Wow dying or people getting to high expectations?

[Aredyl]

Since one can not directly compare subscriptions vs active users (since NCSoft does not release that info), we can break down revenue and use that as a measure of health.

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I seen this argument and figured I'd break down the 1Q 2013 numbers for NCSoft (assuming that its sales are for all aspects of the games, not just box copies).

First, they generated ₩184,875 million in revenue, which translates to about $168 million USD (estimated based on the exchange rate during that period).

That would be split between Lineage (38%), GW2 (21%), Aion (16%), and other sales (25%).

Lineage would account for $63.9 mil, GW2 at $35.3 mil, Aion at $26.9 mil, and other games at $42 mil.

For the previous quarter (4Q2012), they generated around ₩284,423 million, or $237 million USD (estimated exchange rate at the end of that quarter).

That would be split between Lineage (24%), GW2 (45%), Aion (9%), and other sales (22%).

Lineage would account for $56.88 mil, GW2 $106.65 mil, Aion $21.33 mil, and others at $52.14 mil.

That would put GW2 losing about 67% of its reveune from 4Q 2012 to 1Q 2013. (Note: this is for worldwide sales. US sales would be only significantly more drastic. US sales dropped in half from 4Q 2012 to 1Q 2013)

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Wow's primary mode of revenue generation is from subscriptions. Its a bit easier to calculate that, as a 14% decrease in subscriptions translates closely to a 14% decrease in revenue. Also, for comparison purposes, 8.3 million subscribers for a 3 month period would generate around $348.5 million (at the $13.99 rate per month). At 9.6 million subscribers, that would be about $402.9 million for 4Q2013

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In a comparison in revenue, I would say that GW2 has dropped off considerably in this comparison. GW2 generated about 26.5% of the revenue that WoW did for 4Q2012, and dipped to about 10.1% to WoW's in 1Q2013. If anything, its odd to see Lineage to have more revenue generated in a quarter than GW2, especially this early in its life cycle.

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For me, I would think that WoW, even though it has lost 14% of its subscriber base, is the healthier MMO. GW2's drastic drop in revenue from the two quarters has me wondering if it has the staying power. If GW2 has another dip in revenue in the next quarter (especially in the NA and Euro market), I wonder if it'll beat out Lineage or Aion, let alone WoW.

[Piggo]

Do you really expect the sub numbers to grow? 8 years after the realease?

They've been using the same concept (leveling, pvp, pve) in all of the expansions so far, it's impossible to keep people playing for so much time without boredom/repetitiveness setting in. All in all, I would say MoP is the best expansion, the game has a lot of content, both for casuals and hardcore, the only thing missing is the 'new' factor.

[Philosopino]

If it wasn't for PvP i'd think the game is shit.

[Arbs]

Thing is you need to realize that WoW is almost 10 years old. Its incredible that it has even retained 8 mil subs. When it comes to gaming Age is also a factor people move onto other things and newer games for new gameplay experiences and for Some Newer graphics.

I don't think Everquest 2 is retaining the same amount of subs as 8 years ago, no game has climbed up in subs year after year after year. This just doesnt really happen. For example im sure Ultima Online and Star Wars Galaxies have no where near the subs they had during their early years of release.

I been playing since vanilla and ive taken breaks in each xpac when im burnt out but return when i feel the need to. I play other games like recently completed Bioshock Infinite an now im onto the Last of Us. Im still playing WoW at the same time.

But Im looking forward ot the next expansion, admittedly im addicted to fresh expansions and levelling up again on my beloved chars.

Moral of the story is (TLR) No game is expected to continue to grow after 8 years since release its just ridiculous to have that as an expectation.

I agree 100%, we all knew one day WoW would decline yet didn't know when that would be.

---------- Post added 2013-06-25 at 02:02 PM ----------

If you think that a 3M MMORPG is doing better then a 8,3M SUB BASED MMORPG, well have it your way.

Prbly way less than 3 Million, don't the massive hype that followed the game & refunds we were given.

---------- Post added 2013-06-25 at 02:05 PM ----------

Its in my first post.

So your basically trying to say your opinion is fact, which mutiple have said already that it is not fact and you have no proof to prove it is fact. Your opinion is an opinion thats it. Unless you can show us evidence than Case Closed.

---------- Post added 2013-06-25 at 02:08 PM ----------

you have no proof that it will be. Nice try.

If Anet continue on the way they the future looks bright for GW2. So much content comes streaming in each month, Tomorrow comes another new dungeon, they are promoting the game in e-sports, more weapons/armour sets, more abilities to use for you characters, more balances, you can see here how they have developed new free content each month here: new content. Which is very consistent with their promises.

