WoW's sub decline: Mirroring the gaming industry as a whole?

[Deleted]

Rift went F2P. Swtor went F2P. Every new MMO is either reconsidering their subscription model or has already done so. The previous years EQ2, Lotro, Tera, etc. They can't turn a profit using the sub model so they switch to F2P. I would imagine that Titan's model will be going F2P as well.

I was picking Benbos up on his claim over the past 2 years... and in the past 2 years most have LAUNCHED as F2P or B2P. Therefore accusations of them failing are totally unwarranted.

GW2 for example is still growing and its been out almost a year now.

You can tell the difference between the quality and content of F2P games compared to subs though.

really?

Ive played all the other MMOs out there and quality isnt much different. Theyve simply invested in different parts of their MMO. Some dont have raiding, others invested in massive PvP worlds. Others invested heavily in story and questing.

This idea of quality is totally subjective, afterall Wow looks the most out of date graphically than all of them yet that doesnt effect their subs much.

Basically there isnt much difference in quality between F2P or B2P games to Wow or Eve, who are pretty much the only paid subs MMO games out there right now.

---------- Post added 2013-06-26 at 04:36 PM ----------

"Video game retail sales declined for the twelfth consecutive month in November 2012. According to market research firm NPD, U.S video game store sales slumped 11.0% year over year to $2.25 billion in the month of November."

I shall help u with your statement by highlighting the words which screw over your point.

Everyone knows that 'over the counter' games sales has dropped... the truth is that digital download sales has risen significantly. Digital download is taking over the entire market. Therefore u need to be reading articles which include ALL games media sales for this argument.

[BenBos]

I was picking Benbos up on his claim over the past 2 years... and in the past 2 years most have LAUNCHED as F2P or B2P. Therefore accusations of them failing are totally unwarranted.

GW2 for example is still growing and its been out almost a year now.



really?

Ive played all the other MMOs out there and quality isnt much different. Theyve simply invested in different parts of their MMO. Some dont have raiding, others invested in massive PvP worlds. Others invested heavily in story and questing.

This idea of quality is totally subjective, afterall Wow looks the most out of date graphically than all of them yet that doesnt effect their subs much.

Basically there isnt much difference in quality between F2P or B2P games to Wow or Eve, who are pretty much the only paid subs MMO games out there right now.

---------- Post added 2013-06-26 at 04:36 PM ----------



I shall help u with your statement by highlighting the words which screw over your point.

Everyone knows that 'over the counter' games sales has dropped... the truth is that digital download sales has risen significantly. Digital download is taking over the entire market. Therefore u need to be reading articles which include ALL games media sales for this argument.

First GW2 DROPPED in the last 6 months both in REVENUE for NCSoft (going from 25% of income for that group to ... 10%).

And guess what game is the money maker in that group now ...? yep the Korean SUB based game of Lineage 2, a 10 year old game.

And both in Xfire stats (compared to WOW) , BIG time even.

if ANYTHING GW2 needs to prove is that it lost activity compared to WOW over the last 6 months MASSIVELY on Xfire.


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Loading screens instead of a mount system, loading screen instead of an open world, loading screen as the only way of going somewhere.

How much proof of subpar quality do you want in GW2...?

[mvaliz]

First GW2 DROPPED in the last 6 months both in REVENUE for NCSoft (going from 25% of income for that group to ... 10%).

Son, Guild Wars 2 has a completely different financial model than Blizz... They made their profit via game-box sales alone, not subscriptions because there aren't any. The vanity items you could buy in the E-Shop were icing on the cake. That's like sighting Skyrim profits having fallen after 6 months... that's because the release curve has peaked - it has nothing to do with game longevity. :P

The measure of a game isn't based soley on the SIZE of the entire corporate portfolio, you know. :P the GW2 devs have made back more of a profit to fund GW3 and a GW2 expansion because (gasp!) it's DESIGNED to be funded by box-sales alone.

NCSoft makes a hell of a lot more than just Guild Wars 2. In the same respect, Acti/Blizz's profits come from a HELL of a lot more than WoW - namely Skylanders and Call of Duty for starters. :P

[Pann]

First GW2 DROPPED in the last 6 months both in REVENUE for NCSoft (going from 25% of income for that group to ... 10%).

And guess what game is the money maker in that group now ...? yep the Korean SUB based game of Lineage 2, a 10 year old game.

