[Balance] 5.4 Changes and Thoughts

[Deleted]

If the trinkets on ptr are any indication, it'll be nerfed just like the others.

really? my last state of knowledge is that it stays the way it is. only the haste skaling isn't anymore

[Cyteriz]

Blue post >>>
We made this change because, even without the Tier 16 4-piece bonus, we felt that Balance multidotting was too strong. On top of that, with enough mobs available, the Balance rotation was devolving into just Moonfire/Sunfire and spamming Starsurge constantly, to the point of completely ignoring Wrath and Starfire.

The way this works under the hood is by multiplying the base proc chance by SQRT(x)/x, where x is the number of mobs that have Moonfire or Sunfire active. Note that the proc chances are calculated per spell – Moonfire doesn’t count against Sunfire’s proc chance, or vice versa. So as an example, if the base chance is 30%, and you have Sunfire active on 1 mob but Moonfire active on 3, your Sunfire will have a 30% chance to proc Starsurge on a crit, and your Moonfires will each have a 17% chance.

As an aside, this didn’t make the latest PTR push, but we’ll be buffing Wrath, Starfire, and Starfall by 10%.

[Deleted]

really? my last state of knowledge is that it stays the way it is. only the haste skaling isn't anymore

That is the nerf.

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http://us.battle.net/wow/en/forum/topic/9653245458#19

Buff to single target dps, still no words on compensation for multidot dps.

[Fleuria]

Still think wrath needs a complete redesign, specially now they want to try and take away our multi dot aoe, time to actually make it into a good spell rather than some feather tickling filler.

[Dracodraco]

That is the nerf.

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http://us.battle.net/wow/en/forum/topic/9653245458#19

Buff to single target dps, still no words on compensation for multidot dps.

Dude. You just linked to a post which first sentence literally was: "We made this change because, even without the Tier 16 4-piece bonus, we felt that Balance multidotting was too strong"
I doubt you'll be seeing compensation for multidot dps <.<.

#I'monlyherebecauseIwanttoseeCyterizpanic.

[Alzu]

Why on earth do people still ask for a compensation for multidotting? The nerf is barely there. You will still get insane amount of procs.

On the example Lore provided: You will get 3 procs from 10 Sunfire ticks. For Moonfire you'll get 1.7 procs from 10 ticks. But as moonfire basically ticks 3 times as fast, you will get 5.1 procs on average in the same time as for Sunfire. With all the crit and the big SS waste already, I don't think that this will break anything. Especially as they're compensating with a single target DPS boost.

[Deleted]

oh can you just stop with the "will barely notice it" and "will get many procs anyway". If that was the case why would they bother? The whole point is to nerf the proc chance, no matter how you look at it it will be noticable nerf.

@Draco yeah I dunno how I managed to miss that. Just funny that it wasn't a problem the last 2 raiding tiers right?

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Also pretty hilarious that one of the reasons are " the Balance rotation was devolving into just Moonfire/Sunfire and spamming Starsurge constantly, to the point of completely ignoring Wrath and Starfire." when ele shamans are.. well, CL spam.

[Mystikal]

With the under-the-hood mechanics now clarified, does this mean we will only be double-dotting the primary target and only putting up the eclipsed DoT on all other secondary targets, regardless of how many targets there are?

[Alzu]

oh can you just stop with the "will barely notice it" and "will get many procs anyway". If that was the case why would they bother? The whole point is to nerf the proc chance, no matter how you look at it it will be noticable nerf.

I'm asking the same question. I just don't feel like this is going to affect too much, especially when they're compensating our single target spells. They're nerfing the amount of SS you get which means you will cast more Starfire/Wrath whose damage they're buffing.

Everything is going to be fine.

[Cyteriz]

They are buffing singletarget roughly 4 % "yay"

[Souxlya]

I'm asking the same question. I just don't feel like this is going to affect too much, especially when they're compensating our single target spells. They're nerfing the amount of SS you get which means you will cast more Starfire/Wrath whose damage they're buffing.

Everything is going to be fine.

You are missing the entire issue. The buff to our single target is nice, for single target. But since they nerfed our AoE, we need something to even out our AoE, not our single target...

Hurricane and Mushrooms need to be buffed, period. They are horrible right now. Our DoT damage could also be increased, because they hit like a wet noodle. The average Eclipsed DoT hits for the same amount as 1 Eclipsed Nuke, over... that's right 14 seconds.

