by much I guess.

[Armourboy]

Although the total number is surprising, the drop isn't. Basically from reading everything it sounds like to me that the F2P market is finally having an influence on sub number. Casual players are people who do not have a lot of time, and many of them are finding they can waste just as much time and have just as much fun from a game that is free or relatively free.

As much as people bitch and moan about losing the hardcore or normal player, its pretty apparent that what really is happening is that the casual player is leaving in droves.

Oddly enough though its not due to a lack or poor quality of content ( at least not from what I have experienced) but more to do with economics. I think this is basically what they are saying when the speak of competition and outside pressure. There are a ton of games to draw the casual player away, in both NA/EU and especially in Asia.

[Fagatronics]

You know what I've been wondering that myself for a while. I stopped playing a good few months now but the account is still up. Do I count as an "active account"?

If by "account is still up" you mean paying a subscription or paid in advance for like a 6 month subscription, then yes.

[Slowpoke is a Gamer]

Losing 1.3 million customers, 16% of everyone playing the game in THREE MONTHS is huge.

It doesn't matter how many are left, no business ever wants to lose 16% of their business, especially in such a short period of time.

Also, Blizzard said in the call they expect it to be even lower by the end of the year, aka they know it's gonna dip even lower. I wouldn't be too terribly surpised to see 5 mil by the end of the year.

If this pace keeps up we'd be at 4 million by the end of the year. If it speeds up, even worse.

Blizzcon is their very last chance. If they don't wow the crowds right there on Expansion V, it's done.

[Ragashii]

I don't think people do by and large care about the worlds first race. I don't think people do by and large really give a shit about sifty and athene. MMO esports is a joke and nobody in warcraft actually cares. If we were talking about say starcraft or dota that might be a different story.

The e-sport thing applies to all games really. A lot of people watch their favorite players in tournaments that offer a lot of money simply because there is a demand for it.

[nekobaka]

Hero worship among players in World of Warcraft is greatly overstated. Look at guilds as an example: top-of-the-line guilds come and go and get replaced with other guilds. It's been going on forever. In any case, it's hard to make a case that people would abandon the game because their 'hero' decided to quit playing. I'm not saying it's impossible but it's so far out of my mental construct that I can't imagine it's a common thing. In years of playing this I have yet to read much of anything in any chat channel that is like this. If it was so common, I imagine I'd have seen it a few times.

There is looking up to players to worship them and then there is looking up to players as a goal for oneself to strive to become a better player.

I once looked at those players in all that raid gear and went wow one day I want to get to there or see the things they saw. So going back to old raids that I did not see was part of that. Then there was becoming a better player and forming social connections within the realm to boost my reputation as a good player. I did not see a player with better gear than I and get butthurt that they was able to see more and be rewarded more for putting more effort and time into a game. I used the experience in a productive way to become a better player and continued to keep reasonable expectations while being happy with my own accomplishments. My game play satisfaction did not come from my comparison to other players.

If you go to Icy-veins or Noxxic to read about your class and min/max then you are not casual. If many ppl watch top guilds competing obviously it's worth something. Saying it wouldn't matter that these things don't exist is not true.

Spending a small fraction of game play time to look at guides of which the work is done for you is hardcore? Guess the act of wanting to improve oneself is also hardcore. Next you are going to tell me that socializing and working together with others is hardcore.

[stryfe1]

WoW is not comparable to something like a cassette player whose popularity and marketability will decline when the new tech like a CD player comes onto the market. WoW is like an automobile. It needs to change to meet the needs of the people buying it and it has to a degree, but the devs have stopped listening to some rather widespread complaints about their product and as a result people are no longer paying their subs. WoW doesn't have to go into decline, it's entirely in the devs hands to keep people wanting to play.

It is in decline. It isn't a case of WoW not having to go into decline. Activision Blizzard's subscriber report has shown this for a long time. They have been in decline for 3 years now. What they can do is flatten that decline out to the best of their abilities-- like you and others have mentioned. Listening to the player base that is still here. Give them things...an expansion people are clamoring for, cheaper server transfers, improved models, different methods to gear up... whatever really. Or, reinvent the cycle and successfully pull people into Titan whenever it releases so they are starting fresh.