Should i go Fury ?

[Darkfriend]

Ghost crawler said that there is nothing wrong in Arms.. Just that it is under represented! Unless you are saying that GC is retarded?

GC is retarded.

[Reinholder]

I've seen you present no evidence whatsoever to support your claim, and there is much evidence to prove otherwise. (Scaling, fights favoring fury, logs, sims-even though not as accurate as they could be they are still useful, ranks, etc.)

Selection bias would be playing a part in differences that you see in the log data. There's no doubt that arms is massively under represented in terms of logs (1 record for arm heroic lei shin 25m?). Xanthan was saying the difference between arms and fury in normal mode gear is not huge. Based on all the 'evidence' I'd suggest he's right.

When you look at the sims it's in the 5k dps range for 522 ilvl:
http://www.noxxic.com/wow/dps-rankings/realistic#522
http://www.noxxic.com/wow/dps-rankings/maximum#522

In t14h gear arms is marginally ahead of fury:
http://simulationcraft.org/530/Raid_T14H.html

In t15h gear it's around 15k on a patchwerk style fight:
http://simulationcraft.org/530/Raid_T15H.html

No one is saying that arms is better than fury in the higher level gear. In BiS gear fury is going to be stronger I don't think anyone is disagreeing with that. Reality is that the vast majority of people are not going to be in BiS gear and for normal mode, fully normal geared raiders, the difference between arms and fury is not huge. 5k is not a huge difference and depending on itemization this 5k difference may actually be smaller depending on drop luck.

[Darkfriend]

So your evidence is sim-c absolute numbers? That's like linking noxxic...

[Reinholder]

So your evidence is sim-c absolute numbers? That's like linking noxxic...

So...

I've seen you present no evidence whatsoever to support your claim, and there is much evidence to prove otherwise. (Scaling, fights favoring fury, logs, sims-even though not as accurate as they could be they are still useful, ranks, etc.)

So what exactly do you have that suggests otherwise?

[Darkfriend]

http://simulationcraft.org/530/Raid_T15H.html

honestly, you don't see MASSIVE issues with this? Such as the fact it has RET PALLIES about UH DKs? And Frost over UH?

First off, as I continually state, absolute numbers are inaccurate. Many classes this tier have modified rotations to some degree to improve DPS that sim-c does not have in its action priority list by default. This would include delaying CDs at start of a fight if feather procs, and hitting DR during a Reck and at 8+ feather stacks, or UH festerblight. Second, there are no patchwerk fights this tier which further reduces its accuracy.

Now the practical, real life reasons. There are no fights this tier which favor Arms cleave in any regard. We don't have a stoneguard where you can SS the entire fight, unless you consider cheesing on Meg and SSing the head that will heal a valid tactic... Even heroic council you have at least 3 of the adds together for a very large portion of the fight. Fury just has better AoE for this tier. Fury has better execute, and better burst.

Now a point irrelevant to DPS, but Arms is just boring as hell to play too. This may be part of the reason people don't play it as much, aside from DPS. Even in cases where frost is losing to UH by 20k+, people still play frost. It's at least an interesting spec. I've never played a spec as boring as 5.3 arms.

Selection bias is a fairly poor argument for the top ranks on WoL anyway, although a good one when looking at aggregate data. The simple reason for that is the same people tend to rank and compete for the top spots on any given fight that isn't determined heavily by RNG. I'm replacing around half of my ranks every single week with better ones, and losing ranks as other people beat me. But it tends to be the same people. As a result, the difference between two specs and the top 100 ranks on any given fight tends to indicate how well a class actually performs on that fight. Granted, it isn't exact, and yes there is SOME bias, but no where near what people seem to belief. Oh and let's not forget the fact that it's somewhat of a double bind. Either WoL is accurate enough, or the spec is so far behind no one serious plays it. The further you go into "Spec X is bad" the greater the selection bias becomes, as only the diehards, or people who love the spec remain to play it.

One of the smallest differences I've seen on logs was Jin'rok heroic, with "only" a 40k difference between the top spots, and all on the top 40 of fury being over 270k, with most of the Arms being under 220k.

Honestly, Arms is most definitely NOT only 10k behind.