And both in Xfire stats (compared to WOW) , BIG time even.

if ANYTHING GW2 needs to prove is that it lost activity compared to WOW over the last 6 months MASSIVELY on Xfire.


----
Loading screens instead of a mount system, loading screen instead of an open world, loading screen as the only way of going somewhere.

How much proof of subpar quality do you want in GW2...?

Do you honestly have such a limited understanding of the topic being discussed that you believe this or are you trying to distort the figures to suit you argument?

The profit from GW2 is not based a constant revenue stream like a subscription based game by saying that GW2's revenue has dropped in the last six months all you are saying is that is now selling less than when it was first released which is probably the case for 99% of games ever released.

[BenBos]

Son, Guild Wars 2 has a completely different financial model than Blizz... They made their profit via game-box sales alone, not subscriptions because there aren't any. The vanity items you could buy in the E-Shop were icing on the cake. That's like sighting Skyrim profits having fallen after 6 months... that's because the release curve has peaked - it has nothing to do with game longevity. :P

The measure of a game isn't based soley on the SIZE of the entire corporate portfolio, you know. :P the GW2 devs have made back more of a profit to fund GW3 and a GW2 expansion because (gasp!) it's DESIGNED to be funded by box-sales alone.

NCSoft makes a hell of a lot more than just Guild Wars 2. In the same respect, Acti/Blizz's profits come from a HELL of a lot more than WoW - namely Skylanders and Call of Duty for starters. :P

LOL.

So 6 months after launch, the BIGGEST money maker of the NCSoft group is ... Lineage 2 ... a lone sub based MMORPG... that's ... 10 years old ...

Which proves my points all together (but you left that out instead of citing a first sentence).

What MORE proof do you want B2P is not a long term good solution for open ended MMORPG world play ?

Let's do the calculations "son".

GW2 sold as 60 dollars in Retail ... that's around 25 dollars revenue for the NCSoft group (profits go to distribution and retail). At 3 million copies that's 75 million dollars until ... the next expansion...that will not even launch in 2013...



A sub based game makes at least 10 fold that kind of money if successful. As the latest Blizzard stock report showed : in 3 months time ... 275 milion dollars GAAP revenue (btw GAAP is the ONLY official bookkeeping standard in the US).

that's more than 1 billion EACH year...for 6 years consecutive...

Anyone saying F2P or B2P is an alternative in MMORPG land: nope, it is just good to survive 3 or 4 years, nothing else.

MMORPG's with REAL open world play to adventure endlessly are simply too costly to be supported by F2P or B2P.

[Pann]

LOL.

So 6 months after launch, the BIGGEST money maker of the NCSoft group is ... Lineage 2 ... a lone sub based MMORPG... that's ... 10 years old ...

Which proves my points all together (but you left that out instead of citing a first sentence).

What MORE proof do you want B2P is not a long term good solution for open ended MMORPG world play ?

Let's do the calculations "son".

GW2 sold as 60 dollars in Retail ... that's around 25 dollars revenue for the NCSoft group (profits go to distribution and retail). At 3 million copies that's 75 million dollars until ... the next expansion...that will not even launch in 2013...



A sub based game makes at least 10 fold that kind of money if successful. As the latest Blizzard stock report showed : in 3 months time ... 275 milion dollars GAAP revenue (btw GAAP is the ONLY official bookkeeping standard in the US).

that's more than 1 billion EACH year...for 6 years consecutive...

Anyone saying F2P or B2P is an alternative in MMORPG land: nope, it is just good to survive 3 or 4 years, nothing else.

MMORPG's with REAL open world play to adventure endlessly are simply too costly to be supported by F2P or B2P.

What does any of this have to do with GW2's payment model?

It appears that you do not understand the difference between profit and revenue. NC Soft would have to using a fleet of Rolls Royces to deliver GW2 to stores for retail and distribution to account for such a high cost.

[The Stormbringer]

Less people play games because there is less money is the world.

We're in the middle of an economic crisis, and things like being able to afford the simple joys like new games or movies is becoming less in this day and age.

How does that work? How do we have less money in the world? Doesn't money just... trade hands? As I understand it, money doesn't disappear, its simply traded for goods and services, right? Not to mention that we keep printing more of the damn stuff.