[Cyous]

If Blizzard changes the formula to...

(SQRT(NumTargets)/(NumTargets*ProcModifier)) * ProcRate

Where "ProcModifier" was 0.9 -- this will certainly nerf SS proc rates, but the cost for even rolling 2 MFs or 2 SnFs won't be as severe.

Basically...
With 2 targets ->
EffectiveProcRate = 23.5% (with 0.9 mod) and 29.9% (set bonus + mod).

Without the Suggested Modifier:
EffectiveProcRate = 21.2% and 26.9%

And for 3 targets? ::
17.3% | 22.0% (no mod)
19.2% | 24.4% (0.9 mod)

(Also, with this suggestion, if we don't add in those buffs it's likely to increase SS's proc rate by 3.3-4.2% for single-target only -- in which case it will offset the buffs to SF,Wrath, and Starfall by increasing our single-target by ~1-2%)

[Souxlya]

You should post that in the Moonkin Nerf thread, quickly, very very quickly!

[Cyous]

When I get home from work, I'll be working on more theorycrafting stuffs for people to rage at.

I need to get effective tick intervals...their proc rates with current-tier crit values, and then factor in the new SS proc formula...and then write a little formula to figure out the effective proc rates for Moonfire and Sunfire and how often we should expect an SS proc whilst comparing it to 5.3 math.

Should be fun. But please keep thinking up to different strats. Looking forward to what people have to say.

[Alzu]

You are missing the entire issue. The buff to our single target is nice, for single target. But since they nerfed our AoE, we need something to even out our AoE, not our single target...

What AoE? Our AoE has been shit for so long. As what comes to multidotting, you can just switch target and use our improved single target on different targets. It'd be the same result as with starsurging different targets.

[Deleted]

As what comes to multidotting, you can just switch target and use our improved single target on different targets. It'd be the same result as with starsurging different targets.

Do you even play moonkin? :P
That comment made me laugh really. Go on live / ptr and see if throwing out SS procs on multiple targets is the same as casting wrath and starfire on multiple targets, you will see very quickly that it is not just terrible but hugely awkward to play like that. Even with the increased single target dmg its not even going to come close to chaining Starsurges.

Just all i can say is if you dont have a clue what your talking about, dont post silly things xD


Also i dont understand why blizzard are buffing wrath starfire and starfall, makes no sense to me, our single target dmg is pretty much fine, why do they keep addressing this when we are screaming about our aoe. I am just bewildered by their logic. If no more changes happen then this will decrease our aoe output slightly, put even more pressure on us lining up eclipses for aoe and just buff our single target damage which doesnt even need it.

[huth]

You are missing the entire issue. The buff to our single target is nice, for single target. But since they nerfed our AoE, we need something to even out our AoE, not our single target...

They nerfed multi-dot, not AoE. We're not getting anything back there because that would defeat the purpose of doing it in the first place.

The average Eclipsed DoT hits for the same amount as 1 Eclipsed Nuke, over... that's right 14 seconds.

Until you figure in haste procs. Then it hits for far more than that.

[Alzu]

blah blah

How is it different to cast an instant Starsurge on a boss than to cast a Starfire on a boss? Maybe it's awkward but I have to agree you need some skill to do that.

Of course casting the Starfire is less damage but if you don't have the Starsurge procs to cast and you want to have AoE, what can you do?

Multidotting is usually just keeping dots on multiple targets and focusing a single one. AoE is either using an "Area of Effect" spell (like Hurricane) or I can imagine weaving your whole multidotting DPS equally between the targets. I chose option two because the change affects our dots, not any AoE spells.

[Souxlya]

They nerfed multi-dot, not AoE. We're not getting anything back there because that would defeat the purpose of doing it in the first place.

Until you figure in haste procs. Then it hits for far more than that.

Multi-DoT is a form of Moonkin AoE, which is stronger then our crap AoE which is why we tend to Multi DoT. It isn't pointless to increase our AoE (Hurricane, Mushrooms), when they are still crap, and they took our only other option Multi Doting away. The values that have been posted for the "diminishing" levels per target are to extreme per target. We need something to not be extremely useless on AoE fights now.

As for haste, extra 4 ticks at 10289 haste still means our DoTs don't hit very hard. If we are lucky to get 7 ticks, from our meta its a little better, but the actual ticks of the spell don't hit very hard.