[bigbad]

Saying the top ranks aren't heavily determined by RNG is silly just check out trinket procs for the top ranks from the few I checked all but one had high feather uptime and the one that didn't had really high gaze uptime 3 stacks for more then a minute. How can you say bias is a poor argument if there are clearly so much less arms logs, comparing the top40 logs Im sure there is a huge difference in gear, skill and lucky trinket procs. Don't you see MASSIVE issues with this?

[Xanthan]

Saying the top ranks aren't heavily determined by RNG is silly just check out trinket procs for the top ranks from the few I checked all but one had high feather uptime and the one that didn't had really high gaze uptime 3 stacks for more then a minute. How can you say bias is a poor argument if there are clearly so much less arms logs, comparing the top40 logs Im sure there is a huge difference in gear, skill and lucky trinket procs. Don't you see MASSIVE issues with this?

It's because he's an idiot. Apparently simulations are completely and total inaccurate, yet logs are a fair comparison when there's 50x more fury parses to compete for top spots, and of the top warriors playing the game, 99% are fury. Totally fair and balanced comparison. If every warrior went Arms one week, you'd see every single Arms record broken by huge amounts. Logs are far, far, far more inaccurate thanks to sampling bias than sims are.

[Darkfriend]

It's because he's an idiot. Apparently simulations are completely and total inaccurate, yet logs are a fair comparison when there's 50x more fury parses to compete for top spots, and of the top warriors playing the game, 99% are fury. Totally fair and balanced comparison. If every warrior went Arms one week, you'd see every single Arms record broken by huge amounts. Logs are far, far, far more inaccurate thanks to sampling bias than sims are.

I pointed out the logic and reasoning behind the differences in accuracies, yes people refuse to believe them. That is not my fault. There is a weight of evidence to show that arms is far more than 10k behind fury, yet people would rather think the spec is OK than accept they are wrong. It really is as simple as that.

I mean, look at the sim page for pete's sake. If that is accurate, DKs are one of the worse classes in the game for DPS right now, and ret pallies beat the.

Sims are massivly inaccurate for determining ABSOLUTE dps numbers. I'm already beating the listing in less than BiS gear. They are a comparative tool, not one to determine with precision exactly how every class will perform.

Not to mention no one will address the obvious fact that the greater the difference in DPS between arms and fury, the more people will play the greater DPS spec, which will also greatly contribute to what people incorrectly call sampling bias.

See, people would rather insult and continue to believe they are correct than argue logically. I've presented a rather large amount of information, reasoning, and explanation for why the difference exist, and people don't want to hear it.

Oh well, I can't fix stupid, I can only try and help bad.

[sjsctt]

But Dark, are you trying to tell us that monks and ferals CANNOT really beat locks???????? (mind literally explodes in amazement)

[Xanthan]

I pointed out the logic and reasoning behind the differences in accuracies, yes people refuse to believe them. That is not my fault. There is a weight of evidence to show that arms is far more than 10k behind fury, yet people would rather think the spec is OK than accept they are wrong. It really is as simple as that.

I mean, look at the sim page for pete's sake. If that is accurate, DKs are one of the worse classes in the game for DPS right now, and ret pallies beat the.

Sims are massivly inaccurate for determining ABSOLUTE dps numbers. I'm already beating the listing in less than BiS gear. They are a comparative tool, not one to determine with precision exactly how every class will perform.

No one in this thread is using sims to compare cross-class balance. Stop using inaccuracies in those comparisons to claim that it makes Arms vs Fury an inaccurate comparison (this is the definition of a straw man). Within a class, comparative simulations are very accurate, or else the tool would have no value at all. Not to mention, the warrior model is one of the better ones in Simc.

Of course you're beating the listing in less than BiS gear, congratulations. The T15H profiles don't use any item upgrades or the legendary cloak, which puts you well above "BiS" already. On top of that, it's an average number that you'd expect to beat a good 50% of the time with better RNG, meaning the max achievable numbers are well in excess of the listed values.

Not to mention no one will address the obvious fact that the greater the difference in DPS between arms and fury, the more people will play the greater DPS spec, which will also greatly contribute to what people incorrectly call sampling bias.

