Sub predictions for Q2, 2013

[Yuuki Asuna]

Im just curious to find out what people think will happen to the subs this quarter. What kind of drop (or gain) are you predicting?

I know. But I just don't see why you would care so much if you quit the game and moved on?

But for the hell of it. 300-500k loss. Maybe even a gain if 5.4 turns out great with the supposedly 'new' feature coming

[Jaylock]

I know. But I just don't see why you would care so much if you quit the game and moved on?

But for the hell of it. 300-500k loss. Maybe even a gain if 5.4 turns out great with the supposedly 'new' feature coming

Well I like warcraft lore and I have had some really fun times playing the game. I just am bored of it right now. It just needs a fresh breath of air in it again.

[Yuuki Asuna]

Well I like warcraft lore and I have had some really fun times playing the game. I just am bored of it right now. It just needs a fresh breath of air in it again.

Yeah, I'm still enjoying it! The new patch is not too far a way. I just got back into the game from a break. Maybe a break will be nice for you!

[Deleted]

Defo lower.

Game is close to 9 years old, competition is stiffer, almost all of the competition is F2P or B2P.

[Yuuki Asuna]

Defo lower.

Game is close to 9 years old, competition is stiffer, almost all of the competition is F2P or B2P.

That doesn't always mean anything though. I mean Guild Wars 2 is an awesome F2P game but I see more people coming back to WoW now just because they miss the 'WoW' feeling. I almost gave up on WoW because of people and friends that left the game. But more of my guildies and RL friends are returning and it's making the game fun again! I don't care if it's getting old At least it's not abandoned!

[Jaylock]

Yeah, I'm still enjoying it! The new patch is not too far a way. I just got back into the game from a break. Maybe a break will be nice for you!

Yeah I am taking a break, maybe a new patch or the new expansion will bring me back to it

[LocNess]

I don't think the loss will be as extreme as Q1, however I think it could lose almost up to another 1 mil. Game still has a lot of subscribers though so meh nothing too bad.

[Chrno]

I don't think the loss will be as extreme as Q1, however I think it could lose almost up to another 1 mil. Game still has a lot of subscribers though so meh nothing too bad.

i expect the drop to be 1mil + tbh.
Asia will prob have a smaller drop as prev. quarter.
But this time arround i expect a large drop on the west aswell.
Many people underestimate the dying servers and the lack of merges. WoW currently has WAAAY to many server for the activity it has.

[Osmeric]

The really important question is: why does anyone care?

It's interesting how a rhetorical question being well-answered doesn't keep people from being boring and repeating it.

[Deleted]

I have this theory that Blizzard have deliberately made a big deal of the sub loses and have made sure they get a lot of coverage for it, so that more people will start talking about the game and more ex-players will get nostalgic or miss the game and want to resub.

As for Q2, I think 7-8M sounds like a realistic estimate.

[BenBos]

Yeah I quit World of Crapcraft a long time ago. I just got bored with how repetitive it is and how there is nothing to do unless you are a basement dwelling nolifer who spends hours of time in that game.

I have since moved on to greener pastures and now I am happily playing Guildwars 2, Rift, and SWToR

Oh look a statement by the OP of this thread talking about "Crapcraft" and promoting other games with ZERO subscriptions.

NADA, ZERO, NOIGHT, NULL, NILL, NUL, subscriptions in these other copycats but the hate dude wants to know active paid subs in what he calls "Crapcraft"

The OP: what a loser. Reported.

Keep it civil please.

[BenBos]

These threads tend to be instigated by people who keep repeating that: "Blizzard has 8,5 million WoW subscribers!"

They don't. They got approximately 3 to 3,5 million WoW subscribers... because 5 million WoW 'subscribers' belong to NetEase China of which Blizzard barely sees a penny...

If you want to compare WoW with other MMOs then use the 3,5M number ... and realize that other games like GW2 aren't too far away from that number, that F2P games like LoL dwarf that number.

Secondly, people keep using the number as somehow an argument of quality and activity. Well ... like others pointed out, there are perhaps 20 decently populated realms (with major faction imbalances on all of them), and tons of other realms that are basically dead ... on the brink of dead. Your chance of coming across another person while you play the game on those servers are very very low... But if you go play GW2, Rift or NWO you'll be surrounded by people and activity, looking to do group quests, dungeons etc even at low levels.