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Do you even play moonkin? :P
That comment made me laugh really. Go on live / ptr and see if throwing out SS procs on multiple targets is the same as casting wrath and starfire on multiple targets, you will see very quickly that it is not just terrible but hugely awkward to play like that. Even with the increased single target dmg its not even going to come close to chaining Starsurges.

Just all i can say is if you dont have a clue what your talking about, dont post silly things xD


Also i dont understand why blizzard are buffing wrath starfire and starfall, makes no sense to me, our single target dmg is pretty much fine, why do they keep addressing this when we are screaming about our aoe. I am just bewildered by their logic. If no more changes happen then this will decrease our aoe output slightly, put even more pressure on us lining up eclipses for aoe and just buff our single target damage which doesnt even need it.

I think a lot of people can agree that Multi-Doting and SS spam is more tedious then, sitting there channeling Hurricane.

But, as you said, there is no comparison between the damage the two deal, this is why we multi dot and why this is such a big nerf because our other option isn't really an option =(.

I don't really understand why certain people don't see how bad this is, if our AoE spells aren't compensated. Do they just not play in Normal raids, or Heroics? Maybe they haven't seen some of the Fights on PTR? Or maybe, we could guess they are in the same crowed as Blizzard, completely out of touch with their own spec.

[Slippykins]

Ok, so I know Cyous made a comparison above that looks good, but I'm going to further complement it since half the people here feel the sky is falling.

Numbers used:
- base proc chance: 30%
- base proc chance modifier: sqrt(x)/x
- 4-piece modifier: 8%
- crit chance: 50%
- avg. ticks per DoT: 12

Single-target
(30%*sqrt(1)/1+8%) = 38% chance per tick.
---------SS procs = 38%*50%*12 = 2.28 total procs

Two-targets
pre-nerf: 38% chance per tick.
---------SS procs = 38%*50%*12*2 = 4.56 total procs
post-nerf: (30%*sqrt(2)/2+8%) = 29.2% chance per tick.
---------SS procs = 29.2%*50%*12*2 = 3.504 total procs
total SS proc loss: 1.056 procs, 23.2%.

Three-targets
pre-nerf: 38% chance per tick.
---------SS procs = 38%*50%*12*3 = 6.84 total procs
post-nerf: (30%*sqrt(3)/3+8%) = 25.3% chance per tick.
---------SS procs = 25.3%*50%*12*3 = 4.554 total procs
total SS proc loss: 2.286 procs, 33.4%.

Four-targets
pre-nerf: 38% chance per tick.
---------SS procs = 38%*50%*12*4 = 9.12 total procs.
post-nerf: (30%*sqrt(4)/4+8%) = 23% chance per tick.
---------SS procs = 23%*50%*12*4 = 5.52 total procs.
total SS proc loss: 3.6 procs, 39.6%.

You can see a trend where the SS proc loss increases but at a decreasing rate. At very high targets, sqrt(x)/x should approach 0, and therefore the post-nerf proc chance should approach 8%. Therefore, the maximum amount of SS procs that could be lost would be 79% (though, at this point even with 79% reduction in procs you'd still be chain casting them forever).

Once we also factor in SS proc waste, it'll further reduce the proc loss from this change. The higher amount of procs you expect the higher your SS proc waste should be, and since post-nerf we expect less procs, we also expect less waste. So in practicality, this loss will be less than expected.

Therefore, if we say Starsurge constitutes 30% of our damage like we did in an earlier comparison, we would see a damage reduction of 6.96% two-target, 10.02% three-target, and 11.88% four-target not including SS proc waste. With SS proc waste variance we would expect these values to be reduced significantly (possibly by up to 25%), and on top of that we have the 10% buff to our nukes offsetting this.

So we'll see a buff to our single-target damage, possibly a buff for two-targets, maybe breaking even three-targets and four-targets. This is just a rough estimation, but it shows the nerf isn't as significant as you'd believe. It's definitely a nerf by itself, but counting the other two factors I referenced, it shouldn't be that bad overall.

Edit: a caveat is that I did not include the 4-piece in the target modifier. There was no clarification on the 4-piece being affected by the target nerf, so I didn't include it in the base assumptions. If it is indeed reduced as well, each target would see a bigger SS proc loss, and an infinite amount of targets would reduce SS proc chance to 0%.