What in the actual fuck? This obvious fact is the fact that's been mentioned a dozen times already and the addressing of that fact is the focal point of half this discussion. How are you not understanding this? It is literally the definition of sampling bias. Please don't argue semantics on terms you clearly don't understand. It's an incredibly powerful bias that(on top of worse AoE) is the primary cause of Arms' poor showing in WoL as compared to its potential.

See, people would rather insult and continue to believe they are correct than argue logically. I've presented a rather large amount of information, reasoning, and explanation for why the difference exist, and people don't want to hear it.

Oh well, I can't fix stupid, I can only try and help bad.

Your information and reasoning is riddled with falsehoods and fallacies. You don't know what you're talking about.

[Darkfriend]

None of which disproves my claim that Arms is far more than 10k behind Fury.

[Reinholder]

None of which disproves my claim that Arms is far more than 10k behind Fury.

You've missed the point. Not even sure where the 10k figure was plucked from.

No one is saying that arms is better than fury in the higher level gear. In BiS gear fury is going to be stronger I don't think anyone is disagreeing with that. Reality is that the vast majority of people are not going to be in BiS gear and for normal mode, fully normal geared raiders, the difference between arms and fury is not huge.

The original post was from a guy that was in 507 ilvl gear with around 20% crit. He was gearing up via LFR. He's not in BiS and likely won't be for a while (if at all). For him, the difference between arms and fury would have been minimal at best. With 20% crit his arms numbers are likely to be more consistent while his fury numbers would be more heavily determined by how RNG pans out.

The advice you give someone that has yet to kill a normal ToT boss compared to someone with access to heroic thunderforged weapons is probably going to vary don't you agree? Unless you're saying that there is a massive difference between arms and fury for LFR geared players in which case I do not know what to say.

[Darkfriend]

You've missed the point. Not even sure where the 10k figure was plucked from.



The original post was from a guy that was in 507 ilvl gear with around 20% crit. He was gearing up via LFR. He's not in BiS and likely won't be for a while (if at all). For him, the difference between arms and fury would have been minimal at best. With 20% crit his arms numbers are likely to be more consistent while his fury numbers would be more heavily determined by how RNG pans out.

The advice you give someone that has yet to kill a normal ToT boss compared to someone with access to heroic thunderforged weapons is probably going to vary don't you agree? Unless you're saying that there is a massive difference between arms and fury for LFR geared players in which case I do not know what to say.

The point has always been that because Arms is useless at anything but very low gear levels, there is no point spending time to learn to play it over learning fury. Fury is simply so much better.

If you don't care about DPS, then nothing matters anyway.

[Reinholder]

The point has always been that because Arms is useless at anything but very low gear levels, there is no point spending time to learn to play it over learning fury. Fury is simply so much better.

Well the point was to respond to the original poster. The op had access to LFR gear, was sitting on 20% crit and hadn't killed a normal mode ToT boss. He's was a world away from BiS and with the amount of crit he had he was likely to pull similar, more consistent, and even potentially higher numbers in Arms than Fury. Again, he's not in BiS and likely won't be for a while (if at all). For him, the difference between arms and fury would be minimal at best, or are you suggesting otherwise?

Not everyone occupies a BiS world.

[Darkfriend]

Well the point was to respond to the original poster. The op had access to LFR gear, was sitting on 20% crit and hadn't killed a normal mode ToT boss. He's was a world away from BiS and with the amount of crit he had he was likely to pull similar, more consistent, and even potentially higher numbers in Arms than Fury. Again, he's not in BiS and likely won't be for a while (if at all). For him, the difference between arms and fury would be minimal at best, or are you suggesting otherwise?

Not everyone occupies a BiS world.

I think you're confused. Not everything in a thread is directed at one person only. Threads evolve. If you don't raid even normals it simply doesn't matter what spec you play. For raiding even heroics most of the time it doesn't matter. We don't use what matters as the only metric though, because that is incredibly subjective. So we use what is best. And the simple fact is that fury is better by a good bit than arms. Skill will matter, gear will matter, and a great arms warrior will probably beat a bad fury on fights, but that isn't a good metric. Should the OP go fury? Doesn't matter, never will for LFR. At that level you either play what is fun to you, or you have fun playing what is best, depending on how you enjoy playing games. Neither is subjectively wrong, but one is objectively right.

[bull100]

Arms will always be for PvP