Predict the sub number at which MoP will end

[igame]

After the new expansion is announced at Blizzcon, it will be at least 6 months before it goes live. In the meantime, people are steadily completing SoO or just giving up and moving on. Factor in that the next generation of consoles and some amazing game titles are coming out over the holiday season, many people will jump ship and how many return depends on what comes out of Blizzcon.

However, given all this, how many subs do you think WoW will have left by the end of MoP? Given that as of last earning call WoW was at 7.7 million subs.

I think WoW will go below 6 million.

[bals]

i think 6-6.5 mil

[Pebrocks The Warlock]

That depends on the mysterious patch 5.5 and it's content.

Sadly without a raid it won't bring in much.

OT: Anywhere from above 7.7 million to below 7.7 million.

[McNeil]

The current subs are 7.1 million right? Since I don't think the sub drop will be that big as of yet (because of 5.4 and all), I voted 6-7 million

[Deleted]

Well Ill be playing on my PS4. AC4, Infamous and Destiny in particular im looking forward to. So thats already one sub less.

Tht being said, I am totally looking forward to te next expac. As long as it's TDB, I know it's gonna be awesome.

I predict 6Mil btw, shooting up to 9.5Mil on next expac release.

[Galaddriel]

4-5 million based on the running 65k per week loss in the west alone.

[McNeil]

When do we hear the new sub number anyway?

[melodramocracy]

5 million and change

[Ryme]

Depends how long it takes to end, between 5-7 is a near certainty, if it takes too long to get X5 out, closer to 5, if not then closer to 7.

[Deleted]

I guess something between 5.7 and 6.4 million.

[Lor_Azut]

6.4-6.8mil

[Deleted]

1-20 million

[Thetruth1400]

It depends when the quarters are really since we won't have an accurate data pool to draw from unless it happens to be released just after a quarter ends. If it's released in March, June, September, or December, we won't have accurate numbers of how MoP ended and the new expansion begins.

My guess though, is the last quarter before the next expansion is going to be low. The last known report we have from WoW is June 30th of this year, where the subs were a low of 7.7 million. We still are waiting on Q3 results, which should be out soon. 5.4 may have blocked the loss from being insanely large as it was released on September 10 2013, and the end of Q3 is September 30, 2013.

That being said, I think the Q3 results are going to be close to 7 million even. Q4 results, I think will see a drop down to 6.5 million due to the holidays, and Q1 of 2014, I expect 5 million - 5.75 million at most.

After that, I expect the next expansion to drop around mid June of 2014, to keep the Q2 2014 numbers from being complete garbage. I expect them to go up to 6 million as players buy the expansion and return. Follow that with a Q3 result of 5 million tops after the next expansion fails again to bring in new customers, bring back old customers, or keep existing customers. You can attribute those numbers to failure in the creative direction of the game, no innovation, and the ease of the content and resulting burnout / nothing to do ness.

[Slowpoke is a Gamer]

About 6.7M

[hpa]

around 6.5 Million i would say.

[Polybius]

1-20 million

Are the waters cloudy again? jk

on-topic: 5.5-6 million subscribers

[PrairieChicken]

Current : 7.7
Next : 7.4
Next : 6.7
Next : 6.0
Then New Xpac comes out

[Toiran]

Ahh another of these threads.

6-7 Million, possibly closer to 7.2/3/4

All depends on the next patch and Blizzcon and any announcement dates.

[Alewen]

My prediction is, no expansion will be announced. My prediction is the "World of Warcraft: What's Next?" Panel, will touch on the subscription losses, and discuss the soon to shift transition to free to play, with a few more timeless isle content patches. Subscription losses I believe will continue to plummet like a sack of bricks, and will drop well below 4 million. Going free to play is going to be the last ditch effort to save a game that is failing due to many poor design decisions, and I do not believe it will survive to see 2015.

[Deleted]

My prediction is, no expansion will be announced. My prediction is the "World of Warcraft: What's Next?" Panel, will touch on the subscription losses, and discuss the soon to shift transition to free to play, with a few more timeless isle content patches. Subscription losses I believe will continue to plummet like a sack of bricks, and will drop well below 4 million. Going free to play is going to be the last ditch effort to save a game that is failing due to many poor design decisions, and I do not believe it will survive to see 2015.

I also predict the sky will fall.

5.4 brought a lot of activity in EU/US, but I have no idea about china. Still, I'm going to say above 7 million.