Ya they have been promoting it in E-Sports for how long and it still no where close ?? Prbly gunna take SWTOR road with dem MLG contracts. *chuckle

---------- Post added 2013-06-25 at 02:12 PM ----------

Since one can not directly compare subscriptions vs active users (since NCSoft does not release that info), we can break down revenue and use that as a measure of health.

------

I seen this argument and figured I'd break down the 1Q 2013 numbers for NCSoft (assuming that its sales are for all aspects of the games, not just box copies).

First, they generated ₩184,875 million in revenue, which translates to about $168 million USD (estimated based on the exchange rate during that period).

That would be split between Lineage (38%), GW2 (21%), Aion (16%), and other sales (25%).

Lineage would account for $63.9 mil, GW2 at $35.3 mil, Aion at $26.9 mil, and other games at $42 mil.

For the previous quarter (4Q2012), they generated around ₩284,423 million, or $237 million USD (estimated exchange rate at the end of that quarter).

That would be split between Lineage (24%), GW2 (45%), Aion (9%), and other sales (22%).

Lineage would account for $56.88 mil, GW2 $106.65 mil, Aion $21.33 mil, and others at $52.14 mil.

That would put GW2 losing about 67% of its reveune from 4Q 2012 to 1Q 2013. (Note: this is for worldwide sales. US sales would be only significantly more drastic. US sales dropped in half from 4Q 2012 to 1Q 2013)

------

Wow's primary mode of revenue generation is from subscriptions. Its a bit easier to calculate that, as a 14% decrease in subscriptions translates closely to a 14% decrease in revenue. Also, for comparison purposes, 8.3 million subscribers for a 3 month period would generate around $348.5 million (at the $13.99 rate per month). At 9.6 million subscribers, that would be about $402.9 million for 4Q2013

------

In a comparison in revenue, I would say that GW2 has dropped off considerably in this comparison. GW2 generated about 26.5% of the revenue that WoW did for 4Q2012, and dipped to about 10.1% to WoW's in 1Q2013. If anything, its odd to see Lineage to have more revenue generated in a quarter than GW2, especially this early in its life cycle.

------

For me, I would think that WoW, even though it has lost 14% of its subscriber base, is the healthier MMO. GW2's drastic drop in revenue from the two quarters has me wondering if it has the staying power. If GW2 has another dip in revenue in the next quarter (especially in the NA and Euro market), I wonder if it'll beat out Lineage or Aion, let alone WoW.

There you have it folks, Solid numbers.

[Madruga]

wow is doing okay. Wow is dying yeah, but that is because of old age, and there are just so many MMO's out there. Lets say for fun there is 100 milions gamers.
If 9 milions play wow, before in time there was less to do, so more people played wow, now with many MMO's who have a nice following. Swtor, rift, guild wars, warhammer online, LoTR,DC-online, planetsite, warframe and god know how many other games there is, it is harder for some people to say " hey will play wow" since old gamers are getting tired of it, and A brand new gamer, Lets say the first one amoung his friend, What will he pick, A 7 year old game, who he have to pay for each mouth, OR the free newer nice looking free to play game

And don't forget the competition is not only among MMOs, which has become quite a competitive market on its own...

There is a stream of computer and console games outside of the MMO genre as well, coming at greater and greater speed. With digital sales and stuff, people have access to a vast library of games and they feel tempted to try everything.

It is no wonder MMOs had to become more acessible to the "casual". Less and less people are inclined to devote such a large ammount of time to a single game, and MMOs are perhaps the most time-consuming of all genres. Will people prefer to play the 10 latest games or keep on playing the same game over and over? More and more, people will prefer the 10 brand new games over the "outdated", massive, time-consuming behemoth.

[MrSerious]

There you have it folks, Solid numbers.

false numbers, not solid. Those laughable WoW subscriptions revenues are false, you can see the results from their annual report, its public knowledge. They generated 1.236billion from subscriptions, licensing, and other revenues last year. So already the numbers aren't adding up. A further thing to consider is that 1.236b is made up from ALL Activision Blizzard games including the Call of Duty series, Diablo, and every other game they have released. Take away all the revenue obtained by every other Activision Blizzard game excluding WoW and you aren't coming even close to the "solid numbers" you think they are.

So yeah not so solid, but keep believing that if you like.

[Chickat]

Not so much multiple tiers of content.. but really like some way to have the open world matter. When the entire game is off inside the dungeons/raids/instanced pvp areas it's not really feeling like much of a "World of" anything.

