3rd Quarter Sub Loss Predictions!

[Deleted]

Oh how so? You seem rather upset that I pointed out this site is not devoted just to wow. I might be wasting my life but at least I am not wasting it getting super emotional when someone dares say anything remotely negative about a game or criticizes a game

To be fair i have barley seen anything else but Blizzard news here since i started visiting this site.

[Pantelija]

Why are you so paranoid?

4.0.6 caused many players to leave the game, people whined on forums but Blizzard said that sub numbers are fine

Few months later they started doing damage control by saying subs were slowly dropping down due to some funny reason and they kept repeating that damage control for the next year.

Blizzard has lied in the past and will continue lying again, players/customers should take anything Blizzard says with a grain of salt.

[Pebrocks The Warlock]

Blizzard has lied in the past and will continue lying again, players/customers should take anything Blizzard says with a grain of salt.

They are legally not allowed to lie about the subs during the Quarterly report. So I'll ask again, why are you paranoid? It's not healthy.

[dope_danny]

I'm guessing big since this is the 5.3 period and for most current players it wasnt enough content to stay subbed if they werent a raider and for those being incentivised to "come back" a weekly grind in the barrens for one piece of gear per week wasn't exactly a "oh yeah, this is the kind of gameplay i want to subscribe for!" content either.
Personally i think its going to be the biggest wow sub drop there has ever been and possible will ever be as the timeless isle seems to hint that blizzard is adding such things as 'sub buffers' where none raiders have "fun grinds" to give them a reason to keep playing after they've seen the final raid and done all the quests to ensure less massive drop offs in future.
5.3 was a huge mis step in this which i think was just an experiment to test dynamic events for the next expansion and players interactions with them. I think it was a costly one and a lot of people just looked at now and the 5.2 launch and are just finding no reason to keep paying for new content that surmounted to "heres 5 quests, now grind barrens mobs" as content lasting a quarter of a year.
We live in a period where Wow isn't the only game in town any more and there are more cost effective ways to spend your free time enjoying online games, so as such things that might be minor misteps back when WoW was the unstoppable juggernaut that had most subscribers every month is a lot more of a harmful stumble when in a current "less subscribers every week" situation like WoW appears to be in its current market saturation user decline.

People are just more frugal with their gaming money in this modern economic climate and theres so many more options, i honestly cannot see battlefield barrens as being anything but another put off for subscribers that dont have a raid team or something keeping them regularly playing.

[Airwaves]

Hey Jaylock! Have not seen this thread since last quarter. Always trying to start a shit storm.

[Simca]

Sub counts = revenue = Development = content and discussions made.

There are a LOT of flaws with this popular logic from an actual business perspective.

For starters: businesses focus more intensely on X game (this actually doesn't apply as much to Blizzard but let's pretend it does) when it does well. World of Warcraft is making Blizzard far more money than any other game they have ever produced. Now, let's pretend subscriptions decrease at a parabolic rate matching the current situation, giving the game a long remaining life span but smaller and smaller profit margins. The correct business decision in this case for Blizzard is still to focus on World of Warcraft for the considerable future. Why? It generates astronomically more money than every other franchise they have (probably combined) in such a way that further funding for World of Warcraft is STILL the best Return On Investment possible for their profits.

Well, technically, if Blizzard was mega concerned with profits, they'd probably just release Vanilla servers and simultaneously launch a shit version of "WoW2" and rake in millions, but they have limits as to how far they will milk their products.

Anyway, I'm not even a business major and I can see why "sub counts = development" would be one of the worst business strategies possible when the game in question is still generating metric buttloads of cash.

[Deleted]

Oh how so? You seem rather upset that I pointed out this site is not devoted just to wow. I might be wasting my life but at least I am not wasting it getting super emotional when someone dares say anything remotely negative about a game or criticizes a game

Cant even take your so called "criticism" serious just by looking at your signature....

[BenBos]

Anyone predicting no losses must have their heads in the .

Hearthstone.

This little gem will have more worldwide positive impact than any WoW hate boy can even imagine.

What a digital card game ? It is the cult vibe ...and subscriptions were always about external industry factors, never about content.

It will launch Q4 and I predict player numbers will go up in 2014, since China only will get F2P. Pay by the minute (time card) is no longer feasable over there.

[SoundOfGuns]

Why do we care? Sub losses aren't gonna be bad enough to make WoW go F2P for a long time to come. So again, Why are these boards so obsessed with how many people are/aren't playing a game?

Krazy beat me to everything, stupid lurker having to make an account

Because a certain type of People (And the OP is one of them) just hate the Game needlessly because they stopped playing it, and see it as unbeliavable that others don't share their hatred and actually still like the game. So, they jump around the Fire like Rumpelstiltskin whenever they can have a confirmation that their decision could be right maybe, because they in truth kind of want to play as well, and are afraid of giving in and admitting things may not be as bad as they tried to make everyone believe.

[Theronus]

My guess is that subs are down to 7.0 - 7.2 Million. Would not be suprised if it goes below 7.

That is my guess as well, a little over 7 million while being optimistic.

Edit:

Why can't people just respond to the topic? Why everything has to be a war?

[Abysal]

I don't really see much point in predicting quarter by quarter but I see it bottoming out between 5.5m and 6.5m before the next expansion comes out and then rising to around 8m when 6.0 comes out.