So the real question is, where is all that supposedly 'missing' money? Who has been grabbing up ridiculous amounts of money and not putting it back into the economy? I'm fairly certain the answer is 'the ridiculously super mega rich', but I honestly don't know.

EDIT: Actually, there's a video on the net called 'Wealth inequality in America' that says that's pretty much it. The tiniest fraction of the population own the most money, while a massive percentage own very little. I'm guessing it's probably similar in other countries. Blame ridiculously rich a-holes who horde their cash rather than spending it and infusing life back into the economy that got them so filthy rich in the first place.

[Flower Milk]

Your chart only shows the US.

The thing is, WoW has a Chinese market, and the Chinese online gaming market is one of the largest out there.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Online_gaming_in_China

China is now the world's largest online gaming market, contributing one-third to the global revenue in this sector in 2009, or 56 percent of the Asia Pacific total.

Now, if Blizzard claims that most of the sub losses "come from Asia", then that is extremely bad news for them, because that is a lot of people to be jumping ship and a very large market to be doing badly in. Almost half of the WoW subscribers are supposedly in China according to this infograph from Wrath:
http://i.imgur.com/ILDaPam.png

So whatever it is they are doing now, or whatever is going on with China, if they don't want to lose almost half of their subscribers, then they need to be paying attention to that market better. Or they can choose not to and continue on down the road they are going on. Either way, those are the numbers.

[Doktor Faustus]

Old game that is running out of steam.

WoW used to to awesome, but how many are now playing it out of habit.

Fan bois will always blindly defend products they like, but the moderate view of a player who has played for several years, with a couple of breaks, is that I only mostly play it because I am so familiar with it.

[mvaliz]

LOL.

So 6 months after launch, the BIGGEST money maker of the NCSoft group is ... Lineage 2 ... a lone sub based MMORPG... that's ... 10 years old ...

Which proves my points all together (but you left that out instead of citing a first sentence).

...did you even bother reading anything I wrote?

GW2 is buy-to-play. Lineage 2 is Subscription play. One has long-term profits, the other does not - but it doesn't matter as GW2 is DESIGNED to not be a perpetual cash-cow. It's designed to be a one-box purchase and that's where they make their money. up front. Not dragged out through the months.

How you could compare a subscription-based game to a Buy-to-play game in quality based on perpetual profits is just being flat out ignorant and blatantly using misinformation, insinuating that GW2 was somehow NOT successful because it doesn't bring in the profit anymore. Dude, it's DESIGNED that way! The same damn way Call of Duty, Skyrim, Metal Gear and countless other games have made profit since the days of the Atari 2600 - based on BOX SALES ALONE.

It's designed that way. Period. GW2 won because they're not playing the "who's got the biggest wallet" game... they do things like BUDGETS and plan accordingly. They more than made a profit based on BOX SALES ALONE. You do realize that even Blizz didn't originally want WoW to go Sub-based, but only had to in the begining in order to subsidize server costs - right?

[Synbaby]

Today I learned that LFR is causing the gaming industry to crash.

The more you know.... lol

[Deleted]

Wow should stay subscription based. 13 euro a month is nothing, and I believe the quality is better that way.

[Deleted]

Loading screens instead of a mount system, loading screen instead of an open world, loading screen as the only way of going somewhere.

How much proof of subpar quality do you want in GW2...?

LMAO

Well done... your OPINION of GW2 compared to other MMOS means jackshit. The facts are that other MMOs demonstrate far more quality than Wow in many areas... Fanboys like u refuse to see it. Thankfully us gamers who play many other games can appreciate quality when we see it.

The facts are that other MMOs have plenty of great features which are better than Wow, and Wow has plenty of features which are better than them...

And i loved the way u totally ignored me taking apart your financial quote... ALL of your argument was based around 'retail video games sales' which has absolutely nothing to do with what this thread is discussing.

Dude u really dont understand the original query and u certainly dont understand financial business information enough to post it in this thread.

[Orange Joe]

CRZ ? You mean the basis for the supreme new virtual realm play. You have to be kidding you still see idiots who are against this brand new and marvellous open world cross realm technique.

The days that hating trolls could complain about CRZ on forums is OVER: for good since the announcement of virtual realms.

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And "filthy" casuals.

dear Sir ... How do you think you can obtain millions and millions of paying players ? By going hardcore LOL ...