EDIT: granted I do some what miss going through series of progressive 'attunement' stuff, or whatever but that's mostly rose tinted goggles.

the main thing that always gets under my skin is sitting in a place like the goblin city in Azshara or the now flooded salt flats in thousand needles and knowing it's just going to be 'useful' to a character for about 40 minutes (assuming they don't over shoot it in dungeons)

just a bunch of wonkiness all around with the open world IMO.

Wow needs dynamic events like the northern barrens only more advanced, and something like instant adventure from rift. Group content that rewards rep with a faction like dailys.

---------- Post added 2013-06-25 at 11:04 PM ----------

false numbers, not solid. Those laughable WoW subscriptions revenues are false, you can see the results from their annual report, its public knowledge. They generated 1.236billion from subscriptions, licensing, and other revenues last year. So already the numbers aren't adding up. A further thing to consider is that 1.236b is made up from ALL Activision Blizzard games including the Call of Duty series, Diablo, and every other game they have released. Take away all the revenue obtained by every other Activision Blizzard game excluding WoW and you aren't coming even close to the "solid numbers" you think they are.

So yeah not so solid, but keep believing that if you like.

Wow probably still makes about 25% of that alone.

[mvaliz]

So you want content like black temple to still be valid?

WHile I don't think he means so much "raids" as is just content in general.

See, stuff like Darkmoon Isle, the Black Market and the Tillers Farm sound like places that could be counted as "endless content".

[KIRSTYBELLE]

Hi
I think any game stops being fun if you take it too seriously and turn it into a 2nd job.(one youre not being paid to do )
Im extremely casual, I take the game for what its worth, a past time and to me, World of Warcraft is as entertaining as before, if not better. Started playing since vanilla, went on year long breaks in between expansions. Perhaps the issue is much more on a personal level.

[Charge me Doctor]

People who think that they are too good for that game (even without any achievements like heroic progression or high arena ratings) leaves it. People who actually enjoy the game will continue playing. I don't see anything bad in this sub decrease

[Aredyl]

false numbers, not solid. Those laughable WoW subscriptions revenues are false, you can see the results from their annual report, its public knowledge. They generated 1.236billion from subscriptions, licensing, and other revenues last year. So already the numbers aren't adding up. A further thing to consider is that 1.236b is made up from ALL Activision Blizzard games including the Call of Duty series, Diablo, and every other game they have released. Take away all the revenue obtained by every other Activision Blizzard game excluding WoW and you aren't coming even close to the "solid numbers" you think they are.

So yeah not so solid, but keep believing that if you like.

Ok, lets take Black Ops 2 as an example here. According to VGCharts, it sold about 2.2 million units in that quarter. At a retail price of $60, that would be about $130 million worldwide in disc sales. Now lets say all of those players purchased a season pass (just to inflate the numbers for you) - which would bring the total closer to $240 million. Add in another 120k units for PC games during that period of time and you get about $253 million.

(On a side note - the 1Q of any year is usually the worst for video game sales, especially since most people do a bulk of shopping right before the quarter starts.)

For Diablo 3, VGCharts stopped tracking retail sales in July when it dipped under 40k units worldwide a week. But lets just say that all of 2013's retail sales were in the 1Q to compensate for online sales - which would be 155k units. At $50 a unit, that would be about $7.8 million.

Skylanders Giants sold about 675k units between the all the consoles for 2013. Even if we take 60% of those numbers (a high estimate) and at a $100 retail price (assuming they buy an additional figure or two), then you have about $40.5 million in sales.

Walking Dead Survival Instinct sold about 185k units in 1Q 2013, which translates to about $9.25 million.

SC2: HotS sold about 1.1 million units in its first 48 hours, with about 45% of those at retail (548k in its first week). 682k copies at retail during the first quarter, which would translate to about 1.5 million units total. At $60 a pop, that works out to about $90 million.

Black Ops Declassified sold about 750k units this year, equaling about $45 million.

And for lolz, lets just throw in all of the newest Family Guy title in there too - about 450k units sold since November. Another $27 million.

Madden 13 sold about 510k copies, bringing it up to about $31 million.

No other Blizzard/Activision games showed up in the top 75 game sales during the quarter, so lets add in another $50 million for other miscellaneous console games.

Add up all those games and you get around $550 million in sales worldwide.

Now add in Bizzard's subscription number I gave you earlier ($348.5) and you get $902.5 million. Its reasonable to assume that the other $300 million could easily be for licensing (tee shirts, cups, etc), digital item sales (pets, mounts), services (character transfers) and other miscellaneous revenue that may have overlooked.