So indeed, who the fuck gives a damn that Blizzard has 3,5M WoW subscribers when the realms and gameplay feels less MMO and less lively than other F2P games???

You lost the discussion.

Why? Because Blizzard is a stock rated company and the first quarter published showedthe MMO part brought in ... 240 million dollars.

So your 3 million western subs "guess" is wrong since 3 million would NEVER bring in 240 million bucks in 3 months.

Btw: Blizzard as a stock rated company can not lie about that revenue.

OWNED and in a Big way even.

Get lost hater.

[Sturmbringe]

At LEAST one million lower, down to 7.3mil.

Even back in its heyday, some people used to quit WoW in May for the summer. This alongwith the downward spiral WoW has entered will probably fetch a substantial decrease in subs. An additional one million subs lost (about 12% of what Blizzard claim to be their cuurent sub base) is reasonable and even conservative.

[BenBos]

Rubbish. Else give a source to back up your claim...

Oh man: go to the official wbsite of the company and as a stock rated company, the documents of every quarter is free to download.

Up and including 2012, the WoW part has always shown a +1 billion dollar revenue per year.

These figures are AUDITED and controlled by INDEPENDANT international auditors like The Deutsche Bank etc..

So before posting crap: inform yourself about the money stream of WoW. It really is well documented over there.

Also interesting: the 15 dollar sub is NOT universal in the western world too as countries like Russia pay only 9 dollars per month.

Even SUB cards do not bring in 15 dollars, as they are sold RETAIL, which means only 50% goes go Blizzard (rest is retail).

So you were OWNED by Blizzard's own revenue reports.

UNLESS you think Blizzard is into some illegal Columbian drug dealing: the MONEY revenue IS there to prove those 8 million subs spread.

[BenBos]

http://files.shareholder.com/downloa...%20release.pdf

There is the source...

Amount of income from PC Subscriptions (WoW and Call of Duty Gold Membership) in Q1 2013 was 93M ...
(Page 11 of the report) ... let's assume that 100% of that is WoW (and ignore CoD's contribution), that is 31M per month ... which at 15dollars a month of subscription would leave us with just a bit over 2M subscribers ... but that's not true ofcourse, since many people use other payment plans (3- or 6-monthly), so with an average of 10 dollars a month that leaves us a little over 3M subscribers.

Ergo 3M WoW subscribers is the best estimate we can have for Blizzard. (5M WoW subscribers belonging to NetEase).

Income of first quarter MMO subscriptions 2013: 275 million dollars.

So learn to read.

You are just a fat liar.

[Osmeric]

Income of first quarter MMO subscriptions 2013: 275 million dollars.

So learn to read.

You are just a fat liar.

Oh look, someone is being confused by GAAP accounting again.

[A Challenger!]

Oh look, someone is being confused by GAAP accounting again.

No, not confused, just copiously mad and refusing to see outside the play safe bubble.

Yes, exactly!

*Applause*

I get so tired of people hearing saying Blizzard has 8,3 million subscribers when we know that 5M of those are chinese of which Blizzard doesn't earn much at all.

Agreed. Doesn't mean WoW is a bad game or anything, but it does mean that 8.3 million is a PR number. You'll only ever see half, if that, during your tenure as a subscriber.

[Deleted]

Why do you care how many play the game??? Play the game coz you like it...
I really don't understand these threads...

Who cares if the game loses their subs...

[Austilias]

I don't see why people deem subscription numbers as irrelevant; they're an important and useful gauge of how attractive both the content is, and Blizzard's measures of keeping people playing. With that in mind, MoP has been performing surprisingly poorly over all; it has had the usual, new expansion spike after the subscription losses seen in Cataclysm, yet now we're on the slippery slope once more.

Truthfully i'm not sure why, but i'd put it down to two things;

1) Blizzard thinking that dailies = exciting/engaging/legitimate content
2) Patches having less content than things would seem

This excludes external factors such as competition.

[BenBos]

Oh look, someone is being confused by GAAP accounting again.

Gaap: 275 million dollars in one quarter

Non gaap: 228 million dollars in one quater.

So with 3 million "only" you'll fall short.

Now ADD the fact that several countries don't pay 15 dollars for a sub (eastern EU)
AND A SUB CARD is sold retail with only 50% going to Blizzard,


You see that 8.3 million world wide subs is quite accurate to justity the amounts.

As always has been btw. I always won these discussions.

Easy really since Blizzard has open books for their stockholders and I am one of them.