Without the casual market WOW would have around 500 K players MAX.

Lighten up guy. It was clear his post was a joke.

[Huehuecoyotl]

...did you even bother reading anything I wrote?

this is BenBos you are talking to. he doesnt read anything you write, at least not properly. his standard practice is to pick up a couple of sentences, deliberately misunderstand them, then repeat the same tired lines he uses every time, in every thread. and even when you do pick apart his points to prove he is completely, hilariously wrong, he just ignores you and carries on repeating the same nonsense.

nice to see his old "GW2 doesnt even have mounts!" line making a return. thought that one had been put out to pasture.

[Mazinger-Z]

The measure of a game isn't based soley on the SIZE of the entire corporate portfolio, you know. :P the GW2 devs have made back more of a profit to fund GW3 and a GW2 expansion because (gasp!) it's DESIGNED to be funded by box-sales alone.

And it's a shit game. It's got all the KMMO markings of having a very pretty coat over a very shallow game. It relies on gambling to make any substantial money.

---------- Post added 2013-06-26 at 06:29 PM ----------

Now, if Blizzard claims that most of the sub losses "come from Asia", then that is extremely bad news for them, because that is a lot of people to be jumping ship and a very large market to be doing badly in. Almost half of the WoW subscribers are supposedly in China according to this infograph from Wrath:
http://i.imgur.com/ILDaPam.png

Age of Wushu came out around that time (Age of Wulin in China) and it's a Chinese game developed by Chinese developers. The Chinese people are massive nationalists, the game is pretty faithful to the culture of wuxia, so it is probably going to draw a majority of that crowd, despite being not the best game in the world.

[KorbenDallasMultipass]

And it's a shit game. It's got all the KMMO markings of having a very pretty coat over a very shallow game. It relies on gambling to make any substantial money.

---------- Post added 2013-06-26 at 06:29 PM ----------



Age of Wushu came out around that time (Age of Wulin in China) and it's a Chinese game developed by Chinese developers. The Chinese people are massive nationalists, the game is pretty faithful to the culture of wuxia, so it is probably going to draw a majority of that crowd, despite being not the best game in the world.

Whaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaat?

When you BUY A BOX FOR A GAME, you GIVE THEM MONEY. That MONEY is called PROFIT.

If I but CHEESE from you, I give you 5$ and you give me some CHEESE that cost you maybe 1$ to make. I do not have to pay you monthly installments of 1$ for you to have made profit from that cheese.

GW2 has at least 2 million players. 2 000 000 x 60$ = 120 000 000$ (ONE HUNDRED TWENTY MILLION $$$$) - Production Costs.

Now the only game I know to have cost over 100 mil to make was TOR, which apparently was a cataclysmic disaster in terms of financial costs to make a game.

[Mazinger-Z]

GW2 has at least 2 million players. 2 000 000 x 60$ = 120 000 000$ (ONE HUNDRED TWENTY MILLION $$$$) - Production Costs.

It has over 2 million sales, potentially up to 3. But GW2 does not count active accounts, just revenue from things like box sales and the gem store (check their earnings reports). Since they have no active subscriptions, they are not called upon to account for the number of active accounts.

Their model does not look at the player-base as individual 15 dollar chits, but as a sack of grapes. They squeeze that sack every 2-4 weeks with item shop releases and some grapes provide more juice than others, and while they have the ability to check those metrics, they really only care about which 'squeezes' yield them more juice.

And no one knows what it costs to produce GW2 or maintain it... the earnings reports are actually pretty sparse in that regard. Instead, it's all summed up under operating costs.

[orioxez]

You got it all wrong, it's the Pandaren, flying mounts and LFR.

And the 15 mins. hearthstone.

in all seriousness flying mounts are the biggest mistake blizzard ever made with regards to wow.

[KorbenDallasMultipass]

Why's that? I personally didn't enjoy having to fight everything everywhere in pre-BC, for me flying mounts were a natural successor to ground mounts, the only mistake is not having made interesting aerial combat for them to respect their Gryphon Rider Warcraft 2 roots.

Doing Isle of Thunder dailies reminds me how much I hated ground mounts only, not to mention leveling any alts in pandaria after you've experienced the lore and environments once on your main.

At least in WOTLK they had the decency to give us those tomes to learn to fly at 80.