[melodramocracy]

subscriptions were always about external industry factors, never about content.

Keep telling yourself that.

[BenBos]

I don't really see much point in predicting quarter by quarter but I see it bottoming out between 5.5m and 6.5m before the next expansion comes out and then rising to around 8m when 6.0 comes out.

Likewise. But add these 5 other rather important aspects for 2014:

- Hearthstone will bring WoW on the cult front massively.
- The movie and all of its (pre) launch hype.
- The ever populated open worlds with linked servers.
- The new expansion
- China giving up on pay per minute and going F2P over there.

8 million is a too low estimate at the end of 2014.

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Keep telling yourself that.

The complete industry going free to play says "High"

[Jtbrig7390]

I personally say at lease 600k but at most 1.2million.

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Hearthstone.

This little gem will have more worldwide positive impact than any WoW hate boy can even imagine.

What a digital card game ? It is the cult vibe ...and subscriptions were always about external industry factors, never about content.

It will launch Q4 and I predict player numbers will go up in 2014, since China only will get F2P. Pay by the minute (time card) is no longer feasable over there.

If you mean F2p wow in china and no where else there will be a major shit storm in EU/US if China go's f2p and it dose not anywhere else.

Many people will be pissed they got to pay while china gets it for free and I personally would find that to be a shitty move on blizzards part. A big smack in the face to all EU/US players with them saying "Because we get more money from you you must pay"

[Pantelija]

They are legally not allowed to lie about the subs during the Quarterly report. So I'll ask again, why are you paranoid? It's not healthy.

Milions of people suffering from paranoia or Blizzard lying and you choose Blizzard lying?

Seems legit

[Jtbrig7390]

Milions of people suffering from paranoia or Blizzard lying and you choose Blizzard lying?

Seems legit

But what he said is true by law blizzard can not lie about there Quarterly reports.

[Mawnix]

Milions of people suffering from paranoia or Blizzard lying and you choose Blizzard lying?

Seems legit

I don't understand why so many people have conspiracy theories when it comes to Blizzard.

They're a company like everyone else.

They're not fucking Satan. Seriously, lighten up.

[Buxton McGraff]

I played religiously for 8 years and loved the game.
Three months ago I quit because I was insanely bored, and I've had no desire to return.
If somebody as obsessed with the game as me could be bored enough to quit, I'm guessing the sub loss is going to be pretty severe.

[hrugner]

Likewise. But add these 5 other rather important aspects for 2014:

- Hearthstone will bring WoW on the cult front massively.
- The movie and all of its (pre) launch hype.
- The ever populated open worlds with linked servers.
- The new expansion
- China giving up on pay per minute and going F2P over there.

8 million is a too low estimate at the end of 2014.

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The complete industry going free to play says "High"

-I don't think hearthstone is as big as deal as you're making it out to be. It isn't the asynchronous collectible card game style that does so well at the moment, it's much more like magic online. I'm pretty sure it's still a thing.

-the movie? Marvel Heroes must be making a killing then.

-the only people who will know about open worlds this still play.

-I agree, the expansion should be a huge boost

-China is going f2p for WoW? Where did you hear this? It's always been easy to play WoW as if you're from a different location, I don't think opening up one region to free to play would have a positive impact on subs or how people felt about the game. If this is true, it's either foolish or a brilliant play to make people demand WoW go free to play.

[xanzul]

Its that time of year again, soon the 3rd Quarter will be over, and we will have another conference call with the latest sub losses released. What are your predictions for sub losses this quarter?

Here is the historical quarterly sub losses since Q1 2012:

Q1 2012: 0 Sub Loss - Remained Steady
Q2 2012: 1.1 Million Subs Lost
Q3 2012: 900,000 Subs Gained; Up to just at 10 Million Subscriptions
Q4 2012: 100,000 Subs Lost
Q1 2013: 1.3 Million Subs Lost
Q2 2013: 600,000 Subs Lost; Down to 7.7 Million Subscriptions

Q3 2012: <Your Predicted Sub Loss Figure>


My prediction is about 200,000 Subs lost, but could be more. I am taking the conservative side in my predictions. What are your predictions?

Why do you even care? You don't even play anymore. My prediction is regardless of how many subscribers are left, the haters are going to herald it as the death of Wow as always.

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November? that's really far away still. Why would people make a thread for something that's 2 months away, That's pretty useless.
Better just lock this.

Anyways, I expect alot of subscribers in 5.4 atleast 500k to 1M, so i won't expect to much off a lose really.

I think the OP has run out of ways to bash Wow so he is resorting to the tired old "wow is dying" nonsense. By all rights the mods should close this if only due to the fact we are no where near a shareholders call and literally just had one recently. Unfortunately they tend to leave Wow bashing threads up until it is blatantly obvious what type of thread it is especially those created by the OP. Rather sad really.

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Sorry I am on mmo-Champion not Wow-Champion

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Pretty much and why would he make a thread 2 mo away, it's kinda what he does trys to make threads to cause a shit storm

1. Mmo-champion is an official Wow fansite.
2. You are in the Wow sub forum so it doesn't even matter what the name of this site is.
3. If you are here to discuss other games they give you forum filters for a reason.

Nice try though.